***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

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Farmer1906
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In reply to rosco511 • 10:33a, 8/4/23
AG
rosco511 said:
I read some analysis on batting order several years ago, and believe the conclusion from such analysis was as follows:

Best overall hitter should hit #2
Second best overall hitter should hit #4 (if difference between the best and second not significantly different, then #4 should be the best power hitter)
Third best overall hitter should hit #1 (if have a group of people who are arguably this person and/or best or second best overall hitter, then this person should be the best on base percentage of the group)
Fourth best overall hitter should hit #3
And then generally the rest should just fall in numerical order

This construction apparently maximizes run expectancy and is also consistent with how the "nerd" organizations generally now approach it.
Yup. I have read something similar to that.

Altuve 2B
Alvarez DH
Bregman 3B
Tucker RF
Chas LF
Abreu 1B
Diaz C
Meyers CF
Pena SS
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tjack16
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10:44a, 8/4/23
AG
My lineup

Altuve - 2B
Tucker - RF
Bregman - 3B
Alvarez - LF
McCormick - CF
Abreu - 1B
Pena - SS
Diaz - DH
Maldonado - C

- had to include Maldonado due to realistic expectations with Dusty
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Dies Irae
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11:04a, 8/4/23
funny note on Bregman, he is actually having a better season than I thought he has, showing he's on pace for a 4.5 WAR season; due to a pretty good offensive showing and a very good defensive showing.

His stats are very similar to last year, but he had an .820 OPS last year, compared to his .776 this year. All of his stats, Batting Average, walks, HR, RBI, etc are almost exactly on pace with last year except for 2: triples and doubles.

Bregman didn't hit any triples last year and is on pace to hit 3 this year (he has 2 currently) but he is going to hit half of the number of doubles that he did last year (38 v 19) he currently has 14. He's never hit less than 37 in a full season, but unless he goes nuts he'll be well below there this year.
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Beat40
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 11:14a, 8/4/23
Farmer1906 said:
rosco511 said:
I read some analysis on batting order several years ago, and believe the conclusion from such analysis was as follows:

Best overall hitter should hit #2
Second best overall hitter should hit #4 (if difference between the best and second not significantly different, then #4 should be the best power hitter)
Third best overall hitter should hit #1 (if have a group of people who are arguably this person and/or best or second best overall hitter, then this person should be the best on base percentage of the group)
Fourth best overall hitter should hit #3
And then generally the rest should just fall in numerical order

This construction apparently maximizes run expectancy and is also consistent with how the "nerd" organizations generally now approach it.
Yup. I have read something similar to that.

Altuve 2B
Alvarez DH
Bregman 3B
Tucker RF
Chas LF
Abreu 1B
Diaz C
Meyers CF
Pena SS
This is exactly how I'd construct my line-up if I were managing.
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Texaggie7nine
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In reply to Beat40 • 11:20a, 8/4/23
Beat40 said:
Texaggie7nine said:
I'm not a fan of Dusty's lineups but I don't have a problem with Yordon batting where he is. Dusty has always taken the approach of, you have to win your spot back after coming back from injury, and Yordon hasn't done that yet.

Now why Chas isn't batting higher up....
But for Yordan that is ****ing stupid. Yordan shouldn't have to win anything back. He's the best hitter on the team and there is no way in hell you can justify him batting 5th. Just none.
I respect no special exceptions. Earn it.
7nine
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Texaggie7nine • 11:28a, 8/4/23
AG
Texaggie7nine said:
Beat40 said:
Texaggie7nine said:
I'm not a fan of Dusty's lineups but I don't have a problem with Yordon batting where he is. Dusty has always taken the approach of, you have to win your spot back after coming back from injury, and Yordon hasn't done that yet.

Now why Chas isn't batting higher up....
But for Yordan that is ****ing stupid. Yordan shouldn't have to win anything back. He's the best hitter on the team and there is no way in hell you can justify him batting 5th. Just none.
I respect no special exceptions. Earn it.


He has by being one of the greatest young hitter of all time.
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Beat40
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In reply to Texaggie7nine • 11:31a, 8/4/23
Texaggie7nine said:
Beat40 said:
Texaggie7nine said:
I'm not a fan of Dusty's lineups but I don't have a problem with Yordon batting where he is. Dusty has always taken the approach of, you have to win your spot back after coming back from injury, and Yordon hasn't done that yet.

Now why Chas isn't batting higher up....
But for Yordan that is ****ing stupid. Yordan shouldn't have to win anything back. He's the best hitter on the team and there is no way in hell you can justify him batting 5th. Just none.
I respect no special exceptions. Earn it.


So if Patrick Mahomes gets hurt before the season, will be out 8 weeks, and Blane Gabbert is having a really good start to the season, Mahomes should have to earn the starting spot back when he's ready to go week 9?

It's freaking Yordan Alvarez we're talking about here. You don't tell him to earn it and bat him 5th.
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txags92
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 11:34a, 8/4/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
rosco511 said:
I read some analysis on batting order several years ago, and believe the conclusion from such analysis was as follows:

Best overall hitter should hit #2
Second best overall hitter should hit #4 (if difference between the best and second not significantly different, then #4 should be the best power hitter)
Third best overall hitter should hit #1 (if have a group of people who are arguably this person and/or best or second best overall hitter, then this person should be the best on base percentage of the group)
Fourth best overall hitter should hit #3
And then generally the rest should just fall in numerical order

This construction apparently maximizes run expectancy and is also consistent with how the "nerd" organizations generally now approach it.
Yup. I have read something similar to that.

Altuve 2B
Alvarez DH
Bregman 3B
Tucker RF
Chas LF
Abreu 1B
Diaz C
Meyers CF
Pena SS
Seems like this formula leaves out who is best hitting with men on base. I know my inclination would be to hit Tuck 2nd and Yordan 4th based on that formula, but taking away opportunities for Tuck with men on base would be silly given how well he hits with guys on in front of him. Just no way to really make it ideal when our best sluggers are also our best OBP guys too.
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Mathguy64
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11:36a, 8/4/23
AG
Dusty's lineup is criminal. He's putting a player with a much higher chance of making an out between players with higher chances of getting on. It makes sequencing much more difficult.

Stack your best hitters together to maximize the chances of scoring with them.
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k20dub
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11:37a, 8/4/23
AG
If Dusty is gone next year, this thread is going to have about 40% less posts on it just from no one *****ing about Dusty's lineups...
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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 11:49a, 8/4/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
rosco511 said:
I read some analysis on batting order several years ago, and believe the conclusion from such analysis was as follows:

Best overall hitter should hit #2
Second best overall hitter should hit #4 (if difference between the best and second not significantly different, then #4 should be the best power hitter)
Third best overall hitter should hit #1 (if have a group of people who are arguably this person and/or best or second best overall hitter, then this person should be the best on base percentage of the group)
Fourth best overall hitter should hit #3
And then generally the rest should just fall in numerical order

This construction apparently maximizes run expectancy and is also consistent with how the "nerd" organizations generally now approach it.
Yup. I have read something similar to that.

Altuve 2B
Alvarez DH
Bregman 3B
Tucker RF
Chas LF
Abreu 1B
Diaz C
Meyers CF
Pena SS
If there were no other factors, this is exactly how I would align the lineup.

However, given that managers cannot help themselves but to bring in lefties against Yordan and Tucker, I think it is important that the lineup exploit that, which is best done with Yordan/Tucker/McCormick. Bregman is unfortunately worse against lefties, so it creates an actual disadvantage late in games when he is between Yordan and Tucker.

I would therefore align my 1-6 as:
Altuve
Bregman
Alvarez
Tucker
McCormick
Abreu

The bottom 3 are dependent on who is catching. In the best version of lineup (Diaz catching), I would love to see us try
Diaz
Singleton/Meyers
Pena
at the bottom.
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Mathguy64
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11:56a, 8/4/23
AG
Shohei hits his 40th HR!

Angels lose again.

Seriously though, when does he get the special Judge and Albert commemorative ball to hit? When he gets to 50? Does MLB give him the same upgrade?
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W
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In reply to Dies Irae • 12:07p, 8/4/23
AG
Bregman is having a good year.

not a $30 MM season, but thanks to his defense and health...about a $23 MM or so type of season

-----

a couple of strange year-over-year stats for AB:

2022 ---> 11 HBP and 10 sac flys

2023 ----> 2 HBP and 1 sac fly
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Mathguy64
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In reply to W • 12:12p, 8/4/23
AG
All anecdotal evidence that he's being pitched away way more than last year.
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gigemJTH12
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12:29p, 8/4/23
AG
literally the dumbest and most annoying f'er on Twitter

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Beau Holder
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In reply to Texaggie7nine • 12:32p, 8/4/23
AG
Texaggie7nine said:
Beat40 said:
Texaggie7nine said:
I'm not a fan of Dusty's lineups but I don't have a problem with Yordon batting where he is. Dusty has always taken the approach of, you have to win your spot back after coming back from injury, and Yordon hasn't done that yet.

Now why Chas isn't batting higher up....
But for Yordan that is ****ing stupid. Yordan shouldn't have to win anything back. He's the best hitter on the team and there is no way in hell you can justify him batting 5th. Just none.
I respect no special exceptions. Earn it.

Is this Dusty revealing his TA handle?
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Farmer1906
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In reply to W • 12:35p, 8/4/23
AG
W said:
Bregman is having a good year.

not a $30 MM season, but thanks to his defense and health...about a $23 MM or so type of season

-----

a couple of strange year-over-year stats for AB:

2022 ---> 11 HBP and 10 sac flys

2023 ----> 2 HBP and 1 sac fly
Let's compare him to Devers & Riley.

At 26 Devers signed a 9-year extension (10-year total) of 313.5 M
At 26 Riley signed a *7-year extension (*10-year total) of 212.0 M

Player - '20-'21-'22 wRC+, 3 year WAR
Bregman - 120 - 114 - 136, 8.8
Devers - 108 - 133 - 140, 9.9
Riley - 88 - 136 - 142, 10.2

Bregman is passed 26, obviously. He's already taken on an extension to guarantee 100 M.

I think its safe to say he's a small step below these two. Devers likely got around full market value. Riley was seduced by the mind control cult in Atlanta to get a little less. I think paying him so early contributes to that. Both are getting paid until around 35/36.

Here is my guess what is to what could be realistic for Crane to offer and for Bregman to accept.

30, 2024 - 28.5 (no change)
31, 2025 - 26.5
32, 2026 - 26.5
33, 2027 - 24.5
34, 2028 - 24.5
35, 2029 - 22.5
36, 2030 - team option - 22

7/175 at its max, but really is 5/124.5 tacked on to the end.


*Club option at the end of it for 1 more season
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W
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12:45p, 8/4/23
AG
the negotiations with Bregman will be very interesting

the Astros need to try to keep him...especially if Tucker is unlikely to stay

an extension or new contract at those salaries to 2029 seems reasonable

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k20dub
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 12:47p, 8/4/23
AG
"Release"
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to gigemJTH12 • 12:55p, 8/4/23
AG
I had to mute him. The dude is awful. I honestly think he has some loose screws sometimes.
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Wabs
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In reply to k20dub • 1:04p, 8/4/23
AG
k20dub said:
"Release"
Another option: rather than release him, why don't we try dropping out of the 2-hole. Just a suggestion.
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iamtheglove
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1:10p, 8/4/23
2 things -

1. I'm 99% sure this tread has discussed the construction of the line up more than the actual team has. Which os remarkable on both fronts.

2. Tonight's game is only on Apple TV+ so mentally prepare now
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Ag_07
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In reply to iamtheglove • 1:13p, 8/4/23
AG
iamtheglove said:
2. Tonight's game is only on Apple TV+ so mentally prepare now

Watch on AppleTV but use the setting that syncs the radio audio with the TV feed.

It's a phenomenal feature and that paired with the clarity and visuals and the AppleTV broadcasts are top notch.

Not so much if you listen to the TV crew.
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Beau Holder
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In reply to Ag_07 • 1:16p, 8/4/23
AG
Agree, Apple FNB is the single best baseball broadcast on the planet right now. Untouchable production quality, real dedication to the full life cycle of the event with pregame and postgame segments, and home radio broadcasts. It blows my mind that people knock them when ESPN is out there actively making people hate the sport as much as it does every time it shows a game.
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Wabs
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In reply to Ag_07 • 1:24p, 8/4/23
AG
Ag_07 said:
iamtheglove said:
2. Tonight's game is only on Apple TV+ so mentally prepare now

Watch on AppleTV but use the setting that syncs the radio audio with the TV feed.

It's a phenomenal feature and that paired with the clarity and visuals and the AppleTV broadcasts are top notch.

Not so much if you listen to the TV crew.
This. It's awesome.
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n_touch
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In reply to Wabs • 1:25p, 8/4/23
To bad they didnt wait until tomorrow
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Farmer1906
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1:38p, 8/4/23
AG
Severino's last 5 starts

3.1 IP, 10 H, 2 BB, 9 ER
5.2 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 ER
6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 1 ER
2.2 IP, 10 H, 1 BB, 7 ER
4.0 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 7 ER (9 R)

He's given up 4 ER or more in 6 of his 12 starts.

He completed 6 IP just 3x and has yet to complete the 7th.
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tjack16
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:41p, 8/4/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Severino's last 5 starts

3.1 IP, 10 H, 2 BB, 9 ER
5.2 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 ER
6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 1 ER
2.2 IP, 10 H, 1 BB, 7 ER
4.0 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 7 ER (9 R)

He's given up 4 ER or more in 6 of his 12 starts.

He completed 6 IP just 3x and has yet to complete the 7th.


I'm predicting 5 IP and 2 ER for him tonight.
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gambochaman
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:43p, 8/4/23
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Severino's last 5 starts

3.1 IP, 10 H, 2 BB, 9 ER
5.2 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 ER
6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 BB, 1 ER
2.2 IP, 10 H, 1 BB, 7 ER
4.0 IP, 9 H, 3 BB, 7 ER (9 R)

He's given up 4 ER or more in 6 of his 12 starts.

He completed 6 IP just 3x and has yet to complete the 7th.


So complete game shutout then
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Farmer1906
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2:01p, 8/4/23
AG
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chlavinka
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 2:03p, 8/4/23
AG
Maybe he already has it
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J Peterman
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:04p, 8/4/23
AG
Dusty wouldn't play him anyway. Like he doesn't play Diaz
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Pappy Van Winkle
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In reply to Ag_07 • 2:07p, 8/4/23
AG
Ag_07 said:
iamtheglove said:
2. Tonight's game is only on Apple TV+ so mentally prepare now

Watch on AppleTV but use the setting that syncs the radio audio with the TV feed.

It's a phenomenal feature and that paired with the clarity and visuals and the AppleTV broadcasts are top notch.

Not so much if you listen to the TV crew.
I had no idea this was a thing. I'd decided I wouldn't even bother with the game tonight because their TV crews are atrocious. Appreciate the tip.
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ttha_aggie_09
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:08p, 8/4/23
AG
Julks down, Singleton up. Julks gets a chance to recharge with AAA pitchers and we get to give Singleton a chance.

Is he on the 40 man roster though?
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Farmer1906
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In reply to ttha_aggie_09 • 2:09p, 8/4/23
AG
No but it won't be hard to drop someone.
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