JohnnyTexAg1995 said:
Tonight game is huge now!
Need to take advantage of the opportunity... unlike the past three or four chances.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****
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Last: 8 mo ago by texasaggie2015
Need to take advantage of the opportunity... unlike the past three or four chances.
I would lean no. I don't think their careers have overlapped until now.Willy Wonka said:texasaggie2015 said:
I don't want to get slammed for being vague so I'll try to be careful with the wording, but I would really be shocked if Dusty is back next year. Unless he wins another title. Even then, I wouldn't be surprised to see him ride off into the sunset.
Dana and Dusty don't see eye to eye on a lot of things and Dana has made it clear to Crane that he wants someone who is his guy as manager. Dana jumped on board pretty late during the offseason when things were already structured a certain way. Things will likely look a lot different next year.
Does Dana think that Espada is "his guy"?
Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!
Need to gain a game on Seattle tonight! No excuses
Big Al 1992 said:
Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!
I personally will always disagree with giving up an out to get a guy to 3rd.
Pretty sure the run expectancy drops from runner on 2nd no outs to runner on 3rd one out.Big Al 1992 said:
Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!
MLB 100%. LL I have no idea as I've never seen any data.
Really just depends on who's at the plate and who's on deck for me
Farmer1906 said:Pretty sure the run expectancy drops from runner on 2nd no outs to runner on 3rd one out.Big Al 1992 said:
Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!
I highly doubt that in Little League. I suspect there are many more wild pitches and passed balls.
But, on a related note, I think we've found the right level for Dusty to manage!
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
Dusty Baker said Jose Abreu's batting practice has been the best it's looked in months. "It looked like the time off helped him, helped his movement, helped his flexibility, which helps your bat speed." Baker said.
— Adam Spolane (@AdamSpolane) August 23, 2023
Farmer1906 said:Pretty sure the run expectancy drops from runner on 2nd no outs to runner on 3rd one out.Big Al 1992 said:
Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!
It's not worth the conversation, farmer. I've had the same discussion and have been told it's different when you only need one run even though there is no data set to support that claim and even though the multi-run expectancy tables include the one run you're trying to score.
Hah. Fair. I was more so speaking to Dusty's decision making.Marvin said:Farmer1906 said:Pretty sure the run expectancy drops from runner on 2nd no outs to runner on 3rd one out.Big Al 1992 said:
Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!
I highly doubt that in Little League. I suspect there are many more wild pitches and passed balls.
But, on a related note, I think we've found the right level for Dusty to manage!
Beat40 said:Farmer1906 said:Pretty sure the run expectancy drops from runner on 2nd no outs to runner on 3rd one out.Big Al 1992 said:
Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!
It's not worth the conversation, farmer. I've had the same discussion and have been told it's different when you only need one run even though there is no data set to support that claim and even though the multi-run expectancy tables include the one run you're trying to score.
I know we have had this discussion more than once. I will say the RE tables all say they do not contain ANY Manfredball data. It's regular season play only.
texasaggie2015 said:Dusty Baker said Jose Abreu's batting practice has been the best it's looked in months. "It looked like the time off helped him, helped his movement, helped his flexibility, which helps your bat speed." Baker said.
— Adam Spolane (@AdamSpolane) August 23, 2023
What a play Needville!!!
Mathguy64 said:Beat40 said:Farmer1906 said:Pretty sure the run expectancy drops from runner on 2nd no outs to runner on 3rd one out.Big Al 1992 said:
Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!
It's not worth the conversation, farmer. I've had the same discussion and have been told it's different when you only need one run even though there is no data set to support that claim and even though the multi-run expectancy tables include the one run you're trying to score.
I know we have had this discussion more than once. I will say the RE tables all say they do not contain ANY Manfredball data. It's regular season play only.
Sure but it knows what happens when someone reaches second with no outs.
So Needville to play the TN-CA winner for the US title
Overall run expectancy drops, but that is not relevant in sudden death situations when all you care about is runs vs. NOT runs. With rounding,
Odds of scoring with runner on second and no outs is 62% (overall run expectancy is 1.12)
Odds of scoring with runner on third with one out is 66% (overall run expectancy is 0.95)
That is why bunting is generally a self-defeating strategy since it decreases overall run expectancy, but when one run is all that is needed, it makes sense. Said differently, bunting increases your odds of scoring exactly one run, but decreases your odds of scoring more than one run.
Odds of scoring with runner on second and no outs is 62% (overall run expectancy is 1.12)
Odds of scoring with runner on third with one out is 66% (overall run expectancy is 0.95)
That is why bunting is generally a self-defeating strategy since it decreases overall run expectancy, but when one run is all that is needed, it makes sense. Said differently, bunting increases your odds of scoring exactly one run, but decreases your odds of scoring more than one run.
True, but that only makes sense when bunting is 100% successful. What are the odds a sac bunt is successful? I think its more like 65%. Assume it is 65%. By your #s you have a 65% to increase your odds, but a 35% your odds drop significantly.SpaceCityAg05 said:
Overall run expectancy drops, but that is not relevant in sudden death situations when all you care about is runs vs. NOT runs. With rounding,
Odds of scoring with runner on second and no outs is 62% (overall run expectancy is 1.12)
Odds of scoring with runner on third with one out is 66% (overall run expectancy is 0.95)
That is why bunting is generally a self-defeating strategy since it decreases overall run expectancy, but when one run is all that is needed, it makes sense. Said differently, bunting increases your odds of scoring exactly one run, but decreases your odds of scoring more than one run.
Here is win expectancy... a little different from your #s, but similarly close.
Logic
Found another fangraphs article on it.
This is just assuming the average outcome. It's not even factoring who's the batter, pitcher, defense, etc.
In the end, I think there is no obvious right or wrong answer for a runner on second with no outs in a tie game.
This is just assuming the average outcome. It's not even factoring who's the batter, pitcher, defense, etc.
In the end, I think there is no obvious right or wrong answer for a runner on second with no outs in a tie game.
That is completely fair to question to role of bunt success into the strategy, especially with how poor players have become at a skill that used to be fundamental.
I was simply arguing the probabilities side, but yes, when you decide to bunt, you risk having a batter who can't bunt pop one up to the pitcher so that you end with a runner on second with one out.
That is why the best option is always the lefty contact hitter who can make sure to hit the ball to the right side.
I was simply arguing the probabilities side, but yes, when you decide to bunt, you risk having a batter who can't bunt pop one up to the pitcher so that you end with a runner on second with one out.
That is why the best option is always the lefty contact hitter who can make sure to hit the ball to the right side.
Farmer1906 said:Mathguy64 said:Beat40 said:Farmer1906 said:Pretty sure the run expectancy drops from runner on 2nd no outs to runner on 3rd one out.Big Al 1992 said:
Watching LL WS - even Needville's manager knows with free runner on 2nd in extra innings, you bunt runner to third. Dusty should take notes!!
It's not worth the conversation, farmer. I've had the same discussion and have been told it's different when you only need one run even though there is no data set to support that claim and even though the multi-run expectancy tables include the one run you're trying to score.
I know we have had this discussion more than once. I will say the RE tables all say they do not contain ANY Manfredball data. It's regular season play only.
Sure but it knows what happens when someone reaches second with no outs.
No. That RE table is based on people managing and making decisions to maximize the number of runs scored. It's not a simulation. It's the history of what happened, usually aggregated for 3 years. That's not the same as maximizing your chances of scoring only 1 run. You aren't trying to achieve the same outcome. And it doesn't include the outcomes based on the other team making decisions to minimize your chances of scoring only one run.
If you have a man on 3B with 2 outs you may be willing to walk a player or 2 to get to a preferred hitter if all you care about is the single run. Where in a regular game you would never do that.
You may also play your defense back with 0 outs and a man on 3B to give up a run to get an out. In Manfredball you cannot do that. The RE table includes the first scenario but in Manfredball you cannot do that.
I'm sure the teams (at least the smart ones) have simulated game data. But I'll bet good money it doesn't match the RE data.
Phrasing said:
What a play Needville!!!
HOSED! 💪
— Houston Baseball (@UHCougarBB) August 23, 2023
Needville is headed to the U.S. Championship game of the LLWS! Congratulations, young men. 👏🏽pic.twitter.com/03mtuntl1W
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.
MAGA
MAGA
SpaceCityAg05 said:
That is completely fair to question to role of bunt success into the strategy, especially with how poor players have become at a skill that used to be fundamental.
I was simply arguing the probabilities side, but yes, when you decide to bunt, you risk having a batter who can't bunt pop one up to the pitcher so that you end with a runner on second with one out.
That is why the best option is always the lefty contact hitter who can make sure to hit the ball to the right side.
But it's presented a lot on this forum as bunting in extras as the home team is all but iron clad. If the % bunt being successful is even 70%, do you want to take the 30% chance, which is significant by the way, you have a man on 2B with 1 out, which is a much worse outcome.
My point on the expectancy tables is man on 2B with 0 outs has a run expectancy over 1 and man on 3B with 1 out had a run expectancy below 1. To me that means the 1 run scores more often with a man on 2B with no outs than the 1 run scores with a man on 3B with 1 out.
Given the successful bunt % and the downside of a failed bunt being significantly worse coupled with the above, my official stance is in most cases I'd rather play it straight up and have the bunt option be a case by case basis.
Just checked out Sale's last start. His velo was disgusting in a bad way.
Avg 4 Seam sub 92 and it dipped into the 80s a few times. He only threw 58 and 65 pitches during his last few starts.
Avg 4 Seam sub 92 and it dipped into the 80s a few times. He only threw 58 and 65 pitches during his last few starts.
Altuve broke Chris Sale back in the 2017 ALDS
Just another notch in the Stros belt
Just another notch in the Stros belt
Bregman will hit a homer tonight off of Sale
Great job but was it really that great? he fielded it really slow and those kids are huge "12 yr olds" playing on a field the size my 9yr old plays on. Maybe smaller
Spin for the win! 🌀#LLWS pic.twitter.com/h1lE0vO3i2
— Little League (@LittleLeague) August 23, 2023
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.
MAGA
MAGA
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
Great job but was it really that great? he fielded it really slow and those kids are huge "12 yr olds" playing on a field the size my 9yr old plays on. Maybe smaller
I bet you're a blast at parties
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.
MAGA
MAGA
Mr.Bond said:Lonestar_Ag09 said:
Great job but was it really that great? he fielded it really slow and those kids are huge "12 yr olds" playing on a field the size my 9yr old plays on. Maybe smaller
I bet you're a blast at parties
Ha I was about to ask who pissed in his Cheerios?
Dusty on Yainer: "Everybody wants him to play every day, but it's tough. ... It's much like a young quarterback. How many young quarterbacks come in and take over right away? The way we've handled it, the way I've handled it, he'll thank me, the city will thank me and the…
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) August 23, 2023
stoneca said:
DA MARINERS LOSE!!!!
Always about Dusty
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