Ag_07 said:

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I think JV starting has as much to do with the offense not scoring diddly than the pitching situation.

We can win a JV game scoring 3 runs.

JV even on short rest against their BP day...I like it.

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This is fair, I guess. Offense has been putrid, so need the pitching until they figure it out. Our outfield has been the worst among all playoff teams, I believe.

Ag_07 said:

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I think JV starting has as much to do with the offense not scoring diddly than the pitching situation.

We can win a JV game scoring 3 runs.

JV even on short rest against their BP day...I like it.

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If it works, it'll be a great call. If not, it'll be a horrid one. Simple as that.

When is the ALCS scheduled to start? He may have to pitch THREE times in that series with the shape the pen is in.

Hinch would rather start JV than bring him in relief, which he did in 2017

Easy call

KC_Ag14 said:

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Perfectly fine with JV starting Game 4. This Rays team is pesky, and other than a select few guys producing our offense has been smoke and mirrors to a degree thus far in this series (multiple bloop hits, etc). Their pitching staff is better than ours top to bottom. Have to match it with our best.

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They actually worry more than the Yankees do and, IMO, are a lot better than the Twins.

Buck Compton said:

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Starting Verlander in Game 4 is a complete overreaction.

Hinch was so good during 2017, why is he messing with short rest, 4-out saves, and all this **** now??

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I was wondering early today about who might start game 4...and whether or not it is Hinch's decision, alone. Do you think there is any directive coming from Lunhow, on this?

If Yanks win tonight and JV starts game 4 and we win, how many days off would we have before the ALCS?

What if we got 5 games this series? Does it delay the ALCS?

Trying to understand the impacts on rest for JV after pitching tomorrow.

redline248 said:

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Buck Compton said:

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Starting Verlander in Game 4 is a complete overreaction.

Hinch was so good during 2017, why is he messing with short rest, 4-out saves, and all this **** now??

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I was wondering early today about who might start game 4...and whether or not it is Hinch's decision, alone. Do you think there is any directive coming from Lunhow, on this?

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Why the hell would Lunhow have anything to do with it? No

astros4545 said:

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Hinch would rather start JV than bring him in relief, which he did in 2017

Easy call

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Good point. I think Verlander is more comfortable starting, too.

The real complication is if we start JV, the offense ****s the bed again, and we lose. Then Cole pitches Game 5, and even if you get to the ALCS, now you have to start Greinke in game 1/5 against the Yankees.

Not ideal. I know you have to get there first, but could really negatively impact the next series.

exp said:

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So assuming we win Game 4, our ALCS rotation stacks up as:

Game 1 - Cole (more than full rest)
Game 2 - Verlander (full rest)
Game 3 - Greinke (more than full rest)
Game 4 - Uquidy (god help us, in the bronx this is a L)
Game 5 - Cole (full rest)
Game 6 - Verlander (full rest)
Game 7 Greinke (full rest)

If Astros lose tomorrow and have to go 5, it will look like...this?

Game 1 - Greinke
Game 2 - Verlander
Game 3 - Cole
Game 4 - LOSS
Game 5 - Greinke
Game 6 - Verlander
Game 7 - Cole

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Really shows why you need to win tomorrow and not mess with losing game 1 of the ALCS.

Are we overreacting to Greinke not being dominant? We traded for this guy specifically for playoff baseball this year. We can't be scared to roll with him now.

I agree though the pucker factor with him is significantly higher than JV or Cole.

I like forcing the Rays to beat JV and full rest Cole back to back if they want to advance

Someone do statistics and see how pitchers have historically fared on 3 days rest in the playoffs.

I think our formula to win a 7 game series at this point is win 3/4 Cole/Verlander starts and 1/2 Greinke starts. I think that's reasonable.

Before that though, we need to win 1 of these next 2!!! C'mon JV. I believe in you.

The other plan would be to go with Urquidy on a short leash and then bring in JV. I like starting JV and seeing how far he can get. He may be able to go 7 and hopefully we have a decent lead and win the series tomorrow.

Nuke LaLoosh said:

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Someone do statistics and see how pitchers have historically fared on 3 days rest in the playoffs.

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It's not good, but it works sometimes and this Justin Verlander. He's not human.

What the heck happened to Miley this season? Killing us that he pulled this disappearing act.

From an article in 2016.

Quote:

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Since 1995, the first year the wild-card format was used in the playoffs, 77 pitchers have started 121 playoff games on three days or fewer of rest, resulting in a combined 35-40 record with a 4.35 ERA. Considering teams usually use their ace in this way during the postseason, those results are not very encouraging.

The overall performance is just as bad when these pitchers are asked to go on short rest in elimination games: 9-18 with a 4.34 ERA. Only 20 of these 45 performances ended in a quality start and just nine pitchers went more than seven innings.

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I really have no issue with this move. In playoff baseball, you do what you can to win the series. If you start planning for the next series, you risk losing the one you are in. The last thing the heavily favored team wants to do is get into a do or die one game.

Additionally, even if it's Verlander / Cole for games 2 and 3 of ALCS, you will still get both of them to pitch twice, games 6 and 7. That's 4 games of Verlander / Cole out of 7 still. Win all 4 of those, or steal one of the other 3, and you only need to win 3 of the 4 with Verlander / Cole.

Farmer1906 said:

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From an article in 2016.

Quote:

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Since 1995, the first year the wild-card format was used in the playoffs, 77 pitchers have started 121 playoff games on three days or fewer of rest, resulting in a combined 35-40 record with a 4.35 ERA. Considering teams usually use their ace in this way during the postseason, those results are not very encouraging.

The overall performance is just as bad when these pitchers are asked to go on short rest in elimination games: 9-18 with a 4.34 ERA. Only 20 of these 45 performances ended in a quality start and just nine pitchers went more than seven innings.

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Yikes

Did Hinch discuss this with the analytics dept???

Farmer1906 said:

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From an article in 2016.

Quote:

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Since 1995, the first year the wild-card format was used in the playoffs, 77 pitchers have started 121 playoff games on three days or fewer of rest, resulting in a combined 35-40 record with a 4.35 ERA. Considering teams usually use their ace in this way during the postseason, those results are not very encouraging.

The overall performance is just as bad when these pitchers are asked to go on short rest in elimination games: 9-18 with a 4.34 ERA. Only 20 of these 45 performances ended in a quality start and just nine pitchers went more than seven innings.

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I wonder the ERA of those same pitchers on full rest, just for context. Is 4.35 a full run more, half a run, or what?

Mr.Bond said:

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Hinch doing a lot of firsts this series that haven't paid off...

I'd rather use Urquidy as an opener and then bring in JV if necessary

AggiEE said:

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Mr.Bond said:

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Hinch doing a lot of firsts this series that haven't paid off...

I'd rather use Urquidy as an opener and then bring in JV if necessary

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What other firsts?