Braves and Dodgers sure have spent a crap load of money not to be projected to win 100 games.

A lot probably has to do with pitching.

Look at their 2023 (looking at guys who started)
1. Dunning - 172.2 IP - career high in IP. Greatly exceeded his fIP, xFIP, & xERA #s. Due regression
2. Gray - 157.1 IP - hadn't thrown that many inning since 2018 (26 years old). Slightly exceeded his FIP, xFIP, xERA. Due mild regression, ultimately wasn't great in '23.
3. Heaney - 147.1 IP - hadn't thrown that many inning since 2018 (26 years old). Slightly exceeded his FIP, xFIP, xERA. Due mild regression, ultimately wasn't great in '23.
4. Eovaldi - 144 IP - arguably his best season of his career at age 34. Slightly exceeded his FIP, xFIP, xERA. Due mild regression. My guess is he won't be able to repeat it.
5. Martin Perez - 141.2 IP - gone
6. Montgomery - 67.2 IP - gone
7. Bradford - 56.0 IP - wasn't very good, but underperformed to his FIP, xFIP, & xERA. He's young enough that he might be able to take the next step. First positive on the list.
8. Max Scherzer - 45.0 IP - injured and entering his age 39 season. Solid #s in a limited 2023.
9. Jacob deGrom - 30.1 IP - coming off of TJ. Unsure when he will return and how the 36-year-old will respond.

They have to find a way to replace over 200 IP, possibly more if there is an injury or someone can't match their 2023. Their current plan is Bradford (ERA north of 5), 2 old guys hopefully coming off injury, and a 3rd arm coming off an injury in Tyler Mahle. They were 7th in SP WAR in 2023, I would expect that # to drop significantly, especially if there is any regression at all.

Then you get to the bullpen. They were 23rd in WAR, 24th in ERA, & 22nd in FIP & xFIP. They lost Chapman, Smith, Perez (split SP/RP), Stratton, & Ragans (midseason trade). They added Yates, who has a -0.4 WAR over the last 3 seasons. They didn't address this at all yet and somehow one of the worst units will be worse.

I won't go as deep on the offensive side.

They lost:

• Garver (2+ WAR in a part-time role)
• Jankowski (1. WAR OF UTL)
• Hedges (0.8 WAR for his catching framing - could hurt pitching without him)
• Grossman (0.4 WAR for part-time corner OF)

Not a ton but not nothing. They should be able to mostly replace internally. They have some very interest kids on the farm ready to get a shot.

Carter semi-stands out as a guy who greatly outperformed expected metrics. He's probably not a 180 wRC+ type even in a platoon role, but that doesn't mean he can't be good in 24.

I will say Garcia, Seager, Semien, Heim, Jung, Tavereas, Garver (gone), & Jankowski (gone) all had their best seasons of their career or very close to it. It makes sense for a few of the very young guys. My guess is guys like Seager, Semien, & Garcia all take a small step back.


I think generally, Fangraphs underestimate top teams and overestimate bottom teams. Its not like they won 100 games last year. Fangraphs is much lower on Baltimore than Arlington.

I think we go 94-68, and the Rangers go 92-70

We might start hearing arbitration news next week.

Here is who is arbitration eligible with MLBTR estimates

Framber Valdez - 12.1 M (2)
Kyle Tucker - 12.6 M (2)
Jose Urquidy - 3.5 M (2)
Mauricio Dubon - 3.1 M (1)
Luis Garcia - 2.1 M (1)
Bryan Abreu - 2.0 M (1)
Chas McCormick - 3.1 M (1)

tjack16 said:

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I think we go 94-68, and the Rangers go 92-70

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I honestly don't know where the Rangers will end up. As Farmer laid out, their pitching appears to be a problem. I believe they could win anywhere between 75 and 95 games next year.

It's very possible they don't make the post-season this upcoming season if Seattle adds at least a little offense to their team.

Beat40 said:

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tjack16 said:

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I think we go 94-68, and the Rangers go 92-70

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I honestly don't know where the Rangers will end up. As Farmer laid out, their pitching appears to be a problem. I believe they could win anywhere between 75 and 95 games next year.

It's very possible they don't make the post-season this upcoming season if Seattle adds at least a little offense to their team.

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Following the pattern of Bochy with the Giants, they would win the world series in even years (2010, 2012, 2014) and I think they completely missed the postseason in 2011 and 2013. Lets hope they don't follow the trend of winning multiple world series.

Ag_07 said:

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To be honest the way things are going I'm not sure anyone can be barred from entering the US.

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SECcess12 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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projected 2024 wins right now
(via fangraphs, rounded):

98 Braves
97
96
95
94
93
92 Dodgers
91
90 Astros
89 Yankees
88
87
86 Blue Jays
85 Phillies, Cardinals, Mariners, Rays, Twins
84 Mets
83 Orioles
82 Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Red Sox
81
80 Padres, Brewers, Guardians,…

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) January 8, 2024

AL Postseason would look like this assuming tiebreaker is in order.

1. Astros
BYE

4. Blue Jays
5. Mariners

2. Yankees
BYE

3. Twins
6. Rays

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Why are these projections down on the Rangers? Honestly surprised.

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Not offering if I agree or disagree, but Vegas seems to be looking at the Rangers like a next tier team that got hot at the right time and is pretty likely to revert towards the mean.

FrioAg 00 said:

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SECcess12 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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projected 2024 wins right now
(via fangraphs, rounded):

98 Braves
97
96
95
94
93
92 Dodgers
91
90 Astros
89 Yankees
88
87
86 Blue Jays
85 Phillies, Cardinals, Mariners, Rays, Twins
84 Mets
83 Orioles
82 Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Red Sox
81
80 Padres, Brewers, Guardians,…

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) January 8, 2024

AL Postseason would look like this assuming tiebreaker is in order.

1. Astros
BYE

4. Blue Jays
5. Mariners

2. Yankees
BYE

3. Twins
6. Rays

---

Why are these projections down on the Rangers? Honestly surprised.

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Not offering if I agree or disagree, but Vegas seems to be looking at the Rangers like a next tier team that got hot at the right time and is pretty likely to revert towards the mean.

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I would probably agree if they didn't have Bochy. Maybe I'm looking at wins too literally versus Divison/Postseason success.

What makes you say that? Most odds I've seen have them just behind us and in the top 5-10 area.

2024 World Series odds (@DKSportsbook):

+380 Dodgers
+700 Braves
+900 Yankees
+1000 Astros
+1100 Phillies, Rangers
+1600 Orioles
+1800 Blue Jays
+2200 Mariners
+2500 Twins
+2800 Cubs, Mets
+3000 Cardinals
+3500 Red Sox, Dbacks, Rays, Padres
+4000 Reds, Giants
+4500 Brewers
+6000… pic.twitter.com/hmsTBAvtwO

— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) January 8, 2024

Tied for 5th best odds, right after winning it all.

Projected second in wins within their division.

I'm. It saying it's predicting huge drop off - but it's certainly not showing them as likely to repeat.

.@Ken_Rosenthal guesses that Jordan Montgomery currently has more suitors than 2-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell 🌶️

Watch Live on YouTube!
▶️ https://t.co/hJ2ZJv6iUR pic.twitter.com/FSpYqYXzd1

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) January 9, 2024

Josh Hader is seeking a record-breaking contract for a closer, says @Ken_Rosenthal

▶️ https://t.co/hJ2ZJv6iUR pic.twitter.com/3qvssWzOfm

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) January 9, 2024

"It would bar him automatically from the country"@Ken_Rosenthal breaks down why the charges against Wander Franco could end his contract with the @RaysBaseball

▶️ https://t.co/hJ2ZJv6iUR pic.twitter.com/60kYLMZeil

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) January 9, 2024

Worth a watch if you think Berkman deserves to be in the HOF.

"Baltimore is certainly a team with the prospects to get this done"@Ken_Rosenthal says the White Sox are working to get the best possible deal for RHP Dylan Cease

▶️ https://t.co/fvF4bC3FeS pic.twitter.com/o09PC6RJJd

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) January 9, 2024

It would suck for them to get him

In all the Cease discussion, why is not one talking about how down he was last year?

He kind of unlocked something in 2021 then figured it out in 2022 when he was very good. Then it kind of fell apart last year.

Strike outs were down.
He stopped getting soft contact.
He wasn't able to induce chase.



Stuff wise he was still pretty dang good, but it was still down.



Clearly there is a lot to like, but this guy isn't a lock to be an ace next year yet the asking price seems to be 2 years of ace control.

Farmer1906 said:

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In all the Cease discussion, why is not one talking about how down he was last year?

He kind of unlocked something in 2021 then figured it out in 2022 when he was very good. Then it kind of fell apart last year.

Strike outs were down.
He stopped getting soft contact.
He wasn't able to induce chase.



Stuff wise he was still pretty dang good, but it was still down.



Clearly there is a lot to like, but this guy isn't a lock to be an ace next year yet the asking price seems to be 2 years of ace control.

---

My thoughts exactly. He has incredible stuff, but he didn't have a great year last year. Even in 2021 and 2022 when it looked like he had it figured out, he wasn't going deep into games at all.

Not saying I wouldn't want him on the team, but I'm afraid the Astros would have to give up too much for a guy that, in my opinion, hasn't truly looked like an ACE.

The Chicago Cubs have reached a tentative deal with Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga. He will undergo a physical in Chicago on Thursday before the deal becomes official.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) January 9, 2024

Cubs finally did something.

I love me some JV, but he's not the #4 SP in baseball.

.@MLBNetwork’s #Top10RightNow rollout has begun!

First up: The Top 10 starting pitchers in baseball. pic.twitter.com/xWgZofIngh

— MLB (@MLB) January 10, 2024

Farmer1906 said:

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The Chicago Cubs have reached a tentative deal with Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga. He will undergo a physical in Chicago on Thursday before the deal becomes official.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) January 9, 2024

Cubs finally did something.

---

Wow

Jon Heyman said on @670TheScore that an Imanaga suitor was willing to double the Cubs' contractual guarantee. He chose Chicago.

— Steven (@GoCubs49) January 10, 2024

Thinice said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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The Chicago Cubs have reached a tentative deal with Japanese pitcher Shota Imanaga. He will undergo a physical in Chicago on Thursday before the deal becomes official.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) January 9, 2024

Cubs finally did something.

---

Wow

Jon Heyman said on @670TheScore that an Imanaga suitor was willing to double the Cubs' contractual guarantee. He chose Chicago.

— Steven (@GoCubs49) January 10, 2024

---

Must not be a believer in "deferred money".

---

Be a lot of home runs deferred onto Waveland Ave. in the near future,

X-Posted on the Golf Board - benefits the Astros Golf Foundation and a lot of Houston area charities.

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