nu awlins ag said:

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BP does a lot more stuff in house as opposed to letting vendors/services companies do things.

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This baffles me as at Subsea Tieback, INTSOk, etc they are touting how BP is letting getting out of their vendors way in how they specify their subsea equipment. In other words buying industry solution.

BP even contracted Wood Group to do the subsea design and Wood Group won the contract for the topsides design from SHI. They might not have gone full contractor route like when they did big GOM projects (Thunderhorse/Atlantis/mad dog) etc, but I would consider BP as known for doing things in house.

Yes. They did a lot of in-house stuff, but as my neighbor told, GOM Mgr., they are letting outside vendors do more. He said it has saved them a lot of money by not having all the "experts" on staff etc. They have changed a few of the things they used to do/use to save money. After Macondo, they really had no choice.

I'd hate to work on a rig with a crew that would take the pay that you could justify at a day rate that would make $40bbl oil profitable. I like all my appendages where they are.

MouthBQ98 said:

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I'd hate to work on a rig with a crew that would take the pay that you could justify at a day rate that would make $40bbl oil profitable. I like all my appendages where they are.

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Also, they'd be some miserable folks and be encouraged to start cutting corners, pencil whipping reports, and running off tattle-tales... but they would never CONDONE unsafe acts.

I hear there was a huge layoff at FMC this week. Also hear that stephenville plant is being closed/relocated entirely.

Any AGs left there to confirm?

nu awlins ag said:

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Yes. They did a lot of in-house stuff, but as my neighbor told, GOM Mgr., they are letting outside vendors do more. He said it has saved them a lot of money by not having all the "experts" on staff etc. They have changed a few of the things they used to do/use to save money. After Macondo, they really had no choice.

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That makes more sense, as that contradictes what you had put earlier.

Most of your deep water projects are getting sanctioned by a combination of reducing scope and reduced service rates. It's not just reduced rates.

Lack of projects finally caught up to Subsea Services and installations.

There's whispers about exploring options with Stephenville, but it would mean a 180 from recent budgets and plans.

xMusashix said:

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nu awlins ag said:

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Yes. They did a lot of in-house stuff, but as my neighbor told, GOM Mgr., they are letting outside vendors do more. He said it has saved them a lot of money by not having all the "experts" on staff etc. They have changed a few of the things they used to do/use to save money. After Macondo, they really had no choice.

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That makes more sense, as that contradictes what you had put earlier.

Most of your deep water projects are getting sanctioned by a combination of reducing scope and reduced service rates. It's not just reduced rates.

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Oops, meant to say originally that BP is letting more vendors do stuff. It did read bad, my fault.

Side note. Prices dropped for fear of the Paris pullout would mean more drilling in the US. Freaking crazy...more drilling because of the higher commodity prices. Some of this stuff is absolutely crazy being reported. Really?

nu awlins ag said:

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xMusashix said:

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nu awlins ag said:

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Yes. They did a lot of in-house stuff, but as my neighbor told, GOM Mgr., they are letting outside vendors do more. He said it has saved them a lot of money by not having all the "experts" on staff etc. They have changed a few of the things they used to do/use to save money. After Macondo, they really had no choice.

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That makes more sense, as that contradictes what you had put earlier.

Most of your deep water projects are getting sanctioned by a combination of reducing scope and reduced service rates. It's not just reduced rates.

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Oops, meant to say originally that BP is letting more vendors do stuff. It did read bad, my fault.

Side note. Prices dropped for fear of the Paris pullout would mean more drilling in the US. Freaking crazy...more drilling because of the higher commodity prices. Some of this stuff is absolutely crazy being reported. Really?

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That and they finally reigned in the excessive amount of third party contractors they had running design requirements and projects that went virtually unchecked. It's the main reason their specs and requirements were so out of wack compared to the rest of the players.

I know very little about the nat gas side of things. Could someone explain why SWN is sucking so hard lately? I was looking for cheap stock plays and saw how far they continue to fall.

Because they bought some really horrible assets in west Virginia off of Chesapeake and they're finally starting to understand what "cloud on title" means in WV.

There are also some in PA they bought from Chesapeake that they claim they didn't buy in the deal and are trying to bs their way out of owning.

aggie_wes said:

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I hear there was a huge layoff at FMC this week. Also hear that stephenville plant is being closed/relocated entirely.

Any AGs left there to confirm?

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I haven't heard anything like this. In fact just the opposite. My only sources are my family and a relative at a company that does some third party work for them in Stephenville. So, nothing from the inside, just some local speculation.

Fair enough. I've heard conflicting things on the Stephenville plant, but this was the latest.

Yep. They spent a ton on bad assets

Talon, what's your take on RRC's stock performance?

My uneducated opinion? They're getting their clocked cleaned by Rice Energy in the region. Rice has great land positions and is now managing their own gathering assets whereas RRC relied very heavily on MarkWest for midstream and signed those contracts during the gold rush of Marcellus and Utica. When gas prices took a hit, range was still stuck with those MarkWest contracts while Rice built out their own midstream and cut better deals on the land acquisition side.

Just shooting from the hip so don't take my word as gospel. I could be way off....or be the "hardest working man in oil" someone smarter than me will have to chime in

Talon-
Know anyone with a need for cfa type analyst? Just spit balling.

WTI nearing $45. What am I missing today?

Supply!

Right. The monthly supply increase update. Thanks

From my prior post..,... I've updated it recently and it now looks worse. I don't have access to my machine right now to post the updated. I still think we'll test $40.

3rdGenAg05 said:

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WTI nearing $45. What am I missing today?

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Why ask about today? Maybe you are missing something that happened within the last two years or longer.

Proven fact: almost all cause and effect dynamics within complex systems occur with a time delay.

Comeby - wouldn't you want to include global production to get a better correlation?

Comeby! said:

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From my prior post..,... I've updated it recently and it now looks worse. I don't have access to my machine right now to post the updated. I still think we'll test $40.

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Yup. It's the era of cheap oil.

They are back to the historical norm, but historically oil has been pretty cheap, at least when compared to any other form of energy. So you're kinda both right IMO.

China pushing hard to encourage electric vehicles. Could be a significant factor in reducing global demand down the road if they're successful.

Quote:

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"China's been pushing very aggressively to move to a greater mix of electrified vehicles," says Trevor Worthington, vice president of product development at Ford Motor Co. in Shanghai.

The U.S. automaker, which sold 1.3 million cars in China last year, has announced it will electrify 70 percent of its vehicles in China by 2025. This comes as Beijing is calling on auto manufacturers to sell more electric vehicles to reduce vehicle emissions, as well as China's dependence on foreign oil.

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Quote:

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By early next year, Beijing will require automakers in China to ensure that at least 8 percent of all vehicles they manufacture are electric. The country had more than 1 million electric vehicles in 2016 an 87 percent increase over the previous year. Vehicles range in price from $6,000 to $200,000 (for the most expensive Tesla model).

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Quote:

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"It's the largest automotive market in the world and will continue to be in the foreseeable future," says Worthington. "And you look at the number of mega-cities that there are in China, the density of their populations, so finding alternative solutions is not an unreasonable thing to expect the Chinese government to be doing."

The government has subsidized charging stations for electric vehicles China had 300,000 stations as of December 2016 and it has also paid people who purchase electric and plug-in hybrids thousands of dollars' worth of subsidies. But according to Tong Xiuying of Chinese automaker Chang'an, consumer demand is high regardless of incentives.

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Quote:

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"In Shanghai, you normally have to pay around 15,000 U.S. dollars for a license plate, and that's after you win one in a lottery!" says Lu, laughing. "If you buy a plug-in hybrid, the city will give you a free license plate, just like that. That makes it pretty alluring."

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http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/04/25/525412342/china-moves-to-increase-number-of-electric-vehicles-on-its-roads

GarlandAg2012 said:

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They are back to the historical norm, but historically oil has been pretty cheap, at least when compared to any other form of energy. So you're kinda both right IMO.

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US shale gas is about to do the same thing in its segment of the industry, too: Here We Go

"It only highlights a real bright spot for U.S. natural gas producers as we ramp up our export capacity," said John Kilduff of Again Capital. "U.S. shale producers of natural gas are getting ready to do to the global gas market what U.S. shale oil producers have done to OPEC."

PeekingDuck said:

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Comeby - wouldn't you want to include global production to get a better correlation?

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You can but reliable international estimates can be difficult to pin down. When it comes to oil supply, US oil shale seems to be the swing. There are research firms that study this too many places to the right of the decimal and still miss. I use this to get a better handle on the trends. It's not perfect but it helps me understand it.

Is there an organization like the EIA/API that gives frequent global estimates? Maybe not reliable, but the standard?

PeekingDuck said:

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Is there an organization like the EIA/API that gives frequent global estimates? Maybe not reliable, but the standard?

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Thought this was interesting. The Rise of Amateur Oil Sleuths. https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-rise-of-the-amateur-oil-sleuths-1495531801

TL/DR a lot of people are keeping tabs on stuff at home, and they're getting good at it.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/effort-to-crush-shale-producers-only-made-them-stronger-1497027600

Quote:

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Surging productivity in America's shale oil patch is an indirect result of pressure applied in recent years by OPEC and may have permanently lowered oil prices.
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While the recent decline in crude prices to near multi-month lows is costlier to the bottom lines of still high-cost shale producers than the Saudis, the productivity genie can't be put back into the bottle. It has put a permanent dent in long-term oil prices, costing traditional exporters tens of billions of dollars in future revenue.

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