Those evil speculators pushing price down

69 and falling

I guess all of the oil companies are going to go bankrupt. Sure looks that way when I open my accounts this morning.

CXO, APC, EOG wow. All those companies were hedged so no big deal but sustained oil prices at these levels then they effed

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I guess all of the oil companies are going to go bankrupt. Sure looks that way when I open my accounts this morning.

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Lol everyone told me not to tilt my portfolio at all but I insisted on tilting to energy

Blackeye.jpg

No reason to exit a best in space if you're long term , and reinvesting cash flows. SLB, ATW, SDRL, etc are all being beaten systematically. On a firm specific level their operations are clean. Find clean companies getting hammered by a divergence between their betas and a single or multiple factor variance and you can find solid value when there is a systematic regression to the mean.

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No reason to exit a best in space if you're long term , and reinvesting cash flows. SLB, ATW, SDRL, etc are all being beaten systematically. On a firm specific level their operations are clean. Find clean companies getting hammered by a divergence between their betas and a single or multiple factor variance and you can find solid value when there is a systematic regression to the mean.

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Ok...

Broke 66. This is really gonna be interesting. Russia has to be pissed off, ME coutries have to be pissed off, big oil is pissed off. Wouldn't be surprised if there is war somewhere soon to prop up the petrodollar

Boss thinks it's a joint US and Saudi push to squeeze Iran and Russia into economic upheaval. You know Saudi Arabia walked away smiling knowing they just tinkerbelked the Iranian budget.

Looks like Saudi Arabia is playing J Rockafeller ball with Russia and the gulf.

The pipeline war in Syria is real

Hearing rumblings from the EF that there are about to be some massive cuts if Mindsy's selling picks up. Very likely to happen with a heavier volume. Sub $65 makes it tough in most places. If it breaks $60, the shake plays in the EF and Bakken start hurting to the point of operational shutdown.

Ruble now at 50 to 1

DS, I think we are on the same page. A geopolitical petrowar is starting. I wouldn't be shocked if OPEC turns on itself. To many different self interests now and costs of production.

Very interested to see the response in the Middle East now since basically every OPEC country will be pulling a deficit at these prices... No more maintain the peace payments going out to people

Putin set Russia up for a massive economic fall. If this is what it takes to break the gulfs abd Russia and Venezuelans back, I'm all for it. I'd just like to make some $ while they go at it.

At this price, Obama prob will sign the keystone if it hits his desk because Canadian oil sands will be market inefficient.

USO etfs are hovering around 25, buy with both hands and hold for an easy 80% return.

yep keystone fight is meaningless because it's not getting built at these prices

Blog post on crude from a professional trader. My trading experiences have been similar when picking bottoms and tops.
https://fatf1nger.wordpress.com/

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This morning I watched a common theme pick up steam on the Twitter. The theme is really nothing more than a continuation (with growing numbers) of comments I've seen for several weeks in this market as we have continued to make new lows. The theme is stating the following: Risk/Reward favors longs here.

In just the last few days I've seen this stated at prices of 76, 75, 74, 73, 72, 71, and.well, you get the idea. Appears we are trading 66 and change after making new low prints as I'm typing this. This particular line of thinking becomes especially popular when you wake up to a market that is down 6% and has already been trending down for weeks. There's just one problem: nobody that is stating this (at least not that I've seen) is using any sort of data to verify the argument and my guess is the majority aren't following any sort of process either. My guess is that its more of a blind trade in the middle of nowhere for many. On the other hand, perhaps many planned to be scale down buyers or were simply looking for quick rotational long scalpsbut I'm doubtful of that.

This sort of thinking is born from the widespread belief that "its down a lot, so a long has to be better than a short here" and I've seen it used in pretty much every market or individual stock. Indeed, master marketer Mr. Buffett has convinced the masses that "buying when there is blood in the streets" is actually some sort of definable edge when operating in markets, that it is a defined trading plan. It isn't and, it isn't. I learned the hard way years ago that repeating trite quotes about the markets is nothing remotely close to an edgebut its a great way to keep your ego involved in your trades as you repeat it to yourself while taking heat.

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Blog post on crude from a professional trader. My trading experiences have been similar when picking bottoms and tops.
https://fatf1nger.wordpress.com/

quote:

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This morning I watched a common theme pick up steam on the Twitter. The theme is really nothing more than a continuation (with growing numbers) of comments I've seen for several weeks in this market as we have continued to make new lows. The theme is stating the following: Risk/Reward favors longs here.

In just the last few days I've seen this stated at prices of 76, 75, 74, 73, 72, 71, and.well, you get the idea. Appears we are trading 66 and change after making new low prints as I'm typing this. This particular line of thinking becomes especially popular when you wake up to a market that is down 6% and has already been trending down for weeks. There's just one problem: nobody that is stating this (at least not that I've seen) is using any sort of data to verify the argument and my guess is the majority aren't following any sort of process either. My guess is that its more of a blind trade in the middle of nowhere for many. On the other hand, perhaps many planned to be scale down buyers or were simply looking for quick rotational long scalpsbut I'm doubtful of that.

This sort of thinking is born from the widespread belief that "its down a lot, so a long has to be better than a short here" and I've seen it used in pretty much every market or individual stock. Indeed, master marketer Mr. Buffett has convinced the masses that "buying when there is blood in the streets" is actually some sort of definable edge when operating in markets, that it is a defined trading plan. It isn't and, it isn't. I learned the hard way years ago that repeating trite quotes about the markets is nothing remotely close to an edgebut its a great way to keep your ego involved in your trades as you repeat it to yourself while taking heat.

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All that to say never try to catch a falling knife?

Look for a sharp rally to about $75 very soon.

Then look for a move to $55 next.

AND ...expect the layoffs and cutbacks to start right after the new year. It is all shaping up , sadly. like I was afraid.

I don't think many of the larger operators will be laying people off at the beginning of they year. Hiring freeze? Sure. Most companies have been very lean and if oil bounces next year, they will want to be in a good position to ramp up. Guess we will see.

All bets are off if oil drops to around $40 and stays there for 6+ months. Otherwise, I think 2015 will be a wait and see year.

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I don't think many of the larger operators will be laying people off at the beginning of they year. Hiring freeze? Sure. Most companies have been very lean and if oil bounces next year, they will want to be in a good position to ramp up. Guess we will see.

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They have already started the layoffs. Capex and exploration spending has been curtailed for a few months now. This price environment may expedite the process.

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This

Who is doing layoffs?

CVX has held very low hiring for the last year or so, haven't heard of layoffs though.

Know budgets have been reworked a few times though. We'll see what activity is like soon enough...

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I understand that CVX 2015 budgets are finalized now with reduced exploration and capex, which shouldn't be a surprise as reductions were mentioned in the last earnings call. There have already been some reductions in contractors and will likely be more in 2015 because a lot of personnel budgets were frozen, meaning there have to be headcount reductions to fund raises (or contractor rate reductions). Attrition will probably help take care of most of that. Several projects were also deferred, which will impact project hire contractors. However, no employee layoffs are planned as far as I know and I doubt that is how CVX or any of the super majors will handle headcount issues nless oil plummets...they'll likely offer early retirement incentives instead as there are a lot of people who are full retirement eligible and still working.

Hiring has slowed but it was a record levels the last few years so that's not really a surprise.

2015 was going to be a tight capex year even without the drop in oil prices, so I don't think this is all necessarily a response to the recent oil price decline.

Yeah. No chance Chevron is laying people off yet. I am talking about operators specifically. Service companies will have to lay off well before the operators would be my guess. Anyone heard of operators laying people off?

Most have no concept how bad it will get in Houstin in 2016. Many families will go from close to $200k in dual income to unemployment overnight.

I'm still long O&G, but expect to take a beating across the next 12 months. If try and time a bottom, but rather DCA. The technicals all say buy, but I don't think a bottom has formed.

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Most have no concept how bad it will get in Houstin in 2016. Many families will go from close to $200k in dual income to unemployment overnight.

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What ages you predict this?

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Who is doing layoffs?

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BP is right now in Upstream. Announced a couple weeks ago to employees. This was already an "efficiency" effort where the ball was rolling prior to oil dropping (costs had risen way too high since 2010 relative to competitors), but I'm sure the oil prices don't help. Of course, neither did the gross negligence ruling.

Haven't heard about any layoffs at my company, a major e&p company. Money is tight for next year. But with our goal of moving mainly to shale plays I'm worried but glad I don't work in that business unit with the drop in oil.

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Who is doing layoffs?

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BP is right now in Upstream. Announced a couple weeks ago to employees. This was already an "efficiency" effort where the ball was rolling prior to oil dropping (costs had risen way too high since 2010 relative to competitors), but I'm sure the oil prices don't help. Of course, neither did the gross negligence ruling.

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Correct but like others have said before, I think they've learned to not lay off all of the old people or just completely drop the new hires. So it will be more hit and miss but BP definitely needed to downsize relative to their assets.