***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

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Beat40
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In reply to Wabs • 8:52a, 8/4/23
Wabs said:
Call up Singleton and see if we can catch lightning in a bottle.

Altuve 2B
Bregman 3B
Yordan LF
Tucker RF
Chas CF
Diaz C
Abreu 1B
Singleton DH
Pena SS


The problem isn't Singleton. The problem is one hitter who is an absolute game changer for the Astros is batting 5th!!

If you want Tucker to bat 3rd, fine, but Yordan should be no lower than 4th. And then put Chas 5th to offer some protection against bringing a LHP for Yordan and Kyle back to back.

Until pitchers have to fear Yordan in the first inning with men on base, they are going to be able to work around him.
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Prosperdick
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8:53a, 8/4/23
AG
Watching Dusty explain his lineup is like a scene from Austin Powers:

Donkey: Dana, I want you to meet my nemesis, the lineup card.
Dana: What are you waiting for? Just bat Yordan 3rd?
Donkey: No, Dana. I have an even better idea. I'm going to place him and Chas in the bottom half of my lineup card to ensure an overly elaborate and exotic death to my offense.
Dana: Why don't you just bat him 3rd, Tucker 4th and Chas 5th? I mean, I'll go get my sharpie. We'll fill out the lineup card together. It'll be fun. Bang! Done!
Donkey: One more peep out of you and you're grounded! Now let me take my nap.
Dana: Aren't you going to watch them play?
Donkey: No, we'll just leave the offense alone and not actually witness them dying, and we'll just assume it all went to plan.
Dana: I have a Sharpie in my room. Give me five seconds, I'll come back out and change the lineup card.
Donkey: No Dana. You just don't get it, do you? That's fan stuff.
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Wabs
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In reply to Beat40 • 8:58a, 8/4/23
AG
Beat40 said:
Wabs said:
Call up Singleton and see if we can catch lightning in a bottle.

Altuve 2B
Bregman 3B
Yordan LF
Tucker RF
Chas CF
Diaz C
Abreu 1B
Singleton DH
Pena SS


The problem isn't Singleton. The problem is one hitter who is an absolute game changer for the Astros is batting 5th!!

If you want Tucker to bat 3rd, fine, but Yordan should be no lower than 4th. And then put Chas 5th to offer some protection against bringing a LHP for Yordan and Kyle back to back.

Until pitchers have to fear Yordan in the first inning with men on base, they are going to be able to work around him.
Agree with all that. That's why I have Chas 5th. Dusty's lineups are really, really dumb. But also I don't like our "bench" options. What harm is there in calling up Singleton and giving him a shot? He literally cannot be worse than Julks. Adjust the 40-man and make it happen.
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Beat40
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8:58a, 8/4/23
It's incredibly frustrating to me that the Astros' best hitter is not in a position in the lineup to maximize his ABs. Just so freaking stupid. Kyle is a great hitter, but he is not Yordan.

Yordan needs to be batting with guys on base. But people with good OBPs in front of him.

That is an equation for success.
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Lonestar_Ag09
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In reply to Wabs • 8:58a, 8/4/23
AG
Wabs said:
I think not getting a bat at the trade deadline is going to end up hurting us. Pena is sitting first class on the struggle bus. Abreu has been there all season except a small hiatus in June(?). Myers, Julks, and Madris are useless off the bench and even more useless as starters. But pretty much every night Yordan is DH, one those guys have to be in the lineup because we have no other OF option. Appreciate him holding the line while Altuve was out, but Dubon has turned back into Dubon. For some reason we're refusing to bring up other guys and give them a shot.

Combine all of that with Dusty's daily, non-sensical lineups and we have problems scoring. I get teams were "asking alot", but we went "all in" with JV. Why not do that with another bat? We needed one.

Umm you do realize Madris is a Space Cowboy currently right? And while not great at the plate Meyers is the best defensive option with Tuck and Chaz with big outfields. Sometimes you flat have to play guys for their defense.

You talk about Pena and Abreu like they even have replacement options. Even less so the same person who can replace both.

This team was never changing their first baseman, SS and LF at the deadline
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texasaggie2015
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8:59a, 8/4/23
AG
Lots of negativity on this thread today (rightfully so) so I just wanna shed some light on some positive takeaways from last night:

It was good to see Javier settle down last night. It looks like to me he's in the process of tweaking something in his mechanics- which is really difficult to do in the middle of the season and explains some of his control issues. His fastball looked better at times, especially after the first inning, and his velocity was up a tick. Overall, I'm feeling optimistic about him going forward. Extremely impressive to settle down the way he did after an abysmal first inning.. at Yankee Stadium no less.

Kyle Tucker is very good at baseball and I really hope we can find a way to extend him.

Yordan Alvarez is close. Very close. It looks like his timing is just a hair off, which is expected after spending time on the IL. Someone mentioned this already, but it's inexcusable and piss poor management to have him batting fifth in this lineup. I believe he led off the inning twice last night and bat with the bases empty twice. That can't happen.

Rafael Montero looks to be finding his groove. I believe his ERA in July was just a little over 2.00 and he looked good last night. If he can figure things out, that's going to feel like a deadline acquisition in itself and will do wonders for the bullpen going forward.

Phil Maton also looked much better last night. He had a brutal July, but relief pitchers can be volatile and it's not uncommon for them to have a bad stretch. Hopefully this was a sign of him snapping out of it.

Kendall Graveman's stuff looked good overall. I'm not worried. His first three outs came pretty easily and I don't think we'll ask him to pitch multiple innings very often.

Martin Maldonado went 3-3 should be batting higher in the lineup. Kidding.

And now for some negatives...

The bats looked rough overall but I think a lot of that has to do with the way the lineup is constructed. It really makes no sense for Pena to be batting second right now. I understand why Dusty gave it a shot, but Jeremy is really going through it and needs less pressure. Send him to the bottom of the order until he starts to figure things out.

I mentioned this before and I think we've said enough about this lineup, but Yordan HAS to be hitting higher than 5th. It really makes me scratch my head.

It was a loss, but I'm really not worried too much. It was the first game of a road trip with no rest day in between. Those are tough games. The Astros are 24-14 in their last 38 games and we'll take that every single time.Shake it off and bounce back tonight. Hopefully we see some tweaks to the lineup and jump all over Severino and get on the board early.

If I'm Dusty....

Altuve
Bregman
Tucker
Yordan
Chas
Diaz
Abreu
Pena
Meyers/Julks

Feel free to roast my lineup. Dusty loves alternating lefty/righty but both Yordan and Tucker hit lefties so well I wouldn't even take that into consideration.
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Beat40
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In reply to Wabs • 9:01a, 8/4/23
Wabs said:
Beat40 said:
Wabs said:
Call up Singleton and see if we can catch lightning in a bottle.

Altuve 2B
Bregman 3B
Yordan LF
Tucker RF
Chas CF
Diaz C
Abreu 1B
Singleton DH
Pena SS


The problem isn't Singleton. The problem is one hitter who is an absolute game changer for the Astros is batting 5th!!

If you want Tucker to bat 3rd, fine, but Yordan should be no lower than 4th. And then put Chas 5th to offer some protection against bringing a LHP for Yordan and Kyle back to back.

Until pitchers have to fear Yordan in the first inning with men on base, they are going to be able to work around him.
Agree with all that. That's why I have Chas 5th. Dusty's lineups are really, really dumb. But also I don't like our "bench" options. What harm is there in calling up Singleton and giving him a shot? He literally cannot be worse than Julks. Adjust the 40-man and make it happen.


I'm not saying don't call up Singleton. I'm saying if the lineup was constructed as it should be, there would be a lot less people clamoring to call up Singleton to catch lightening in a bottle because the Astros would be almost scoring 5 runs a night.

The biggest thing in your post was you changed 8 of the 9 positions in the lineup. That's the answer to the offense issues, not Jon Singleton. That's the only point I was making.
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W
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In reply to Wabs • 9:03a, 8/4/23
AG
I agree

expect to see Julks back in the lineup tonight

Abreu went past 400 at-bats last night with a .653 OPS

Pena is up to 381 at-bats with a .670 OPS

these are not small sample sizes on August 4th
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CFTXAG10
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9:13a, 8/4/23
AG
Altuve
Bregman
Tucker
Alvarez
McCormick
Diaz - DH
Abreu
Pena
Maldonado - C
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tjack16
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9:16a, 8/4/23
AG


Geez
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Lonestar_Ag09
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9:17a, 8/4/23
AG
My lineup for tonight
4- Altuve
5- Bregman
DH- Alvarez
9- Ted
7-Chaz
2- Diaz
3- Abreu
8- Myers
6- Pena

My projection
Altuve
Pena
Tucker
Bregman
Alvarez
Abreu
Chaz
Diaz
Julks

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Ag_07
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9:17a, 8/4/23
AG
It's just weird that this Yordan in the 5 spot issue just suddenly appeared.

It was pretty much a given he'd bat 3rd for a while going back to last year up until he returned from the IL then all of a sudden it's down to 5. It came out of nowhere with no discernable change in personnel or anything.

That was actually one of the constants in this merry go round...Yordan at 3 and you know what it actually worked.
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Beat40
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In reply to Ag_07 • 9:25a, 8/4/23
Ag_07 said:
It's just weird that this Yordan in the 5 spot issue just suddenly appeared.

It was pretty much a given he'd bat 3rd for a while going back to last year up until he returned from the IL then all of a sudden it's down to 5. It came out of nowhere with no discernable change in personnel or anything.

That was actually one of the constants in this merry go round...Yordan at 3 and you know what it actually worked.
I don't like it. It's just stupid.

The origin, according to reports, is it's because Tucker had been performing well in that spot with Yordan out and Dusty didn't want to mess with that, so he, Tucker, and Yordan met and all "agreed" Tucker would bat 3rd.

My thing is Tucker is a very good hitter, but he's not Yordan. I think pitchers fear Tucker, but I think pitchers FEAR Yordan. He's a game-changer and Dusty is ok with him being in a position where he will get less bats on average and less protection because he doesn't want two lefties hitting behind each other.

I'm not one to bag on Dusty a lot, but I just get frustrated when the obvious solutions are sitting right in front of you and you do everything else when doing the obvious would fix many, many issues.

It's like sitting in a room where the sun is shining through the window directly in your eyes, and instead of closing the blinds, you put sunglasses on instead. Just close the damn blinds, Dusty.
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Farmer1906
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9:27a, 8/4/23
AG
A few things I want to put out there.

Abreu and Bregman are not the problem anymore
Jose Abreu had a good (not great) June with a 120 wRC+. He was also solidly above average in July with a 111 wRC+. It doesn't appear to be a fluke either. Since June 1st he has a 90.7 EV, 14.1 LA, 10.5% Barrel%, & 42.5% HH%. Abreu being in the middle of the lineup isn't killing the offense.

The same goes for Bregman. He killed it in June & July with 133 & 131 wRC+s.

Both have also been well above average with men on base and in scoring position. Bregman with a 169 wRC+ with men on and a 176 wRC+ with men in scoring position. Again, Abreu has been good but not as good as Bregman. 109 wRC+ with men on & 127 with men in scoring position. And these are season-long numbers so even with their poor start weighing them down they've been good overall at hitting with runners on.

While I agree there are more optimal ways to do the lineup, Abreu and Bregman are fine somewhere between 1 and 6.


The real problem on offense
Who has been hurting the lineup? I think this is obvious, but here goes:

Player / wRC+ Since June 1 / Since July 1
Meyers / 76 / 84
Julks / 80 / 47
Dubon / 63 / 33
Pena / 63 / 59
Maldonado / 22 / 13

This group has been bad for an extended stretch with 3 being damn near unplayable bad since July 1. We need to limit putting 2 of these guys in the lineup at a time when possible.


Lineup Construction Matters
I understand that Dusty is trying to get Pena going or doesn't want to disturb the rest of the lineup when someone has a day off (batting Dubon 1 when Tuve gets a day off), but these things are hurting the offense.

Here is where we stand a PA per batting position with OPS
1 - 507 / .698 (MVP Dubon with 278 PAs here for .611)
2 - 493 / .804
3 - 485 / .914
4 - 471 / .709 (early season Jose...woof)
5 - 457 / .860
6 - 450 / .616
7 - 435 / .646
8 - 421 / .745 (you can thank Chas & Yainer)
9 - 412 / .612

The difference between 2 and 7 is going to be about a ~90 PA or about 18-22 games worth of PAs over a full season. Think how much of an impact that would be to have an extra 20 games of Chas vs Pena. I think exact order matters less than just having your best near the top.

Across the league, smart teams put their best hitter 2 hole.
Dodgers - Freeman
Os - Rutschman
Pirates - Reynolds
Blue Jays - Bichette
Rays - Franco
Cards - Goldschmidt
Marlins - Soler
Braves - Olson
Rangers - Seager
Cubs - Swanson
Angels - Trout
Yankees - Judge

The nerds figured out that is where your best hitter hits. Someone let Dusty know.


Talent Shines Through
Even with all the Dusty moves, the offense has really started coming around even before Alavrez & Altuve came back.

wRC+ / OPS by month
Mar+Apr 95 / .697
May 98 / .717
June 110 / .761
July 112 / .767
Aug 102 / .715 (only 108 PAs so far)

We can get by and still be a good offense regardless of Dusty being Dusty.
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W
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9:42a, 8/4/23
AG
Abreu is not a problem if you lower your expectations to a game like last night

1 for 4 with a single

he will deliver that line consistently now and mix in a walk or two
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Farmer1906
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In reply to W • 9:44a, 8/4/23
AG
W said:
Abreu is not a problem if you lower your expectations to a game like last night

1 for 4 with a single

he will deliver that line consistently now and mix in a walk or two


1/4 with a walk is a .400 obp. I'd take that nightly.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 9:47a, 8/4/23
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
If I'm Dusty....

Altuve
Bregman
Tucker
Yordan
Chas
Diaz
Abreu
Pena
Meyers/Julks

Feel free to roast my lineup. Dusty loves alternating lefty/righty but both Yordan and Tucker hit lefties so well I wouldn't even take that into consideration.
I'd still flip Tucker and Yordan as it guarantees the pitcher will have to face him in the 1st. Also, in games where Maldy is not playing I'd have Pena 9th as someone already said, he would have Altuve batting behind him for some protection.

If Donkey INSISTS on lefty/righty with absolutely no justification whatsoever do this:
Altuve
Bregman
Yordan
Chas
Tucker
Diaz
Abreu
Meyers/Singleton
Pena

Also I removed Julks and added Singleton. Hey, at least he would be giving another Black player a shot. Sorry if that comes off as racist or pandering but it's how Donkey rolls. Just trying to lean into it.
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Prosperdick
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9:54a, 8/4/23
AG
Just a reminder Donkey...this happened:


With Yordan batting 3rd.
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agdaddy04
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10:01a, 8/4/23
AG
You guys may have already touched on this, but glad to see tomorrow's starter is no longer TBD and at least Dusty didn't mess that up.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Prosperdick • 10:06a, 8/4/23
AG
Prosperdick said:
Just a reminder Donkey...this happened:


With Yordan batting 3rd.
Also not throwing shade on Tucker at all but he did strike out after Yordan's blast against Philly.

Dana needs to just tell Donkey we need Yordan batting 3rd...you can do whatever else you like with the lineup (which sucks but you have to give him something) but you cannot bat the best hitter on the team in the 5 hole.

It's beyond absurd.
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n_touch
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 10:06a, 8/4/23
Bregman is always the problem. ALWAYS
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Beat40
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 10:07a, 8/4/23
Farmer1906 said:

Lineup Construction Matters
I understand that Dusty is trying to get Pena going or doesn't want to disturb the rest of the lineup when someone has a day off (batting Dubon 1 when Tuve gets a day off), but these things are hurting the offense.

Here is where we stand a PA per batting position with OPS
1 - 507 / .698 (MVP Dubon with 278 PAs here for .611)
2 - 493 / .804
3 - 485 / .914
4 - 471 / .709 (early season Jose...woof)
5 - 457 / .860
6 - 450 / .616
7 - 435 / .646
8 - 421 / .745 (you can thank Chas & Yainer)
9 - 412 / .612

The difference between 2 and 7 is going to be about a ~90 PA or about 18-22 games worth of PAs over a full season. Think how much of an impact that would be to have an extra 20 games of Chas vs Pena. I think exact order matters less than just having your best near the top.

Across the league, smart teams put their best hitter 2 hole.
Dodgers - Freeman
Os - Rutschman
Pirates - Reynolds
Blue Jays - Bichette
Rays - Franco
Cards - Goldschmidt
Marlins - Soler
Braves - Olson
Rangers - Seager
Cubs - Swanson
Angels - Trout
Yankees - Judge

The nerds figured out that is where your best hitter hits. Someone let Dusty know.
The only caveat to the bolded is that while overall exact line-up doesn't matter, there are parts in the Astros' line-up that should be set that absolutely do matter.

Altuve and Yordan should be set in the line-up and everyone else changes around them.

Yordan should be set to bat in the 1st inning. I don't care what position, whether it's 2 or 3, but a starting pitcher should have to face Yordan in the first inning of the game.

Altuve has to be 1.

Honestly, I'm not one to say the GM should force the manager to do anything, but I'm getting close to saying Dana should force Dusty's hand to put Yordan either 2 or 3 in the line-up. It's ridiculous Dusty is sacrificing ABs for Yordan because he's afraid of stacking Tuck and Yordan.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Beat40 • 10:12a, 8/4/23
AG
Quote:
Yordan should be set to bat in the 1st inning. I don't care what position, whether it's 2 or 3, but a starting pitcher should have to face Yordan in the first inning of the game.
It's what I said a few days ago, think about how many good pitchers where the only rub is, gotta get him early and don't let him get into a groove. With Yordan 5th it allows a pitcher to get into a little trouble in the 1st, bear down on Breggy to end the inning and then walk Yordan to start the 2nd inning while he "gets into a groove." Then we have the middle innings where he's just mowing us down.

It's quite the irony that one of the best analytics teams in the majors have a manager who just hand waves away these imperative moves as "fan stuff."
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R-Dog
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10:13a, 8/4/23
AG
Not that I would ever expect Dusty to do it, but what about leading off with Bregman? Especially since he doesn't seem to hit for as much power anymore but draws a lot of walks?

His eye would seem perfect for the lead off spot. And Altuve excelled in the 2 hole when Springer was here.

Bregman
Altuve
Alvarez LF
Ted
McCormick
Abreu
Diaz
Flavor of the Day DH
Pena

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Miles Finch
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10:13a, 8/4/23
I don't get as riled up about the batting order as some of you guys, but not hitting Alvarez third is a travesty. That being said, since we're sharing batting orders that will never happen, here's the one I would love to see just once.

Tucker 9
Altuve 4
Alvarez 7
Bregman 5
McCormick 8
Abreu 3
Diaz 2
Julks/Dubon/Whomever DH
Pena 6
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redline248
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In reply to n_touch • 10:15a, 8/4/23
AG
n_touch said:
Bregman is always the problem. ALWAYS
Careful, people might think you're serious!
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Texaggie7nine
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10:15a, 8/4/23
I'm not a fan of Dusty's lineups but I don't have a problem with Yordon batting where he is. Dusty has always taken the approach of, you have to win your spot back after coming back from injury, and Yordon hasn't done that yet.

Now why Chas isn't batting higher up....
7nine
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mwm
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In reply to Lonestar_Ag09 • 10:17a, 8/4/23
Hey, Lonestar. Mr. Crane is on line 1. He wants to talk with you about a managerial job.
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redline248
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In reply to Miles Finch • 10:18a, 8/4/23
AG
Miles Finch said:
I don't get as riled up about the batting order as some of you guys, but not hitting Alvarez third is a travesty. That being said, since we're sharing batting orders that will never happen, here's the one I would love to see just once.

Tucker 9
Altuve 4
Alvarez 7
Bregman 5
McCormick 8
Abreu 3
Diaz 2
Julks/Dubon/Whomever DH
Pena 6
Completely reasonable
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Beat40
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In reply to Texaggie7nine • 10:18a, 8/4/23
Texaggie7nine said:
I'm not a fan of Dusty's lineups but I don't have a problem with Yordon batting where he is. Dusty has always taken the approach of, you have to win your spot back after coming back from injury, and Yordon hasn't done that yet.

Now why Chas isn't batting higher up....
But for Yordan that is ****ing stupid. Yordan shouldn't have to win anything back. He's the best hitter on the team and there is no way in hell you can justify him batting 5th. Just none.
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n_touch
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In reply to redline248 • 10:19a, 8/4/23
redline248 said:
n_touch said:
Bregman is always the problem. ALWAYS
Careful, people might think you're serious!
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redline248
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In reply to R-Dog • 10:19a, 8/4/23
AG
R-Dog said:
Not that I would ever expect Dusty to do it, but what about leading off with Bregman? Especially since he doesn't seem to hit for as much power anymore but draws a lot of walks?
I also don't hate this, but how often is scoring from 1st on a double down the line?
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PrestigeWorldwideAg12
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10:23a, 8/4/23
For me the line up goes like this:

Altuve
Bregman
Yordan
McCormick
Tucker
Pena
Abreu
Diaz
DH

or if Diaz isn't catching

Altuve
Bregman
Yordan
McCormick
Tucker
Pena
Abreu
DH
Maldy
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rosco511
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10:28a, 8/4/23
AG
I read some analysis on batting order several years ago, and believe the conclusion from such analysis was as follows:

Best overall hitter should hit #2
Second best overall hitter should hit #4 (if difference between the best and second not significantly different, then #4 should be the best power hitter)
Third best overall hitter should hit #1 (if have a group of people who are arguably this person and/or best or second best overall hitter, then this person should be the best on base percentage of the group)
Fourth best overall hitter should hit #3
And then generally the rest should just fall in numerical order

This construction apparently maximizes run expectancy and is also consistent with how the "nerd" organizations generally now approach it.
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Lonestar_Ag09
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In reply to mwm • 10:29a, 8/4/23
AG
mwm said:
Hey, Lonestar. Mr. Crane is on line 1. He wants to talk with you about a managerial job.

I accept. I will be sure and have hand written lineups, I will wear no arm bands as a coach who doesn't sweat, I will eat seeds and I'll take a short sleeve hoody instead of a jersey.

Also when we aren't making moves because of 40man roster implications…I'll let the fans know because I know they care about stuff like that.
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