Farmer1906 said:
The fact that we still have a good SP with 3 starters out means it wasn't a glaring weakness.
Good isn't going to guarantee you a seat at the playoffs let alone a WS run
Is the bar for this season merely "good"?
***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****
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Last: 11 mo ago by texasaggie2015
Good isn't going to guarantee you a seat at the playoffs let alone a WS run
Is the bar for this season merely "good"?
I think you're mixed up. No one said the SP we currently have is ideal. The point was you take away 60% of the planned rotation and you don't suck means it was pretty damn good before and "not a concern". You want to build depth but no one is equipped to lose what we have and still be elite whether its Pitching or Offense.AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:
The fact that we still have a good SP with 3 starters out means it wasn't a glaring weakness.
Good isn't going to guarantee you a seat at the playoffs let alone a WS run
Is the bar for this season merely "good"?
Astros Remaining Schedule:
3 vs CLE
4 @ NYY & 3 vs NYY
3 @ BAL & 3 vs BAL
3 vs LAA
3 @ MIA
3 vs SEA & 3 @ SEA
4 vs BOS & 3 @ BOS
3 @ DET
3 @ TEX
3 vs SD
3 vs OAK
3 @ KC & 3 vs KC
3 @ ARI
28 Home & 28 Away
The only non-contending teams are the DET, KC, and OAK games (12 total). Hopefully the 3 vs DS, 3 @ SEA, and 3 @ ARI will be when they are no longer in contention. The Astros could control their destiny by all but eliminating NYY and BOS from contention and gain ground on BAL, not to mention the remaining 3 games @ TEX.
For comparison, Texas remaining schedule:
3 vs CHW
3 vs MIA
3 @ OAK & 3 vs OAK
3 @ SF
3 vs LAA @ 3 @ LAA
3 vs MIL
2 @ ARI
4 @ MIN & 3 vs MIN
3 @ NYM
3 vs HOU
4 @ TOR
3 @ CLE
3 vs BOS
3 vs SEA & 4 @ SEA
27 Home & 29 Away
3 vs CLE
4 @ NYY & 3 vs NYY
3 @ BAL & 3 vs BAL
3 vs LAA
3 @ MIA
3 vs SEA & 3 @ SEA
4 vs BOS & 3 @ BOS
3 @ DET
3 @ TEX
3 vs SD
3 vs OAK
3 @ KC & 3 vs KC
3 @ ARI
28 Home & 28 Away
The only non-contending teams are the DET, KC, and OAK games (12 total). Hopefully the 3 vs DS, 3 @ SEA, and 3 @ ARI will be when they are no longer in contention. The Astros could control their destiny by all but eliminating NYY and BOS from contention and gain ground on BAL, not to mention the remaining 3 games @ TEX.
For comparison, Texas remaining schedule:
3 vs CHW
3 vs MIA
3 @ OAK & 3 vs OAK
3 @ SF
3 vs LAA @ 3 @ LAA
3 vs MIL
2 @ ARI
4 @ MIN & 3 vs MIN
3 @ NYM
3 vs HOU
4 @ TOR
3 @ CLE
3 vs BOS
3 vs SEA & 4 @ SEA
27 Home & 29 Away
Farmer1906 said:I think you're mixed up. No one said the SP we currently have is ideal. The point was you take away 60% of the planned rotation and you don't suck means it was pretty damn good before and "not a concern". You want to build depth but no one is equipped to lose what we have and still be elite whether its Pitching or Offense.AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:
The fact that we still have a good SP with 3 starters out means it wasn't a glaring weakness.
Good isn't going to guarantee you a seat at the playoffs let alone a WS run
Is the bar for this season merely "good"?
We lost JV in the off-season and LMJ was always a health risk.
Garcia getting injured was a surprise, but the point being our SP was certainly a downgrade from last year. It would have made sense to acquire a decent starter to replace JV last year in order to provide more depth and keep our rotation WS caliber rather than just good.
I think we've been really spoiled the last 7 years. It's extremely difficult to go on a run like this without a dud of a season where you just get unlucky. We absolutely could get hot down the stretch... and if we don't, we have a lot of guys coming back next year and I'm confident we make moves to get better.
If the Mets move JV, I see the Dodgers as the destination.
texasaggie2015 said:
I think we've been really spoiled the last 7 years. It's extremely difficult to go on a run like this without a dud of a season where you just get unlucky. We absolutely could get hot down the stretch... and if we don't, we have a lot of guys coming back next year and I'm confident we make moves to get better.
We certainly made moves last offseason, but they didn't make us better.
Losing urquidy this much was also a surprise. Had he never been injured Blanco never gets stretched out and stays in the Pen, with that the innings to make up for Luis injury are covered by a mixture of Bielak OR France instead of Bielak AND France
Guys...We're 1 GB of the division lead.
Some of yall are acting like this is a lost season and just a stinker that needs to be flushed down the toilet.
Hell we saw this team make a run to GM 7 of the ALCS in 2020 when they didn't win the division.
Some of yall are acting like this is a lost season and just a stinker that needs to be flushed down the toilet.
Hell we saw this team make a run to GM 7 of the ALCS in 2020 when they didn't win the division.
You take away JV and assume a season-ending injury to a guy who finished the year healthy you still have Framber, Javier, Brown, Garica, & Urquidy.AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:I think you're mixed up. No one said the SP we currently have is ideal. The point was you take away 60% of the planned rotation and you don't suck means it was pretty damn good before and "not a concern". You want to build depth but no one is equipped to lose what we have and still be elite whether its Pitching or Offense.AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:
The fact that we still have a good SP with 3 starters out means it wasn't a glaring weakness.
Good isn't going to guarantee you a seat at the playoffs let alone a WS run
Is the bar for this season merely "good"?
We lost JV in the off-season and LMJ was always a health risk.
Garcia getting injured was a surprise, but the point being our SP was certainly a downgrade from last year. It would have made sense to acquire a decent starter to replace JV last year in order to provide more depth and keep our rotation WS caliber rather than just good.
Everyone pretty much thought we would be fine.
Preseason #8
Preseason #6
Preseason #4
We had other holes to fill. Crane spent money on 1B, LF/LHH, & RP. It looks like it wasn't money well spent, but I think you'd be lying to yourself if you thought SP should be prioritized over 1B & LHH.
Ag_07 said:
Guys...We're 1 GB of the division lead.
Some of yall are acting like this is a lost season and just a stinker that needs to be flushed down the toilet.
Hell we saw this team make a run to GM 7 of the ALCS in 2020 when they didn't win the division.
This your first time around here?
This is exactly right.Farmer1906 said:You take away JV and assume a season-ending injury to a guy who finished the year healthy you still have Framber, Javier, Brown, Garica, & Urquidy.AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:I think you're mixed up. No one said the SP we currently have is ideal. The point was you take away 60% of the planned rotation and you don't suck means it was pretty damn good before and "not a concern". You want to build depth but no one is equipped to lose what we have and still be elite whether its Pitching or Offense.AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:
The fact that we still have a good SP with 3 starters out means it wasn't a glaring weakness.
Good isn't going to guarantee you a seat at the playoffs let alone a WS run
Is the bar for this season merely "good"?
We lost JV in the off-season and LMJ was always a health risk.
Garcia getting injured was a surprise, but the point being our SP was certainly a downgrade from last year. It would have made sense to acquire a decent starter to replace JV last year in order to provide more depth and keep our rotation WS caliber rather than just good.
Everyone pretty much thought we would be fine.
Preseason #8
Preseason #6
Preseason #4
We had other holes to fill. Crane spent money on 1B, LF/LHH, & RP. It looks like it wasn't money well spent, but I think you'd be lying to yourself if you thought SP should be prioritized over 1B & LHH.
We face Thor tonight. Didn't even realize he was with Cleveland...
Traded there last week
Farmer1906 said:You take away JV and assume a season-ending injury to a guy who finished the year healthy you still have Framber, Javier, Brown, Garica, & Urquidy.AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:I think you're mixed up. No one said the SP we currently have is ideal. The point was you take away 60% of the planned rotation and you don't suck means it was pretty damn good before and "not a concern". You want to build depth but no one is equipped to lose what we have and still be elite whether its Pitching or Offense.AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:
The fact that we still have a good SP with 3 starters out means it wasn't a glaring weakness.
Good isn't going to guarantee you a seat at the playoffs let alone a WS run
Is the bar for this season merely "good"?
We lost JV in the off-season and LMJ was always a health risk.
Garcia getting injured was a surprise, but the point being our SP was certainly a downgrade from last year. It would have made sense to acquire a decent starter to replace JV last year in order to provide more depth and keep our rotation WS caliber rather than just good.
Everyone pretty much thought we would be fine.
Preseason #8
Preseason #6
Preseason #4
We had other holes to fill. Crane spent money on 1B, LF/LHH, & RP. It looks like it wasn't money well spent, but I think you'd be lying to yourself if you thought SP should be prioritized over 1B & LHH.
I strongly disagree. LHH is a luxury, and 1B was serviceable with either much cheaper signings in Yuli or AAA talent.
Pitching is always more important, especially when you lose your Cy Young
Wabs said:
We face Thor tonight. Didn't even realize he was with Cleveland...
Just got traded - it's his first start with them. He hasn't been worthy in years
Wabs said:
If the Mets move JV, I see the Dodgers as the destination.
I'd rather that than an AL team. I dont see anybody getting past the Braves in the NL.
Ag_07 said:
Guys...We're 1 GB of the division lead.
Some of yall are acting like this is a lost season and just a stinker that needs to be flushed down the toilet.
Hell we saw this team make a run to GM 7 of the ALCS in 2020 when they didn't win the division.
We should be happy that we're 1 game back while the leader has made some major improvements to their club?
Bad pitching on a bad team.Sex Panther said:Wabs said:
We face Thor tonight. Didn't even realize he was with Cleveland...
Just got traded - it's his first start with them. He hasn't been worthy in years
We are ****ed.
I would love to get JV back, but the more I think on it, the more I'm OK with the Astros not selling the farm to try to get a ring this year. The Rangers have made huge moves that are tearing up their top prospect lists, but that doesn't guarantee them any post-season success.
Three-fifths of the rotation that you hoped to go throughout the season which largely haven't pitched. McCullers might as well be retired at this point. Urquidy has thrown 27 innings in 4 months. Garcia has thrown 27 innings and is done. Montero has been a tire fire. Jose Abreu has sucked for 70% of his games. Pena has not progressed from last year to this, Alvarez missed 40+ games out of 106 and Altuve has missed 70.
The fact that all of that has happened and the team is 1 game out of first and will likely make the playoffs is a miracle. Perhaps we take the positives that we've uncovered this year - that Diaz has the potential to be our best hitting catcher ever (a low bar, but still); that Chas McCormick has become an absolute offensive dynamo, that Dubon has turned into an incredible utility player, something that every team covets, that JP France has become Pete Harnisch 2.0, and say - hey that's 4 really nice pieces we didn't have at this time last year that will make us really incredible in '24 and going forward.
Not saying give up, not saying it's over, just maybe let's not sacrifice everything for a rental that we aren't confident is going to put us over the top.
Three-fifths of the rotation that you hoped to go throughout the season which largely haven't pitched. McCullers might as well be retired at this point. Urquidy has thrown 27 innings in 4 months. Garcia has thrown 27 innings and is done. Montero has been a tire fire. Jose Abreu has sucked for 70% of his games. Pena has not progressed from last year to this, Alvarez missed 40+ games out of 106 and Altuve has missed 70.
The fact that all of that has happened and the team is 1 game out of first and will likely make the playoffs is a miracle. Perhaps we take the positives that we've uncovered this year - that Diaz has the potential to be our best hitting catcher ever (a low bar, but still); that Chas McCormick has become an absolute offensive dynamo, that Dubon has turned into an incredible utility player, something that every team covets, that JP France has become Pete Harnisch 2.0, and say - hey that's 4 really nice pieces we didn't have at this time last year that will make us really incredible in '24 and going forward.
Not saying give up, not saying it's over, just maybe let's not sacrifice everything for a rental that we aren't confident is going to put us over the top.
Sure, everyone would have loved to see us get another Ace, but at what cost? What would it cost $$ and/or prospects wise to get a pitcher better than what we had in Garcia/Urquidy/McCullers?AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:I think you're mixed up. No one said the SP we currently have is ideal. The point was you take away 60% of the planned rotation and you don't suck means it was pretty damn good before and "not a concern". You want to build depth but no one is equipped to lose what we have and still be elite whether its Pitching or Offense.AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:
The fact that we still have a good SP with 3 starters out means it wasn't a glaring weakness.
Good isn't going to guarantee you a seat at the playoffs let alone a WS run
Is the bar for this season merely "good"?
We lost JV in the off-season and LMJ was always a health risk.
Garcia getting injured was a surprise, but the point being our SP was certainly a downgrade from last year. It would have made sense to acquire a decent starter to replace JV last year in order to provide more depth and keep our rotation WS caliber rather than just good.
It sounds to me like you want to go for broke and sell out for another couple shots at a ring vs keeping the train going. The front office wants sustained success and that means we can't have Verlander or a replacement.
I would love another Ace but seeing how many hot teams in the playoffs have beat us or won it all the past decade or so, I'll take my chances with sustained success of a team with massive amounts of playoff experience to get hot and win it all.
Ag_07 said:
Guys...We're 1 GB of the division lead.
Some of yall are acting like this is a lost season and just a stinker that needs to be flushed down the toilet.
Hell we saw this team make a run to GM 7 of the ALCS in 2020 when they didn't win the division.
I'd really be careful to assume we are a shoe-in to the playoffs. Yes, we are close to the division, but if we don't catch the Rangers, BOS and NY are not that far off from us for the 2nd/3rd WC slot. And we still have series against both of them. We could be one bad week from looking from the outside in. Of course, we are one good week from holding a multi-game lead in the division (as I firmly believe we would have if Dusty pulled his head out).
In reality, our season is resting on the knife's edge. How would everyone feel if we miss the playoffs altogether after winning the whole damn thing last year?
AggiEE said:Ag_07 said:
Guys...We're 1 GB of the division lead.
Some of yall are acting like this is a lost season and just a stinker that needs to be flushed down the toilet.
Hell we saw this team make a run to GM 7 of the ALCS in 2020 when they didn't win the division.
We should be happy that we're 1 game back while the leader has made some major improvements to their club?
First off if that's how you interpreted my post then there's no help for you. Turn it all off and save yourself the misery.
And major improvements is arguable. And so have we in the additions of Jose and Yordan and soon to be Urquidy.
Crazy I know but I think we actually win the West. Playoffs are a crap shoot but I predict we win the division and get a bye.
Danwell Home said:Sure, everyone would have loved to see us get another Ace, but at what cost? What would it cost $$ and/or prospects wise to get a pitcher better than what we had in Garcia/Urquidy/McCullers?AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:I think you're mixed up. No one said the SP we currently have is ideal. The point was you take away 60% of the planned rotation and you don't suck means it was pretty damn good before and "not a concern". You want to build depth but no one is equipped to lose what we have and still be elite whether its Pitching or Offense.AggiEE said:Farmer1906 said:
The fact that we still have a good SP with 3 starters out means it wasn't a glaring weakness.
Good isn't going to guarantee you a seat at the playoffs let alone a WS run
Is the bar for this season merely "good"?
We lost JV in the off-season and LMJ was always a health risk.
Garcia getting injured was a surprise, but the point being our SP was certainly a downgrade from last year. It would have made sense to acquire a decent starter to replace JV last year in order to provide more depth and keep our rotation WS caliber rather than just good.
It sounds to me like you want to go for broke and sell out for another couple shots at a ring vs keeping the train going. The front office wants sustained success and that means we can't have Verlander or a replacement.
I would love another Ace but seeing how many hot teams in the playoffs have beat us or won it all the past decade or so, I'll take my chances with sustained success of a team with massive amounts of playoff experience to get hot and win it all.
I certainly wouldn't have given Montero his ridiculous contract and would have prioritized SP
Most people were excited about Abreu at 1B, but starting pitching was a more important need IMHO. Yuli was just a year removed from a decent hitting season and would have been much cheaper
As Crane said, but failed to follow through on, "you can never get too much pitching"
Always liked Barlow - would be a good get and fit in nicely.
At least Dusty probably would be gone
I think the offense down the stretch is going to be a nice suprise.
Team wRC+ for 2023 = 104
Player - % of Total PA - wRC+
Bregman - 11.6% - 117
Tucker - 11.0% - 144
Abeu - 10.7% - 82
Pena - 10.0% - 84
Dubon - 8.9% - 80
Julks - 7.5% - 85
Maldonado - 6.8% - 49
Meyers - 6.6% - 96
McCormick - 6.5% - 149
Alvarez - 6.4% - 170
Diaz - 5.6% - 110
Altuve - 4.0% - 143
Hensley - 2.3% - 11
Kessinger - 0.8% - 98
Madris - 0.7% - 36
Salazar - 0.5% - -29
Bannon - 0.1% - -100
This is how the first 2/3 played out. Injuries and some mismanagement has it a little out of whack.
If you switch the %s to our best guys with some rest mixed in, look how quickly things could change.
10.5% for the core
Alex Bregman
Kyle Tucker
Jose Abreu
Jeremy Pena
Chas McCormick
Yordan Alvarez
Jose Altuve
Platoon / Bench
Yainer Diaz - 8%
Martin Maldonado - 7%
Jake Meyers - 4%
Mauricio Dubon - 3.5%
Corey Julks - 3%
Grae Kessinger - 1%
If we assume everyone holds their wRC+ then the team jumps up to 116. That would be good enough for #4, just ahead of LAD and behind TB.
Team wRC+ for 2023 = 104
Player - % of Total PA - wRC+
Bregman - 11.6% - 117
Tucker - 11.0% - 144
Abeu - 10.7% - 82
Pena - 10.0% - 84
Dubon - 8.9% - 80
Julks - 7.5% - 85
Maldonado - 6.8% - 49
Meyers - 6.6% - 96
McCormick - 6.5% - 149
Alvarez - 6.4% - 170
Diaz - 5.6% - 110
Altuve - 4.0% - 143
Hensley - 2.3% - 11
Kessinger - 0.8% - 98
Madris - 0.7% - 36
Salazar - 0.5% - -29
Bannon - 0.1% - -100
This is how the first 2/3 played out. Injuries and some mismanagement has it a little out of whack.
If you switch the %s to our best guys with some rest mixed in, look how quickly things could change.
10.5% for the core
Alex Bregman
Kyle Tucker
Jose Abreu
Jeremy Pena
Chas McCormick
Yordan Alvarez
Jose Altuve
Platoon / Bench
Yainer Diaz - 8%
Martin Maldonado - 7%
Jake Meyers - 4%
Mauricio Dubon - 3.5%
Corey Julks - 3%
Grae Kessinger - 1%
If we assume everyone holds their wRC+ then the team jumps up to 116. That would be good enough for #4, just ahead of LAD and behind TB.
Ag_07 said:AggiEE said:Ag_07 said:
Guys...We're 1 GB of the division lead.
Some of yall are acting like this is a lost season and just a stinker that needs to be flushed down the toilet.
Hell we saw this team make a run to GM 7 of the ALCS in 2020 when they didn't win the division.
We should be happy that we're 1 game back while the leader has made some major improvements to their club?
First off if that's how you interpreted my post then there's no help for you. Turn it all off and save yourself the misery.
And major improvements is arguable. And so have we in the additions of Jose and Yordan and soon to be Urquidy.
Crazy I know but I think we actually win the West. Playoffs are a crap shoot but I predict we win the division and get a bye.
I think we have a 50/50 chance of winning the west, but competition is much better this year. There's still a chance we don't even make the playoffs if we have an unusually bad stretch or luck
Which is why we should make a move to increase our odds. I don't care if we need to eat JVs contract, it's not my money, it's a billionaires money
I didn't like the Montero deal and I thought the Abreu deal was reasonable, I would say most felt the same. Too bad both of those were terrible choices. Hindsight is 20/20 and of course looking back now we would get a SP. We aren't too far removed from having a 6 man rotation so I expected losing JV we would just go back to a 5 man and be done with it.
Fair enough
But keep in mind eating all that contract has ramifications for improvements during the offseason and possibly even resigning any one of the guys we have coming up.
So don't be upset that additional improvements weren't made because the Mets wouldn't cover any of it.
This isn't Yahoo Fantasy Baseball. All of these decisions have ramifications beyond just right here and now.
But keep in mind eating all that contract has ramifications for improvements during the offseason and possibly even resigning any one of the guys we have coming up.
So don't be upset that additional improvements weren't made because the Mets wouldn't cover any of it.
This isn't Yahoo Fantasy Baseball. All of these decisions have ramifications beyond just right here and now.
Farmer1906 said:Ag_07 said:
Guys...We're 1 GB of the division lead.
Some of yall are acting like this is a lost season and just a stinker that needs to be flushed down the toilet.
Hell we saw this team make a run to GM 7 of the ALCS in 2020 when they didn't win the division.
First 'adversity' in some time and how some fans are acting in here is amusing.
Have you forgotten 2020?BadAggie said:Farmer1906 said:Ag_07 said:
Guys...We're 1 GB of the division lead.
Some of yall are acting like this is a lost season and just a stinker that needs to be flushed down the toilet.
Hell we saw this team make a run to GM 7 of the ALCS in 2020 when they didn't win the division.
First 'adversity' in some time and how some fans are acting in here is amusing.
Ryan Clifford also had a big month of July for Asheville:
— Astros Future (@AstrosFuture) July 31, 2023
.300 BA/.359 OBP/.638 SLG, 3 2B, 8 HR, 23 RBI
He has 18 HR, 61 RBI and a .919 OPS overall this season. #Astros
Last year he went from rookie to A. This year he went from A to A+. I wouldn't be mad if he finished the year in Corpus. He's only 19!
The Detroit #Tigers are definitely trading starters Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Lorenzen, it’s simply a case of seeing which team blinks first with their high price tag.
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 31, 2023