***Official Houston Astros 2022-23 Offseason Thread***

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Farmer1906
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In reply to Ag_07 • 3:00p, 11/28/22
AG
Ag_07 said:
What's the difference in ABs between the 2 and 3 spots?

Is it that big to sacrifice not having Pena on in front of Yordan and this missing RBIs or getting good pitches for Yordan because Jose and/or Pena are on?

That's an interesting exercise to crunch numbers on.
It's not just the difference between 2 and 3. It's Alvarez, Bregman, Abreu, Tucker (whatever the order) all get fewer.

Here are the PA per lineup spot for 2022 HOU.
1. 741
2. 726
3. 700
4. 688
5. 671
6. 657

The options would be.

Pena bats 2 and Alvarez, Bregman, Abreu, & Tucker get 2716 PA
Pena doesn't bat 2 and Alvarez, Bregman, Abreu, & Tucker get 2785 PA (+69... nice)

Obviously, they're not going to be every PA either.

I think the better pitches for Pena are overstated. When I looked at the differences in pitch mix last Sept, it wasn't all that significant. I'll have to do it again. See if the fastball % & zone % go up or not.
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MAROON
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In reply to Ragnar Danneskjoldd • 3:13p, 11/28/22
AG
Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:
Am I the only one who hates dubon?
Well he was JV's personal CF..........until the playoffs.
What do you boys want for breakfast BBQ ?.....OK Chili.
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amercer
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3:16p, 11/28/22
AG
Hopefully Verlander goes to the NL so we don't have to see him during the games he is great at.
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Wabs
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3:18p, 11/28/22
AG
I hope JV and Judge go to SF
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to Ragnar Danneskjoldd • 3:18p, 11/28/22
Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:
gonna be in the market for a first baseman the same time we're trying to re-sign tuck. Ill let future GM worry about that though, whoever he may be.


I love Crane going beast mode here without a GM to hold him back. This dynasty is not going to last forever. Let's blow our wad right here and now.
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cc10106
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 3:21p, 11/28/22
Farmer1906 said:
CoachRTM said:
Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:
gonna be in the market for a first baseman the same time we're trying to re-sign tuck. Ill let future GM worry about that though, whoever he may be.
I think Crane (rightfully) is looking at this next 3 year window as our chance at entrenching ourselves as one of THE dynasties people talk about for decades.

In the next three years, if we can get to :
the ALCS all 3 years
the WS in 2 years
and win at least one of them....

It doesn't really get better than that in baseball.
I am not disagreeing with you, but I'm selfish. I don't even want it to end.
Same here and this roster is likely good enough to win another in the next 3 years as-is. Maybe Crane thinks another quick rebuild down the road will be simple considering how successful the last one has been. I don't think that's the case, but I'm glad the Astros went for it with Abreu.
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Harry Dunne
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In reply to amercer • 3:27p, 11/28/22
amercer said:
Hopefully Verlander goes to the NL so we don't have to see him during the games he is great at.
I hope he's pitching for the winners of the NL pennant.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 3:32p, 11/28/22
AG
Harry Dunne said:
amercer said:
Hopefully Verlander goes to the NL so we don't have to see him during the games he is great at.
I hope he's pitching for the winners of the NL pennant.
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Farmer1906
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3:36p, 11/28/22
AG


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Farmer1906
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3:36p, 11/28/22
AG
Mariners trying to answer.

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Farmer1906
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3:40p, 11/28/22
AG
https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-abreu-best-mlb-free-agent-hitter-after-aaron-judge

What a timely article.

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Wabs
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3:41p, 11/28/22
AG
What is Brantley projected to get? Do we have enough $ room for him, Yuli and a decent LH arm for the BP?
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kegstand
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 3:41p, 11/28/22
AG
Farmer1906 said:
kegstand said:


I know Ben is not the most popular source, but he is undeniably well plugged in. He's close with LMJ and Bregman and has been pretty spot on with other moves.
Why is he unpopular? I like most of his stuff.

The problem with Brantley IMO is you have to wait and see on his health. By the time it comes time to sign him, the rest of the good options will be gone.

I also don't love how old this team is getting if we keep bringing guys back. Most of the rotation is young, but after that is slightly worrisome. I don't want the injury bug to hit us at the wrong time. Hopefully, we give these guys tons of rest. I'd like to develop some of the youth outside of Pena too.

Gurriel - 39
Maldonado - 36
Brantley - 36
Abreu - 36
Pressly - 34
Neris - 34
Altuve - 33


Honestly I don't think any of the FA OF are really great options. If the Astros are going to bring someone outside in for CF or LF it seems most likely via trade imo. In which case waiting on Brantley isn't super risky. Let the rest of the chips fall, and if Brantley can't go you'll have a better scope of the trade landscape.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Wabs • 3:44p, 11/28/22
AG
Wabs said:
What is Brantley projected to get? Do we have enough $ room for him, Yuli and a decent LH arm for the BP?
They should all be cheap.

Brantley crowdsource deal on fangraphs is only 1/12. Yuli has no real demand. Who needs a 39-year-old back up 1B? I would guess just a few mil. Someone like Matt Moore should be 6-9 M. All 3 could be had for around 20 M is my guess.

You're going to run into a 26 man roster crunch. Its not popular, but Yuli isn't worth a roster spot in his projected role.
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. . .
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3:50p, 11/28/22
Quote:
The Astros would still like to add another bat in left field but haven't closed the door on re-signing veteran Michael Brantley.

If the Astros decide not to re-sign Brantley, they have an interest in free agent outfielder Michael Conforto, a left-handed hitter who spent the first seven years of his career with the Mets. He didn't play last season while recovering from shoulder surgery after slashing .232/.344/.384 with 14 homers and 55 RBIs in 2021.

https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-abreu-astros-deal


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3B Paul 97
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In reply to kegstand • 3:51p, 11/28/22
AG
kegstand said:
Farmer1906 said:
kegstand said:


I know Ben is not the most popular source, but he is undeniably well plugged in. He's close with LMJ and Bregman and has been pretty spot on with other moves.
Why is he unpopular? I like most of his stuff.

The problem with Brantley IMO is you have to wait and see on his health. By the time it comes time to sign him, the rest of the good options will be gone.

I also don't love how old this team is getting if we keep bringing guys back. Most of the rotation is young, but after that is slightly worrisome. I don't want the injury bug to hit us at the wrong time. Hopefully, we give these guys tons of rest. I'd like to develop some of the youth outside of Pena too.

Gurriel - 39
Maldonado - 36
Brantley - 36
Abreu - 36
Pressly - 34
Neris - 34
Altuve - 33


Honestly I don't think any of the FA OF are really great options. If the Astros are going to bring someone outside in for CF or LF it seems most likely via trade imo. In which case waiting on Brantley isn't super risky. Let the rest of the chips fall, and if Brantley can't go you'll have a better scope of the trade landscape.

Can Pedro Leon or Yanier Diaz potentially cover LF/DH?
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Farmer1906
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In reply to 3B Paul 97 • 4:03p, 11/28/22
AG
3B Paul 97 said:
kegstand said:
Farmer1906 said:
kegstand said:


I know Ben is not the most popular source, but he is undeniably well plugged in. He's close with LMJ and Bregman and has been pretty spot on with other moves.
Why is he unpopular? I like most of his stuff.

The problem with Brantley IMO is you have to wait and see on his health. By the time it comes time to sign him, the rest of the good options will be gone.

I also don't love how old this team is getting if we keep bringing guys back. Most of the rotation is young, but after that is slightly worrisome. I don't want the injury bug to hit us at the wrong time. Hopefully, we give these guys tons of rest. I'd like to develop some of the youth outside of Pena too.

Gurriel - 39
Maldonado - 36
Brantley - 36
Abreu - 36
Pressly - 34
Neris - 34
Altuve - 33


Honestly I don't think any of the FA OF are really great options. If the Astros are going to bring someone outside in for CF or LF it seems most likely via trade imo. In which case waiting on Brantley isn't super risky. Let the rest of the chips fall, and if Brantley can't go you'll have a better scope of the trade landscape.

Can Pedro Leon or Yanier Diaz potentially cover LF/DH?
I don't think Pedro is ready yet. He's potentially a better CF defensively than Chas too.

Diaz has played some 1B. He could be a fit there to back up Abreu.
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Ragnar Danneskjoldd
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4:11p, 11/28/22
AG
Ive been reading the Pedro Leon is absolutely raking in whatever winter league he's playing in.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:12p, 11/28/22
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Ag_07 said:
What's the difference in ABs between the 2 and 3 spots?

Is it that big to sacrifice not having Pena on in front of Yordan and this missing RBIs or getting good pitches for Yordan because Jose and/or Pena are on?

That's an interesting exercise to crunch numbers on.
It's not just the difference between 2 and 3. It's Alvarez, Bregman, Abreu, Tucker (whatever the order) all get fewer.

Here are the PA per lineup spot for 2022 HOU.
1. 741
2. 726
3. 700
4. 688
5. 671
6. 657

The options would be.

Pena bats 2 and Alvarez, Bregman, Abreu, & Tucker get 2716 PA
Pena doesn't bat 2 and Alvarez, Bregman, Abreu, & Tucker get 2785 PA (+69... nice)

Obviously, they're not going to be every PA either.

I think the better pitches for Pena are overstated. When I looked at the differences in pitch mix last Sept, it wasn't all that significant. I'll have to do it again. See if the fastball % & zone % go up or not.
Here is what the #s show.

Pena PA by position in the order:
1 - 35
2 - 219
5 - 4
6 - 73
7 - 176
8 - 39
9 - 12

In the 1/2 Hole:

Pitch Mix
49.4% Fastball (+34 pitches over a season or 1 every 4 games)
36.7% Breaking
13.9% Offspeed

In Zone
47.9% (+48 pitches over a season or 1 every 3 games)

Expected Production
.257 xBA
.312 xwOBA

In the 5-9 Hole:

Pitch Mix
47.7% Fastball
38.7% Breaking
13.6% Offspeed

In Zone
45.5%

Expected Production
.240 xBA
.290 xwOBA

Conclusion:
Yes, Pena saw more fastballs, got more pitches in the zone, and produced better. What I am not sure about is if it's significant or due to lineup placement. To really dive deep, we need to know more about what kind of pitchers he faced and I am not willing to go to this insane level.
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to Jet Black • 4:14p, 11/28/22
AG
Jet Black said:
789 in that order doesn't excite me at all.


What a shocker
Life is better with a beagle
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Ragnar Danneskjoldd • 4:15p, 11/28/22
AG
Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:
Ive been reading the Pedro Leon is absolutely raking in whatever winter league he's playing in.
He had a good start, but looks to have fallen off a cliff. Its only been 12 games though.

.191 BA
.234 OBP
.357 SLG
.591 OPS
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to Ragnar Danneskjoldd • 4:15p, 11/28/22
AG
Ragnar Danneskjoldd said:
Ive been reading the Pedro Leon is absolutely raking in whatever winter league he's playing in.


California Penal?
Life is better with a beagle
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wangus12
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 4:20p, 11/28/22
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
Fellas I simply cannot stop cranking it to this potential lineup


Are you left handed? Add chicken, rice and push-ups to your routine and we'll see you in LF in spring training
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tjack16
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4:28p, 11/28/22
AG
Currently
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EastCoastAgNc
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4:39p, 11/28/22
AG
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to tjack16 • 4:40p, 11/28/22
AG
No ripped jeans, clearly an imposter
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Ag_07
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In reply to tjack16 • 4:41p, 11/28/22
AG
Good move leaving the ripped leg of those jeans out of the picture.
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CFTXAG10
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4:45p, 11/28/22
AG
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Farmer1906
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In reply to . . . • 4:45p, 11/28/22
AG
. . . said:
Quote:
The Astros would still like to add another bat in left field but haven't closed the door on re-signing veteran Michael Brantley.

If the Astros decide not to re-sign Brantley, they have an interest in free agent outfielder Michael Conforto, a left-handed hitter who spent the first seven years of his career with the Mets. He didn't play last season while recovering from shoulder surgery after slashing .232/.344/.384 with 14 homers and 55 RBIs in 2021.

https://www.mlb.com/news/jose-abreu-astros-deal




Could you imagine Contraras & Brantley in this lineup?

Altuve
Tucker
Bregman
Alvarez
Abreu
Contraras
Brantley
Pena
McCormick

1-9

No breaks

No holes

Lots of power, avg, both sides of the plate

We'd be the runaway favorite.
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tjack16
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In reply to Ag_07 • 4:48p, 11/28/22
AG
Ag_07 said:
Good move leaving the ripped leg of those jeans out of the picture.


All about the angles
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EABC_AG
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4:51p, 11/28/22
Big fan of the signing but seems like an overpay compared to Rizzo.
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linkdude
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4:52p, 11/28/22
AG
Hmmmmmmm
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Deluxe
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In reply to linkdude • 5:06p, 11/28/22
AG
Does that mean he's considering Houston or that he's going back to the Reds?

I think he'd be a nice fit here. He'd keep our interchangeable seven man rotation in tact for about $30 million less than it would cost to retain JV.
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redline248
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In reply to linkdude • 5:08p, 11/28/22
AG
O?
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Jet Black
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5:18p, 11/28/22
Get a catcher than can hit over .180
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