***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

969,482 Views | 11245 Replies | Last: 7 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
The Porkchop Express
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I gotta get back to work, but I'll go ahead and die on my hill. WAR is a bull**** stat that doesn't tell you anything how good a player is. Judging Ichiro by WAR is like judging NOlan Ryan by his win/loss record. Porkchop, over and out.
Ag4life80
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Ag_07 said:

Stanek has good stuff but is so incredibly inconsistent from outing to outing and not reliable.
Ken Giles without a haircut
BadAggie
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Still just surprised Crane pulled the trigger on Hader, and rather pumped.

Easy path would've been to trim payroll to get under the first luxury tax threshold or whatever and count on new manager, starting Diaz to lead to improvement in '24.





redline248
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Ichiro played in an era in which OPS wasn't really important except in fantasy leagues and in Oakland. It doesn't take away the impact he had on games, though. I have posted many times that I think there is value in simply being on base. Ichiro immediately put pressure on opposing pitchers. Not only did he force them to pitch out of the stretch in almost every 1st inning, he also immediately had them worried about the steal. What about the impact a pitch out might have on the next AB? Or the pressure catchers had to make good throws?

Is there a stat that adds the value of a steal to a single? I'm sure analytics knocks a player for being caught and giving up an out. But did slapping singles really hurt his chances to score?

OK, so what about when batting with men on base? His oba jumped 60 points and his OPS 40 points with men in scoring position.

I'm sure we can all go back and forth on him (and other players). However, I truly believe that if he was coming into his prime in today's game he would still be a star. I bet he'd even knock a few more over the fence. Why couldn't he be a Corbin Carroll?
Farmer1906
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Just FYI Ichiro's defense and base running greatly help his WAR. If it was just based on his offense then he'd be below Bregman because the last half of his career was so poor.
Farmer1906
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I believe if Ichiro played today his game would be different. He'd hit 30 bombs a year and still bat 290+. But he didn't so we can only judge on what we have.
redline248
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Farmer1906 said:

Just FYI Ichiro's defense and base running greatly help his WAR. If it was just based on his offense then he'd be below Bregman because the last half of his career was so poor.
He played for 19 years (which obviouslyhelps the counting stats). Haven't many argued that looking at the ~10 prime years, rather than the weighting the waning years too much, is important?

Is Miggy going to get dinged for the tail of his career?

Edit: I didn't dig into Miggy's stats
Farmer1906
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Not as much. He's not immune to WAR dropping. His peak was higher.
yayaggies
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I can't find the article, but years ago I read that Ichiro had a home run rate near the top power hitters when he was the tying or go ahead run late in the game. Gives a good picture of how he could do whatever he wanted as a hitter.

Maybe one of you baseball reference wizards can pull up his late and close stats.
Beat40
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Been quite the evening discussion you boys have been having.
n_touch
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Beat40 said:

Been quite the evening discussion you boys have been having.


Beat40
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I think what has swayed me on the importance of the single is what Altuve has said about some of his offensive approach change.

Altuve has said that OPS of .900 is the new BA of .300.

I think Altuve has the ability to slap singles all over the yard if he wants, but his change in approach tells me he has devalued the single. Not written it off, but devalued it. I think that's the overall consensus of the league too.

I'm not saying that to put ichrio down. Can't change the era he played in.

I was saying it as more of just a on why I think the league, and me as well, have devalued the single quite a bit.
Farmer1906
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The Angels bullpen might not suck. Estevez, Stephenson, Moore, Luis Garcia, & a developing Ben Joyce.



EastCoastAgNc
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Didn't the angels trade away Moore last year?
Mr.Ackar07
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EastCoastAgNc said:

Didn't the angels trade away Moore last year?


Wasn't Moore in Japan?

Way off. That was during Covid. Yes, he was traded to and placed on waivers by the Angels.
tjack16
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10 gold gloves and 3000 hits IMO should be a unanimous hall of famer
Sea Speed
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Venezuelan guy chatted me up at the gym in brazil because I am wearing an astros hat. I'm certain you can guess the first thing that was brought up.
agproducer
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Sea Speed said:

Venezuelan guy chatted me up at the gym in brazil because I am wearing an astros hat. I'm certain you can guess the first thing that was brought up.
I hope it was Altuve.
Sea Speed
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agproducer said:

Sea Speed said:

Venezuelan guy chatted me up at the gym in brazil because I am wearing an astros hat. I'm certain you can guess the first thing that was brought up.
I hope it was Altuve.


Of course.
AggieJ2002
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The Padres' Director of Analytics gave a talk to my work today. Most of us stat nerds are already aware of a lot of what they are doing. Maybe old news to some, but the only thing I hadn't seen before was this pitching machine that is basically an AI pitching robot. From what I understand a lot of teams are still in the process of implementing and not many used last year. This could be a game changer, paired with Rhapsodo, to allow batters to take as many simulated ABs against pitchers as they want before facing them live in a game. Freaking insane ...

https://vimeo.com/533935376
Farmer1906
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Pretty sure the Astros are already doing that.

Edit: Let me clarify. IDK about that particular tool. I just know the Astros take BP and face a machine that throws the same stuff as the starting pitcher they face that day.
The Porkchop Express
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AggieJ2002 said:

The Padres' Director of Analytics gave a talk to my work today. Most of us stat nerds are already aware of a lot of what they are doing. Maybe old news to some, but the only thing I hadn't seen before was this pitching machine that is basically an AI pitching robot. From what I understand a lot of teams are still in the process of implementing and not many used last year. This could be a game changer, paired with Rhapsodo, to allow batters to take as many simulated ABs against pitchers as they want before facing them live in a game. Freaking insane ...

https://vimeo.com/533935376
The A's have named Trajekt Arc as their Opening Day starter.
AggieJ2002
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Yeah I'd be curious if they are or not. I know a lot of teams used iPitch to simulate what players would see, but to me this takes it to another level simulating the release point along with the visual of the pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if most teams hadn't moved on to this as of last season.
Marvin
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AggieJ2002 said:

The Padres' Director of Analytics gave a talk to my work today. Most of us stat nerds are already aware of a lot of what they are doing. Maybe old news to some, but the only thing I hadn't seen before was this pitching machine that is basically an AI pitching robot. From what I understand a lot of teams are still in the process of implementing and not many used last year. This could be a game changer, paired with Rhapsodo, to allow batters to take as many simulated ABs against pitchers as they want before facing them live in a game. Freaking insane ...

https://vimeo.com/533935376


I need this for the man cave. Maybe 60% of the speed, though... haha.
The Porkchop Express
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AggieJ2002 said:

Yeah I'd be curious if they are or not. I know a lot of teams used iPitch to simulate what players would see, but to me this takes it to another level simulating the release point along with the visual of the pitcher. I wouldn't be surprised if most teams hadn't moved on to this as of last season.
This seems way more like cheating than the trash cans.
bearkatag15
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Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Farmer1906
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bearkatag15 said:




The Chas disrespect continues.
Farmer1906
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Neris Market Update

bearkatag15
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That's a lot less than the previous report.
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Farmer1906
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bearkatag15 said:

That's a lot less than the previous report.
I don't think that was ever correct.
bearkatag15
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I love a good Zack Greinke story and this one is good
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Terminus Est
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Can't blame Neris, he's had a nice little career money wise, but he can still double the $29,000,000 or so he's earned to date in the next few seasons.

If Crane is still feeling spicy; I wouldn't be opposed to a three year contract for 10,000,000 per season if there were vesting criteria for the 3rd.

Neris/Abreu/Pressly/Hader would be mind numbingly awesome.
bearkatag15
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I thought the same but doing that probably means they aren't getting another bat.
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Wabs
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Would you rather have Neris at something like $30-32M for 3 years OR Maton for something like $12-14M for 3 years?

<Insert WhyNotBoth.gif>
Ag_07
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bearkatag15 said:

I thought the same but doing that probably means they aren't getting another bat.

Shlt...Give me that BP over a bench bat any day and twice on Sundays.
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