Harry Dunne said:
scd88 said:
He also won't have Maldonado as his catcher, but I may be overestimating the impact Maldy had on JV.
I think everyone is overestimating it. Its not like these other guys are Evan Gattis. McCann is a very good defensive catcher and they have history.
Not many people on this thread overstate it.
To the larger point, it will be interesting to see how JV does in NY. CFM didn't downtick much after he left Houston, granted he's been with two organizations that are among the best in class in terms of pitching braintrust (Rays and Braves). Cole downticked but 1) what he did in 2019 was unsustainable and 2) the sticky stuff crackdown effected him more than most.
I do think the Astros have the best pitching braintrust in baseball. Maldy is part of that mix, but it's also nerds game planning, bench coaches observing, etc. Hard to quantify exactly how many runs that saves relative to the baseline team. Maybe something like 1 run every couple games.
Based on last year, the Mets are above average in that regard. While Cohen's spending on a few high profile players gets the headlines, I suspect he brought in some high quality nerd behind the scenes. You don't go from winning 77 games to 101 games without some big improvements in day-to-day approach.
Like a previous poster pointed out, the NL East will be a tougher road to hoe than the AL West. That's probably worth half a point of ERA. I don't think the 5 vs 6 man rotation/rest will effect his regular season numbers much. That will rear its ugly head in October. Our defense is also better than theirs and we tend to structure our lineup when he pitches around the defense behind him.
In 2022, he pitched 175 innings and went 18-4 with 1.75 ERA. In 2023, my guess is he pitches 190 innings and goes 16-9 with a 2.90 ERA. Still good but not CY level elite.
