***Official Houston Astros 2022-23 Offseason Thread***

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Farmer1906
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11:11a, 11/14/22
AG
Random question of the day.

Would Dusty run out 2 different "A" lineups depending on the matchup?

Assume we sign Brantly or go get someone like Joc or Conforto. All 3 are elite vs righties yet avg to below avg vs lefties.

Could you see Dusty doing something like this?

Altuve
Brantley vs RHP / Pena vs LHP
Alvarez
Bregman
Tucker
1st Base TBD
Brantley vs LHP / Pena vs RHP
Chas
Maldy
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Harry Dunne • 11:15a, 11/14/22
AG
Harry Dunne said:
MaxPower said:
I miss Correa. I'm probably in the minority but I'd take Carlos at third over Bregman. Bregman is solid there but I think Correa's cannon could make him a GGer. Caminiti kind of player.
I'll take the guy who has played 155 games or more in 4 of the last 5 full over the guy who has never played 155 games and never will.

Those trajectories are even more likely to continue in their opposite directions with Bregman wanting one last big contract and Correa getting locked up until at or near retirement.

There was a recent article on all the top SS and their defense. Correa may be a 3B sooner than some think. he article goes on to say he's young and should bounce back. I am not so sure.

Quote:

What, then, to make of Correa, who had rated as the third-best defensive shortstop over 2018-'21 (+49 OAA) before posting a surprising -3 OAA in 2022? (DRS did not have him as a negative, but, in dropping him from +20 to +3, saw him taking an even bigger step back than Statcast did.)

He still has one of baseball's strongest shortstop throwing arms; that hasn't changed. His speed has declined considerably, from 84th percentile as a rookie to just 45th in 2022. (He hasn't stolen a base since April, 2019.) That's not ideal, though we'd caution against worrying about that too much, because shortstop defense isn't about top-end running speed, and it was a similar 48th percentile in 2021, when he rated well.

On the other hand, again splitting OAA into "getting to the spot" and "completing the play," and using the first as a proxy for range, the trend isn't exactly going in the right way.
2018: +6 OAA
2019: +2
2020: +1
2021: -1
2022: -5
https://www.mlb.com/news/which-2022-free-agent-shortstop-star-is-the-best-defender
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Ag_07
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 11:23a, 11/14/22
AG
I'm gonna wait until at least spring training before I start bltching about a Dusty lineup.

Winning a ring bought him some time.
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Ryan34
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 11:24a, 11/14/22
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Random question of the day.

Would Dusty run out 2 different "A" lineups depending on the matchup?

Assume we sign Brantly or go get someone like Joc or Conforto. All 3 are elite vs righties yet avg to below avg vs lefties.

Could you see Dusty doing something like this?

Altuve
Brantley vs RHP / Pena vs LHP
Alvarez
Bregman
Tucker
1st Base TBD
Brantley vs LHP / Pena vs RHP
Chas
Maldy

No, I think Pena would bat 2nd regardless and Brantley/whoever could potentially get platooned.
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n_touch
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In reply to Lonestar_Ag09 • 11:43a, 11/14/22
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
CC 1-3 in World Series appearances

Peña 1-1 in World Series appearances.

I'm fine with status quo
CC 1-2 no?
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Ag_07
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In reply to n_touch • 11:57a, 11/14/22
AG
17
19
21

Nice that were losing track of such things
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redline248
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In reply to n_touch • 12:02p, 11/14/22
AG
n_touch said:
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
CC 1-3 in World Series appearances

Peña 1-1 in World Series appearances.

I'm fine with status quo
CC 1-2 no?
he's saying 1 for 3, not 1 win 3 losses
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irish pete ag06
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:11p, 11/14/22
AG
This is my wish too farmer. Like you, I doubt dusty will.


That's why I like joc pederson so much. Let him man first vs righties. Then let Hensley/Diaz play vs LHP. Gets the young guys ABs in good situations. Let Joc just crush righties and bat 6-7 hole.
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bigjag19
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In reply to redline248 • 12:11p, 11/14/22
AG
redline248 said:
n_touch said:
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
CC 1-3 in World Series appearances

Peña 1-1 in World Series appearances.

I'm fine with status quo
CC 1-2 no?
he's saying 1 for 3, not 1 win 3 losses


Tripped me up for a sec too. Bad way to write it.
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bearkatag15
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12:29p, 11/14/22
AG
Man of the people… also getting in line 27 hours early for this is the definition of insanity







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Red Five
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In reply to bigjag19 • 12:30p, 11/14/22
AG
bigjag19 said:
redline248 said:
n_touch said:
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
CC 1-3 in World Series appearances

Peña 1-1 in World Series appearances.

I'm fine with status quo
CC 1-2 no?
he's saying 1 for 3, not 1 win 3 losses


Tripped me up for a sec too. Bad way to write it.
This is a baseball discussion. There should never be any ambiguity about what someone being 1-3 means.
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3B Paul 97
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 12:32p, 11/14/22
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Random question of the day.

Would Dusty run out 2 different "A" lineups depending on the matchup?

Assume we sign Brantly or go get someone like Joc or Conforto. All 3 are elite vs righties yet avg to below avg vs lefties.

Could you see Dusty doing something like this?

Altuve
Brantley vs RHP / Pena vs LHP
Alvarez
Bregman
Tucker
1st Base TBD
Brantley vs LHP / Pena vs RHP
Chas
Maldy

This question would be for the playoffs 23. You know there won't be any set lineup for the regular season.
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Lonestar_Ag09
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In reply to Red Five • 12:32p, 11/14/22
AG
Red Five said:
bigjag19 said:
redline248 said:
n_touch said:
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
CC 1-3 in World Series appearances

Peña 1-1 in World Series appearances.

I'm fine with status quo
CC 1-2 no?
he's saying 1 for 3, not 1 win 3 losses


Tripped me up for a sec too. Bad way to write it.
This is a baseball discussion. There should never be any ambiguity about what someone being 1-3 means.
Agreed, I went back and changed it anyways though
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cone
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12:34p, 11/14/22
AG
any new sustainability news from the expert Jeff Passan?
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3B Paul 97
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 12:36p, 11/14/22
AG
bearkatag15 said:
Man of the people… also getting in line 27 hours early for this is the definition of insanity








How many ladies will ask for a Fingered Box instead of a Finger Box?
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redline248
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In reply to Red Five • 12:36p, 11/14/22
AG
Red Five said:
bigjag19 said:
redline248 said:
n_touch said:
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
CC 1-3 in World Series appearances

Peña 1-1 in World Series appearances.

I'm fine with status quo
CC 1-2 no?
he's saying 1 for 3, not 1 win 3 losses


Tripped me up for a sec too. Bad way to write it.
This is a baseball discussion. There should never be any ambiguity about what someone being 1-3 means.
What does a team's record of 4-6 mean in April?

/devil's advocate
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iamtheglove
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 12:49p, 11/14/22
bearkatag15 said:
Man of the people… also getting in line 27 hours early for this is the definition of insanity









Someone needs to do the guy walking with his GF and checking out the other girl meme with JP, Taco Arandas and Canes
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redline248
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In reply to iamtheglove • 12:59p, 11/14/22
AG
brilliant
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Prosperdick
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1:01p, 11/14/22
AG
Accidentally clicked on the Rangers thread and decided to see what they talked about during the World Series...this was by far the best cold take:

Quote:
bmac_aggie18
2:24p, 11/2/22
Y'all should head to the Astros thread and see how miserable they are, makes my day
Of course this was the day after we got stomped in game 3. I'd love to reply to the thread and innocently ask "Hmmm, Nov 2nd, how did the game go that night?"

I also love the "made his day" quip. Something tells me it didn't and certainly not that evening.
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bigjag19
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In reply to redline248 • 1:09p, 11/14/22
AG
redline248 said:
Red Five said:
bigjag19 said:
redline248 said:
n_touch said:
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
CC 1-3 in World Series appearances

Peña 1-1 in World Series appearances.

I'm fine with status quo
CC 1-2 no?
he's saying 1 for 3, not 1 win 3 losses


Tripped me up for a sec too. Bad way to write it.
This is a baseball discussion. There should never be any ambiguity about what someone being 1-3 means.
What does a team's record of 4-6 mean in April?

/devil's advocate


This. Batting yes, winning no.
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All I do is Nguyen
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1:21p, 11/14/22
Is it concerning that we have only signed Montero and no one else yet? I am not just talking about our own guys, but no free agents at all?
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
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Farmer1906
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In reply to All I do is Nguyen • 1:25p, 11/14/22
AG
All I do is Nguyen said:
Is it concerning that we have only signed Montero and no one else yet? I am not just talking about our own guys, but no free agents at all?
No. Most teams haven't done **** yet. The MLB offseason is a slow burn. We should see things start to move during the winter meetings. Things will calm down around Christmas but then fire up again around New Year in into Jan. Anyone left not yet signed will probably happen right before spring training.
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Ag_07
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In reply to All I do is Nguyen • 1:26p, 11/14/22
AG
Not at all

Stove really doesn't get hot until the winter meetings which happen sometime in December.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to All I do is Nguyen • 1:33p, 11/14/22
AG
All I do is Nguyen said:
Is it concerning that we have only signed Montero and no one else yet? I am not just talking about our own guys, but no free agents at all?
Nope
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kegstand
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1:35p, 11/14/22
AG


Considering the crop of FAs out there, this offseason could really go bananas here in a couple of weeks.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:09p, 11/14/22
AG
Farmer1906 said:
AggiEE said:
Farmer1906 said:
AggiEE said:
kegstand said:
Giving a journeyman reliever a 3 year contract coming off a career year is…interesting


Yeah…I worry that Montero just had an outlier year….

I am not sure his stuff is that good, just managed to get a bit lucky…. He got into some big jams in the postseason


Walks is his only major flaw. He's got great velo, extension, fastball spin, and a rare true 4 pitch mix.


Good point. I just wonder why he was hot garbage before he got to Houston…still mostly about walks?


Good question. I've never looked it up I might do that sometime
Why is Montero so good all of a sudden?

Here are a few of my observations.

#1 Velo shot way up. This isn't uncommon for a starter moving to the bullpen. It's probably the expected outcome more often than not. In 2014 he was a 92-93 guy with the sinker & 4 seam. Now he's more like 96-97.

#2 Walks were cut down. It's still an issue for him with an 8.5 BB% (40th percentile), but from '14-'16 it was 10.9%, 17.2%, & 12.2%.

#3 He's not throwing too many strikes. This goes against #2, but when Montero switched from starter to BP, he fixed his walk problem. He got BB% down to 4.4%. But his soft contract disappeared. He got lit up like a Christmas tree. xwOBA on Contract north of .4 in '19 & '20.

#4 He started attacking lefties and righties differently. Vs RHH he's sinker heavy with a mix of 4 seam and sliders. Almost never throws the change-up. vs LHH it's 4 seam 2/3 of the time and change up 1/3 then pretty much nothing else. Down the stretch fo 2022, it was almost 50/50 4 seam to the changeup.

My guess is the biggest impact is #4. #4 started happening in 2021. The thing is, he had some terrible luck. His ERA was north of 6 when his xERA was mid 3s. The only problem in 2021 was he wasn't getting the swing and miss & strikeouts until he got to Houston. I haven't quite put my finger on what changed from LAA to HOU, but K% shot from 18% to 24%.

This should be a big feather in the cap of Click (?) or someone in the Houston brain trust who identified him and then took him to the next level.
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Farmer1906
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2:17p, 11/14/22
AG
I wonder how simple the conversation was with SEA to get Montero in the Graveman deal. From Jun 25th to Jul 22 (last outing for SEA), Montero had given up 17 R (16 ER) in his last 8 outings for an ERA of 13.09 and an opponent OPS of 1.140. Seattle was probably happy to shed his contract.
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Lonestar_Ag09
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2:23p, 11/14/22
AG
Montero as I recall had already been placed on the DFA list by Seattle and had to be pulled back to be traded to us. And if I recall correctly there was discussion that the Astros really wanted him and saw him as a valuable piece of that trade for the future since he was injured at the time I believe.

I 100% believe whomever does the pitching talent evaluation found him and saw something that they liked and could work with. I also 100% believe that person was not Click, and we wont know exactly what it was that they saw...those are the type items we keep as team trade secrets and what makes us so successful as an organization of getting the most out of guys
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Lonestar_Ag09 • 2:27p, 11/14/22
AG
I doubt Click is pouring over every #s for obscure relief pitchers, but could he not have brought a system (from TB) or helped develop the model that would find these guys? I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Click's involvement.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:43p, 11/14/22
AG
Wouldn't doubt it either but we've been doing this way before Click came in board.

Same thing happened with Pressly, Charlie Morton, even JV. Along with a handful of others.

Used to be called Strom magic dust but now he's gone it's more than that.
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Beat40
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:59p, 11/14/22
Farmer1906 said:
I doubt Click is pouring over every #s for obscure relief pitchers, but could he not have brought a system (from TB) or helped develop the model that would find these guys? I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Click's involvement.
And not to forget he hired the two pitching coaches that were with Strom last year.
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kegstand
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3:07p, 11/14/22
AG
There's no doubt that Click imported some degree of pitching analytics from TB that we didn't have in HOU at the time. In fact I remember that being a big one in the pro column when Click was hired. I think it's merits have shown in Click's pitching acquisitions (Baez nonwithstanding) and unfortunately for Click he can't pack that up and take it with him. You could even argue, as some has, that perhaps Crane is playing some 3D chess here.
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Farmer1906
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3:18p, 11/14/22
AG


Astros not listed.



3 years might be a deal breaker.
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gigemJTH12
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In reply to MaxPower • 3:42p, 11/14/22
AG
MaxPower said:
I miss Correa. I'm probably in the minority but I'd take Carlos at third over Bregman. Bregman is solid there but I think Correa's cannon could make him a GGer. Caminiti kind of player.
dude...what
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iamtheglove
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3:56p, 11/14/22
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