BigPuma said:

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Harry Dunne said:

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the last of the bohemians said:

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Which begs the question, ... is base stealing the new money ball? More precise, walks + stolen bases could be undervalued players

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The problem with stealing bases now with the HR surge is that you're risking an out when anyone in the lineup can go yard. It's not like sending a guy in the Dome era with Craig Reynolds batting and Terry Puhl on deck.

We could send out a full lineup of 20+ HR guys along with Reddick who once hit 30.

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I read an article on the Athletic the other day that basically boiled the math down to a team has to have 3 successful steals for every caught stealing to see a positive benefit. Otherwise a team is just wasting outs.

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Safe at Home said:

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The home run comparison between this year's Astros and the 1979 team made me check on stolen bases. This season the Astros have stolen 51 bases with Jake in the lead with 10. In '79, seven players had more than 10 steals and the club total was 190. I'll bet just about any team you picked would show similar numbers. Just shows how much the game has changed.

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Ag_07 said:

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Damn

So neither of the guys we got for Fisher are gonna be of any help this year.

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Ag_07 said:

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Pressly will be back, James is back, Harris is solid. Smith has been reliable. We need Osuna to find his groove.

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bearkatag15 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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Pressly will be back, James is back, Harris is solid. Smith has been reliable. We need Osuna to find his groove.

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Who is the long relief guy if Miley has another 85-95 pitch 3 inning outing in the playoffs?

James?

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Harry Dunne said:

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Marvin said:

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BigPuma said:

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Harry Dunne said:

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the last of the bohemians said:

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Which begs the question, ... is base stealing the new money ball? More precise, walks + stolen bases could be undervalued players

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The problem with stealing bases now with the HR surge is that you're risking an out when anyone in the lineup can go yard. It's not like sending a guy in the Dome era with Craig Reynolds batting and Terry Puhl on deck.

We could send out a full lineup of 20+ HR guys along with Reddick who once hit 30.

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I read an article on the Athletic the other day that basically boiled the math down to a team has to have 3 successful steals for every caught stealing to see a positive benefit. Otherwise a team is just wasting outs.

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Unless your team leads the league in GIDP, where the risk is more "frying pan / fire" scenario. Putting the runner in motion at the least can help avoid a second out.

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Logically, all of our GIDP have happened with (at least) a man on 1st and less than 2 outs - we have had 1094 PAs under those circumstances.

• In those PAs we have GIDP 126 times (11.5% of the time).
• In those same PAs we have had 99 XBH (9% of the time). If the runner is fast enough to steal a base, let's assume he scores on these.
• Plus 179 singles + 97 BB & HPB, so 276 times (25.2% of the time) the runner reached (at least) 2nd just by staying put.
• Add those up, and in total there have been 375 times the runner scored or advanced (34.3% of the time).

Also relevant that we are leading the league in OBP and have struck out the least, probably giving us more opportunities to GIDP than anyone else has had...and that our top 2 GDIPers (by far with 17 each) are Altuve and Brantley.

Every situation is different and the above doesn't apply to Straw on 1st with 2 outs and Reddick up vs. Machete on and Yordan up and so on, but I do think we get overly emotional about GIDP without considering the big picture.

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Mr.Bond said:

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12law said:

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Mr.Bond said:

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Trade him in the offseason.

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Much of Cleveland thought the exact same thing about Brantley. Good player, but too injury prone. I have a feeling that Correa is going to go somewhere else and put up big numbers -- just like Brantley.

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That's fine. He's not doing it here so let's get some value for him

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Farmer1906 said:

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Mr.Bond said:

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Trade him in the offseason.

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Dumb. We have him under control for 2 more years.

I don't fault any player who wants to reach free agency and get the most money they can.

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Farmer1906 said:

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Mr.Bond said:

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Trade him in the offseason.

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Dumb. We have him under control for 2 more years.

I don't fault any player who wants to reach free agency and get the most money they can.

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Farmer1906 said:

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Mr.Bond said:

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12law said:

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Mr.Bond said:

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Trade him in the offseason.

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Much of Cleveland thought the exact same thing about Brantley. Good player, but too injury prone. I have a feeling that Correa is going to go somewhere else and put up big numbers -- just like Brantley.

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That's fine. He's not doing it here so let's get some value for him

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He's been the best hitting SS over the last 3 years. He's doing it when he's healthy . As long as he does it in Oct then we can survive only getting him for 100 games a year.

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Quote:

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8. 'Thou shalt not steal' is now a baseball term

A mere 10 years ago, Jacoby Ellsbury stole 70 bases for the Red Sox in one season. This year, the whole Red Sox team won't steal 70. Heck, there's a good chance half the teams in baseball won't get to 70. And that's no aberration. That's an official trend.

This sport is on pace for its fewest stolen bases since 1971. But even that's misleading. This is going to be the fewest stolen-base attempts since 1964. The average team now attempts four stolen bases a week. Unless you're a track star with superior sprint speed on the Statcast spreadsheets, you're not going anywhere.

"Maury Wills was stealing 100 bases in the '60s," one AL exec said. "But he was pretty close to the only one doing it. And back then, it wasn't like there was a really dangerous hitter coming up in every spot in the lineup, one through nine. But that's where we are now. So why would you steal? The math doesn't add up."

And what is that math? Thanks for asking. Nearly twice as many runs score on home runs now (45.3 percent) as on singles (23.3 percent). So according to STATS, it's never been less likely, at any point in history, that your team is going to drive in a run with a single.

"There just aren't a lot of singles, period," one NL exec said. "So (when you steal now), you're risking a lot just to advance one base. With home runs up and strikeouts up, (stealing a base) makes less sense than ever."

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W said:

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Arbitration raise might be another $2 or $3 MM

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bearkatag15 said:

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Progress

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