What makes you say they aren't committed?

RoryF1 said:

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It's something that I've heard in the office. I don't know if it's true but Noble doesn't seem too committed to the Basin. It also seems ready for a takeover.

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Curious as to why you think that.

i would say that APC is ripe to be looking to buy someone out there. I would think it would be a midland based company with delaware focus + Midland Basin assets with the big APC migration and office moving out there.

Someone with a nice office so they dont have to stay in ClayDesta long ... nice green glass buildings?

A $26B taking over a $17B company? That sounds like an awful big bite. I don't have any inside information as to any of this, but I would think APC would be better off buying up smaller guys like CWEI (already acquired by Noble), RSPP, FANG, PE, and the like.

TxAg20 said:

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A $26B taking over a $17B company? That sounds like an awful big bite. I don't have any inside information as to any of this, but I would think APC would be better off buying up smaller guys like CWEI (already acquired by Noble), RSPP, FANG, PE, and the like.

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Agreed, I would look for them to buy someone with more overlapping acreage in Loving/Reeves. WPX or Energen maybe. RSP might fit the bill as well. Cimarex would be an interesting option for APC as they have some overlap in Reeves and that would get APC into the STACK. Or maybe just buying BHP's Delaware acreage.

I'be been thinking Noble would buy Centennial eventually.

i know, i have no insight, it just seems with the office move and particulalrly rumbles from APC Houston that a midland delaware co would be in the cross hairs. The COG idea was really just thinking about acreage across the entire basin. Should be interesting to watch.

I see APC as the buyout candidate not the buyer. EOG needs to make a run at them. Their position has been horribly mismanaged to date.

2.4 Mill Crude draw
500k Gasoline draw
1 Mill Distillate build

At least moving in the right direction. Might be able to pull off seeing 45 today at some point. Don't think it will hold long but kept away from 30s so thats good for now.

Boss sock

Username checks out

(message self destructed)

Also side note CNBC is about to have the CEO of Cigna on (who is one of the Aggie CEOs) for anyone interested.

Rory and NEC1 N6.040...

You BOTH better get off Texags and get back to work!!!

The FRACDOG is watching you!

NEC1_N6.040 said:

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Enough rumor spreading Rory. Get back to work. You're being watched...

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someone is always watching! Perhaps rory shouldn't have used his real name for a sock.

I see APC purchasing either a private equity group or someone that has acreage that both they and Western can develop together, think $1B - $2B range. They have enough cash on the balance sheet to cover that.

Taking on Noble in this market wouldn't be the best of ideas in my opinion. With debt markets and equities running away, you're talking serious dilution of stock and the ability to raise cash is becoming more and more challenging.

Changing the subject, does anyone have any insight, good articles, or opinions on what the Aramco IPO does to the market? Good/bad, price increase/decrease, etc.
It seems like there has to be an impact, I just don't know what it will be.

It would seem to me it would give them money to invest and it would put more oil on the market. Who is buying the stock hoping they put on the brakes while others fill the gap and lower the price? I haven read anything about it so my logic may be terribly flawed.

74OA said:

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I don't see how prices can rise too much, since US frackers ramp up production every time they do: SUPPLY

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Yep it's a double edge sword. As the price goes up, the Permian, Eagle Ford, etc heats up. Refineries are not equipped as well to refine this light crude so it goes to storage. More goes to storage in the US, the more the negative press. So you can't win... stuck in a loop. Need world wide demand to go up quickly but it won't unless China and India heat up in the next year or so.
The EIA, IEA and OPEC are all wrong when it comes to predicting WW S/D. Probably about 1 mmbpd more is being produced WW then is being consumed. OPEC thinks that S/D will be in balance by year end but they were wrong before (extended cuts to Mar 2018). They will be wrong again, cause US production will increase as it's been going up every time the price/bbl goes up.

It will take until next year for S/D to balance IMO. Oil will stay at 45-50/bbl until then.
UNLESS OPEC and Russia takes another million bbls off the mkt but they won't.

Well, that's my thinking as well, but I have taken a pretty negative and cynical outlook to everything in the last few years.
Just hoping I'm wrong.

At what point does one of these oil-dependent governments collapse or start a conflict to increase oil prices? Russia, Venezuela, Saudi, Iraq, etc. With the decreasing income and gov't spending, At some point, the bubble has to pop... the question is when?

I think you're seeing glimpses of that pressure build-up right now with the 'blockade' of Qatar. Saudi is terrified of more populism in the gulf. And rightly so, probably. Their populism will look a bit different in form than ours. I think the unknown right now is whether this is good or bad for production. It could tear apart agreements, but could also lead to war.

Skillet Shot said:

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At what point does one of these oil-dependent governments collapse or start a conflict to increase oil prices? Russia, Venezuela, Saudi, Iraq, etc. With the decreasing income and gov't spending, At some point, the bubble has to pop... the question is when?

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Its never smart to start a war with a dwindling 'war chest'.

Very interesting quote today. Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW said, "There is selective perception in the market at the moment. Bearish factors like output in Libya or Nigeria result in lower prices, but bullish factors like the really high OPEC commitment are ignored." He fully expects prices to bottom out at $40-$45, before returning to $50 until the end of the year, buoyed by higher demand and continued production cuts by OPEC.

nu awlins ag said:

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Very interesting quote today. Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW said, "There is selective perception in the market at the moment. Bearish factors like output in Libya or Nigeria result in lower prices, but bullish factors like the really high OPEC commitment are ignored." He fully expects prices to bottom out at $40-$45, before returning to $50 until the end of the year, buoyed by higher demand and continued production cuts by OPEC.

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again..nothing about the demand side . until someone addresses the YUGE fly in the ointment none of the crystal ball articles are worth reading. NOTHING except perhaps some real tax reform and a return to healthcare insurance sanity will move the demand needle much. Coupled with the reality of the fake scam called " Chinese market growth" and Europe as anything other than a failed " union" rapidly turning into a giant museum and there just isn't anything on the longest outlook horizon that offers much hope for significant price improvement.

On demand.....Why the f are we still subsidizing green enrgy?

The Original AG 76 said:

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nu awlins ag said:

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Very interesting quote today. Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW said, "There is selective perception in the market at the moment. Bearish factors like output in Libya or Nigeria result in lower prices, but bullish factors like the really high OPEC commitment are ignored." He fully expects prices to bottom out at $40-$45, before returning to $50 until the end of the year, buoyed by higher demand and continued production cuts by OPEC.

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again..nothing about the demand side . until someone addresses the YUGE fly in the ointment none of the crystal ball articles are worth reading. NOTHING except perhaps some real tax reform and a return to healthcare insurance sanity will move the demand needle much. Coupled with the reality of the fake scam called " Chinese market growth" and Europe as anything other than a failed " union" rapidly turning into a giant museum and there just isn't anything on the longest outlook horizon that offers much hope for significant price improvement.

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Demand is fairly steady and growing slightly.

I agree about the market perception. I think it overreacted positively initially to first OPEC cuts and now has overreacted the other direction over inventories. It's like the market doesn't understand the factors that actually matter and looking at the bigger picture.

$45-$50 is probably a fair range until the excess inventory is eaten up more. But it's moving in the right direction.

Starting to hear rumblings of crews being shut down. Rumor is Continental is shutting down 3 in the Bakken and Halliburton will be idling 2 crews in the DJ.

Anyone heard anything similar?

MavsAg said:

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Starting to hear rumblings of crews being shut down. Rumor is Continental is shutting down 3 in the Bakken and Halliburton will be idling 2 crews in the DJ.

Anyone heard anything similar?

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Same here as far as the Bakken. I heard yesterday that Continental is releasing three crews. This after they had added two for the year.