That would be dirt cheap for Maton over 3 years, so absolutely that deal.

Terminus Est said:

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Can't blame Neris, he's had a nice little career money wise, but he can still double the $29,000,000 or so he's earned to date in the next few seasons.

If Crane is still feeling spicy; I wouldn't be opposed to a three year contract for 10,000,000 per season if there were vesting criteria for the 3rd.

Neris/Abreu/Pressly/Hader would be mind numbingly awesome.

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If he doesn't regress, it's great. If he regresses, it's a Montero deal.

AggieJ2002 said:

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The Padres' Director of Analytics gave a talk to my work today. Most of us stat nerds are already aware of a lot of what they are doing. Maybe old news to some, but the only thing I hadn't seen before was this pitching machine that is basically an AI pitching robot. From what I understand a lot of teams are still in the process of implementing and not many used last year. This could be a game changer, paired with Rhapsodo, to allow batters to take as many simulated ABs against pitchers as they want before facing them live in a game. Freaking insane ...

https://vimeo.com/533935376

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That's badass. I wonder what the pricetag on that is. It's gotta be north of $100K, right? I wouldn't be shocked if it were $500K.

Do they take klarna?

Looked it up online and they almost refuse to say. I did see somewhere about 5 figure per month lease.

That's fair. I'm just optimistic (maybe just hopeful) that we made a tweak somewhere and 2022 is the new norm. Haha

A 3 year deal of 8M+/yr is a hard pass for Neris due to age and regression.

A short deal would be an interesting roll of the dice, but you will absolutely be burned by a 3 year deal.

I do wish we had one more proven commodity middle reliever/set-up man (like the hypothetical Maton proposal above), but we need to avoid any more large contracts for the bullpen.

texasaggie2015 said:

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That's fair. I'm just optimistic (maybe just hopeful) that we made a tweak somewhere and 2022 is the new norm. Haha

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I'm not sure 2022 is his norm, but I think he did figure something out in the 2nd half for sure. I think that's probably closer to what he could be on a consistent basis.

texasaggie2015 said:

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If Montero can just be average that would help tremendously. Just don't be a liability and we're okay.

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That's how I feel too. Just don't be a 4.50+ ERA guy.

As long as Abreu, Pressly and Hader pitch to their normal level our bullpen will be elite. We just need the other guys to not implode

Here is how I see the bullpen.

Pressly & Abreu will be able to match what they did in 2023 but in the 7th and 8th instead of the 8th and 9th.

Hader replaces Neris's production, but just in the 9th instead of the 7th. I think that is about a push for the regular season due to just how great Neris was last year.

Here are the top contributors after the big 3:
Montero - 67.1 IP
Maton - 66.0 IP
Stanek - 50.2 IP
Martinez - 43.0 IP
Graveman - 22.1 IP
Urquidy - 16.1 IP
Mushinski - 14.2 IP
Blanco - 14.0 IP
Kuhnel - 9.2 IP
Bielak - 9.1 IP
Gage - 6.2 IP
Sousa - 6.1 IP

7 of those 12 are back. I think it's safe to say every single one of the returning guys can ve expected to match what they did in 2023 (not a huge ask)

The 5 guys needing to be replaced account for 155.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 4.09 SIERA, & 0.5 WAR.

We just need a couple of the options below to hit:

• Sousa, Mushinski, and/or Martinez to take a step forward
• Urquidy, Blanco, Bielak, and/or Garcia (2nd half) take on a regular long relief role
• The newcomers Coleman, Cronin, & Ortega work out
• Potential call-ups of Whitley, Gordon, Arrighetti, Kouba, or Blubaugh

With Hader/Pressly/Abreu, our backend trio is elite.

We can expect Coleman to be in the mix, plus Montero.

Hader essentially replaces Neris in the backend trio from last year (obvious upgrade but from a numbers standpoint)

I feel like we need one more Maton/Stanek replacement (not elite but reliable) to truly like our bullpen. It may be easier to get that through trade than through FA (like Coleman).

If we sign another OF, we might be able to turn back to trading Meyers for an arm.

Here is a list of players who are eligible for Hall of Fame voting in 2025 🗳️

Who's getting in? pic.twitter.com/iiYuT9cl3g

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) January 24, 2024

Ichiro and CC first ballot.

Pedroia maybe eventually. Granderson and Hernandez also fringe

WAR 47.2
BA .249
OPS .803
OPS+ 113
344 HR
937 RBI
1800 hits

Nope


WAR 51.9
BA .298
OPS .805
OPS+ 113
140 HR
725 RBI
1805 hits

Nope

WAR 62.5
251 - 161
Played for 19 years so a lot of counting stats to pad WAR
Whip 1.26
ERA 3.74
FIP 3.78
Yankee so guaranteed 97% first ballot

WAR 59.7
169 wins
ERA 3.42
FIP 3.52

Not getting in. Hall of good. He's got almost the same stat line as Roy O and that went nowhere.

Also, according to FanGraphs, the team is only ~$3 million under the second CBT threshold. Would they really cross that for a marginal upgrade? Makes more logical sense to see if one of the three kids can play if they force the team's hand.

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) January 24, 2024

Not the "official" one but Lookie at #1 and #3.

LF #top10rightnow on @MLBnetwork

Not too soon for Carter here. Nimmo was made eligible LF after Bader signed. He'd have been like #6 CF. No Schwarber. I think he'll DH. (Alvarez will LF more & not-as-bad, is the difference.)

Just missed: Reynolds, Noot, Rooker, Yoshida, Steer pic.twitter.com/cbgKfKklju

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) January 25, 2024

Edit: looks like shredder has Chas at 5. Haven't gotten to Yordan but he's #1 and he's not even close.

Thank you Dusty.

All I do is Nguyen said:

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I know Dusty is gone, but I am curious as to how long it will take for us to stop blaming him or mentioning him on a regular basis.

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I said the same thing a few days ago. I wish everyone could just put him in the rearview mirror and look forward. Also, this is coming from a guy who HAMMERED Donkey all the time. I'm done with it as it serves absolutely no purpose.

What is your plan if they have a down year ?

The Porkchop Express said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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What is your plan if they have a down year ?

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Exactly. When Yanier hits .220 for the first half of the season, it will be Dusty's fault for not playing him more. We do love our scapegoats, don't we?

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