***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

6,560,498 Views | 114825 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by texasaggie2015
tjack16
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Who had France out performing Hunter Brown through July on their bingo card this off-season
MaxPower
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France goes in the sell high category. The kind of guy you like at league minimum but likely becomes less appealing as the league adjusts to him and he starts hitting arbitration.
Prosperdick
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All I do is Nguyen said:

You love to see it

Imagine if we signed Rizzo like we wanted in the off-season.
redline248
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Quote:

How much better is Dubon than Kessinger?
I asked last night during the game if he should get some more ABs. Of all the rookies that have come up and had a few plate appearances, he's the only one that has actually looked like he belongs.

Hensley - .388 OPS
Madris - .405 OPS
Salazar - .269 OPS
Kessinger - .891 OPS
texasaggie2015
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I'll add this... Crane trusts Brown's ability to draft guys who develop and progress through the farm system quickly. That's what he did so well in Atlanta. That's likely going to make moving guys like Gilbert easier for Crane to swallow.

Crane wants another championship and Brown has the green flag to do what it takes to get it.
Sgt. Hartman
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I would only trade France if we got Cease in return. That way the team doesn't lose an epic mustache.
Wabs
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texasaggie2015 said:

I'll add this... Crane trusts Brown's ability to draft guys who develop and progress through the farm system quickly. That's what he did so well in Atlanta. That's likely going to make moving guys like Gilbert easier for Crane to swallow.

Crane wants another championship and Brown has the green flag to do what it takes to get it.


We'll see over the next week or so if Crane/Brown wants another championship this year, or whether he wants one over the next 3-4 years. There's a difference.
tjack16
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Prosperdick said:

All I do is Nguyen said:

You love to see it

Imagine if we signed Rizzo like we wanted in the off-season.


I mean… it wouldn't be too different than Abreu. Expect Rizzo is about 3.5 MM cheaper per year



texasaggie2015
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I'm a firm believer in if you have an opportunity to win a championship you take it. You can't bank on prospects to work out. They're all lottery tickets at the end of the day. That's just me though.
W
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according to that video...Rizzo without Judge has been awful
Wabs
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texasaggie2015 said:

I'm a firm believer in if you have an opportunity to win a championship you take it. You can't bank on prospects to work out. They're all lottery tickets at the end of the day. That's just me though.


Completely agree. That's why I'm hoping we roll the dice.
W
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the issue with Altuve...

he's been hurt twice just swinging a bat.

the Astros have to have an insurance policy for him on the roster. Because it's very possible he will hurt himself again this year...just swinging a bat.

both Pena and Dubon are tolerable in the 7-8-9 spots in the order. Not hitting leadoff or second

W
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back to Abreu...

he had a good month of June with an .821 OPS and 11 x-base hits

but in July he's gone back down to a .729 OPS and only 5 x-base hits

and of course still has a negative WAR for the season
Beat40
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texasaggie2015 said:

I'm a firm believer in if you have an opportunity to win a championship you take it. You can't bank on prospects to work out. They're all lottery tickets at the end of the day. That's just me though.


I am not. I am make a big move in the season if you need it, but I much more prefer to root for a team that is good year in and year out and will make the post season.

Winning 1 championship and then sucking for 8 years doesn't sound like fun to me.
texasaggie2015
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Prospects often times don't pan out. If you can make a move to win a championship, you do it 100% of the time.

Prospects are cool! But parades are cooler.
tjack16
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Beat40 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

I'm a firm believer in if you have an opportunity to win a championship you take it. You can't bank on prospects to work out. They're all lottery tickets at the end of the day. That's just me though.


I am not. I am make a big move in the season if you need it, but I much more prefer to root for a team that is good year in and year out and will make the post season.

Winning 1 championship and then sucking for 8 years doesn't sound like fun to me.


I don't really think it's as extreme as win one and then suck for eight years. We still have a really good core in place to be competitive over the next at least three years.

I think more realistic route if we make the blockbuster moves would be win this year, be competitive the next 2 seasons and then rebuild after 2025.
tjack16
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Also don't forget, people thought our farm system was gutted after the 2019 season. But we produced guys who weren't considered top prospects by MLB or any other scout services. Guys like Javier, Luis Garcia, Framber, Pena, McCormick, Bryan Abreu

A lot of people thought after the Greinke trade that our farm system was "gutted". Also, many of those top prospects that we parted with haven't amounted to anything.
MaxPower
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Rizzo is also an excellent defensive 1B. Abreu, not so much.
MaxPower
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tjack16 said:

Also don't forget, people thought our farm system was gutted after the 2019 season. But we produced guys who weren't considered top prospects by MLB or any other scout services.

Guys like Javier, Luis Garcia, Framber, Pena, McCormick, Bryan Abreu

A lot of people thought after the Greinke trade that our farm system was "gutted". Also, many of those top prospects that we parted with haven't amounted to anything.
Thats true but is that because we are that good or got lucky? This team has been primarily built on big time prospects. Bregman, Tucker, and Correa were all highly rated former first rounders. Yordan was signed by the Dodgers for $2M. Even Peña was a third rounder.

My point is it would be quite arrogant to just assume you are such world beater talent developers that you can trade all your high end talent because you can turn 20th rounders into All Stars.
Deluxe
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I think the issue at hand is the delicate balance between win-now moves and making sure the window stays extended/preserved. Not every win-now move is going to totally mortgage the future and every time you make decisions with window extension/preservation in mind doesn't mean you can't win now.

Ever since the Cease/Robert rumor was floated, I've been contemplating if this is the right time for such a move and what it means in the big picture of our run. Obviously that rumor has been reduced to Cease-only, but even that would have a longer term impact.

I could truly go either way.

Does this feel like a championship year for the Astros right this second? A year that warrants a splashy win-now move? Not necessarily, but there's still alot of baseball to be played. Adding Altuve/Yordan + Urquidy back into the mix could change the complexion of our season is a hurry.

I think a mistake late-stage dynasties make is continually thinking they're 1-2 players away from getting back to championship caliber (cough Yankees cough). If you make 2-3 of those deals over the course of a couple seasons, whether they be bloated long term contracts or prospect-heavy trades, the window can shut pretty quick.

But with that said, it's been a while since we've made a big splashy win-now deal. Probably the Greinke deal was the last? Click did a great job the last two deadlines of adding help while keeping almost every piece we value for the long term future of the club. We could theoretically do the same this year.

But with THAT said, I think inserting someone like Cease into the rotation for another 2.5 years could be the difference between adding a ring and not. Like we discussed a few days ago on here, when the playoffs role around, there's huge value in knowing that he, Javier and Hunter will be slotting in the game 2-4 spots. Having guys who can pitch above they're slot has been a big advantage for us during our run.

I'm in if that's the direction we decide to go.
texasaggie2015
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You would be taking a gamble on Brown's ability to draft guys who develop quickly. That's what he's known for. There's also several international guys flying under the radar that I expect to be big time players in the big leagues. Kenni Gomez, Luis Baez just to name a couple.

I remember when we dealt for Greinke we all cringed at what we gave up. None of those guys ever really did anything in the majors. You just never know, and if you have an opportunity to win it all, you do it.
tjack16
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MaxPower said:

tjack16 said:

Also don't forget, people thought our farm system was gutted after the 2019 season. But we produced guys who weren't considered top prospects by MLB or any other scout services.

Guys like Javier, Luis Garcia, Framber, Pena, McCormick, Bryan Abreu

A lot of people thought after the Greinke trade that our farm system was "gutted". Also, many of those top prospects that we parted with haven't amounted to anything.
Thats true but is that because we are that good or got lucky? This team has been primarily built on big time prospects. Bregman, Tucker, and Correa were all highly rated former first rounders. Yordan was signed by the Dodgers for $2M. Even Peña was a third rounder.

My point is it would be quite arrogant to just assume you are such world beater talent developers that you can trade all your high end talent because you can turn 20th rounders into All Stars.


I think it's good scouting/development and luck. To me the biggest difference has been our international signings, especially the pitchers

I'm not on the trade every prospect to go all out train… I'm just saying if to get a game changing piece it costs us our 2-3 top prospects, I'm not against it.
BTKAG97
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I'd rather the Astros trade away Gilbert over McCormick

While Gilbert might contribute to championships in the future, McCormick will contribute to a championship this year plus some in the future. McCormick is a key piece to a run this year. Gilbert is not.
texasaggie2015
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texasaggie2015 said:

You would be taking a gamble on Brown's ability to draft guys who develop quickly. That's what he's known for. There's also several international guys flying under the radar that I expect to be big time players in the big leagues. Kenni Gomez, Luis Baez just to name a couple.

I remember when we dealt for Greinke we all cringed at what we gave up. None of those guys ever really did anything in the majors. You just never know, and if you have an opportunity to win it all, you do it.


Speaking of Luis Baez….

Farmer1906
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texasaggie2015 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

You would be taking a gamble on Brown's ability to draft guys who develop quickly. That's what he's known for. There's also several international guys flying under the radar that I expect to be big time players in the big leagues. Kenni Gomez, Luis Baez just to name a couple.

I remember when we dealt for Greinke we all cringed at what we gave up. None of those guys ever really did anything in the majors. You just never know, and if you have an opportunity to win it all, you do it.


Speaking of Luis Baez….


Is it weird to me that I value guys like him, Clifford, Diaz, and Gomez over guys like Gilbert, Melton, and Barber?
superaggie73
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Farmer1906 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

You would be taking a gamble on Brown's ability to draft guys who develop quickly. That's what he's known for. There's also several international guys flying under the radar that I expect to be big time players in the big leagues. Kenni Gomez, Luis Baez just to name a couple.

I remember when we dealt for Greinke we all cringed at what we gave up. None of those guys ever really did anything in the majors. You just never know, and if you have an opportunity to win it all, you do it.


Speaking of Luis Baez….


Is it weird to me that I value guys like him, Clifford, Diaz, and Gomez over guys like Gilbert, Melton, and Barber?


I agree completely. I said the other day that Clifford is my only untouchable prospect. But I'd add Baez to that short list now after learning more about him.
Deluxe
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It's because you value super high ceilings
tjack16
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So the guy who I am as curious about is Pedro Leon. When he signed with us, we all assumed he was going to be Springer's replacement. Has he just not developed very well? Crazy that it's already late 2023 and he hasn't even really been on the cusp of getting called up.
texasaggie2015
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Yeah, he just hasn't really panned out so far.
redline248
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W said:

according to that video...Rizzo without Judge has been awful
Judge last played on July 3rd. Since then, Rizzo is .158/.284/.200 with a wRC+ of 44.

Gross
texasaggie2015
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Bellinger is 2/2 with a double and home run today
redline248
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Farmer1906 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

You would be taking a gamble on Brown's ability to draft guys who develop quickly. That's what he's known for. There's also several international guys flying under the radar that I expect to be big time players in the big leagues. Kenni Gomez, Luis Baez just to name a couple.

I remember when we dealt for Greinke we all cringed at what we gave up. None of those guys ever really did anything in the majors. You just never know, and if you have an opportunity to win it all, you do it.


Speaking of Luis Baez….


Is it weird to me that I value guys like him, Clifford, Diaz, and Gomez over guys like Gilbert, Melton, and Barber?
It's only weird if you don't explain your reasoning?

btw, I'm not knocking your opinion...but what makes them more valuable in your eyes?
Ciboag96
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Rangers

Home 33-18
Away 25-21

Hmmmmmmmm.
texasaggie2015
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That's very good all around
Ciboag96
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Tampa Bay

Home 35-16
Away 25-24
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