I am weirdly excited to see how the ticket prices drop. Right now Stub Hub has 897 listings and Seat Geek has 704. The cheapest to get in (single) is still over 1K. I am willing to bet it drops by half before the kick.

Anyone who buys tickets beforehand for major events is a sucker or has so much money they don't know what to do with it. With the number of speculators gobbling up everything the prices are absolutely ridiculous through the secondary market up until the time of the event.

I flew to Las Vegas for a convention and planned on staying over a day to watch the Canelo Alvarez-Jermell Charlo fight at TMobile. I love to sit ringside, but the tickets were $6,000/ea. I waited until 45 minutes before the fight started and they were $650/ea.

Farmer1906 said:

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I am weirdly excited to see how the ticket prices drop. Right now Stub Hub has 897 listings and Seat Geek has 704. The cheapest to get in (single) is still over 1K. I am willing to bet it drops by half before the kick.

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That's insane. I bet you can get in for $300 around game time.

The Porkchop Express said:

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Yeah ticket buying is just getting over the mental barrier of FOMO. And it's a lot easier if it's you and your friends, not you and your family because other people (you know who I mean) get their anxiety all over you when you don't have the tickets in hand. Every minute that the clock ticks closer to kickoff or first pitch or whatever is one second closer to the secondary market people having a worthless piece of paper (or digital image) in their possession. You just have to be patient.

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That's why I always meet friends. Save the games with you know who for the A's or Angels.

The playoff games, I always buy day-of, and usually an hour or two before first pitch.

I had 3rd row OF WS tickets for about $700 one year. A few days before they were going for 2-3 times as much.

40 Potential HOFers in 2024

Tier 1: Absolutely no question about it
1. Mike Trout (85 WAR)
2. Justin Verlander (81 WAR)
3. Max Scherzer (73 WAR)

Tier 2: Yes, if they play
4. Clayton Kershaw (76 WAR)
5. Zack Greinke (67 WAR)
6. Joey Votto (59 WAR)

Tier 3: Veterans 30 or over who are well on their way
7. Mookie Betts (59 WAR)
8. Freddie Freeman (58 WAR)
9. Paul Goldschmidt (58 WAR)
10. Jos Altuve (58 WAR)
11. Manny Machado (50 WAR)
12. Nolan Arenado (49 WAR)
13. Francisco Lindor (48 WAR)
14. Bryce Harper (47 WAR)
15. Jos Ramrez (47 WAR)
16. Trea Turner (36 WAR)
17. Alex Bregman (35 WAR)

Tier 4: The Shohei Ohtani zone
18. Shohei Ohtani (32 WAR)

Tier 5: It's not too soon to call them legends
19. Juan Soto (29 WAR)
20. Ronald Acuña, Jr. (27 WAR)

Tier 6: You're going to have to elect some starting pitchers, you know
21. Chris Sale (48 WAR)
22. Gerrit Cole (44 WAR)
23. Someone like Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, or Aaron Nola

Quote:

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You can't compare the way today's starters are used to the days of Bob Gibson, because you can barely compare the way starters are used to the days of CC Sabathia, and he only retired in 2019. You also can't pretend no starting pitchers are ever getting into the Hall again, either.

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Tier 7: Three Cys is an automatic ticket in
24. Jacob deGrom (43 WAR) or Blake Snell (21 WAR)

Quote:

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if you get three, you are in, and is it that hard to see either deGrom or Snell putting together just one more tremendously good season? And if they do, can you really keep them out?

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Tier 8: What if they hit 500 homers?
25. Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton (42 WAR each)
[url=https://stathead.com/tiny/XfuXt][/url]

Quote:

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The only hitters to ever hit 500 homers and not get into Cooperstown are either not yet eligible (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera) or closely identified with the turn-of-the-century PED era. Otherwise, it's long been a guaranteed ticket, and it's not out of reach for either one.

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Tier 9: What about the relievers?
26. Kenley Jansen (23 WAR)
27. Craig Kimbrel (21 WAR)
28. Josh Hader (11 WAR)

Quote:

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You thought evaluating starters was getting hard? Now let's figure out what to do with relievers, given that saves also don't mean what they used to, though some voters still rely on them.

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Tier 10: The young right-now stars
29. Rafael Devers (21 WAR)
30. Yordan Alvarez (19 WAR)
31. Luis Robert Jr. (12 WAR)
32. Julio Rodrguez (11 WAR)
33. Adley Rutschman (11 WAR)
34. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (11 WAR)
35. Spencer Strider (10 WAR)
36. Bobby Witt Jr. (8 WAR)
37. Corbin Carroll (7 WAR)

Quote:

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The oldest of these players are Devers and Alvarez, who will play this season at 27 years old, so it goes without saying that this entire group has a ton of work to do. Then again, if you're eyeballing a list of "best young talents in the game," setting aside the Soto/Acuña deity-level tier, this would be a good place to start, wouldn't it?

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Ummm... how the hell does 26-year-old Kyle Tucker (16.3 WAR) not make this group?

Tier 11: The 2024 debuts
38. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
39. Jackson Holliday
40. Jackson Chourio

Quote:

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If you want to replace Holliday and Chourio with Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews, feel free to. If you think that Wyatt Langford and Colt Keith get their first taste of the Majors on their way to all-time great careers, maybe you're right. The point here isn't that this trio is certain to start Hall of Fame careers this year, because the odds are obviously against all three of them. The point is that we know they're highly talented players who should make their debuts in 2024, and we know that each year, there's a handful of players like Beltr back in 1998 who do just that.

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5 Astros on the list (should be 6).

• JV has a shot as an Astro, but I think most still think Tiger.
• ZG has played for so many he's probably getting no logo.
• Obviously, Altuve is going in as an Astro.
• Bregman is pretty borderline at even having a real shot at making it, but if he does, I assume having 9 years as an Astro would mean we stand a good shot. It'll depend on how his career finishes.
• Yordan from age 22 to 31 (maybe more) very likely means he'll be an Astro if he gets in.

Marvin said:

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I hope the Doyers spend another $100 million this year and force MLB to fix that deferred crap. And that they lose in the first round, of course.

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If the player wants to defer their salary I guess I don't care.

I absolutely hate the team deferring the salary implications. The dodgers are only hit with something like 60% of the $70mm for CBT considerations. So they not only have a ton of extra cash to throw around they have effective extra cap space to work with.

If you want to fix something make the full amount count for the CBT. Or better yet make the tax hit more than 100% of the deferred amount. If they had a tax hit of $70mm or better yet $80-90mm from that contract it would maybe keep them from realizing all this benefit. I say maybe because I don't think LAD really care about the CBT any more than the Mets did last year.

More games to pass the offseason.

Can you name the players with the most playoff home runs in MLB history?

I got 17/17 with 0:22 to spare. The final one stumped me for a good 2 min. I love seeing 30% being Astros, including 2 guys who only played for Houston.

I disagree with the assessment of Kershaw. I think he should be in the absolute category despite the post-season issues.

Beat40 said:

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I disagree with the assessment of Kershaw. I think he should be in the absolute category despite the post-season issues.

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It caught me off guard at first too. But all he's saying is tier 2 are in but we don't know if they're going to be playing in 2024 or not. The point of the list was to identify 40 players playing in 2024.

Farmer1906 said:

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Beat40 said:

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I disagree with the assessment of Kershaw. I think he should be in the absolute category despite the post-season issues.

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It caught me off guard at first too. But all he's saying is tier 2 are in but we don't know if they're going to be playing in 2024 or not. The point of the list was to identify 40 players playing in 2024.

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Gotcha. Misread the way it was written.

Farmer1906 said:

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6. Joey Votto (59 WAR)

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Compare him to Berkman... very similar stats, IMO.

NEWS: The St. Louis Cardinals are set to announce the hiring of Chaim Bloom to the front office in an advisory role, sources tell The Athletic. The Cardinals had been linked to the former Red Sox exec dating back to the beginning of the offseason. #STLCards

— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) January 8, 2024

How much did that set you back? Looks nice. Congrats!

The much more likely Bregman replacement:

Quote:

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"Dezenzo is one internal option [to replace Bregman] with a green arrow up entering 2024," Pontes wrote. "A classic Astros late-round steal, Dezenzo hit .304/.383/.531 with 18 home runs and 22 stolen bases across High-A and Double-A in 2023. His profile is driven by his plus-plus raw power and ability to drive the ball out to any part of the field. Dezenzo's 107.9 mph 90th percentile exit velocity was in the top 99th percentile among minor league hitters.

"Theres some swing and miss in Dezenzo's game, but he balances approach, contact and plus-plus power well."

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https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/zach-dezenzo-astros-alex-bregman-18592087.php

How much more will Alex likely want? Maybe it's moreso the number of years being the issue, but Astros fans would melt so hard over trading Bregs.

I would too. The rumor is he wants 300 M. I don't think he'll get anything close to that. The Astros have never publicly offered anything over 160 M. If you believe Randy McIlvoy we upped it to 210 M for a 27 year old Correa. Who knows if that's true, but I'm pretty damn sure weren't not giving 31 year old Bregman anything close.

Edt:
Spotrac has Bregman's Market Value at

• 9 yrs, $286,170,327
• Avg. Salary: $31,796,703

From Jim Bowden in the athletic:

If I represented Bregman, I'd argue that he should be paid more than (shortstop) Xander Bogaerts, whom the Padres signed to an 11-year, $280 million deal at an older age (30) than Bregman is now. (He turns 30 in March.) The Astros would likely argue that the Bogaerts deal was a "bad" contract and should be ignored, and could counter with Nolan Arenado's eight-year, $260 million deal.

Bregman will probably get something between the two, but I'm not sure the Astros will be the team to give it to him.

Giants emerge as favorites to land LHP Shōta Imanaga, per @Feinsand pic.twitter.com/1ISK0y1w2R

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) January 8, 2024

Nice! I bid on that one too but lost.

So he's not going to SF?

Jackal99 said:

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How much did that set you back? Looks nice. Congrats!

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$205. No idea what they run on the open market, but for some reason of all the swag they had there Wagner was the one I had to have.

That seems really reasonable. Well done.

We won this as the only bidder in December. Came before Christmas. Yes, we paid the framing and glad we did as it's really well done.

projected 2024 wins right now
(via fangraphs, rounded):

98 Braves
97
96
95
94
93
92 Dodgers
91
90 Astros
89 Yankees
88
87
86 Blue Jays
85 Phillies, Cardinals, Mariners, Rays, Twins
84 Mets
83 Orioles
82 Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Red Sox
81
80 Padres, Brewers, Guardians,…

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) January 8, 2024

AL Postseason would look like this assuming tiebreaker is in order.

1. Astros
BYE

4. Blue Jays
5. Mariners

2. Yankees
BYE

3. Twins
6. Rays

Farmer1906 said:

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projected 2024 wins right now
(via fangraphs, rounded):

98 Braves
97
96
95
94
93
92 Dodgers
91
90 Astros
89 Yankees
88
87
86 Blue Jays
85 Phillies, Cardinals, Mariners, Rays, Twins
84 Mets
83 Orioles
82 Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Red Sox
81
80 Padres, Brewers, Guardians,…

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) January 8, 2024

AL Postseason would look like this assuming tiebreaker is in order.

1. Astros
BYE

4. Blue Jays
5. Mariners

2. Yankees
BYE

3. Twins
6. Rays

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Why are these projections down on the Rangers? Honestly surprised.

Those projections always show very low win totals. I'd add about 5 wins to most of those teams