Mathguy64 said:

---

I mean I would lay $500 for a $3000 payoff that he puts one in the boxes. I'm not laying $4500 for $500 that he doesn't.

---

I'd be stupid not to take that, you're on.

I mean I doubt he's gonna hit a HR but I wouldn't bet $4500 on it especially if I'm only gonna win $500. But maybe that just makes me an lolpoor

Also don't forget he's going up against the As and this pitcher has ERA of 7+

Ag_07 said:

---

I mean I doubt he's gonna hit a HR but I wouldn't bet $4500 on it especially if I'm only gonna win $500. But maybe that just makes me an lolpoor

Also don't forget he's going up against the As and this pitcher has ERA of 7+

---

So, we think he is going to be able to at least get it out of the infield this series then

Ag_07 said:

---

I mean I doubt he's gonna hit a HR but I wouldn't bet $4500 on it especially if I'm only gonna win $500. But maybe that just makes me an lolpoor

Also don't forget he's going up against the As and this pitcher has ERA of 7+

---

I'm not forgetting about that, I'm just playing the odds. If you think there's less than a 10% chance that he hits a home run today, then you take the bet. Since he hasn't hit a home run in like 400 at bats, and has been trending much worse lately; I think it's a solid bet.

Mathguy's bet is even better. Abreu would have to have better than a 1/7 chance to hit a homerun for it not to make sense. That's saying that if Abreu played 162 game against this pitcher; he'd hit more than 23 home runs a year. There's not a chance in hell.

He batting against a AAA lineup of pitchers. Or worse. It would be faster and easier to go to Vegas and lay $4500 on black to double up.

Mathguy64 said:

---

He batting against a AAA lineup of pitchers. Or worse. It would be faster and easier to go to Vegas and lay $4500 on black to double up.

---

Then take my money brother. I'll give you +600 on Abreu to hit a homer. Just confirm, I'll take your word and if he hits a homerun I'll send you $3000, and if he doesn't, you send me $500.

Dies Irae said:

---

You guys are crazy, you think there's greater than a 10% chance that Abreu hits a homerun tonight? That he's around a 16 HR a year guy? This is free money.

This is the 7th time I've made this bet.

---

So youve almost made the point where you when you lose youll break even and then begin to make money...because eventually you will lose

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

---

Dies Irae said:

---

You guys are crazy, you think there's greater than a 10% chance that Abreu hits a homerun tonight? That he's around a 16 HR a year guy? This is free money.

This is the 7th time I've made this bet.

---

So youve almost made the point where you when you lose youll break even and then begin to make money...because eventually you will lose

---

Only if you think Abreu starts to hit home runs.

Dies Irae said:

---

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

---

Dies Irae said:

---

You guys are crazy, you think there's greater than a 10% chance that Abreu hits a homerun tonight? That he's around a 16 HR a year guy? This is free money.

This is the 7th time I've made this bet.

---

So youve almost made the point where you when you lose youll break even and then begin to make money...because eventually you will lose

---

Only if you think Abreu starts to hit home runs.

---

Im not challenging you...I just seriously dont understand betting.

If this is your 7th bet that means you will be up to $3,500 in winning after tonight correct? So if you win it 9 times you will now break even for the inevitable time you lose $4500. Am I understand that correct? After that 9th time you are all profit even when you eventually lose

I approve of this message.

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

---

Dies Irae said:

---

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

---

Dies Irae said:

---

You guys are crazy, you think there's greater than a 10% chance that Abreu hits a homerun tonight? That he's around a 16 HR a year guy? This is free money.

This is the 7th time I've made this bet.

---

So youve almost made the point where you when you lose youll break even and then begin to make money...because eventually you will lose

---

Only if you think Abreu starts to hit home runs.

---

Im not challenging you...I just seriously dont understand betting.

If this is your 7th bet that means you will be up to $3,500 in winning after tonight correct? So if you win it 9 times you will now break even for the inevitable time you lose $4500. Am I understand that correct? After that 9th time you are all profit even when you eventually lose

---

Yes that is correct, provided the line stays at -900 in the future

Schlappy done right

Intriguing stuff -- do you mainly play these type bets you see as low risk / low reward or do you also play some of the higher risk stuff? You could sprinkle 20 or more very inexpensive prop bets or crazy parlays. Even at just a few bucks a bet if you hit one you would have similar upside. Difference is that you are of course very likely to lose. Just curious as to your strategery.

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

---

Dies Irae said:

---

You guys are crazy, you think there's greater than a 10% chance that Abreu hits a homerun tonight? That he's around a 16 HR a year guy? This is free money.

This is the 7th time I've made this bet.

---

So youve almost made the point where you when you lose youll break even and then begin to make money...because eventually you will lose

---

Only b/c he hasn't bet it every game so far this year

Why is Dubon not playing left field? Highest batting average on the team and sits two games in a row?

Mathguy64 said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

tjack16 said:

---

Altuve will homer before Abreu

---

First pitch?

---

I would not bet against that.

---

+1000

Take the best. Do it. Do it now.

He may not homer but you know he'll be first pitch swinging.

Hey I love it... the Abreu bet is crazy, but I'm rooting for you

Like your RG3 strategy, the most money I ever made was JFF's first year. I realized right away how good he was, and the Ags went on a run where they would completely steamroll teams in the first half so I kept betting Ags 1H and winning (or Ags points total). I remember against Mizzou the line was like -6.5 1H and I placed the biggest bet I'd ever done. I think we ended up 30 at the half.

Sex Panther said:

---

Hey I love it... the Abreu bet is crazy, but I'm rooting for you

Like your RG3 strategy, the most money I ever made was JFF's first year. I realized right away how good he was, and the Ags went on a run where they would completely steamroll teams in the first half so I kept betting Ags 1H and winning (or Ags points total). I remember against Mizzou the line was like -6.5 1H and I placed the biggest bet I'd ever done. I think we ended up 30 at the half.

---

You're rooting for Abreu to NOT hit a homer??

Buck Compton said:

---

Sex Panther said:

---

Hey I love it... the Abreu bet is crazy, but I'm rooting for you

Like your RG3 strategy, the most money I ever made was JFF's first year. I realized right away how good he was, and the Ags went on a run where they would completely steamroll teams in the first half so I kept betting Ags 1H and winning (or Ags points total). I remember against Mizzou the line was like -6.5 1H and I placed the biggest bet I'd ever done. I think we ended up 30 at the half.

---

You're rooting for Abreu to NOT hit a homer??

---

Lets just call it a friendly figure of speech

He's gonna hit a home run tonight

I think he was just being nice. I always root for the 'stros, I bet against the Ags a lot of times too, but I hope I lose. You're just playing the odds.