Johnsy3 said:

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Mauricio Dubón doesn't walk, or whiff, or hit for power, or get hit by a pitch. He's the absolute anti-king of the three true outcomes. No one in baseball ends a PA with a ball in play more often. https://t.co/hx24cTYLxz pic.twitter.com/mVcUQIQV5h

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) April 23, 2023

More DuBonds stats. The anti-Gallo

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It's awesome the dude doesn't strike out, but he's hurting his OBP by not taking walks.

Shots fired

I think I've stepped into a baseball aesthetic argument in the mentions here, but it's really hard to hit .329 and also be a barely above average hitter. This team could really use Altuve back, so MD can be a good backup.

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) April 24, 2023

OPS is a big stat now (obviously)

and since Dubon doesn't walk and doesn't hit home runs...

he's not going to "star" or stand out in that category

Makes sense. Probably more so Springer or the latest version of Altuve ever did. But it ain't happening. Dubon will be leading off until Altuve comes back. Tucker is stuck in the 5-6 hole until Dusty retires.

I wish Tuck and Yordan were both in the top 3 to maximize attempts but as long as Dubon is anywhere near ~.300 I keep him there for now. Lots to get re-sorted when Altuve and MB come back of course.

W said:

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OPS is a big stat now (obviously)

and since Dubon doesn't walk and doesn't hit home runs...

he's not going to "star" or stand out in that category

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It's not so much that he doesn't star in it, it's that he has a ceiling for how good he can be without developing power or the ability to draw walks. He leads the team in BA yet he's in the 5-7 range on the team in OPS+/wRC+ this year.

I didn't realize this, but Dubon is actually leading the team in WAR right now.

tjack16 said:

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redline248 said:

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I think now is another good time to make the case for Tucker to leadoff.

.419 on base %
Doesn't strike out much (~18% of ABs)
Draws walks
Steals bases (5 steals, no caught)
Can slug the ball for immediate pressure, same as Altuve and Springer

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I'd rather tucker bat 2nd. He drives in so many runs and if Maldonado stays in the lineup then nobody would be on base for Kyle when he leads off.

I'd go Altuve, Tuck, Bregman, Yordan as my 1-4

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My desire for Tucker leading off is really just until Altuve comes back. Your point about Maldy is also valid, which is why this all pie in the sky scenario with me also wanting Diaz to take more ABs from him.

Ultimately, I want Tucker and Yordan hitting in the top 3, but I guess if we also want to maximize the RLRL Having Yordan bat 4th is a solid scenario.


BUUUUUT...as Farmer points out, as long as Dusty has control of the pencil Tucker is stuck with limited ABs.

Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

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OPS is a big stat now (obviously)

and since Dubon doesn't walk and doesn't hit home runs...

he's not going to "star" or stand out in that category

---

It's not so much that he doesn't star in it, it's that he has a ceiling for how good he can be without developing power or the ability to draw walks. He leads the team in BA yet he's in the 5-7 range on the team in OPS+/wRC+ this year.

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So, a couple of things.

1) The board's excitement around Dubon is because he's a back up playing out of his mind. No one seriously thinks he's taking Altuve's place when he comes back. It is a little funny you do take some exception to the joking.

2) Let me preface this next thought with these disclaimers: 1) Dubon is a back up player & 2) I am in the Chas camp for being the everyday CFer (although I am not too unhappy with the way Jake has played lately).

That being said, thought is this there is an argument for Dubon being the everyday CFer once Altuve and MB return if your outfield is not going be some combination of Yordan/Brantley, Tucker, Julks if you are just going by offensive production.

2022 Chas: OBP - .332, SLG - .407, OPS - .738
2023 Dubon: OBP - .350, SLG - .382, OPS - .732

Dubon having most of his outs be by PA tells me has the ability to draw walks. He could actually increase his OBP and end up closer to an OPS of .750 or .800 if he drew walks. With his lack of power, that is probably closer to his ceiling.

Beat40 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

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OPS is a big stat now (obviously)

and since Dubon doesn't walk and doesn't hit home runs...

he's not going to "star" or stand out in that category

---

It's not so much that he doesn't star in it, it's that he has a ceiling for how good he can be without developing power or the ability to draw walks. He leads the team in BA yet he's in the 5-7 range on the team in OPS+/wRC+ this year.

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So, a couple of things.

1) The board's excitement around Dubon is because he's a back up playing out of his mind. No one seriously thinks he's taking Altuve's place when he comes back. It is a little funny you do take some exception to the joking.

2) Let me preface this next thought with these disclaimers: 1) Dubon is a back up player & 2) I am in the Chas camp for being the everyday CFer (although I am not too unhappy with the way Jake has played lately).

That being said, thought is this there is an argument for Dubon being the everyday CFer once Altuve and MB return if your outfield is not going be some combination of Yordan/Brantley, Tucker, Julks if you are just going by offensive production.

2022 Chas: OBP - .332, SLG - .407, OPS - .738
2023 Dubon: OBP - .350, SLG - .382, OPS - .732

Dubon having most of his outs be by PA tells me has the ability to draw walks. He could actually increase his OBP and end up closer to an OPS of .750 or .800 if he drew walks. With his lack of power, that is probably closer to his ceiling.

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I'm excited about Dubon too. Why wouldn't everyone be? If you will remember, I was the guy this offseason arguing that he provides value and if played in more of a platoon would be a solid hitter.

While limited by injury now, Chas has been better than Dubon this year and has a higher ceiling. Chas has improved his K% & BB% in year 1 to 2 and again in year 3 thus far. He can also his for a little power. Assuming we do open things back up, Jake might have a similar argument. If I am ranking CF defense it probably goes Meyers, McCormick, Dubon.

I still think Chas is also a better OF defender than Dubon, though maybe he's made strides in this area. Unless Dubon gets some power, I don't think he'll ever draw many walks. He doesn't chase, so pitchers will just attack the zone on him hoping for ground balls and singles at worst.

Diaz in his last 4 starts:

16 PA
.357 BA
.313 OBP
.500 SLG
.813 OPS
.325 wOBA
109 wRC+
94.4 EV
21 LA
48% HH%
14.3% Barrel%


Diaz has a similar issue to Dubon & Julks (so far). He's a free swinger and doesn't draw walks. But I think the quality of contact #s shows even more power is coming or at worst, he can stick around .500.

It really doesn't matter what Julks is doing. He's going down when Brantley comes up in a week or two. Only way he stays is if they drop Salazar to keep him until Jose comes back and then Julks goes down.

There is nothing in the Astros or Dusty's history that would give reason to believe low man on the totem pole doesn't go down.

When we're back at full strength Dubon will go back to a rotation amongst infielders when they need off days. And the battle will continue for CF between Jake and Chaz which the latter better hurt and get healthy or Dusty will say I told you so and sit him with cause with the recent Meyers jolt

redline248 said:

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tjack16 said:

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redline248 said:

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I think now is another good time to make the case for Tucker to leadoff.

.419 on base %
Doesn't strike out much (~18% of ABs)
Draws walks
Steals bases (5 steals, no caught)
Can slug the ball for immediate pressure, same as Altuve and Springer

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I'd rather tucker bat 2nd. He drives in so many runs and if Maldonado stays in the lineup then nobody would be on base for Kyle when he leads off.

I'd go Altuve, Tuck, Bregman, Yordan as my 1-4

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My desire for Tucker leading off is really just until Altuve comes back. Your point about Maldy is also valid, which is why this all pie in the sky scenario with me also wanting Diaz to take more ABs from him.

Ultimately, I want Tucker and Yordan hitting in the top 3, but I guess if we also want to maximize the RLRL Having Yordan bat 4th is a solid scenario.


BUUUUUT...as Farmer points out, as long as Dusty has control of the pencil Tucker is stuck with limited ABs.

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I know the answer to this is "Because Dusty," but does it really matter about alternating RL if Yordan murders left-handed pitching?

Red Five said:

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redline248 said:

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tjack16 said:

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redline248 said:

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I think now is another good time to make the case for Tucker to leadoff.

.419 on base %
Doesn't strike out much (~18% of ABs)
Draws walks
Steals bases (5 steals, no caught)
Can slug the ball for immediate pressure, same as Altuve and Springer

---

I'd rather tucker bat 2nd. He drives in so many runs and if Maldonado stays in the lineup then nobody would be on base for Kyle when he leads off.

I'd go Altuve, Tuck, Bregman, Yordan as my 1-4

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My desire for Tucker leading off is really just until Altuve comes back. Your point about Maldy is also valid, which is why this all pie in the sky scenario with me also wanting Diaz to take more ABs from him.

Ultimately, I want Tucker and Yordan hitting in the top 3, but I guess if we also want to maximize the RLRL Having Yordan bat 4th is a solid scenario.


BUUUUUT...as Farmer points out, as long as Dusty has control of the pencil Tucker is stuck with limited ABs.

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I know the answer to this is "Because Dusty," but does it really matter about alternating RL if Yordan murders left-handed pitching?

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Bruh, I am in the choir to which you are preaching. Give me Altuve, Tucker, Yordan when he's back.

Red Five said:

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redline248 said:

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tjack16 said:

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redline248 said:

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I think now is another good time to make the case for Tucker to leadoff.

.419 on base %
Doesn't strike out much (~18% of ABs)
Draws walks
Steals bases (5 steals, no caught)
Can slug the ball for immediate pressure, same as Altuve and Springer

---

I'd rather tucker bat 2nd. He drives in so many runs and if Maldonado stays in the lineup then nobody would be on base for Kyle when he leads off.

I'd go Altuve, Tuck, Bregman, Yordan as my 1-4

---

My desire for Tucker leading off is really just until Altuve comes back. Your point about Maldy is also valid, which is why this all pie in the sky scenario with me also wanting Diaz to take more ABs from him.

Ultimately, I want Tucker and Yordan hitting in the top 3, but I guess if we also want to maximize the RLRL Having Yordan bat 4th is a solid scenario.


BUUUUUT...as Farmer points out, as long as Dusty has control of the pencil Tucker is stuck with limited ABs.

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I know the answer to this is "Because Dusty," but does it really matter about alternating RL if Yordan murders left-handed pitching?

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Teams are already using their best lefty to face Yordan and leaving him in for Tucker. Putting them back to back isn't going to make a huge difference between Abreu isn't making them pay for the lefty. Plus Abreu hits both LHP & RHP well in his career.

Prosperdick said:

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Ag_07 said:

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So Yordan is hitting something like .450 against lefties so far this season. That's insane.

When will managers stop bringing in a lefty to face him?

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It just proves how there are still so many old school managers in the bigs. Also, they feel like they HAVE to make a move to show how managerial they are. Sadly we have one of the oldest old school managers around. But he did win THE TEAM WON it all last year so I'm trying to be nice.

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You're the stat guru so maybe you can help here.

If Yordan hits lefties better (does he?) would it be worth putting Tucker in front of him this way teams bring in the lefty for Tucker but he has to face 3 batters and will be in there for Yordan.

I just find it hard to believe managers still trot out lefties for him. I have to think eventually they'll wise up and stop doing it. But putting Tucker in front of him may force them to.