***Official Houston Astros 2022-23 Offseason Thread***

1,087,210 Views | 12340 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Beat40
Jet Black
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redline248 said:

Bonnettecj1 said:

Y'all are insane if you don't want Rizzo.
has anyone here said they don't? Other than jet black, who doesn't count, I mean?


And I didn't even say I didn't want him. Just asked a question.
redline248
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AG
Just poking fun
n_touch
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I figured some of you would get a kick out of this. Love how he is still there as they are leaving the field.

Jet Black
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redline248 said:

Just poking fun


I know. It's all good. Just wanted to point out I'm not against signing rizzo.
The Milkman
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AG
redline248 said:

Bonnettecj1 said:

Y'all are insane if you don't want Rizzo.
has anyone here said they don't? Other than jet black, who doesn't count, I mean?


Losing a draft pick and $500k in international money because of the Yankees QO wouldn't be ideal. Especially if we could get Jose Abreu instead. Not entirely against, but I would be if we weren't making a real run at Abreu too.
Farmer1906
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AG
The Milkman said:

redline248 said:

Bonnettecj1 said:

Y'all are insane if you don't want Rizzo.
has anyone here said they don't? Other than jet black, who doesn't count, I mean?


Losing a draft pick and $500k in international money because of the Yankees QO wouldn't be ideal. Especially if we could get Jose Abreu instead. Not entirely against, but I would be if we weren't making a real run at Abreu too.


I wonder if that matters less without having a GM in place. I'm sure Click and Luhnow would be all about their picks and int money. Crane probably is mostly focused on the big league squad.
redline248
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Yeah, after the loss of picks from the cheating, I would say do anything possible to hang on to them. At least for a few years. That's a big reason not to sign him...which is different than not wanting him. If Abreu can be signed for cheaper and a shorter term, that's probably Plan A.
Beat40
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Farmer1906 said:

The Milkman said:

redline248 said:

Bonnettecj1 said:

Y'all are insane if you don't want Rizzo.
has anyone here said they don't? Other than jet black, who doesn't count, I mean?


Losing a draft pick and $500k in international money because of the Yankees QO wouldn't be ideal. Especially if we could get Jose Abreu instead. Not entirely against, but I would be if we weren't making a real run at Abreu too.


I wonder if that matters less without having a GM in place. I'm sure Click and Luhnow would be all about their picks and int money. Crane probably is mostly focused on the big league squad.
I'm very curious to see how the free agent period and trade deadline go this year. Should get a really good sense of how Crane thinks.

I saw you mentioned earlier you thought the third year would be a deal break for Abreu. My thought was I have no idea after the Montero deal since it was a move pretty against the philosophy we've followed for the past 7 years.
The Milkman
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Farmer1906 said:

The Milkman said:

redline248 said:

Bonnettecj1 said:

Y'all are insane if you don't want Rizzo.
has anyone here said they don't? Other than jet black, who doesn't count, I mean?


Losing a draft pick and $500k in international money because of the Yankees QO wouldn't be ideal. Especially if we could get Jose Abreu instead. Not entirely against, but I would be if we weren't making a real run at Abreu too.


I wonder if that matters less without having a GM in place. I'm sure Click and Luhnow would be all about their picks and int money. Crane probably is mostly focused on the big league squad.


International money built our big league squad rotation
agdaddy04
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AG
The Milkman said:

Farmer1906 said:

The Milkman said:

redline248 said:

Bonnettecj1 said:

Y'all are insane if you don't want Rizzo.
has anyone here said they don't? Other than jet black, who doesn't count, I mean?


Losing a draft pick and $500k in international money because of the Yankees QO wouldn't be ideal. Especially if we could get Jose Abreu instead. Not entirely against, but I would be if we weren't making a real run at Abreu too.


I wonder if that matters less without having a GM in place. I'm sure Click and Luhnow would be all about their picks and int money. Crane probably is mostly focused on the big league squad.


International money built our big league squad rotation

And this is why I'm concerned with current direction. We'll see how it pans out.
Farmer1906
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AG
The Milkman said:

Farmer1906 said:

The Milkman said:

redline248 said:

Bonnettecj1 said:

Y'all are insane if you don't want Rizzo.
has anyone here said they don't? Other than jet black, who doesn't count, I mean?


Losing a draft pick and $500k in international money because of the Yankees QO wouldn't be ideal. Especially if we could get Jose Abreu instead. Not entirely against, but I would be if we weren't making a real run at Abreu too.


I wonder if that matters less without having a GM in place. I'm sure Click and Luhnow would be all about their picks and int money. Crane probably is mostly focused on the big league squad.


International money built our big league squad rotation


Yup. Very smart guys made that happen. They're pretty much all gone now.
W
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redline248 said:

Yeah, after the loss of picks from the cheating, I would say do anything possible to hang on to them. At least for a few years. That's a big reason not to sign him...which is different than not wanting him. If Abreu can be signed for cheaper and a shorter term, that's probably Plan A.
it seems like Pena --- 3rd round pick in 2018 --- negates much of the draft pick penalties from 2020 & 2021

because he feels like an unexpected 1st round pick (if that makes sense)
kegstand
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AG
Clearly in the minority here, but signing Rizzo would, to me, be an impulse buy from a guy who just finalized his divorce and is throwing cash around, and would not be in the best short-term or long-term interests of the club.

For one, I highly doubt Rizzo takes a 2 year contract. He is likely looking for, and will be offered something 4-5 years with options. Let's say it's 85/4 with a player option after the third season. The payroll hit isn't insane, but it's hefty for a guy going into his age 33 season. We've got a good crop of guys who we need to extend and hand out arb salaries to. Taking on an expensive FA makes those progressively more difficult to do.

The biggest thing to me though is the loss of the Astros 2nd round pick as a comp for signing Rizzo with his QO attached. I appreciate Luhnow and everything he did but the stark reality is that he left the farm quite bare. Add on to that the loss of 1st and 2nd round picks from the scandal, and you're looking at a severe depletion of top prospects. Now this doesn't matter when you have a star-studded lineup. However, when you need to make moves at the deadline to shore up your team, it is exponentially more difficult to do so well with a depleted farm. See: 2021 and 2022 deadlines. The Astros need to take every opportunity to keep those draft picks for the long-term future of the organization.

Additionally, Rizzo isn't even that good. Yes, he's a lefty, but as mentioned, he's had reverse splits the last two seasons. As a fielder, he was in the 14th percentile in Outs Above Average and has put up negatives in DRS the last two seasons. He is not the GG defender he once was. He has posted a 4.0 WAR in the last two seasons combined. His launch angle is way up, his xBA is poo-poo, and he struck out more times this season than he has since 2016. Eliminating the shift is not going to save a guy who has turned himself into a three-true outcome hitter.

And I know there are numbers that support him. 30+ HR is nothing to sneeze at. His xWOBA and BABIP have good indicators. It just smells to me, and I don't like it. I would be disappointed if this is the splash acquisition Crane has been chomping at the bit to make.

Jose Abreu is a cheaper option with many of the same risks but much higher upside imo. My dream scenario, the one that makes the most sense, is getting a package together to trade for Christian Walker from Arizona. Guy hit 36HR last year, would feast on the Crawford boxes, is a plus defender, much cheaper than Rizzo or Abreu, no draft hit, two years of team control. Would need to work on K%, but has the potential to be an incredible run producer in the 7 hole.



Farmer1906
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I see what you're saying but you lost me on Walker. To trade for him would cost way more than the 2nd round draft comp. He's just as much a 3 outcome guy as Rizzo. Defensively Walker is in a league of his own, but Rizzo was 9th in DWAR and 9th in OAA. Plus he cleans up a lot of throws like Yuli, maybe even better.

I'm not sure why we'd hold have even splits against him. That's an pro, not a con.

And his K% is up from his prime seasons but it's still solid. If prime Rizzo was on the market at 28, he's getting Freeman money.

If we land him or Abreu it's a slam dunk. We got a lot better. I'd take either over JV.

Ag_07
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I think all of this 'I'm scared because there's no GM in place' is getting blown out of proportion.

Crane still has staff that worked under Click and he's not making these decisions on his own with input.

Yes I get it but also I'm not too worried. Crane is smart and he has smart people around him still.
Farmer1906
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AG
Yes, but as we saw Click would not do deals Crane wanted if it didn't make sense to him and his needs. Any of these newly promoted assistant GMs going to manage something like that? We've already seen it with Montero. Is it the end of the world? No, but it's different. Probably more short term focus with less focus finding value.
irish pete ag06
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irish pete ag06 said:

I spent an hour on fangraphs today. Man I hadn't done that in a long time.



I dug into their "Top 50 Free Agent list"

I was looking for bats that hit RHP well. Particularly LHBs and even better, people that will be cheap and not require a hamstringing deal so guys like Judge and Correa are out.

I really skewed towards guys that could play 1B and LF... let me explain why.

I dug into Chas. I think he needs a shot as the everyday CF. His offense is improving year to year. He crushes lefites... but was barely below league average this year vs RHP. His numbers are trending in the right direction. I think he deserves that shot...

So that brings me back to the perfect fit. A left handed RHP crusher who can platoon at 1B and maybe play some LF to give Yordan a breather.

This idea prefaces with potentially David Hensley getting to play vs LHP at first and maybe even the catching prospect Diaz who has played some 1st base.

Here's my stats from Fangraphs. I like using wRC+. It's a nice metric to compare hitters.
So here's the wRC+ from specific free agents vs RHP for the last 3 years and the last year.


Now here's my thoughts:

Michael Brantley
Losing him really killed this offnese this year. He was the yin to all of our right handed bats yang. Bringing him back would make a lot of sense, even though he can't play 1st base.

Brandon Nimmo
No thanks. Will likely get over paid and I like Chas.

Jose Abreu
He's another RHB, so not a huge fan, but he rakes and would be an everyday 1st baseman. Will probably be expensive even at his age.

Mark Canha ***EDIT, NOT AVAILABLE, CLUB OPTION IS FOR 2024***
Now we're talking. He has a club option with the Mets and I haven't seen any word on whether they are bringing him back or not. If they drop him, he would be high on my target list. He is a LHB. Hits righties well. Can play 1B and LF. Would not cost much.

Wilson Contreras
Would be a great fit although not a LHB. Has played 1B and a small amount of LF. He could DH too. I like this if they can make it work.

Joc Pederson
Such a punchable face but dammit he would be a GREAT fit. He would be cheap. Can play 1B/LF... and this dude CRUSHes RHP. The Giants straight platooned him this year and he had the best numbers of his career. He and maybe one of the bench players (Hensley, Diaz) could platoon 1st base. Maybe even Contreras.

Andrew Benintendi
Not a fan here. Hits RHP well but I think he'll get too many years and too much money. Can't play 1st.

Josh Bell
Seems like a weird guy. Streaky as hell. Not a fan of this as well. Plus I think someone will over pay for him.

Rizzo
Not as good as advertised in my opinion. Not a fan. No OF experience. Probably will be over paid.

Matt Carpenter
This could be a sneaky signing after his renaissance season in New York. Crushed RHP this year. Would be an awesome platoon/role player to have.

Not interested in the rest on that list above.

Bringing this back. I like Peterson, Contreras, or Abreu over Rizzo.

I think Peterson is your best bang for the buck in a straight platoon.
W
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AG
I agree.

Abreu for 2 years is the player at 1B I'd like to see

pass on Rizzo for 3 or 4 years
Beat40
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Farmer1906 said:

Yes, but as we saw Click would not do deals Crane wanted if it didn't make sense to him and his needs. Any of these newly promoted assistant GMs going to manage something like that? We've already seen it with Montero. Is it the end of the world? No, but it's different. Probably more short term focus with less focus finding value.


I think Lunhow had enough of that "make a big splash for now" stuff that pleases Crane that allowed him the leeway to also trade/sign value picks.

Get the feeling Click didn't have that. If the Marte/Meyers story is true, to me that confirms it.

The next GM is going to have to have the go big moves to keep Crane happy in order to balance out their value moves.
Faustus
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BadAggie said:

bearkatag15 said:




Not bad to have an owner wanting to be a little more aggressive.


If you believe it. It has a "What is your biggest flaw?" "I like to work too much" feel to it.

"Why did you clash with your G.M. and let him go?" "Because I wanted to spend a bunch of money on big names, and he wouldn't let me," - all while brushing up to the luxury tax once over the last 7 years (once the Astros started making the playoffs).

And I would have spent more money too if it wasn't for that meddling GM! [/scooby doo]

I don't really care though who wins the PR battle. We're World Series champs.
kegstand
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Farmer1906 said:

I see what you're saying but you lost me on Walker. To trade for him would cost way more than the 2nd round draft comp. He's just as much a 3 outcome guy as Rizzo. Defensively Walker is in a league of his own, but Rizzo was 9th in DWAR and 9th in OAA. Plus he cleans up a lot of throws like Yuli, maybe even better.

I'm not sure why we'd hold have even splits against him. That's an pro, not a con.

And his K% is up from his prime seasons but it's still solid. If prime Rizzo was on the market at 28, he's getting Freeman money.

If we land him or Abreu it's a slam dunk. We got a lot better. I'd take either over JV.




My point with the splits is that he doesn't really provide the traditional LHB split advantage, which is supposedly in the pro column. And yeah Walker is arguably as much of a three-outcome guy but he's cheaper, younger, has the RHB advantage of the Crawford Boxes, and is an elite defender.

As far as cost goes, the trade piece is Urquidy. You *might* have to throw some cash in. I will take that every day of the week. Urquidy's trade value peaked at the deadline. We didn't move him. The highest it's going to be moving forward is right now. He's likely going to have to fight Garcia and Brown for a spot on the back end of the rotation (esp if JV returns) and his analytics are quite simply not that good. No doubt ARI could see him and his 3 years of team control + reunion with Strom as a worthwhile trade.
BMX Bandit
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Pass on Rizzo if over 2 years. Throw that money at Tucker, Bregman and altuve


Not convinced rosenthal has a legitimate source on this. Possible, but he doesn't seem like who front office would leak it to.
Farmer1906
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AG


gigemJTH12
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that guy has 500 followers
spadilly
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S
There's a Jeff Passan story on ESPN today, but its paywalled.

Houston Astros' inner turmoil through World Series run (espn.com)

Here's the intro before I'm locked out:
Quote:

In the six days between the Houston Astros winning a World Series and getting rid of their general manager, members of the organization, from players to coaching staff to front office, called one another trying to piece together what was happening.

Over the last year, the disarray in the Astros' front office had exposed itself often enough that employees at all levels wondered how, exactly, an organization so adept on the field could be so chaotic among those tasked with building that on-field unit. They knew about the palace intrigue, had watched the behind-the-scenes machinations that had persisted throughout the season. They had one Hall-of-Fame advisor with a reputation for yelling at people, another frequently questioning the organization's direction. All the while, a general manager was under siege, and the owner who had vowed to take a more hands-on approach because of that crisis watched it all play out.

But suddenly, last week, the information spigot turned off. Rumors swirled about the future of the organization, and no one could get an answer. By Friday, after the news of James Click's eyebrow-raising ouster, one thing was clear: The only person with clarity over what was happening with the Astros -- owner Jim Crane -- was disinclined to tip his hand.

Now, those inside the Astros are asking questions that World Series-winning teams rarely must ask. Is the team that reached six American League Championship Series, four World Series and won a pair of championships in the last half-dozen seasons really considering pivoting from the analytics-heavy approach that built the team into a monster? Without Click, who will shepherd the team forward? And is the answer to that question perhaps the person already at the center of the front-office dysfunction?
"Sometimes I wonder if Jim thinks he's Jerry Jones," said one Astros employee, who was among the dozen people with knowledge of the organization with whom ESPN spoke to better understand the inner workings of arguably the most successful franchise in baseball. Not since Larry MacPhail in 1947 has a championship franchise parted ways with its top baseball executive so soon after a title, but what became clear over those conversations was Crane's willingness to meddle in baseball-operations decisions, much like the Dallas Cowboys owner who also serves as GM. It's a path certainly in Crane's purview as owner but rare among his peers in baseball -- and it suggests that Click's work always came with impediments.




Nino Brown
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Ag_07 said:

I think all of this 'I'm scared because there's no GM in place' is getting blown out of proportion.

Crane still has staff that worked under Click and he's not making these decisions on his own with input.

Yes I get it but also I'm not too worried. Crane is smart and he has smart people around him still.


It's only used as hit pieces with no sources by dbags like Passan. Dudes a tool who stirs **** up just to keep his boss happy.

BMX Bandit
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gigemJTH12 said:

that guy has 500 followers
if its on twitter, its legit
gigemJTH12
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Passan is such a dramatic little b****
Wabs
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AG
spadilly said:

There's a Jeff Passan story on ESPN today, but its paywalled.

Houston Astros' inner turmoil through World Series run (espn.com)

Here's the intro before I'm locked out:
Quote:

In the six days between the Houston Astros winning a World Series and getting rid of their general manager, members of the organization, from players to coaching staff to front office, called one another trying to piece together what was happening.

Over the last year, the disarray in the Astros' front office had exposed itself often enough that employees at all levels wondered how, exactly, an organization so adept on the field could be so chaotic among those tasked with building that on-field unit. They knew about the palace intrigue, had watched the behind-the-scenes machinations that had persisted throughout the season. They had one Hall-of-Fame advisor with a reputation for yelling at people, another frequently questioning the organization's direction. All the while, a general manager was under siege, and the owner who had vowed to take a more hands-on approach because of that crisis watched it all play out.

But suddenly, last week, the information spigot turned off. Rumors swirled about the future of the organization, and no one could get an answer. By Friday, after the news of James Click's eyebrow-raising ouster, one thing was clear: The only person with clarity over what was happening with the Astros -- owner Jim Crane -- was disinclined to tip his hand.

Now, those inside the Astros are asking questions that World Series-winning teams rarely must ask. Is the team that reached six American League Championship Series, four World Series and won a pair of championships in the last half-dozen seasons really considering pivoting from the analytics-heavy approach that built the team into a monster? Without Click, who will shepherd the team forward? And is the answer to that question perhaps the person already at the center of the front-office dysfunction?
"Sometimes I wonder if Jim thinks he's Jerry Jones," said one Astros employee, who was among the dozen people with knowledge of the organization with whom ESPN spoke to better understand the inner workings of arguably the most successful franchise in baseball. Not since Larry MacPhail in 1947 has a championship franchise parted ways with its top baseball executive so soon after a title, but what became clear over those conversations was Crane's willingness to meddle in baseball-operations decisions, much like the Dallas Cowboys owner who also serves as GM. It's a path certainly in Crane's purview as owner but rare among his peers in baseball -- and it suggests that Click's work always came with impediments.


Blah, blah, ****ing blah. Won the World Series.


Wabs
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AG
cone
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AG
spadilly said:

There's a Jeff Passan story on ESPN today, but its paywalled.

Houston Astros' inner turmoil through World Series run (espn.com)

Here's the intro before I'm locked out:
Quote:

In the six days between the Houston Astros winning a World Series and getting rid of their general manager, members of the organization, from players to coaching staff to front office, called one another trying to piece together what was happening.

Over the last year, the disarray in the Astros' front office had exposed itself often enough that employees at all levels wondered how, exactly, an organization so adept on the field could be so chaotic among those tasked with building that on-field unit. They knew about the palace intrigue, had watched the behind-the-scenes machinations that had persisted throughout the season. They had one Hall-of-Fame advisor with a reputation for yelling at people, another frequently questioning the organization's direction. All the while, a general manager was under siege, and the owner who had vowed to take a more hands-on approach because of that crisis watched it all play out.

But suddenly, last week, the information spigot turned off. Rumors swirled about the future of the organization, and no one could get an answer. By Friday, after the news of James Click's eyebrow-raising ouster, one thing was clear: The only person with clarity over what was happening with the Astros -- owner Jim Crane -- was disinclined to tip his hand.

Now, those inside the Astros are asking questions that World Series-winning teams rarely must ask. Is the team that reached six American League Championship Series, four World Series and won a pair of championships in the last half-dozen seasons really considering pivoting from the analytics-heavy approach that built the team into a monster? Without Click, who will shepherd the team forward? And is the answer to that question perhaps the person already at the center of the front-office dysfunction?
"Sometimes I wonder if Jim thinks he's Jerry Jones," said one Astros employee, who was among the dozen people with knowledge of the organization with whom ESPN spoke to better understand the inner workings of arguably the most successful franchise in baseball. Not since Larry MacPhail in 1947 has a championship franchise parted ways with its top baseball executive so soon after a title, but what became clear over those conversations was Crane's willingness to meddle in baseball-operations decisions, much like the Dallas Cowboys owner who also serves as GM. It's a path certainly in Crane's purview as owner but rare among his peers in baseball -- and it suggests that Click's work always came with impediments.





eat **** Jeff

kiss the championship ring
EABC_AG
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He listed Ausmus as a potential GM candidate. If Brad Ausmus is hired as GM, I do seriously question wth Crane is doing
cone
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AG
Jeff Passan

sustainability expert

wu tang lyrics in the bio

tells people on twitter child please

says a combined no hitter isn't really a no hitter because otherwise it might hurt the no hit team's feelings

pretty much a d***less wonder that looks like a grown up marionette
Farmer1906
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loma_vista78 said:

He listed Ausmus as a potential GM candidate. If Brad Ausmus is hired as GM, I do seriously question wth Crane is doing
I don't think this happens. I think Click will find someone very smart to run the team eventually. But if it does, I think it will be a disaster.
AustinCountyAg
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I see all this Crane/Click drame.....

as Click was wanting to manage the team on a budget level and keep the team competitive for as long as possible.

and Crane wanting to "win now" and spend what I need to spend to make it happen while the core is here. In the not so distant future Altuve will be declining, Tucker most likely gone for a big contract, Bregman possibly gone for a big contract, JV is questionable to return. Yes, the rotation for the most part will be in tact for several more years, but several of the key position players in this nice little run we've had are on the back end of it most likely in terms of remaining on the team imo.

I think Crane wants to solidify the dynasty and make it to where people cant argue about the 17' championship. Just my opinion....
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