***** 2024 Houston Astros Season Thread ***** [Staff Warning]

3,946,350 Views | 67710 Replies | Last: 4 days ago by jkag89
SpaceCityAg05
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I take SOME of that with a grain of salt. I think there is a divide in sports, but especially in baseball between the gym rat types and the instinctive roll out the ball and play types.

Biggio and Bagwell were known to be gym rat types. Bregman is of the same mold and Dusty had that some old school bias. And you definitely don't want a player whose mind and heart are not in game - like Anthony Rendon.

As long as everyone takes their job seriously, is prepared, and works to be healthy, there are different valid approaches to the game. I can't vouch for clubhouse routine, but Altuve is a good kind of example of the other approach. He approaches the game instinctively. Integrity aside, I suspect that is another reason he did not want to be involve with the trash-can game - he isn't looking to think at the plate, but has a great feel to the game.

What you don't want is a bias where one style of approach is so biased against the other that there is a perception of a player not being up to snuff, like we saw with Dusty and Chas.

If someone struggles because they don't do their homework, or is injured because they don't take care of their body, then teammates and coaches have a right to be upset. But I don't like to see players discredited because they approach the game differently. Baseball is as much art as it is science.
texasaggie2015
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I'm in no way discrediting Tucker at all. He's a hell of a player.
Farmer1906
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tjack16 said:

As it stands now, I'd trade the following to get at least something back if we were still below .500 at the deadline and determine to

Bregman
Framber
JV
Brown
Chas
Jake
Urquidy
Pressly
And if you don't plan on re-signing him, Tucker

But I'd try like crazy to re-sign Tucker

Build the core around Tucker, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena, Loperfido, Javier, and Garcia


If you sell and can't sign Tucker (sell him too) when would you expect to compete for a title again?
redline248
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On Hader, what do his so-called metrics say? Should we expect him to be the guy we paid for or continue to suck?

(on phone while at work or I would try to look for myself)
MaxPower
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Completely agree with what you said, but there is the complexity of handing a guy $250+M. There's a commitment there and being comfortable the guy will stay focused and work is important. Tucker is fairly young and hasn't faced a lot of adversity (e.g. being on a bad team, recovering or playing through a significant injury or being "the man" who takes bullets for the team that is expected of your highest paid player).

If his commitment to the game prevents you from committing to him then it gets us back to the same spot. If you aren't going to extend him then can you really just ride it out until he leaves or do you trade him to reload?
texasaggie2015
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Josh Hader Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com (mlb.com)

It looks like his expected numbers are quite a bit better than his real numbers.
MaxPower
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Farmer1906 said:

tjack16 said:

As it stands now, I'd trade the following to get at least something back if we were still below .500 at the deadline and determine to

Bregman
Framber
JV
Brown
Chas
Jake
Urquidy
Pressly
And if you don't plan on re-signing him, Tucker

But I'd try like crazy to re-sign Tucker

Build the core around Tucker, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena, Loperfido, Javier, and Garcia


If you sell and can't sign Tucker (sell him too) when would you expect to compete for a title again?
Depends who you trade for and who you sign in free agency with money saved but I would say 2026 is your earliest realistic timeframe.
Lonestar_Ag09
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MaxPower said:

Farmer1906 said:

How has Jake proved he's NOT an everyday player based on 2024 results?

120 wRC+

Well above avg in a lot of key advanced metrics. Great defense.

Agreed. I think fans don't like him because he makes the routine look hard and has a noodle arm (probably the least important think for a CF).

I am his defender but this comes without that. I think people dislike him because he actually makes the really difficult look routine and then we get upset if he doesn't make the play. Meaning, he's the anti Brandon Barnes who made the routine into looking like web gems but a better outfielder would have caught routinely.
_veeyah_
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SpaceCityAg05 said:

I take SOME of that with a grain of salt. I think there is a divide in sports, but especially in baseball between the gym rat types and the instinctive roll out the ball and play types.

Biggio and Bagwell were known to be gym rat types. Bregman is of the same mold and Dusty had that some old school bias. And you definitely don't want a player whose mind and heart are not in game - like Anthony Rendon.

As long as everyone takes their job seriously, is prepared, and works to be healthy, there are different valid approaches to the game. I can't vouch for clubhouse routine, but Altuve is a good kind of example of the other approach. He approaches the game instinctively. Integrity aside, I suspect that is another reason he did not want to be involve with the trash-can game - he isn't looking to think at the plate, but has a great feel to the game.

What you don't want is a bias where one style of approach is so biased against the other that there is a perception of a player not being up to snuff, like we saw with Dusty and Chas.

If someone struggles because they don't do their homework, or is injured because they don't take care of their body, then teammates and coaches have a right to be upset. But I don't like to see players discredited because they approach the game differently. Baseball is as much art as it is science.

The way he carries himself and the emotion he actually shows on the field you can tell Tucker does take his job seriously. Some of his interviews you can tell he studies the game as well, he strikes me as one of those players that knows its a long season and doesn't need to go 100% 162 games. Feels like he paces himself and knows when to go all out on a fly ball or on a run to 1st base. So far this season he has stepped up especially the way he played last year in the playoffs, this season will show a lot from him if this team is a .500 ball club or below .500
tjack16
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Farmer1906 said:

tjack16 said:

As it stands now, I'd trade the following to get at least something back if we were still below .500 at the deadline and determine to

Bregman
Framber
JV
Brown
Chas
Jake
Urquidy
Pressly
And if you don't plan on re-signing him, Tucker

But I'd try like crazy to re-sign Tucker

Build the core around Tucker, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena, Loperfido, Javier, and Garcia


If you sell and can't sign Tucker (sell him too) when would you expect to compete for a title again?


2025 if you make smart offseason moves with the pitching staff and sign a decent bat.

The core of Tucker, Altuve, Pena, Diaz, Yordan is still really legit and with really good 1-4 in the rotation could still be a playoff team. You could also have Dubon as your 3rd basemen

All the guys I listed for trade are either on their final years, 2025 is their last year, or they have proven to just be average players that may have value to the right team

You'd still have Javier, LMJ, LuAce, and Arighetti in the rotation. Add one more guy in a FA signing and that's a top 10 starting rotation when healthy. At least your front end guys are… Arighetti would be #5 obviously

Also my disclaimer was I'd only be a seller if you're under .500 still and haven't turned a corner by late July. If we are still within 5 or so games of a playoff spot then you hold and fight
Farmer1906
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tjack16 said:

Farmer1906 said:

tjack16 said:

As it stands now, I'd trade the following to get at least something back if we were still below .500 at the deadline and determine to

Bregman
Framber
JV
Brown
Chas
Jake
Urquidy
Pressly
And if you don't plan on re-signing him, Tucker

But I'd try like crazy to re-sign Tucker

Build the core around Tucker, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena, Loperfido, Javier, and Garcia


If you sell and can't sign Tucker (sell him too) when would you expect to compete for a title again?


2025 if you make smart offseason moves with the pitching staff and sign a decent bat.

The core of Tucker, Altuve, Pena, Diaz, Yordan is still really legit and with really good 1-4 in the rotation could still be a playoff team. You could also have Dubon as your 3rd basemen

All the guys I listed for trade are either on their final years, 2025 is their last year, or they have proven to just be average players that may have value to the right team
Chas is average? Framber is average? JV is average?
tjack16
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Framber and JV both have one year left after this. That was one of the 3 options I listed as to why. (Hence the or part of that thought process). I said on their final year, next year is final year, OR they are just average player that could be of value.

Also I meant to take Chas off the list. I'd keep Jake on the trade list though

Again this is all in response to one posters hypothetical sell scenario… in zero reality do I think we will be sellers. I'm playing MLB the show GM here hypothetically if we were to continue to be awful
Farmer1906
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I read it as 2024 as their last year. My bad.
Farmer1906
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I just think the odds of being able to deal all those guys and get enough in return to complete in 2026 is probably unlikely. Prospects are very hit or miss. I think 2027-28 would be more the window and by then you have guys leaving or aging out.
W
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one question for 2025...

can the Astros get out of payroll prison for the 2025 season?

Abreu, Montero, Hader, and LMj will still be on the payroll

only Bregman's big salary is gone -- right?
W
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SpaceCityAg05 said:

I take SOME of that with a grain of salt. I think there is a divide in sports, but especially in baseball between the gym rat types and the instinctive roll out the ball and play types.

Biggio and Bagwell were known to be gym rat types. Bregman is of the same mold and Dusty had that some old school bias. And you definitely don't want a player whose mind and heart are not in game - like Anthony Rendon.
strangely enough...that's why I think players like Lance Berkman and Adam Dunn did not do steroids

they were not the obsessed gym rat types -- and they didn't want to be
SpaceCityAg05
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To be clear (and I obviously wasn't - my bad), I think Tucker is a hell of a player. And I would absolutely extend him at premium dollars as long as the length isn't extreme. I would not give a 10 year deal to ANY player unless I had the rare phenom established All-Star at a super young age (think Juan Soto). If you can get someone to do a 10-year deal that still only takes them into their early 30s, that is a different animal. But 99% of the time, I would not consider a 10-year deal to anyone. If Kyle wants 10 years, I would let him walk.

But if you can get him to sign a 7-8 year deal in the 245-275 million range, I would do it even though it has not been Crane's MO.

My talk about Tucker being a hard worker was meant to be a defense. I love Biggio and Bagwell, but the old school guys can sometimes have a short-sighted view of what a good player looks like. You don't want lazy mercenary players, but I think Tucker is an elite-elite player. He is dry and understated and can look nonchalant, but I think he is actually developing into a leader.

I am concerned with his rough start, but I also think Chas is a good player, despite Dusty's bias against non-gym rats.
Farmer1906
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W said:

one question for 2025...

can the Astros get out of payroll prison for the 2025 season?

Abreu, Montero, Hader, and LMj will still be on the payroll

only Bregman's big salary is gone -- right?
Coming off the books
  • 20.0 M Bregman (30.5 M in actual payroll)
  • 8.0 M Graveman
  • 1.0 M Neris Buyout

Potentially coming off
  • 17.0 M Verlander
  • 15.0 Pressly

2026
  • 19.5 M Abreu
  • 11.5 M Montero
  • 6.0 M Caratini
  • ~18 M Valdez
  • ~18 M Tucker
  • ~5 M Urquidy

I am using AAV #s.

~144 M coming off over the next 2 seasons.
W
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and going back to Jake...

there are issues that don't show up in the advanced metrics, but impact his playing time

- forgetting the # of outs in the, gulp, 1st inning

- falling down between 1st & 2nd while trying to steal 2nd base as a pinch-runner in the 9th inning

- the miscommunication with Tucker that let the double fall in for Cleveland

- and the aforementioned throwing arm...every team runs on him
Farmer1906
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W said:

and going back to Jake...

there are issues that don't show up in the advanced metrics, but impact his playing time

- forgetting the # of outs in the, gulp, 1st inning

- falling down between 1st & 2nd while trying to steal 2nd base as a pinch-runner in the 9th inning

- the miscommunication with Tucker that let the double fall in for Cleveland

- and the aforementioned throwing arm...every team runs on him


All but forgetting the outs show up in the advanced metrics. And it would have shown up if the runners advanced when they shouldn't have.
MaxPower
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If we just hold and let guys walk away once they hit free agency, we will have a lot of money to spend after 2025. The problem is on who to spend that money on. Bregman is the best 3B available for this or next offseason (unless you get creative by paying Adames or Bichette and moving them over). Unless you pony up for Soto or Tucker, OF is also not good. You could throw a bag at Vlad Jr and 1B typically isn't super expensive. There will be a lot of good pitchers the next two off seasons but we know what kind of risks that comes with.
MaxPower
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Farmer1906 said:

I just think the odds of being able to deal all those guys and get enough in return to complete in 2026 is probably unlikely. Prospects are very hit or miss. I think 2027-28 would be more the window and by then you have guys leaving or aging out.
I said earliest but it depends on too many factors. Are we going to just carry a $150M payroll or will the money saved by spent? Are you getting major league ready guys or young guys with higher ceilings?

I also wouldn't advocate for moving every single player we could trade. Free agency is strongest with pitchers so if you're going to reinvest that way then moving Bregman, Pressly, Framber, JV and maybe an excess OF makes the most sense. That would put your payroll around $150M excluding Tucker. Even if you extend him at $35M a year, that leaves you nearly $60M below the luxury tax threshold. You could sign a good starter and Adames to put at 3B and be ready to rock.
EastCoastAgNc
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MaxPower said:

If we just hold and let guys walk away once they hit free agency, we will have a lot of money to spend after 2025. The problem is on who to spend that money on. Bregman is the best 3B available for this or next offseason (unless you get creative by paying Adames or Bichette and moving them over). Unless you pony up for Soto or Tucker, OF is also not good. You could throw a bag at Vlad Jr and 1B typically isn't super expensive. There will be a lot of good pitchers the next two off seasons but we know what kind of risks that comes with.

If Jim Crane used that money to make a good free agent signing, it would be the first one he's ever made.
linkdude
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it seems crazy that Tampa's bullpen would be that much worse than ours, but I guess our "bad" is so concentrated in three guys instead of being spread out to everyone. $/WAR might tell a different story
MaxPower
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/05/05/mike-trout-injury-ken-griffey-jr-center-field/73574618007/

Basically says JV loves playing for the Astros so stop the trade speculation. The question will be whether he still wants to stay if we start trading off other players.
Ag4life80
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We have some talented lollygaggers and pouters. Yordan is one and so Is Bregman and Tucker. Those 3 have never had to battle what this team is going through now. They've never not made the LCS, for crying out loud.
Altuve got embarrassed his first AB vs the Mariners and kicked it up after that. Tucker has rebounded.
Pena, has been special in terms of effort and production. Diaz and Dubon also play hard. But, overall, the edge is missing.
EastCoastAgNc
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MaxPower said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2024/05/05/mike-trout-injury-ken-griffey-jr-center-field/73574618007/

Basically says JV loves playing for the Astros so stop the trade speculation. The question will be whether he still wants to stay if we start trading off other players.

So basically what happened with the mets last year
spadilly
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S

Off days…

AggiEE
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I definitely don't think we should be sellers.

This team has had a disastrous start for various reasons that shouldn't be expected to repeat next year and we have the offseason to address issues

We can be competitive in 2025 even if 2024 is a bust
texasaggie2015
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AG
If we're out of the race in July, it would only benefit us to sell to some extent.
AggiEE
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texasaggie2015 said:

If we're out of the race in July, it would only benefit us to sell to some extent.


Who? We have a number of guys mostly locked in for 2025

Selling them just makes 2025 worse
tjack16
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AggiEE said:

texasaggie2015 said:

If we're out of the race in July, it would only benefit us to sell to some extent.


Who? We have a number of guys mostly locked in for 2025

Selling them just makes 2025 worse



You could trade them and still have a lot of money to spend. So if you did trade guys, they'd have to make smart signings and go all in on pitching. Guys like max fried could be available, Corbin Burnes… etc
mwm
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It's time to fish or cut bait. Either kick it in gear and start a winning streak or get off the pot.
EastCoastAgNc
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I guess it could always be worse
MaxPower
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His defensive ratings have taken a huge tumble.

It's interesting that all these Boras clients who settled for short term deals have been just bad. Guess MLB owners aren't as idiotic as they used to be.
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