***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

6,858,347 Views | 114825 Replies | Last: 11 mo ago by texasaggie2015
Ag_07
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AG
That's good info

Honestly the Montero situation has had a pretty big negative domino effect with the BP.

For one you're not using him in high leverage situations like he was last season so those innings are going somewhere else. Then when you do use him he implodes so now you're using guys behind him that you weren't using last year.
jah003
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S
EastCoastAgNc said:



Yea ok but that's just numbers and data. How to you quantify "feel" and inability to throw the ball more than 30 feet?
R-Dog
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So can someone explain the draft/slot money deal? I've never paid attention to it before and am not understanding it.

Is the "slot" just a suggestion or does it have any significance in whether a guy signs for more or less?

And what situations would a team pay more? And in what situations would the player be willing to take less?
EastCoastAgNc
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Faustus
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R-Dog said:

So can someone explain the draft/slot money deal? I've never paid attention to it before and am not understanding it.

Is the "slot" just a suggestion or does it have any significance in whether a guy signs for more or less?

And what situations would a team pay more? And in what situations would the player be willing to take less?
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-draft-slot-values-money-2023/zceyazvq9wngunubnoh5u7vg#:~:text=They%20are%20given%20a%20specific,they%20have%20at%20their%20disposal.

https://franchisesports.co.uk/mlb-draft-slot-values-explained/
Lonestar_Ag09
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The article above covers the details but basically if you're a college kid with only one year left or none you will take what you get or sign as a FA elsewhere for nothing. HS kids get more to lure them to forego college
Deluxe
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Really good post and thanks for the info. I've also pondered why it feels like our pitching staff is so much more taxed this year than last.

One excuse is that we played the max amount of games in 2022 but we did in 2021 as well. Super short offseasons bled into last year and this one. And like you posted, despite losing JV, LuAce, LMJ and Urquidy year-over-year, our starters have still done a decent job of eating innings this year relative to the league. So what gives?

A few theories in addition to what you've said:

  • It's probably important to note off the top that the 2022 Astros were historically good at pitching staff management. We pitched so well and almost everyone seemed fresh and ready to go for October. This year was destined to be a worse than last.
  • Framber + JV got us to the 8th inning in 24 starts last year. Framber is pulling his weight again in that regard this year, but no one else really is. Not all quality starts are created equal. Making it to the 8th means only two (or one if it's a blowout) reliever is needed in a game.
  • Speaking of blowouts, our offense for most of this season has been a bit worse than last year. I haven't done the research on this but it feels like we had more "mop up duty" bullpen appearances last year than this year, giving high lev guys rest. Hopefully this becomes a thing soon as our offense this year continues to improve.
  • Javier came out of the bullpen five times toward the beginning of last year and ate 3+ innings each time. That's 15+ more innings that had to be eaten mostly by patching together high lev guys this year.
  • After his performance in the 2021 playoffs, we thought Maton would be a high lev guy last year. While he struggled a bit at the beginning of the year and played his way out of a high lev role, he still ate innings and helped keep other guys fresh for their opportunities.
  • We had guys get hot at the right time. Stanek was mostly a high lev afterthought toward the end of the year but gave us a ton of quality bullpen innings through the beginning/middle of the year.
  • Abreu didn't hit his stride til late last year and Pressly dealt with a few injuries, so their innings counts were low and ready to go when October rolled around.
mAgnoliAg
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I think most teams have at least one long guy they trust so they don't just pitch every single good reliever 1 inning each every game. The Astros don't seem to believe in this anymore or there's just been too many starter injuries. This is why I've been saying starter should be priority over reliever but 2015 keeps saying the opposite because these guys are gassed. Why can't CJ or bielak or blanco or Urquidy eat innings in the bullpen to help our over usage of the 4 high lev guys?
Farmer1906
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When can we get something like this already?

07ag
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Farmer1906 said:

When can we get something like this already?


weren't the astros buying up land to do something like this awhile back?
https://ts.la/eric59704
Beerosch
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07ag said:

Farmer1906 said:

When can we get something like this already?


weren't the astros buying up land to do something like this awhile back?
They bought the land. I thought I heard they were going to put in several things across the street including a hotel that had a walkway over to MMP.
Farmer1906
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Beerosch said:

07ag said:

Farmer1906 said:

When can we get something like this already?


weren't the astros buying up land to do something like this awhile back?
They bought the land. I thought I heard they were going to put in several things across the street including a hotel that had a walkway over to MMP.


That was(is?) the plan. That's why home plate is gone, right? I haven't heard any updates in a while.
Beerosch
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Ken Hoffman takes a swing at Houston Astros' pitch to build a new downtown hotel - CultureMap Houston

Found this article from March of this year after a quick search. Says they're going to break ground after this season. I'm not sure if that's still the case or not.
AustinCountyAg
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Game day. Feels like Christmas

?v=1678977258
rosco511
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AG
If Crane wants to prove he is really serious about winning and staying competitive, he should admit his mistake and cut Montero and eat the cost and then add a legitimate arm to the bullpen.
Ag_07
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rosco511 said:

If Crane wants to prove he is really serious about winning and staying competitive, he should admit his mistake and cut Montero and eat the cost and then add a legitimate arm to the bullpen.

Easy right?
Farmer1906
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AG
Or you try to fix him? Do we have an obvious upgrade in the minors?
Mathguy64
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Yeah. Crane isn't eating 2.5 years of that contract. That would be roughly $28MM
Ag_07
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It's a typical fan reaction but in reality it's just not gonna happen.
AustinCountyAg
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rosco511 said:

If Crane wants to prove he is really serious about winning and staying competitive, he should admit his mistake and cut Montero and eat the cost and then add a legitimate arm to the bullpen.
unbelievable how some of y'all still don't "get it".
Marvin
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Montero had a couple of encouraging appearances, didn't he? May have blown one up recently but he had been showing some signs of life.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
Farmer1906
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Marvin said:

Montero had a couple of encouraging appearances, didn't he? May have blown one up recently but he had been showing some signs of life.
Last 5 games
8.1 IP
2.16 ERA
5.08 FIP
4.87 xFIP
87.0 EV
9.5% Barrel%
47.6% HH%

The results are solid. The details aren't all that different than the rest of the season. That's good and bad. He's been worse than his expected stats (1.21 difference in xERA & ERA), but his expected stats are pretty not good (bottom 13% in xERA).
Farmer1906
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Here is who should be selling. All teams below 20%.

EastCoastAgNc
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EastCoastAgNc
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Ag_07
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Is Yordan at least on a milk carton yet?
Mr.Bond
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Report: Astros eyeing starting pitching, White Sox ace Cease
https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2678525



Would be a kings ransom
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


MAGA

Farmer1906
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Farmer1906 said:

Here is who should be selling. All teams below 20%.


All Batters from these teams with 110 wRC+



Top 50 Pitchers by wOBA




Who picking out?
Ag_07
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I still really like the Goldschmidt fit especially next year when Maldy is gone and Diaz is the catcher.
texasaggie2015
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I've actually heard that Dylan Cease is a target but I always thought it was more of a pipe dream. He really would cost a ransom but I guess we'll see. I guess my assumption was we're just doing our due diligence and checking up on him.
texasaggie2015
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There's that Carlos Hernandez guy I've been bringing up
Farmer1906
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texasaggie2015 said:

There's that Carlos Hernandez guy I've been bringing up
I'm in.

4.5 years of control. That won't be cheap.

Damn he's been good good.

Farmer1906
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AG
texasaggie2015 said:

I've actually heard that Dylan Cease is a target but I always thought it was more of a pipe dream. He really would cost a ransom but I guess we'll see. I guess my assumption was we're just doing our due diligence and checking up on him.
Very so-so season. Maybe a nice buy-low option.



He is starting to figure it out. Very strong June.

texasaggie2015
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Hernandez is the exact type of guy I have in mind when I say they might pay more than we expect for arms with team control.

As far as Cease goes, it hasn't been his best year but he has really, really good stuff and I would love to see what the Astros could do with him. He's still relatively young and probably hasn't even peaked yet. The ceiling is extremely high.

From my understanding, the White Sox want players who can contribute either right now or the very near future. I'm going to get jumped for this... but would you be willing to see what you could get for Jeremy Pena?

Tim Anderson is a free agent next year and the White Sox need high character locker room guys. It would sting but I think it makes sense.
superaggie73
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texasaggie2015 said:

Hernandez is the exact type of guy I have in mind when I say they might pay more than we expect for arms with team control.

As far as Cease goes, it hasn't been his best year but he has really, really good stuff and I would love to see what the Astros could do with him. He's still relatively young and probably hasn't even peaked yet. The ceiling is extremely high.

From my understanding, the White Sox want players who can contribute either right now or the very near future. I'm going to get jumped for this... but would you be willing to see what you could get for Jeremy Pena?

Tim Anderson is a free agent next year and the White Sox need high character locker room guys. It would sting but I think it makes sense.


Absolutely…and I love Peña. But he is replaceable…at least in the short term with Dubon.
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