Mathguy64 said:

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Win. Singular. Uno. Juan. Ein. The first whole number. The first ordinal number. The measure of a sample space.

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User name checks out

MaxPower said:

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As you noted we had no viable replacement. This is what happens when your farm system is garbage. You have no choice but to pay veterans, most of whom are unlikely to match production with pay. It's much the same with Tucker. You basically have to pay him. I'm not worried about an immediate downward trend like Bregman but you will almost certainly regret the last half of that deal. You just have to hope by then your farm is worth a crap and you can build around him as he declines.

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Fully agree. And it's unfortunate for us that merely matching previous production for Bregman would take an MVP caliber May and June to put him back on track. At this point, we're just hoping for a 25% drop in production from last year and getting far worse so far.

With Tucker, you worry about complacency after a big contract. He's never struck me as someone who seems hungry, but thats more from observing his mannerisms and not his play, which is not reliable as an indicator moving forward. But we almost have no choice but to sign him unless we are willing to enter a mini rebuild. We don't need Bregman, ever aging JV, or Framber to compete. We can find pieces to replace most of or all of what they provide.

But with Chas looking like he's having a Pena 2023 type year, Jake proving he's just not a reliable every day player, Joey with a steep learning curve, and really nothing in the minors in the OF, if we lose Tucker, it might be years before our OF production could get close to back to what it was last year.

You feel good with Altuve and Pena. Dubon can be more than serviceable at 3B while you work to find the next guy. I'm not sold on Singleton, but I think you give him through the trade deadline and see what you've got. Yordan can play OF, and between him and Caratini, DH is fine for this year. But the outfield has to get better. You've already called up the only relatively promising prospect. The only other one who might be able to fill in would be Pedro Leon. After that, it's a huge black hole in the minors.

I don't buy Dubon as an everyday guy. Advanced metrics point to a player due for major regression. He has a history of being bad against sinkers and sliders, so I suspect if you dug into it you'd find we are strategically starting him against 4-seam guys with curves or changeups (he didn't start against Kirby or Carrasco for example, who both throw sinkers quite a bit). You'd probably want to platoon him with either a lefty or a someone who is better against those pitches.

How has Jake proved he's NOT an everyday player based on 2024 results?

120 wRC+

Well above avg in a lot of key advanced metrics. Great defense.

I don't know what to make of it. He might just be a quiet, cold kind of guy. That said, this is where the team has to make their own conclusion. Thats one area where I think Bagwell or Biggio's insight would be helpful.

Regardless, it's $h!/ or get off the pot time. Letting him walk for a draft pick that takes two years to maybe help at all simply isn't an option with where this team is at.

Farmer1906 said:

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How has Jake proved he's NOT an everyday player based on 2024 results?

120 wRC+

Well above avg in a lot of key advanced metrics. Great defense.

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Agreed. I think fans don't like him because he makes the routine look hard and has a noodle arm (probably the least important think for a CF).

Ciboag96 said:

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I'm putting $100 on Bregman popping up his next at bat. With the odds, it'll be the easiest $0.25 I've ever made.

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You and that Alabama versus Rice guy may shut down Vegas

texasaggie2015 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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MaxPower said:

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As you noted we had no viable replacement. This is what happens when your farm system is garbage. You have no choice but to pay veterans, most of whom are unlikely to match production with pay. It's much the same with Tucker. You basically have to pay him. I'm not worried about an immediate downward trend like Bregman but you will almost certainly regret the last half of that deal. You just have to hope by then your farm is worth a crap and you can build around him as he declines.

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With Tucker, you worry about complacency after a big contract. He's never struck me as someone who seems hungry, but thats more from observing his mannerisms and not his play, which is not reliable as an indicator moving forward.

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FWIW- I've actually heard concerns about Tucker's drive and love for baseball long term. The first person I heard this from was in the Astros dugout/clubhouse the year Tucker made his debut.

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What type of contract is Tucker actually looking for? Is he looking for a 10yr or so contract or will he be good with a 5yr if the money is good?

_veeyah_ said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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MaxPower said:

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As you noted we had no viable replacement. This is what happens when your farm system is garbage. You have no choice but to pay veterans, most of whom are unlikely to match production with pay. It's much the same with Tucker. You basically have to pay him. I'm not worried about an immediate downward trend like Bregman but you will almost certainly regret the last half of that deal. You just have to hope by then your farm is worth a crap and you can build around him as he declines.

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With Tucker, you worry about complacency after a big contract. He's never struck me as someone who seems hungry, but thats more from observing his mannerisms and not his play, which is not reliable as an indicator moving forward.

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FWIW- I've actually heard concerns about Tucker's drive and love for baseball long term. The first person I heard this from was in the Astros dugout/clubhouse the year Tucker made his debut.

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What type of contract is Tucker actually looking for? Is he looking for a 10yr or so contract or will he be good with a 5yr if the money is good?

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I think you'd have to go like 50 M per to get him to sign a 5 year deal.

Farmer1906 said:

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_veeyah_ said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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MaxPower said:

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As you noted we had no viable replacement. This is what happens when your farm system is garbage. You have no choice but to pay veterans, most of whom are unlikely to match production with pay. It's much the same with Tucker. You basically have to pay him. I'm not worried about an immediate downward trend like Bregman but you will almost certainly regret the last half of that deal. You just have to hope by then your farm is worth a crap and you can build around him as he declines.

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With Tucker, you worry about complacency after a big contract. He's never struck me as someone who seems hungry, but thats more from observing his mannerisms and not his play, which is not reliable as an indicator moving forward.

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FWIW- I've actually heard concerns about Tucker's drive and love for baseball long term. The first person I heard this from was in the Astros dugout/clubhouse the year Tucker made his debut.

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What type of contract is Tucker actually looking for? Is he looking for a 10yr or so contract or will he be good with a 5yr if the money is good?

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I think you'd have to go like 50 M per to get him to sign a 5 year deal.

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I was thinking I saw somewhere that we were wanting to do a 5 year deal and Tucker (or his agent) was wanting a 7 year deal.

txags92 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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_veeyah_ said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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MaxPower said:

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As you noted we had no viable replacement. This is what happens when your farm system is garbage. You have no choice but to pay veterans, most of whom are unlikely to match production with pay. It's much the same with Tucker. You basically have to pay him. I'm not worried about an immediate downward trend like Bregman but you will almost certainly regret the last half of that deal. You just have to hope by then your farm is worth a crap and you can build around him as he declines.

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With Tucker, you worry about complacency after a big contract. He's never struck me as someone who seems hungry, but thats more from observing his mannerisms and not his play, which is not reliable as an indicator moving forward.

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FWIW- I've actually heard concerns about Tucker's drive and love for baseball long term. The first person I heard this from was in the Astros dugout/clubhouse the year Tucker made his debut.

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What type of contract is Tucker actually looking for? Is he looking for a 10yr or so contract or will he be good with a 5yr if the money is good?

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I think you'd have to go like 50 M per to get him to sign a 5 year deal.

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I was thinking I saw somewhere that we were wanting to do a 5 year deal and Tucker (or his agent) was wanting a 7 year deal.

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I hope you're right. I don't recall seeing anything like that.

Farmer1906 said:

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txags92 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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_veeyah_ said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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MaxPower said:

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As you noted we had no viable replacement. This is what happens when your farm system is garbage. You have no choice but to pay veterans, most of whom are unlikely to match production with pay. It's much the same with Tucker. You basically have to pay him. I'm not worried about an immediate downward trend like Bregman but you will almost certainly regret the last half of that deal. You just have to hope by then your farm is worth a crap and you can build around him as he declines.

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With Tucker, you worry about complacency after a big contract. He's never struck me as someone who seems hungry, but thats more from observing his mannerisms and not his play, which is not reliable as an indicator moving forward.

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FWIW- I've actually heard concerns about Tucker's drive and love for baseball long term. The first person I heard this from was in the Astros dugout/clubhouse the year Tucker made his debut.

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What type of contract is Tucker actually looking for? Is he looking for a 10yr or so contract or will he be good with a 5yr if the money is good?

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I think you'd have to go like 50 M per to get him to sign a 5 year deal.

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I was thinking I saw somewhere that we were wanting to do a 5 year deal and Tucker (or his agent) was wanting a 7 year deal.

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I hope you're right. I don't recall seeing anything like that.

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7 year would be awesome

I'd go 7/210M no problem. I'd even add a player option for that final year.

$250M seems minimum but I can't see him taking fewer than 8 years.

tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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txags92 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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_veeyah_ said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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Heineken-Ashi said:

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MaxPower said:

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As you noted we had no viable replacement. This is what happens when your farm system is garbage. You have no choice but to pay veterans, most of whom are unlikely to match production with pay. It's much the same with Tucker. You basically have to pay him. I'm not worried about an immediate downward trend like Bregman but you will almost certainly regret the last half of that deal. You just have to hope by then your farm is worth a crap and you can build around him as he declines.

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With Tucker, you worry about complacency after a big contract. He's never struck me as someone who seems hungry, but thats more from observing his mannerisms and not his play, which is not reliable as an indicator moving forward.

---

FWIW- I've actually heard concerns about Tucker's drive and love for baseball long term. The first person I heard this from was in the Astros dugout/clubhouse the year Tucker made his debut.

---

What type of contract is Tucker actually looking for? Is he looking for a 10yr or so contract or will he be good with a 5yr if the money is good?

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I think you'd have to go like 50 M per to get him to sign a 5 year deal.

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I was thinking I saw somewhere that we were wanting to do a 5 year deal and Tucker (or his agent) was wanting a 7 year deal.

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I hope you're right. I don't recall seeing anything like that.

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7 year would be awesome

I'd go 7/210M no problem. I'd even add a player option for that final year.

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I have no idea what the numbers were on either side. I just remember seeing that we were wanting the shorter deal and it might have been more of the sticking point than the overall #.

I wouldn't be surprised if at one point we were wanting to see what Bregman's deal ended up being before finalizing anything with Tucker, but I wonder if that calculus has changed with Bregman's start to the year. As an analytics heavy organization, his long term downward trend can't be making them feel a long deal is a good idea with Bregman.

I would love for the Astros to re-sign Tucker. BUT......I wouldn't go way overboard with the $ and years. Tucker will be a very, very big trade piece if/when we decide to sell this season. The kind of piece that could bring in significant prospects (which our farm desperately needs). I just think it's something the organization will have to be really care with - would they rather have Tucker (and a huge contract) or what he can bring in a trade?

texasaggie2015 said:

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Bowden: Way too early MLB trades I'd like to see happen, plus Luis Arraez trade takeaways - The Athletic

Bowden lists Vlad Guerrero Jr for Joey Loperfido and Kennedy Corona as a trade he would like to see.

If we were hovering around .500, I would consider that. But not right now with where we stand currently. There's a realistic chance we're sellers at the deadline.

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Also, who do we have that Toronto would want?

Wabs said:

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I would love for the Astros to re-sign Tucker. BUT......I wouldn't go way overboard with the $ and years. Tucker will be a very, very big trade piece if/when we decide to sell this season. The kind of piece that could bring in significant prospects (which our farm desperately needs). I just think it's something thew organization will have to be really care with - would they rather have Tucker (and a huge contract) or what he can bring in a trade?

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As fans we have no idea. I do know there's no way you are trading Tucker and getting anything that makes the big league club better this year or next. The bigger question is do you feel good enough about this team as constructed for 2024 and 2025 that you're willing to risk being flat out bad in 2026 and 2027? Or would you rather take a step back this year and next to focus on 2026 and beyond.

I would think if Crane is going to break his rule on contract length it would have to be for a truly special player. It seems silly to talk about Soto but I'd feel better about giving him $450M than giving Tucker $300M. If it comes to it just clear the decks this year of Bregman, Tucker, JV, Pressly and Framber for the prospects you can get. That would put your payroll below $160M. You could give Soto his bag and still be under the luxury tax threshold with a banger farm system.

I think 7/245 (or 250) would be a great deal for both sides.

It is a long-term deal with true money, but only takes him through age 35/36 without the stupid $35M for a 39 year old that seems to be baked into so many bad deals these days.

On a much lighter note

More rings are headed to Philly 💍 pic.twitter.com/yLFfIGyEig

— FAX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFAX) May 6, 2024

As it stands now, I'd trade the following to get at least something back if we were still below .500 at the deadline and determine to

Bregman
Framber
JV
Brown
Chas
Jake
Urquidy
Pressly
And if you don't plan on re-signing him, Tucker

But I'd try like crazy to re-sign Tucker

Build the core around Tucker, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena, Loperfido, Javier, and Garcia

I seem to recall the rumors that the veterans were not enamored with Tuck and his effort when he first came up to the bigs.

tjack16 said:

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As it stands now, I'd trade the following to get at least something back if we were still below .500 at the deadline and determine to

Bregman
Framber
JV
Brown
Chas
Jake
Urquidy
Pressly
And if you don't plan on re-signing him, Tucker

But I'd try like crazy to re-sign Tucker

Build the core around Tucker, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena, Loperfido, Javier, and Garcia

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including Loperfido in your "core" to build around is absolutely hilarious. He may in fact be a huge part of this team down the round, but to even think anything like that in those terms is ridiculous. He has had exactly 15 at bats in MLB. He isn't even considered a top 5 prospect according to the Astros website. pump the brakes with Joey L.

AustinCountyAg said:

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tjack16 said:

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As it stands now, I'd trade the following to get at least something back if we were still below .500 at the deadline and determine to

Bregman
Framber
JV
Brown
Chas
Jake
Urquidy
Pressly
And if you don't plan on re-signing him, Tucker

But I'd try like crazy to re-sign Tucker

Build the core around Tucker, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena, Loperfido, Javier, and Garcia

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including Loperfido in your "core" to build around is absolutely hilarious. He may in fact be a huge part of this team down the round, but to even think anything like that in those terms is ridiculous. He has had exactly 15 at bats in MLB. He isn't even considered a top 5 prospect according to the Astros website. pump the brakes with Joey L.

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While yes I agree, I see him more as an unknown with higher potential than some of the "known commodities" so I'd keep him. Probably shouldnt have said build the core around… but I'd like to see what he can do with 2-3 full seasons

I'm not arguing any point. Just stating what I remember hearing.

Of course, I read all the time on this thread about Tucker loafing etc.

I get that. I am just discussing how relevant that is now.

perhaps in part due to the popularity of Josh Reddick

Tucker was supposed to replace Josh --- and ultimately he did

Farmer1906 said:

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MAROON said:

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I seem to recall the rumors that the veterans were not enamored with Tuck and his effort when he first came up to the bigs.

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That was 6 years ago. It's not shocking a 21-year-old didn't have the work ethic of a bunch of veterans. Brantley took him under his wing. The results from the last 3-4 years should show you he's either so supremely talented that he doesn't have to work hard or he's figured it out since his rookie year. Which seems more likely?

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I have grown to really like Tucker as a player. Seems grounded and focused on being a great player. I'm not on social media, but I don't remember seeing posts of his daily offseason workouts like the Astros third baseman who now owns majority stock in the struggle bus business. I like the low key approach. I would probably trust him more than Bregman or Valdez in terms of long term commitment and value return.

Yeah, like I said, the first person who told me that was a pretty prominent figure in that clubhouse around the time he made his debut. This person flat out said he didn't think he would make it long term. Obviously, Tucker proved him wrong. I can't speak to his work ethic in 2024- but I have been told (as recently as the beginning of this year) that he tends to rub some people the wrong way. Not saying he's a problem by any stretch. It's just a personality clash thing with some guys. Probably the same thing we've all run into in the workplace.

I mean I can't say I blame him. I'd be fine with about 8 all star level years, make my fortune and retire in my early-mid 30s

Especially if I got a ring and alot of accolades

Sounds like Dusty and Chas all over again

tjack16 said:

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As it stands now, I'd trade the following to get at least something back if we were still below .500 at the deadline and determine to

Bregman
Framber
JV
Brown
Chas
Jake
Urquidy
Pressly
And if you don't plan on re-signing him, Tucker

But I'd try like crazy to re-sign Tucker

Build the core around Tucker, Alvarez, Diaz, Pena, Loperfido, Javier, and Garcia

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IF we are going to be sellers, my untouchables would be Altuve, Yordan, Pena, and Javier. Diaz would be close to untouchable, but I'd listen if someone wants to send a very generous offer (unlikely). It would be nice if someone woulld be dumb enough to take Hader and his contract but that isn't going to happen unfortunately....