This is for the entire MLB forum. Now that the 2021 MLB season is over (congrats to the Braves), I'm curious to see what people think will happen with CBA negotiations this winter.

A. An agreement is reached and all baseball activities start on time
B. An agreement is reached, but baseball activities are delayed and we have a shortened 2022 season
C. No agreement is reached and we have no 2022 season

In my opinion, with the way the COVID negotiations for 2020 went between players and owners, I think option B is the most likely. I think we'll get a season, but I think it will be shortened.

I tend to agree with Option B. Feels like there's a zero percent chance of Option A happening, and the response from fans during those COVID negotiations who basically said they didn't care whether a season was played at all should hopefully scare them into avoiding Option C.

A

Owners and MLBPA have met 4 times already this week so I see that as a good sign. It's far from over, but given the **** show that was 2020, I have to think nobody wants to go through that again.

so the big issues...

-- adding the DH to the national league

-- lowering the luxury tax threshold

-- shortening the (service) time to free agency

and

Instituting a salary floor

I can't see C happening unless things get really bad (millionaires and billionaires don't like it when the checks stop coming in). I think it's more likely B happens. No way A happens.

Mr Gigem said:

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A

Owners and MLBPA have met 4 times already this week so I see that as a good sign. It's far from over, but given the **** show that was 2020, I have to think nobody wants to go through that again.

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I'm want A to happen, but I guess my cynicism of both of those parties doesn't make me too hopeful

I would hope what went on in 2020, and everyone losing money, would motivate them to agree before spring training.

W said:

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so the big issues...

-- adding the DH to the national league

-- lowering the luxury tax threshold

-- shortening the (service) time to free agency

and

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Would this affect current players with remaining arbitration years?

I guess that could end up being part of the negotiations, but I'm pretty ignorant in how these things work.

Coby said:

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W said:

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so the big issues...

-- adding the DH to the national league

-- lowering the luxury tax threshold

-- shortening the (service) time to free agency

and

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Would this affect current players with remaining arbitration years?

I guess that could end up being part of the negotiations, but I'm pretty ignorant in how these things work.

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I think the most recent suggestion was automatic FA in the year you turn 29. If they did that, they would probably add a provision for players who just turned 29 in 2021 to be FA in 2022. Without that, it would be undue burden to the teams and they would unanimously reject it.

W said:

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so the big issues...

-- adding the DH to the national league

-- lowering the luxury tax threshold

-- shortening the (service) time to free agency

and

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I'd add to that list the qualifying offer rules. There's no reason a team, specifically one below the luxury tax, should have to give up a draft pick for signing a free agent. I get compensating the team that loses out, but its harming free agents when a bunch of teams won't bid on someone who gets a QO due to the draft ramifications.

I will be fascinated by how they try to address service time / free agency rules. I can't really see a great solution that satisfies both parties. Maybe they reach free agency a year earlier but there's a franchise tag option? Maybe you start arbitration a year earlier so at least they get more money even if free agency takes the same length of time? They need to do something so it isn't quite so prescriptive with when the clock starts to allow teams to manipulate. If one rookie is a complete beast for a team but doesn't come up until July then somehow they need a formula that gives him the same service clock as a rookie who was up the whole year but played like crap.

that's a significant part of the mystery.

it seems like every player should be able to qualify / experience free agency before their 30th birthday

I haven't seen much news on the CBA so thought I'd put my musings on some compromises for both sides that look pretty easy:

- Pro Player: The existing service time rules are in place but all players become free agents by 29.5, making it effectively either or. This does not help Correa, who hit free agency by 27 anyway, but would have helped George who didn't get it until 31.

- Pro Owner: Expanded playoffs to increase revenue streams

- Pro Player: Bonus pool for pre-arbitration players to help address the issue of stars like Franco who will make league minimum to put up All Star numbers

- Pro Owner: Luxury tax threshold stays the same but penalties are altered. Higher tax rate for for teams exceeding the threshold, specifically the second tier. Removal of the QO draft penalty for a team that signs a free agent that was under the luxury tax the previous year (rules for what teams receive for losing a QO player remain the same).

- Pro Player: Payroll floor introduced but with small penalties. If a team is under $100M 2 years in a row then they're not allowed to pick in the top 10 of the draft. This way small market teams that are still able to be competitive (Rays, A's) don't get punished simply because their payroll is low.

- Pro Owner: International draft introduced to manage costs and eliminate shenanigans.

- Pro Player: Universal DH

Others that I could see being discussed that might be discussion points depending on the factors above:

- Agreed upon framework for dealing with business interruption (i.e. pandemic). Maybe if no fans are allowed because of local ordinances then per game salaries decrease 20%? In exchange, owners agree to a minimum number of games that are played?

- Limiting the length of a contract that can be offered (similar to the NBA, maybe 6 years). I could see this being something the owners propose in exchange for a higher luxury tax or more player friendly service time rules. Basically a fine we'll let you hit free agency sooner but the days of these idiotic 10 year deals are over.

Before free agency and in place of arbitration, MLB proposes paying players based on FanGraphs’ calculation of WAR. With @Ken_Rosenthal and @enosarrishttps://t.co/K1BPmUdTCW

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) November 11, 2021

paying based upon WAR would incentivize players to play 162 -- right?

It would also turn the compensation system upside down. Currently HRs and OPS specifically drive compensation, but WAR has some secret tricks that don't show up on the stat sheet. Specifically, the defensive metrics and base running metrics are what turns a 4-5 WAR player into a 7 WAR player in many cases.

For me WAR is interesting and useful, but not perfect enough for this application.

I'd just as well see the arbitration system go away completely and just make players restricted free agents after 3 years of service time. Other teams can offer contracts but the original team has right to match.

News from @JesseRogersESPN: In a proposed playoff expansion, there would be 14 teams, division winners would choose their opponents in a three-game wild-card round and the best record in the league would get a bye into the division series. Much more info: https://t.co/YivuoSlyyz

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 29, 2021

Quote:

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The team with the best record in each league would get a bye into the best-of-five division series.

The remaining two division winners would get to pick their wild-card opponent from the bottom three wild-card teams. The division winner with the second-best record would pick first, then the No. 3 seed in the league would pick its opponent from the final two wild-card teams. The wild-card team with the best record would play the wild-card team that wasn't picked by a division winner.

Once matchups are set, the higher-seeded teams would host all three games in a best-of-three wild-card round.

Winners in the wild-card round would advance to the division series and the playoffs would continue as they have in the past.

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Quote:

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A more recent addition to the negotiations is an NBA-style lottery system for the draft. The league believes it will at least partly address players' tanking concerns. Right now, the team with the worst record in baseball gets the No. 1 pick in the amateur draft the following summer. It's created a "race to the bottom," as agent Scott Boras put it earlier this month.

The league is offering a system where all non-playoff teams would have a chance at the No. 1 pick -- not just the team with the worst record. The worst team would still have better odds than the second-worst team, and so on and so forth, but in theory, any non-playoff team could end up with a top-three pick.

The lottery would only be for picks No. 1 through No. 3, then the draft would continue as it has in the past, based on regular-season record. The playoff teams would pick according to how they finished in the postseason. The World Series winner would pick last.

It's unclear if either proposal will be implemented into the new CBA.

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I feel like there's an easier solution for the draft. Just set a minimum payroll and if you don't hit it then you can pick no higher than 10th in the draft. If you are able to compete with a small payroll then no impact to you but you can't purposely suck and expect to cash in through the draft.

Both sides have stated they are done meeting today, so be prepared for the lockout to start tonight. Just have to wait and see how long it lasts.

Some details: MLB offered to raise 1st luxury tax tier to $214m, peaking at $220m

MLBPA free agency proposal:
Year 1 of deal, no change, 6 years service to become FA
Years 2-3: 6 years—or if age 30 1/2 & 5 years of service
Years 4-5: 6 years—or if age 29 1/2 & 5 years service

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) December 1, 2021

Note that the raised CBT thresholds MLB proposed would come with an increase in the penalties for exceeding the thresholds

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) December 1, 2021

I wonder what they mean by increased punishment. If I'm the MLBPA then I'm fine if they increase the tax rate but the draft pick implications need to go. That is a bigger deterrent than anything else.

And now we have a work stoppage. **** Manfred. What a **** head. He didn't punish the rampant cheating by the Astros. He didn't punish the cheating by the Red Sox. He allowed dangerous sticky stuff for pitchers to alter the game and put batters in harm's way. He is no friend to the game of baseball.

A lockout in December is largely irrelevant. They had to do something to get everyone focused on the CBA. If they are still locked out well into Feb I will start to get worried.

Can't wait to watch "Trouble With the Curve" on MLB Network every day until they agree to a new deal

there's no Cal Ripken to save baseball this time. Hope they get it figured out.

LSCSN said:

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there's no Cal Ripken to save baseball this time. Hope they get it figured out.

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There is no steroid era / homerun chase either

Nitro Power said:

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Seeing some of the childish things taking place, I am concerned this might not go as I originally anticipated. Manfred is an asshat and Tony Clark is an idiot (how he got that position is beyond me). Both sides are acting childishly at current. MLB removing players faces and scrubbing data and players responding in kind by changing their social media profile pics to faceless players. It's pathetic and childish. I don't care about spring training, but if the season does not start on time, I am out.

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You have to care about spring training a little, because if they miss too much spring training, you can bet the players are going to have any sort of spring training as part of the negation to come back to play. Especially with all the injuries in the shortened COVID season, and even the injuries from this season as well. The more spring training that is missed I believe will push the season back.

My official vote from my start of the thread is option B: B. An agreement is reached, but baseball activities are delayed and we have a shortened 2022 season

There is still time an agreement is reached and baseball starts on time, but if we get into January with no deal in sight, I'm thinking option B will end up happening.

Nitro Power said:

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LSCSN said:

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there's no Cal Ripken to save baseball this time. Hope they get it figured out.

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There is no steroid era / homerun chase either

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Baseball will use all the live balls in every single Angels game so Ohtani can hit 475+ ft homers.

What are they even discussing?

Given this update by Passan, anyone want to change their guess on when the season starts?

The meeting between the Major League Baseball Players Association and MLB is over. Little progress was made. The on-time opening of spring training at this point is in grave danger and, frankly, would take a miraculous deal coming together to rescue. A delay feels inevitable.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 1, 2022

From my OP, I am keeping option B - delayed start and shortened season.