***** 2023 Houston Astros Season Thread *****

6,731,314 Views | 114825 Replies | Last: 10 mo ago by texasaggie2015
Boiling Denim
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We're gonna have a really interesting off-season replacing an entire pitching staff that all retire in solidarity with Maldy
Proudag06
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Farmer1906 said:

Proudag06 said:

Would love Brantley to come back and produce but it is only a net positive if Dusty will put Diaz in the field regularly and he's almost certainly not going to. And for as good as a healthy Brantley would look in this lineup (replacing someone like Dubon/Meyers/Singleton) he won't be an upgrade over Diaz.

Diaz has an OPS of .812 (and it's only going up, last 30 games is almost .900). Brantley hasn't had an OPS above .800 since 2020. He has also only hit more HR 2 times in his career than Yainer has already this year (in half the ABs).

So, unfortunately, if a healthy Brantley who hits at his career average (which is extremely optimistic) returns….we get worse unless Diaz is inserted into the field.


I agree with your general premise. If we are just replacing Diaz's DH appearances for Brantey's DH plate appearances then we're missing an actual opportunity to get better.

However, the comparison of Diaz's & Brantley's OPS highlights the issue with OPS. It overvalues slugging. That is why Brantley has a better wOBA.

From 2022-now
Stat - Diaz / Brantley
OBP - .370 / .289
SLG - .416 / .511
OPS - .776 / .801
wOBA - .334 / .345
Off WAR - 2.3 / 7.7
wRC+ - 127 / 114 (this one is a little unfair since offense is up this year)




Where did you get these numbers? Brantley's 2022 OPS is .786. Plus Yainer's big league OPS is .800 since 2022 and .812 this year.

I still think we mostly agree and you were trying to show the problem with OPS but I am not sure about those numbers.

Edit: looks like you swapped Diaz and Brantley for OPS and SLG
3B Paul 97
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Boiling Denim said:

We're gonna have a really interesting off-season replacing an entire pitching staff that all retire in solidarity with Maldy

JV might throw money in the pot to keep him.
Farmer1906
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Proudag06 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Proudag06 said:

Would love Brantley to come back and produce but it is only a net positive if Dusty will put Diaz in the field regularly and he's almost certainly not going to. And for as good as a healthy Brantley would look in this lineup (replacing someone like Dubon/Meyers/Singleton) he won't be an upgrade over Diaz.

Diaz has an OPS of .812 (and it's only going up, last 30 games is almost .900). Brantley hasn't had an OPS above .800 since 2020. He has also only hit more HR 2 times in his career than Yainer has already this year (in half the ABs).

So, unfortunately, if a healthy Brantley who hits at his career average (which is extremely optimistic) returns….we get worse unless Diaz is inserted into the field.


I agree with your general premise. If we are just replacing Diaz's DH appearances for Brantey's DH plate appearances then we're missing an actual opportunity to get better.

However, the comparison of Diaz's & Brantley's OPS highlights the issue with OPS. It overvalues slugging. That is why Brantley has a better wOBA.

From 2022-now
Stat - Diaz / Brantley
OBP - .370 / .289
SLG - .416 / .511
OPS - .776 / .801
wOBA - .334 / .345
Off WAR - 2.3 / 7.7
wRC+ - 127 / 114 (this one is a little unfair since offense is up this year)




Where did you get these numbers? Brantley's 2022 OPS is .786. Plus Yainer's big league OPS is .800 since 2022 and .812 this year.

I still think we mostly agree and you were trying to show the problem with OPS but I am not sure about those numbers.
I fat-fingered Brantley's. I fat-fingered most of it. But Yainer's is likely correct with rounding. Edit: same with Brantley. Rounding lowers his by .001.

BadAggie
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Last 3 starts for Luzardo, bats should be able to get to him tonight.
RED AG 98
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"Oh my goodness. That is is awful." Even the Nats' announcer knew this was just terrible. And Codify says it's the worst miss of the season.

BadAggie
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Lol. We should all want to join the umps' union. What a beautiful racket.
R-Dog
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RED AG 98 said:

"Oh my goodness. That is is awful." Even the Nats' announcer knew this was just terrible. And Codify says it's the worst miss of the season.




Eric Gregg would be proud...how about the one right down the middle he called a ball!

RED AG 98
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In the comments

texasaggie2015
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Beat40
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I forgot I wasn't going to get involved in the Madly conversations.
Ciboag96
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texasaggie2015 said:




EastCoastAgNc
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EastCoastAgNc
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I wish we would give him a day off as a gift
EastCoastAgNc
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Beau Holder
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texasaggie2015 said:



Please let him feel great all day. I can't take Dubon leading off with Kessinger and Maldonado bringing up the rear.
Beau Holder
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EastCoastAgNc said:



Javi should honestly be next on the "skip a start and throw a couple bullpen innings" train if it's working for France and Brown.
tjack16
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The pitchers do know that it'll be Diaz next year right? So they might as well get comfortable with him now
Ag_07
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I don't buy for one second that Javier is confident.

I thought to myself last night that his body language and facial expressions scream lack of confidence.

He looks tentative and unsure.
Beat40
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tjack16 said:

The pitchers do know that it'll be Diaz next year right? So they might as well get comfortable with him now
I think they're comfortable with Diaz catching them. He has caught all but Framber and JV.

I think in the clubhouse it's much less thought and talked about that it is on this forum and the website formerly known as Twitter. I think there is a lot of manufacture drama.

Pitchers will never talk bad about their battery mate. They'll never talk bad about either Maldy or Diaz.
texasaggie2015
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This has actually been discussed by the team. I'm not sure if they'll end up doing it.
Faustus
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EastCoastAgNc said:


Lars just missed his name being an anagram for Tootblan by one "T".

Lars Nootbaar[t] = Raars Tootblan
Boiling Denim
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Ag_07 said:

I don't buy for one second that Javier is confident.

I thought to myself last night that his body language and facial expressions scream lack of confidence.

He looks tentative and unsure.


I think the pitch clock is adding to his fatigue and he's not maintaining his mechanics. His control is really bad on a lot of pitches. There's a few pitchers that look to not be handling the pitch clock well that may need to change up their workout routine in the offseason
gigemJTH12
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Faustus said:

EastCoastAgNc said:


Lars just missed his name being an anagram for Tootblan by one "T".

Lars Nootbaar[t] = Raars Tootblan

BadAggie
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Hmmm.
Ag_07
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Sincerely,

All of us nongamblers
JohnnyTexAg1995
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I think it means the line has flipped which could mean no Altuve
JDUB08AG
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Or confirmed Maldy is starting
SeanDaAg2005
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The line did move, but the graph makes it look much bigger than it is because the range from +100 to -100 is not valid.
mAgnoliAg
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JohnnyTexAg1995 said:

I think it means the line has flipped which could mean no Altuve

Didn't shift favorite. Astros still favorite. It literally barely moved. Just normal movement based on incoming bets
Wabs
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Surely Chas and Yanier can't both be in the lineup after going yard yesterday.
EastCoastAgNc
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Farmer1906
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mAgnoliAg said:

JohnnyTexAg1995 said:

I think it means the line has flipped which could mean no Altuve

Didn't shift favorite. Astros still favorite. It literally barely moved. Just normal movement based on incoming bets
It did. Miami is now the favorite today.

However, Altuve being out probably isn't the cause of the movement.
Prosperdick
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Wabs said:

Surely Chas and Yanier can't both be in the lineup after going yard yesterday.
Just prepare yourself, no Altuve, no Chas or Diaz (actually I bet Diaz DH's) but it will be similar to the Yankee game...minus the Altuve homer. Hope Verlander has another no no in him.
Marvin
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Prosperdick said:

Wabs said:

Surely Chas and Yanier can't both be in the lineup after going yard yesterday.
Just prepare yourself, no Altuve, no Chas or Diaz (actually I bet Diaz DH's) but it will be similar to the Yankee game...minus the Altuve homer. Hope Verlander has another no no in him.


I'll go with Alvarez at DH, Meyers in LF, Dubon in CF, Maldy of course, and Hensley and Kessinger on the right side. It's just the kind of card Dusty throws out on a getaway day. Four and a half worthless bats in the lineup.

Wait, he could sit Alvarez and DH Singleton. I dare you, Dusty!
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
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