Those evil speculators pushing price down
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I guess all of the oil companies are going to go bankrupt. Sure looks that way when I open my accounts this morning.
quote:Ok...
No reason to exit a best in space if you're long term , and reinvesting cash flows. SLB, ATW, SDRL, etc are all being beaten systematically. On a firm specific level their operations are clean. Find clean companies getting hammered by a divergence between their betas and a single or multiple factor variance and you can find solid value when there is a systematic regression to the mean.
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This morning I watched a common theme pick up steam on the Twitter. The theme is really nothing more than a continuation (with growing numbers) of comments I've seen for several weeks in this market as we have continued to make new lows. The theme is stating the following: Risk/Reward favors longs here.
In just the last few days I've seen this stated at prices of 76, 75, 74, 73, 72, 71, and.well, you get the idea. Appears we are trading 66 and change after making new low prints as I'm typing this. This particular line of thinking becomes especially popular when you wake up to a market that is down 6% and has already been trending down for weeks. There's just one problem: nobody that is stating this (at least not that I've seen) is using any sort of data to verify the argument and my guess is the majority aren't following any sort of process either. My guess is that its more of a blind trade in the middle of nowhere for many. On the other hand, perhaps many planned to be scale down buyers or were simply looking for quick rotational long scalpsbut I'm doubtful of that.
This sort of thinking is born from the widespread belief that "its down a lot, so a long has to be better than a short here" and I've seen it used in pretty much every market or individual stock. Indeed, master marketer Mr. Buffett has convinced the masses that "buying when there is blood in the streets" is actually some sort of definable edge when operating in markets, that it is a defined trading plan. It isn't and, it isn't. I learned the hard way years ago that repeating trite quotes about the markets is nothing remotely close to an edgebut its a great way to keep your ego involved in your trades as you repeat it to yourself while taking heat.
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Blog post on crude from a professional trader. My trading experiences have been similar when picking bottoms and tops.
https://fatf1nger.wordpress.com/
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This morning I watched a common theme pick up steam on the Twitter. The theme is really nothing more than a continuation (with growing numbers) of comments I've seen for several weeks in this market as we have continued to make new lows. The theme is stating the following: Risk/Reward favors longs here.
In just the last few days I've seen this stated at prices of 76, 75, 74, 73, 72, 71, and.well, you get the idea. Appears we are trading 66 and change after making new low prints as I'm typing this. This particular line of thinking becomes especially popular when you wake up to a market that is down 6% and has already been trending down for weeks. There's just one problem: nobody that is stating this (at least not that I've seen) is using any sort of data to verify the argument and my guess is the majority aren't following any sort of process either. My guess is that its more of a blind trade in the middle of nowhere for many. On the other hand, perhaps many planned to be scale down buyers or were simply looking for quick rotational long scalpsbut I'm doubtful of that.
This sort of thinking is born from the widespread belief that "its down a lot, so a long has to be better than a short here" and I've seen it used in pretty much every market or individual stock. Indeed, master marketer Mr. Buffett has convinced the masses that "buying when there is blood in the streets" is actually some sort of definable edge when operating in markets, that it is a defined trading plan. It isn't and, it isn't. I learned the hard way years ago that repeating trite quotes about the markets is nothing remotely close to an edgebut its a great way to keep your ego involved in your trades as you repeat it to yourself while taking heat.
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I don't think many of the larger operators will be laying people off at the beginning of they year. Hiring freeze? Sure. Most companies have been very lean and if oil bounces next year, they will want to be in a good position to ramp up. Guess we will see.
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Most have no concept how bad it will get in Houstin in 2016. Many families will go from close to $200k in dual income to unemployment overnight.
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Who is doing layoffs?
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Who is doing layoffs?
BP is right now in Upstream. Announced a couple weeks ago to employees. This was already an "efficiency" effort where the ball was rolling prior to oil dropping (costs had risen way too high since 2010 relative to competitors), but I'm sure the oil prices don't help. Of course, neither did the gross negligence ruling.