***** Official Houston Astros 2019 Season Thread *****

3,736,542 Views | 74451 Replies | Last: 22 days ago by PSully97
Marvin
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BigPuma said:

Harry Dunne said:

the last of the bohemians said:

Which begs the question, ... is base stealing the new money ball? More precise, walks + stolen bases could be undervalued players
The problem with stealing bases now with the HR surge is that you're risking an out when anyone in the lineup can go yard. It's not like sending a guy in the Dome era with Craig Reynolds batting and Terry Puhl on deck.

We could send out a full lineup of 20+ HR guys along with Reddick who once hit 30.
I read an article on the Athletic the other day that basically boiled the math down to a team has to have 3 successful steals for every caught stealing to see a positive benefit. Otherwise a team is just wasting outs.

Unless your team leads the league in GIDP, where the risk is more "frying pan / fire" scenario. Putting the runner in motion at the least can help avoid a second out.
MuckRaker96
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Safe at Home said:

The home run comparison between this year's Astros and the 1979 team made me check on stolen bases. This season the Astros have stolen 51 bases with Jake in the lead with 10. In '79, seven players had more than 10 steals and the club total was 190. I'll bet just about any team you picked would show similar numbers. Just shows how much the game has changed.
There were only 3 teams under 100 HR that year in the NL. Astros were dead last with 49, Mets hit 74, Padres hit 93. The league average was 119, so the Astros were more than 100% lower that the average.
Dodgers had 183 - almost 4x as many as Houston.

Astros did lead the league in SB with 190, but the Pirates were right behind them with 140, and all but one team in the league stole at least 98.

The Astros just sucked at the long ball that year.
agproducer
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Well, *****

Ag_07
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Damn

So neither of the guys we got for Fisher are gonna be of any help this year.
agproducer
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Ag_07 said:

Damn

So neither of the guys we got for Fisher are gonna be of any help this year.
I'm really disappointed in Biagini's performance.

I thought Sanchez would really be able to help this team.

But, minus Pressley, McHugh and Peacock with Osuna and Devo struggling -- I have major, major concerns about the bullpen in the postseason.
EastCoastAgNc
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Frok
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This team just can't stay healthy
Ag_07
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Eh...McHugh and Peacock have sucked all year long. They've been awful and have been HUGE disappointments this year. Sucks for Collin being a FA year after such a studly year last year.

Pressly will be back, James is back, Harris is solid. Smith has been reliable. We need Osuna to find his groove.

Overall not too terribly concerned but yeah Biagini has been a let down and while Sanchez was generally a project I was hoping he could insert into the BP for the playoffs and be a contributor.
bearkatag15
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Ag_07 said:


Pressly will be back, James is back, Harris is solid. Smith has been reliable. We need Osuna to find his groove.


Who is the long relief guy if Miley has another 85-95 pitch 3 inning outing in the playoffs?

James?
Harry Dunne
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Marvin said:

BigPuma said:

Harry Dunne said:

the last of the bohemians said:

Which begs the question, ... is base stealing the new money ball? More precise, walks + stolen bases could be undervalued players
The problem with stealing bases now with the HR surge is that you're risking an out when anyone in the lineup can go yard. It's not like sending a guy in the Dome era with Craig Reynolds batting and Terry Puhl on deck.

We could send out a full lineup of 20+ HR guys along with Reddick who once hit 30.
I read an article on the Athletic the other day that basically boiled the math down to a team has to have 3 successful steals for every caught stealing to see a positive benefit. Otherwise a team is just wasting outs.

Unless your team leads the league in GIDP, where the risk is more "frying pan / fire" scenario. Putting the runner in motion at the least can help avoid a second out.


Logically, all of our GIDP have happened with (at least) a man on 1st and less than 2 outs - we have had 1094 PAs under those circumstances.

  • In those PAs we have GIDP 126 times (11.5% of the time).
  • In those same PAs we have had 99 XBH (9% of the time). If the runner is fast enough to steal a base, let's assume he scores on these.
  • Plus 179 singles + 97 BB & HPB, so 276 times (25.2% of the time) the runner reached (at least) 2nd just by staying put.
  • Add those up, and in total there have been 375 times the runner scored or advanced (34.3% of the time).

Also relevant that we are leading the league in OBP and have struck out the least, probably giving us more opportunities to GIDP than anyone else has had...and that our top 2 GDIPers (by far with 17 each) are Altuve and Brantley.

Every situation is different and the above doesn't apply to Straw on 1st with 2 outs and Reddick up vs. Machete on and Yordan up and so on, but I do think we get overly emotional about GIDP without considering the big picture.
Ag_07
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bearkatag15 said:

Ag_07 said:


Pressly will be back, James is back, Harris is solid. Smith has been reliable. We need Osuna to find his groove.


Who is the long relief guy if Miley has another 85-95 pitch 3 inning outing in the playoffs?

James?

Everyone

Seriously though I would think one of the young arms like Framber is on the roster for this reason.

Hopefully if Miley is pitching we're up 2-1 or 3-0 and it's not a lose or go home situation.

Again if we won it all with the offense, rotation, and BP we had in 2017 then we're in good shape this year. It's unsettling yeah but not overly concerned.
bearkatag15
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Well if it wasn't obvious before, I think it is now crystal clear what Carlos is planning to do
mathguy86
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Adios muchacho.

Incredibly talented. More fragile than Venetian glass.
Marvin
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Harry Dunne said:

Marvin said:

BigPuma said:

Harry Dunne said:

the last of the bohemians said:

Which begs the question, ... is base stealing the new money ball? More precise, walks + stolen bases could be undervalued players
The problem with stealing bases now with the HR surge is that you're risking an out when anyone in the lineup can go yard. It's not like sending a guy in the Dome era with Craig Reynolds batting and Terry Puhl on deck.

We could send out a full lineup of 20+ HR guys along with Reddick who once hit 30.
I read an article on the Athletic the other day that basically boiled the math down to a team has to have 3 successful steals for every caught stealing to see a positive benefit. Otherwise a team is just wasting outs.

Unless your team leads the league in GIDP, where the risk is more "frying pan / fire" scenario. Putting the runner in motion at the least can help avoid a second out.


Logically, all of our GIDP have happened with (at least) a man on 1st and less than 2 outs - we have had 1094 PAs under those circumstances.

  • In those PAs we have GIDP 126 times (11.5% of the time).
  • In those same PAs we have had 99 XBH (9% of the time). If the runner is fast enough to steal a base, let's assume he scores on these.
  • Plus 179 singles + 97 BB & HPB, so 276 times (25.2% of the time) the runner reached (at least) 2nd just by staying put.
  • Add those up, and in total there have been 375 times the runner scored or advanced (34.3% of the time).

Also relevant that we are leading the league in OBP and have struck out the least, probably giving us more opportunities to GIDP than anyone else has had...and that our top 2 GDIPers (by far with 17 each) are Altuve and Brantley.

Every situation is different and the above doesn't apply to Straw on 1st with 2 outs and Reddick up vs. Machete on and Yordan up and so on, but I do think we get overly emotional about GIDP without considering the big picture.

Way too much math in there for me to sift through, plus I was just offering a lighthearted comment- as in, we complain about the double plays, so at least sending a runner avoids that for the most part, giving us something different to complain about...
Mr.Bond
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Trade him in the offseason.
I'm looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. I'm just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


H-Town 2017 WS Champions
12law
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Mr.Bond said:

Trade him in the offseason.
Much of Cleveland thought the exact same thing about Brantley. Good player, but too injury prone. I have a feeling that Correa is going to go somewhere else and put up big numbers -- just like Brantley.
Mr.Bond
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12law said:

Mr.Bond said:

Trade him in the offseason.
Much of Cleveland thought the exact same thing about Brantley. Good player, but too injury prone. I have a feeling that Correa is going to go somewhere else and put up big numbers -- just like Brantley.



That's fine. He's not doing it here so let's get some value for him
I'm looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. I'm just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


H-Town 2017 WS Champions
CFTXAG10
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Farmer1906
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Mr.Bond said:

Trade him in the offseason.
Dumb. We have him under control for 2 more years.

I don't fault any player who wants to reach free agency and get the most money they can.
Farmer1906
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Mr.Bond said:

12law said:

Mr.Bond said:

Trade him in the offseason.
Much of Cleveland thought the exact same thing about Brantley. Good player, but too injury prone. I have a feeling that Correa is going to go somewhere else and put up big numbers -- just like Brantley.



That's fine. He's not doing it here so let's get some value for him
He's been the best hitting SS over the last 3 years. He's doing it when he's healthy. As long as he does it in Oct then we can survive only getting him for 100 games a year.
Mr.Bond
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Farmer1906 said:

Mr.Bond said:

Trade him in the offseason.
Dumb. We have him under control for 2 more years.

I don't fault any player who wants to reach free agency and get the most money they can.



What's dumb is counting on a guy who can never stay healthy. Go get value while he somewhat still has value.


Carlos had potential to be extremely good. Unfortunately he's weak minded and has a frail body
I'm looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. I'm just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


H-Town 2017 WS Champions
bearkatag15
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Farmer1906 said:

Mr.Bond said:

Trade him in the offseason.
Dumb. We have him under control for 2 more years.

I don't fault any player who wants to reach free agency and get the most money they can.
Watch him magically play 150+ games 2 years from now in an contract year. Hope he does that and we win a ton of games because of it.
Mr.Bond
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Farmer1906 said:

Mr.Bond said:

12law said:

Mr.Bond said:

Trade him in the offseason.
Much of Cleveland thought the exact same thing about Brantley. Good player, but too injury prone. I have a feeling that Correa is going to go somewhere else and put up big numbers -- just like Brantley.



That's fine. He's not doing it here so let's get some value for him
He's been the best hitting SS over the last 3 years. He's doing it when he's healthy . As long as he does it in Oct then we can survive only getting him for 100 games a year.
I'm looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. I'm just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.


H-Town 2017 WS Champions
redline248
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Just a bit on the topic of steals, the following is from the Athletic a few days ago:
Quote:

8. 'Thou shalt not steal' is now a baseball term

A mere 10 years ago, Jacoby Ellsbury stole 70 bases for the Red Sox in one season. This year, the whole Red Sox team won't steal 70. Heck, there's a good chance half the teams in baseball won't get to 70. And that's no aberration. That's an official trend.

This sport is on pace for its fewest stolen bases since 1971. But even that's misleading. This is going to be the fewest stolen-base attempts since 1964. The average team now attempts four stolen bases a week. Unless you're a track star with superior sprint speed on the Statcast spreadsheets, you're not going anywhere.

"Maury Wills was stealing 100 bases in the '60s," one AL exec said. "But he was pretty close to the only one doing it. And back then, it wasn't like there was a really dangerous hitter coming up in every spot in the lineup, one through nine. But that's where we are now. So why would you steal? The math doesn't add up."

And what is that math? Thanks for asking. Nearly twice as many runs score on home runs now (45.3 percent) as on singles (23.3 percent). So according to STATS, it's never been less likely, at any point in history, that your team is going to drive in a run with a single.

"There just aren't a lot of singles, period," one NL exec said. "So (when you steal now), you're risking a lot just to advance one base. With home runs up and strikeouts up, (stealing a base) makes less sense than ever."
bearkatag15
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redline248
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My opinion on Correa:

If he's still cheap for 2 more years, you keep him for 2 more years and bet on him turning in a healthy, productive season. What are you gonna trade him for? A bunch of prospects that have a low chance of helping for the next 2 or 3 years? You're definitely not going to get anyone close to as good as him when he's healthy.

So the choice is, keep him and reap the benefit while he's in the lineup - and rely on a Diaz/Straw level player when he's not in the lineup, or ship him off for, at best, an average MLB hitter and some prospects and play every day with a Diaz/Straw level player.
W
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Tucker time indeed
W
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he needs to start a minimum of 3 games this weekend
W
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yes, as frustrating as Correa's injury history is...and it's plenty frustrating...he is cheap for an all-star caliber shortstop (when healthy).

made $5 MM this year. Arbitration raise might be another $2 or $3 MM
Ag_07
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W said:

Arbitration raise might be another $2 or $3 MM


F that!!

He better not get a raise in arbitration.
bearkatag15
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Progress
Bregxit
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bearkatag15 said:





Progress
Wasn't Peacock headed for surgery?
Marvin
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bearkatag15 said:



Progress


"Hopefully" before the end of the season?! Apparently I missed an update because I thought it was to be next week... jeez this kid cannot stay healthy.
Ag_07
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I want to excited about Peacock coming back but I can't. I have pretty low expectations for him.
Frok
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I think his back is messed up bad again. The club's wording and dealing with it is the exactly the same as last year.