***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

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BadAggie
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In reply to West Roxbury • 12:25p, 9/28/23
AG
West Roxbury said:
Win the opener. Come out ready.


Biggest game for Pornstache in his career
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KTAG05
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 12:31p, 9/28/23
AG
First thing I noticed....
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BadAggie
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In reply to SECcess12 • 12:37p, 9/28/23
AG
SECcess12 said:
Look at this little peen energy. This is what happens when you are mad you can't win...ever.

Quote:
Trash franchise with trash fan base. Makes sense they used a trash can to cheat


Lol. They are not used to celebrating a commanding bullpen performance like that
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Farmer1906
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12:39p, 9/28/23
AG
What to watch for today.
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Lonestar_Ag09
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In reply to astros4545 • 12:43p, 9/28/23
AG
astros4545 said:
SECcess12 said:
Look at this little peen energy. This is what happens when you are mad you can't win...ever.

Quote:
Trash franchise with trash fan base. Makes sense they used a trash can to cheat


Says the fan of the team without a Pride Night

that's their one redeeming quality
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Big Al 1992
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12:43p, 9/28/23
AG
So we are ok with either team winning today - Rangers win it improves our just making playoff chances - if Ms win it keeps our division hopes alive. That sound right?
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Big Al 1992 • 12:44p, 9/28/23
AG
Big Al 1992 said:
So we are ok with either team winning today - Rangers win it improves our just making playoff chances - if Ms win it keeps our division hopes alive. That sound right?


Depends if you think we can sweep.
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RED AG 98
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:07p, 9/28/23
AG
Ask me again about 9pm. We'll know the D-backs / WSox result and have a pretty good idea on the Braves / Cubs before the R's / M's start.
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BayAg_14
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In reply to Big Al 1992 • 1:07p, 9/28/23
I couldn't care less about the division at this point. I just want to make the postseason. Easiest route for that happening is the Mariners losing.
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JDUB08AG
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In reply to BayAg_14 • 1:12p, 9/28/23
AG
BayAg_14 said:
I couldn't care less about the division at this point. I just want to make the postseason. Easiest route for that happening is the Mariners losing.


This is where I'm at
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kb2001
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In reply to BayAg_14 • 1:13p, 9/28/23
AG
BayAg_14 said:
I couldn't care less about the division at this point. I just want to make the postseason. Easiest route for that happening is the Mariners losing.
I'm split. Finishing as the 6 seed gives us the best path through the playoffs, especially given our home record this season.

But letting our division title spend a year in Arlington would piss me off.
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RED AG 98
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1:15p, 9/28/23
AG
The funniest result is us winning 2 and the Mariner's sweeping. We're still the 6 and Arlington stays home. Admittedly the chances of this happening are tiny but if I were to get a choice ...
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AgLA06
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In reply to [removed post] • 1:15p, 9/28/23
AG
Bregxit said:
Farmer1906 said:
WAR Leaders going into the final weekend:

Player - fWAR / bWAR
Tucker - 4.9 / 5.1
Alvarez - 4.5 / 4.5
Altuve - 4.2 / 2.8 (DRS screwed him)
Bregman - 4.2 / 4.8
McCormick - 4.1 / 3.7
Pena - 2.6 / 3.4
Diaz - 2.1 / 3.3
Dubon - 1.8 / 2.5
Meyers - 1.7 / 1.6
Brantley - 0.3 / -0.1
Kessinger - 0.3 / 0.0
Julks - 0.3 / 0.3
Singleton - -0.1 / -0.1
Bannon - -0.1 / -0.2
Salazar - -0.2 / -0.2
Madris - -0.3 / -0.3
Hensley - -0.8 / -0.8
Abreu - -0.9 / -0.4
Maldonado - -1.0 / 0.1



But but Bregman is terrible and we should replace him!
His September has been God awful. I mean get sent down to triple A if you aren't Bregman bad.

And his yearly numbers are still that.
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:21p, 9/28/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
spadilly said:


Lol what?
Its RE. He made lots of bad calls. But the times he did it to Seattle mattered more in their system.

Miss a 2-1 ball and go 2-2 instead of 3-1 with one out and bases empty? Whatever. Its still 1 out and bases empty. The RE matrix hasnt changed.

Miss a ball at 2-2 and go K instead of 3-2 with bases loaded and 1 out? Now its bases loaded 2 outs and you chop 0.75 runs off the expectancy table.
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In reply to AgLA06 • 1:23p, 9/28/23
Mathguy64
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In reply to Big Al 1992 • 1:25p, 9/28/23
AG
Big Al 1992 said:
So we are ok with either team winning today - Rangers win it improves our just making playoff chances - if Ms win it keeps our division hopes alive. That sound right?
I want Seattle to win today. I want Seattle to care for tomorrow. I want them to have hope and then get it snuffed out at the last minute. I want them to get close enough to smell the roses only to have the worlds largest bumblebee come out of the rose to sting them on the nose.
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spadilly
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1:26p, 9/28/23
S

Off days…

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Farmer1906
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In reply to AgLA06 • 1:31p, 9/28/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
Bregxit said:
Farmer1906 said:
WAR Leaders going into the final weekend:

Player - fWAR / bWAR
Tucker - 4.9 / 5.1
Alvarez - 4.5 / 4.5
Altuve - 4.2 / 2.8 (DRS screwed him)
Bregman - 4.2 / 4.8
McCormick - 4.1 / 3.7
Pena - 2.6 / 3.4
Diaz - 2.1 / 3.3
Dubon - 1.8 / 2.5
Meyers - 1.7 / 1.6
Brantley - 0.3 / -0.1
Kessinger - 0.3 / 0.0
Julks - 0.3 / 0.3
Singleton - -0.1 / -0.1
Bannon - -0.1 / -0.2
Salazar - -0.2 / -0.2
Madris - -0.3 / -0.3
Hensley - -0.8 / -0.8
Abreu - -0.9 / -0.4
Maldonado - -1.0 / 0.1



But but Bregman is terrible and we should replace him!
His September has been God awful. I mean get sent down to triple A if you aren't Bregman bad.

And his yearly numbers are still that.
Why do we have to always overexaggerate?

Bregman has a 96 wRC+ in Sept which s better than Pena. And better than a lot of good players, some still playing for something.

See
  • Sean Murphy (30 wRC+)
  • Nolan Arenado (40)
  • Whit Merrifield (41)
  • Justin Turner (45)
  • Nathaniel Lowe (58)
  • Bo Bichette (62)
  • Josh H. Smith (65)
  • Luis Robert Jr. (66)
  • Cedric Mullins (68)
  • Randy Arozarena (84)
  • Paul Goldschmidt (85)
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Farmer1906
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In reply to [removed post] • 1:35p, 9/28/23
AG
Bregxit said:
AgLA06 said:
Bregxit said:
Farmer1906 said:
WAR Leaders going into the final weekend:

Player - fWAR / bWAR
Tucker - 4.9 / 5.1
Alvarez - 4.5 / 4.5
Altuve - 4.2 / 2.8 (DRS screwed him)
Bregman - 4.2 / 4.8
McCormick - 4.1 / 3.7
Pena - 2.6 / 3.4
Diaz - 2.1 / 3.3
Dubon - 1.8 / 2.5
Meyers - 1.7 / 1.6
Brantley - 0.3 / -0.1
Kessinger - 0.3 / 0.0
Julks - 0.3 / 0.3
Singleton - -0.1 / -0.1
Bannon - -0.1 / -0.2
Salazar - -0.2 / -0.2
Madris - -0.3 / -0.3
Hensley - -0.8 / -0.8
Abreu - -0.9 / -0.4
Maldonado - -1.0 / 0.1



But but Bregman is terrible and we should replace him!
His September has been God awful. I mean get sent down to triple A if you aren't Bregman bad.

And his yearly numbers are still that.


Tucker and Bregs have similar Sept numbers except Tuck's 4 triples. Breggy has more hits and higher OBP, Tucker has a higher slug. Breggy does have too many GIDP this month.


TED
6 doubles
4 triples
3 HR
3 SB

vs

BREG
4 doubles
0 triples
2 HR
0 SB

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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:41p, 9/28/23
Farmer1906
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In reply to [removed post] • 1:42p, 9/28/23
AG
That they were similar.
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:49p, 9/28/23
AgLA06
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:55p, 9/28/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
AgLA06 said:
Bregxit said:
Farmer1906 said:
WAR Leaders going into the final weekend:

Player - fWAR / bWAR
Tucker - 4.9 / 5.1
Alvarez - 4.5 / 4.5
Altuve - 4.2 / 2.8 (DRS screwed him)
Bregman - 4.2 / 4.8
McCormick - 4.1 / 3.7
Pena - 2.6 / 3.4
Diaz - 2.1 / 3.3
Dubon - 1.8 / 2.5
Meyers - 1.7 / 1.6
Brantley - 0.3 / -0.1
Kessinger - 0.3 / 0.0
Julks - 0.3 / 0.3
Singleton - -0.1 / -0.1
Bannon - -0.1 / -0.2
Salazar - -0.2 / -0.2
Madris - -0.3 / -0.3
Hensley - -0.8 / -0.8
Abreu - -0.9 / -0.4
Maldonado - -1.0 / 0.1



But but Bregman is terrible and we should replace him!
His September has been God awful. I mean get sent down to triple A if you aren't Bregman bad.

And his yearly numbers are still that.
Why do we have to always overexaggerate?

Bregman has a 96 wRC+ in Sept which s better than Pena. And better than a lot of good players, some still playing for something.

See
  • Sean Murphy (30 wRC+)
  • Nolan Arenado (40)
  • Whit Merrifield (41)
  • Justin Turner (45)
  • Nathaniel Lowe (58)
  • Bo Bichette (62)
  • Josh H. Smith (65)
  • Luis Robert Jr. (66)
  • Cedric Mullins (68)
  • Randy Arozarena (84)
  • Paul Goldschmidt (85)
Wait so comparing him to the one guy on the team that couldn't hit a HR if his life depended on it is somehow a good thing?!?

September was his worst month of the season by far. His September is a .220 average with .330 slugging. And he's looked God awful on top of struggling. I don't care how he compares to other struggling plays. I like Bregman. He's my spirit animal as a player, but I'd bet even he'd tell you September sucked.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2184351/alex-bregman/splits/
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texasaggie2015
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2:08p, 9/28/23
AG
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Farmer1906
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In reply to AgLA06 • 2:12p, 9/28/23
AG
AgLA06 said:
Farmer1906 said:
AgLA06 said:
Bregxit said:
Farmer1906 said:
WAR Leaders going into the final weekend:

Player - fWAR / bWAR
Tucker - 4.9 / 5.1
Alvarez - 4.5 / 4.5
Altuve - 4.2 / 2.8 (DRS screwed him)
Bregman - 4.2 / 4.8
McCormick - 4.1 / 3.7
Pena - 2.6 / 3.4
Diaz - 2.1 / 3.3
Dubon - 1.8 / 2.5
Meyers - 1.7 / 1.6
Brantley - 0.3 / -0.1
Kessinger - 0.3 / 0.0
Julks - 0.3 / 0.3
Singleton - -0.1 / -0.1
Bannon - -0.1 / -0.2
Salazar - -0.2 / -0.2
Madris - -0.3 / -0.3
Hensley - -0.8 / -0.8
Abreu - -0.9 / -0.4
Maldonado - -1.0 / 0.1



But but Bregman is terrible and we should replace him!
His September has been God awful. I mean get sent down to triple A if you aren't Bregman bad.

And his yearly numbers are still that.
Why do we have to always overexaggerate?

Bregman has a 96 wRC+ in Sept which s better than Pena. And better than a lot of good players, some still playing for something.

See
  • Sean Murphy (30 wRC+)
  • Nolan Arenado (40)
  • Whit Merrifield (41)
  • Justin Turner (45)
  • Nathaniel Lowe (58)
  • Bo Bichette (62)
  • Josh H. Smith (65)
  • Luis Robert Jr. (66)
  • Cedric Mullins (68)
  • Randy Arozarena (84)
  • Paul Goldschmidt (85)
Wait so comparing him to the one guy on the team that couldn't hit a HR if his life depended on it is somehow a good thing?!?

September was his worst month of the season by far. His September is a .220 average with .330 slugging. And he's looked God awful on top of struggling. I don't care how he compares to other struggling plays. I like Bregman. He's my spirit animal as a player, but I'd bet even he'd tell you September sucked.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2184351/alex-bregman/splits/
Around league average is well average. For Bregman, it's a down month. A relatively down 24-game sample is completely normal.

You left out his OBP. Walks count. Bregman basically has a built-in buffer that keeps him from being "God awful" because he always draws walks.
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annie88
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In reply to LincolnBorglum79 • 2:14p, 9/28/23
AG
May be a little Bad Blood from last year?

Currently a happy listless vessel and deplorable. #FDEMS TRUMP 2024.
Fight Fight Fight.
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West Roxbury
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:15p, 9/28/23
I hear you Farmer and I admit I have been pretty tough on Bregman this season at times myself. Ford and Sparky talk about his drop off in production versus LHP and, while I don't spend the time to look at the numbers too closely, I think that sometimes we are all victims of our own expectations and perception. What he brings to the table is plenty even if it isn't a career year.
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Marvin
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In reply to kb2001 • 2:15p, 9/28/23
AG
kb2001 said:


But letting our division title spend a year in Arlington would piss me off.


But if the trophy spends another year in Houston as a result?
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gougler08
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In reply to [removed post] • 2:18p, 9/28/23
AG
Bregxit said:
Farmer1906 said:
That they were similar.


Breg

.220 avg
.346 obp
20 hits
16 bb
14 runs

Tuck
.229 avg
.330 obp
19 hits
14 bb
14 runs

I said the big difference is Tuck's 4 triples and Breg's 7 DP.
Yeah but that's a BIG difference, especially the DPs
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Farmer1906
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In reply to West Roxbury • 2:31p, 9/28/23
AG
West Roxbury said:
I hear you Farmer and I admit I have been pretty tough on Bregman this season at times myself. Ford and Sparky talk about his drop off in production versus LHP and, while I don't spend the time to look at the numbers too closely, I think that sometimes we are all victims of our own expectations and perception. What he brings to the table is plenty even if it isn't a career year.
This. It happens to everyone. This is why I bring numbers to see more of the story.

Remember when the eye test said Dubon was killing it early in the season then we all realized his OPS like maxing out around .740?

Everyone wants Bregman to be 2019 Bregman, but that guy doesn't exist thanks to the balls changing. Tha dosn't mean we don't have a hell of a ballplayer still.

Leaders (primary 3B, min 400 PA)
5th fWAR (4.2)
4th bWAR (4.8)
--
11th BA (.259)
1st OBP (.362)
16th SLG (.431)
11th OPS (.794)
7th wOBA (.348)
6th wRC+ (123) - same as Jose Ramirez, higher than Machado, Chapman, Arenado
--
5th WPA (1.90)
1st RE24 (30.81)
3rd Clutch (0.56)
--
6th DRS (6)
16th Fielding Run Value (+1) - min 500 Inn at 3B
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BadAggie
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2:35p, 9/28/23
AG
If Astros are in wildcard then best scenario is they win Friday and Arlington wins Thursday and Friday. Then can rest JV, Javier and Valdez this weekend
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tjack16
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2:39p, 9/28/23
AG
I hope Toronto just wins. If they keep losing then we get the 5 seed and have to go to Tampa.

I'd rather the 2 or 6 seed rather than the 5 seed.

IMO sweep Arizona, and root for Seattle + Toronto
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Mr President Elect
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In reply to [removed post] • 2:40p, 9/28/23
AG
Bregxit said:
Farmer1906 said:
That they were similar.


Breg

.220 avg
.346 obp
20 hits
16 bb
14 runs

Tuck
.229 avg
.330 obp
19 hits
14 bb
14 runs

I said the big difference is Tuck's 4 triples and Breg's 7 DP.
hmm, Tuck has 13 of his 19 hits as xbh while only 6 of Breg's 20 are xbh. You are trying to say a .836 ops is similar to a 0.675 ops. One gets you benched and the other is near all star level. Yes, both of them have pretty bad averages, but at least Tuck is compensating with a great slugging % which you are trying to downplay.

Edit to add, I was a bit surprised to see Tuck's ops as high as it is this month. Seems like he has struggled more than that since hitting the GS against the O's.
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houag78
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:40p, 9/28/23
AG
The other problem w Bregs' Sep struggles is he's putting Yordan in the lead off position - 5 times in last 4 games. Now, he's hit 3 HR in those 5 AB, but just imagine our run production if Bregs isn't ending the inning.
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BadAggie
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2:42p, 9/28/23
AG
Could care less about division title other than the benefit of avoiding the wildcard round. But in and of itself bfd
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