I am weirdly excited to see how the ticket prices drop. Right now Stub Hub has 897 listings and Seat Geek has 704. The cheapest to get in (single) is still over 1K. I am willing to bet it drops by half before the kick.
***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]
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Last: 8 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
Anyone who buys tickets beforehand for major events is a sucker or has so much money they don't know what to do with it. With the number of speculators gobbling up everything the prices are absolutely ridiculous through the secondary market up until the time of the event.
I flew to Las Vegas for a convention and planned on staying over a day to watch the Canelo Alvarez-Jermell Charlo fight at TMobile. I love to sit ringside, but the tickets were $6,000/ea. I waited until 45 minutes before the fight started and they were $650/ea.
I flew to Las Vegas for a convention and planned on staying over a day to watch the Canelo Alvarez-Jermell Charlo fight at TMobile. I love to sit ringside, but the tickets were $6,000/ea. I waited until 45 minutes before the fight started and they were $650/ea.
Farmer1906 said:
I am weirdly excited to see how the ticket prices drop. Right now Stub Hub has 897 listings and Seat Geek has 704. The cheapest to get in (single) is still over 1K. I am willing to bet it drops by half before the kick.
That's insane. I bet you can get in for $300 around game time.
Yeah ticket buying is just getting over the mental barrier of FOMO. And it's a lot easier if it's you and your friends, not you and your family because other people (you know who I mean) get their anxiety all over you when you don't have the tickets in hand. Every minute that the clock ticks closer to kickoff or first pitch or whatever is one second closer to the secondary market people having a worthless piece of paper (or digital image) in their possession. You just have to be patient.
That's why I always meet friends. Save the games with you know who for the A's or Angels.The Porkchop Express said:
Yeah ticket buying is just getting over the mental barrier of FOMO. And it's a lot easier if it's you and your friends, not you and your family because other people (you know who I mean) get their anxiety all over you when you don't have the tickets in hand. Every minute that the clock ticks closer to kickoff or first pitch or whatever is one second closer to the secondary market people having a worthless piece of paper (or digital image) in their possession. You just have to be patient.
The playoff games, I always buy day-of, and usually an hour or two before first pitch.
I had 3rd row OF WS tickets for about $700 one year. A few days before they were going for 2-3 times as much.
40 Potential HOFers in 2024
Tier 1: Absolutely no question about it
1. Mike Trout (85 WAR)
2. Justin Verlander (81 WAR)
3. Max Scherzer (73 WAR)
Tier 2: Yes, if they play
4. Clayton Kershaw (76 WAR)
5. Zack Greinke (67 WAR)
6. Joey Votto (59 WAR)
Tier 3: Veterans 30 or over who are well on their way
7. Mookie Betts (59 WAR)
8. Freddie Freeman (58 WAR)
9. Paul Goldschmidt (58 WAR)
10. Jos Altuve (58 WAR)
11. Manny Machado (50 WAR)
12. Nolan Arenado (49 WAR)
13. Francisco Lindor (48 WAR)
14. Bryce Harper (47 WAR)
15. Jos Ramrez (47 WAR)
16. Trea Turner (36 WAR)
17. Alex Bregman (35 WAR)
Tier 4: The Shohei Ohtani zone
18. Shohei Ohtani (32 WAR)
Tier 5: It's not too soon to call them legends
19. Juan Soto (29 WAR)
20. Ronald Acuña, Jr. (27 WAR)
Tier 6: You're going to have to elect some starting pitchers, you know
21. Chris Sale (48 WAR)
22. Gerrit Cole (44 WAR)
23. Someone like Zack Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, or Aaron Nola
Tier 7: Three Cys is an automatic ticket inQuote:
You can't compare the way today's starters are used to the days of Bob Gibson, because you can barely compare the way starters are used to the days of CC Sabathia, and he only retired in 2019. You also can't pretend no starting pitchers are ever getting into the Hall again, either.
24. Jacob deGrom (43 WAR) or Blake Snell (21 WAR)
Tier 8: What if they hit 500 homers?Quote:
if you get three, you are in, and is it that hard to see either deGrom or Snell putting together just one more tremendously good season? And if they do, can you really keep them out?
25. Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton (42 WAR each)
[url=https://stathead.com/tiny/XfuXt][/url]
Tier 9: What about the relievers?Quote:
The only hitters to ever hit 500 homers and not get into Cooperstown are either not yet eligible (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera) or closely identified with the turn-of-the-century PED era. Otherwise, it's long been a guaranteed ticket, and it's not out of reach for either one.
26. Kenley Jansen (23 WAR)
27. Craig Kimbrel (21 WAR)
28. Josh Hader (11 WAR)
Tier 10: The young right-now starsQuote:
You thought evaluating starters was getting hard? Now let's figure out what to do with relievers, given that saves also don't mean what they used to, though some voters still rely on them.
29. Rafael Devers (21 WAR)
30. Yordan Alvarez (19 WAR)
31. Luis Robert Jr. (12 WAR)
32. Julio Rodrguez (11 WAR)
33. Adley Rutschman (11 WAR)
34. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (11 WAR)
35. Spencer Strider (10 WAR)
36. Bobby Witt Jr. (8 WAR)
37. Corbin Carroll (7 WAR)
Ummm... how the hell does 26-year-old Kyle Tucker (16.3 WAR) not make this group?Quote:
The oldest of these players are Devers and Alvarez, who will play this season at 27 years old, so it goes without saying that this entire group has a ton of work to do. Then again, if you're eyeballing a list of "best young talents in the game," setting aside the Soto/Acuña deity-level tier, this would be a good place to start, wouldn't it?
Tier 11: The 2024 debuts
38. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
39. Jackson Holliday
40. Jackson Chourio
Quote:
If you want to replace Holliday and Chourio with Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews, feel free to. If you think that Wyatt Langford and Colt Keith get their first taste of the Majors on their way to all-time great careers, maybe you're right. The point here isn't that this trio is certain to start Hall of Fame careers this year, because the odds are obviously against all three of them. The point is that we know they're highly talented players who should make their debuts in 2024, and we know that each year, there's a handful of players like Beltr back in 1998 who do just that.
--
5 Astros on the list (should be 6).
- JV has a shot as an Astro, but I think most still think Tiger.
- ZG has played for so many he's probably getting no logo.
- Obviously, Altuve is going in as an Astro.
- Bregman is pretty borderline at even having a real shot at making it, but if he does, I assume having 9 years as an Astro would mean we stand a good shot. It'll depend on how his career finishes.
- Yordan from age 22 to 31 (maybe more) very likely means he'll be an Astro if he gets in.
Marvin said:
I hope the Doyers spend another $100 million this year and force MLB to fix that deferred crap. And that they lose in the first round, of course.
If the player wants to defer their salary I guess I don't care.
I absolutely hate the team deferring the salary implications. The dodgers are only hit with something like 60% of the $70mm for CBT considerations. So they not only have a ton of extra cash to throw around they have effective extra cap space to work with.
If you want to fix something make the full amount count for the CBT. Or better yet make the tax hit more than 100% of the deferred amount. If they had a tax hit of $70mm or better yet $80-90mm from that contract it would maybe keep them from realizing all this benefit. I say maybe because I don't think LAD really care about the CBT any more than the Mets did last year.
More games to pass the offseason.
Can you name the players with the most playoff home runs in MLB history?
I got 17/17 with 0:22 to spare. The final one stumped me for a good 2 min. I love seeing 30% being Astros, including 2 guys who only played for Houston.
Can you name the players with the most playoff home runs in MLB history?
I got 17/17 with 0:22 to spare. The final one stumped me for a good 2 min. I love seeing 30% being Astros, including 2 guys who only played for Houston.
I'm bringing $300 and a willingness to walk away.Farmer1906 said:
I am weirdly excited to see how the ticket prices drop. Right now Stub Hub has 897 listings and Seat Geek has 704. The cheapest to get in (single) is still over 1K. I am willing to bet it drops by half before the kick.
I disagree with the assessment of Kershaw. I think he should be in the absolute category despite the post-season issues.
It caught me off guard at first too. But all he's saying is tier 2 are in but we don't know if they're going to be playing in 2024 or not. The point of the list was to identify 40 players playing in 2024.Beat40 said:
I disagree with the assessment of Kershaw. I think he should be in the absolute category despite the post-season issues.
Gotcha. Misread the way it was written.Farmer1906 said:It caught me off guard at first too. But all he's saying is tier 2 are in but we don't know if they're going to be playing in 2024 or not. The point of the list was to identify 40 players playing in 2024.Beat40 said:
I disagree with the assessment of Kershaw. I think he should be in the absolute category despite the post-season issues.
Farmer1906 said:
6. Joey Votto (59 WAR)
Compare him to Berkman... very similar stats, IMO.
Successful trip to Moody Gardens last weekend with the kids I'd say.
NEWS: The St. Louis Cardinals are set to announce the hiring of Chaim Bloom to the front office in an advisory role, sources tell The Athletic. The Cardinals had been linked to the former Red Sox exec dating back to the beginning of the offseason. #STLCards
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) January 8, 2024
I found this interesting regarding the Matt Chapman market.
https://theathletic.com/5185712/2024/01/08/rosenthal-notebook-matt-chapman-giants/
https://theathletic.com/5185712/2024/01/08/rosenthal-notebook-matt-chapman-giants/
We're just a tick above a month away from pitchers and catchers reporting. I hope we'd be willing to swoop in at the last minute if the market continues to stay slow. If we can get him at <20 M (plus some incentivies) for ~4 years, I think it would be worth it. We'd lose a pick thanks to the QO (probably hurting his market too), but we'd more than make it up by trading away Bregman.Quote:
One club, in considering free-agent third baseman Matt Chapman, researched the question: What was the biggest free-agent contract for a position player who batted under .250 with fewer than 20 homers in his platform season?
Those numbers apply to Chapman, who batted .240 with 17 homers for the Toronto Blue Jays last season. And the answer to the club's question turned out to be Curtis Granderson, who signed a four-year, $60 million deal with the Mets after batting .232 with 18 homers for the New York Yankees in 2013.
Chapman, entering his age-31 season, almost certainly will get more than $60 million, and not simply because of inflation. He is a four-time Gold Glove winner who has averaged 149 games in his five full seasons. And while he batted .205 with a .659 OPS after April 30, in part due to a right-middle finger issue that hampered him in the final two months, his hard-hit and exit-velocity numbers for the season nonetheless were among the best in the league.
How much did that set you back? Looks nice. Congrats!
The much more likely Bregman replacement:
https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/zach-dezenzo-astros-alex-bregman-18592087.phpQuote:
"Dezenzo is one internal option [to replace Bregman] with a green arrow up entering 2024," Pontes wrote. "A classic Astros late-round steal, Dezenzo hit .304/.383/.531 with 18 home runs and 22 stolen bases across High-A and Double-A in 2023. His profile is driven by his plus-plus raw power and ability to drive the ball out to any part of the field. Dezenzo's 107.9 mph 90th percentile exit velocity was in the top 99th percentile among minor league hitters.
"Theres some swing and miss in Dezenzo's game, but he balances approach, contact and plus-plus power well."
How much more will Alex likely want? Maybe it's moreso the number of years being the issue, but Astros fans would melt so hard over trading Bregs.
I would too. The rumor is he wants 300 M. I don't think he'll get anything close to that. The Astros have never publicly offered anything over 160 M. If you believe Randy McIlvoy we upped it to 210 M for a 27 year old Correa. Who knows if that's true, but I'm pretty damn sure weren't not giving 31 year old Bregman anything close.
Edt:
Spotrac has Bregman's Market Value at
From Jim Bowden in the athletic:
If I represented Bregman, I'd argue that he should be paid more than (shortstop) Xander Bogaerts, whom the Padres signed to an 11-year, $280 million deal at an older age (30) than Bregman is now. (He turns 30 in March.) The Astros would likely argue that the Bogaerts deal was a "bad" contract and should be ignored, and could counter with Nolan Arenado's eight-year, $260 million deal.
Bregman will probably get something between the two, but I'm not sure the Astros will be the team to give it to him.
Edt:
Spotrac has Bregman's Market Value at
- 9 yrs, $286,170,327
- Avg. Salary: $31,796,703
From Jim Bowden in the athletic:
If I represented Bregman, I'd argue that he should be paid more than (shortstop) Xander Bogaerts, whom the Padres signed to an 11-year, $280 million deal at an older age (30) than Bregman is now. (He turns 30 in March.) The Astros would likely argue that the Bogaerts deal was a "bad" contract and should be ignored, and could counter with Nolan Arenado's eight-year, $260 million deal.
Bregman will probably get something between the two, but I'm not sure the Astros will be the team to give it to him.
Giants emerge as favorites to land LHP Shōta Imanaga, per @Feinsand pic.twitter.com/1ISK0y1w2R
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) January 8, 2024
I had a successful trip in December…
Nice! I bid on that one too but lost.
So he's not going to SF?
$205. No idea what they run on the open market, but for some reason of all the swag they had there Wagner was the one I had to have.Jackal99 said:
How much did that set you back? Looks nice. Congrats!
That seems really reasonable. Well done.
Only thing that would make that Wagner memorabilia better is if it was a old 90s gold star and navy blue uni that he rocked.
This unis with the gold brim hat are severely underrated and in my book are a top 3 Astro uni/color scheme.
This unis with the gold brim hat are severely underrated and in my book are a top 3 Astro uni/color scheme.
The gold was the Sunday cap, right?
I agree. This is the look I think of when I think of Wanger.
I agree. This is the look I think of when I think of Wanger.
Didn't matter the Jersey, I more so remember the red and black….but the defining feature to me which your photo lacks is the absolutely massive thighs. That dude was built like rock
We won this as the only bidder in December. Came before Christmas. Yes, we paid the framing and glad we did as it's really well done.
projected 2024 wins right now
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) January 8, 2024
(via fangraphs, rounded):
98 Braves
97
96
95
94
93
92 Dodgers
91
90 Astros
89 Yankees
88
87
86 Blue Jays
85 Phillies, Cardinals, Mariners, Rays, Twins
84 Mets
83 Orioles
82 Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Red Sox
81
80 Padres, Brewers, Guardians,…
AL Postseason would look like this assuming tiebreaker is in order.
1. Astros
BYE
4. Blue Jays
5. Mariners
2. Yankees
BYE
3. Twins
6. Rays
Farmer1906 said:projected 2024 wins right now
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) January 8, 2024
(via fangraphs, rounded):
98 Braves
97
96
95
94
93
92 Dodgers
91
90 Astros
89 Yankees
88
87
86 Blue Jays
85 Phillies, Cardinals, Mariners, Rays, Twins
84 Mets
83 Orioles
82 Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Red Sox
81
80 Padres, Brewers, Guardians,…
AL Postseason would look like this assuming tiebreaker is in order.
1. Astros
BYE
4. Blue Jays
5. Mariners
2. Yankees
BYE
3. Twins
6. Rays
Why are these projections down on the Rangers? Honestly surprised.
Those projections are weird. Always double check your statistical models with a sanity check.
Only one team is going to hit 90 wins in the AL?
Only one team is going to hit 90 wins in the AL?
Those projections always show very low win totals. I'd add about 5 wins to most of those teams
College ball wrapped up.
NFL Playoffs and the Superbowl up at the plate.
A&M Baseball on deck.
Spring training in the hole.
Getting closer...
NFL Playoffs and the Superbowl up at the plate.
A&M Baseball on deck.
Spring training in the hole.
Getting closer...