Really good post and thanks for the info. I've also pondered why it feels like our pitching staff is so much more taxed this year than last.
One excuse is that we played the max amount of games in 2022 but we did in 2021 as well. Super short offseasons bled into last year and this one. And like you posted, despite losing JV, LuAce, LMJ and Urquidy year-over-year, our starters have still done a decent job of eating innings this year relative to the league. So what gives?
A few theories in addition to what you've said:
- It's probably important to note off the top that the 2022 Astros were historically good at pitching staff management. We pitched so well and almost everyone seemed fresh and ready to go for October. This year was destined to be a worse than last.
- Framber + JV got us to the 8th inning in 24 starts last year. Framber is pulling his weight again in that regard this year, but no one else really is. Not all quality starts are created equal. Making it to the 8th means only two (or one if it's a blowout) reliever is needed in a game.
- Speaking of blowouts, our offense for most of this season has been a bit worse than last year. I haven't done the research on this but it feels like we had more "mop up duty" bullpen appearances last year than this year, giving high lev guys rest. Hopefully this becomes a thing soon as our offense this year continues to improve.
- Javier came out of the bullpen five times toward the beginning of last year and ate 3+ innings each time. That's 15+ more innings that had to be eaten mostly by patching together high lev guys this year.
- After his performance in the 2021 playoffs, we thought Maton would be a high lev guy last year. While he struggled a bit at the beginning of the year and played his way out of a high lev role, he still ate innings and helped keep other guys fresh for their opportunities.
- We had guys get hot at the right time. Stanek was mostly a high lev afterthought toward the end of the year but gave us a ton of quality bullpen innings through the beginning/middle of the year.
- Abreu didn't hit his stride til late last year and Pressly dealt with a few injuries, so their innings counts were low and ready to go when October rolled around.
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