third coast.. said:

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2 mornings in a row ruined by a ****ty score update

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Tripp Gibson's strike zone last night was absolutely brutal and had them down early in the count then swinging defensively. Then, when a hitter got ahead 2-0 or 3-0 he would automatically call anything close to the zone a strike. A ball is a ball, dipsh$t

I'll return to this thread after the bleeding stops. It's baseball in August.

We are still gonna win this MF.

It's ok guys, nobody expected JV to turn this around. We have a bunch of good starters. Tonight, to end the losing streak we will send out... (checks schedule)... Rogelio Armenteros.....?

iBrad said:

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Second guessing is part of being a fan. It will always be done and 99.9% of the time, it happens on decisions that don't work out. Like the saying says, hindsight is 20/20.

If Hinch had known we were playing four extra innings of baseball, I guarantee he makes a different call there. That's why you don't see us running for Yordan in the fifth inning. But you can't assume a 13-inning game. You manage the game to win it in regulation.

Hinch doesn't make many bad decisions. Most are analytically driven and increase the team's chance to win. Some may look bad in hindsight, but it's only because they didn't work out. Overall, his decision-making is pretty on point, even if we want him walking back to the hotel after losses.

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It was the 7th inning that Yordan got swapped

Last night... I mean what in the hell do the fans up watching a 1:30 am got to do to get a freaking hit with runners in scoring position?

Ehhh... this too shall pass. The team will return to dominate the next month soon.

Silent For Too Long said:

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He pulled Yordan in the 8th when we had a solid shot of putting up the go ahead run. If it works the DH never hits again.

The 2nd guessing on here is obnoxious. It was a smart move that most MLB managers make.

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the problem is that his subbing out has become an enormous risk vs. reward decision, because the dropoff from Yordan to the guys that replace him is near grand canyon-esque.

if there were a more talented option off the bench, it wouldn't feel like an "all-in" move by Hinch every time it happens.

btw...this gives flashbacks to the Cecil Cooper era when he would take out Carlos Lee or Berkman late in games for defense or pinch-running...knowing full well he had a shaky bullpen. Then the Astros would miss their bats once the opponent tied or took the lead

Removing Yordan from the DH position for a pinch runner was boneheaded. It put a big hole in the middle of the lineup. It isn't like there was a defensive benefit either.

Chuck Gay said:

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Removing Yordan from the DH position for a pinch runner was boneheaded. It put a big hole in the middle of the lineup. It isn't like there was a defensive benefit either.

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Very good point, we put in Marisnick and he couldn't even play in the OF

tjholley16 said:

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What's most frustrating about this stretch is the inconsistency. The last few games the offense has been amazing but the pitching sucked. Last night the pitching was great and the offense sucked.

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A week ago I said I was worried that we could pop up any day with a 0 run, 4 hit performance, and that our inconsistency seemingly all season at random ass times scares the crap out of me against teams like the Yankees.

I was told this was the greatest team ever and that sometimes it's just baseball.

Well I'm still worried about our offense completely and utterly disappearing, not because of some great pitching, but due to our own hitters getting quick or lazy with their approaches.

Chuck Gay said:

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Removing Yordan from the DH position for a pinch runner was boneheaded. It put a big hole in the middle of the lineup. It isn't like there was a defensive benefit either.

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It's not boneheaded, it's a tough situation and I don't know the numbers there but I do know the organization always makes the statistically sound choice even when average Joe TexAgs calls it boneheaded.

It's like a soft 18 vs a dealer 9 in blackjack. Most people will call you boneheaded for hitting on the soft 18 but the reality is that you'll win about 5% more hands than if you stand...which is not much but it's enough to choose that strategy (regardless of what your drunk buddies think).

That's fine if it makes you feel better to vent but AJ doesn't make boneheaded choices when it comes to probability.

I won't go so far as to say it's boneheaded...but there were 2 outs and the next guy up was sitting 0-fer with a bunch of pop fly outs. I'm not sure what the probability was on scoring from 2nd on a single, but statistically there was only a 30% chance of a hit.

Oh well, plenty of other empty ABs from 1, 2, 6, and 7 hitters to focus too much on one move

Harry Dunne said:

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Chuck Gay said:

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Removing Yordan from the DH position for a pinch runner was boneheaded. It put a big hole in the middle of the lineup. It isn't like there was a defensive benefit either.

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That's fine if it makes you feel better to vent but AJ doesn't make boneheaded choices when it comes to probability.

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So tell me what I'm missing on the probability. Correa is batting .235 with RISP and 2 out this year. Marisnick is a couple steps faster than Yordan. Those couple steps could matter if Correa get a hit but they might not depending on the hit. They would matter on some but not all singles and no extra base hits. Let's say, those steps would make a difference in 1 out of 4 hits.

.235 x .25 = .059
That means the pinch runner would make a difference in 1 out of 17 at bats.

Feel free to differ with me because I would appreciate understanding where I'm wrong. I don't think probabilities warrant pulling Yordan there.

At least this time he was optioned after a less than stellar appearance

Chuck Gay said:

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Harry Dunne said:

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Chuck Gay said:

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Removing Yordan from the DH position for a pinch runner was boneheaded. It put a big hole in the middle of the lineup. It isn't like there was a defensive benefit either.

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That's fine if it makes you feel better to vent but AJ doesn't make boneheaded choices when it comes to probability.

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So tell me what I'm missing on the probability. Correa is batting .235 with RISP and 2 out this year. Marisnick is a couple steps faster than Yordan. Those couple steps could matter if Correa get a hit but they might not depending on the hit. They would matter on some but not all singles and no extra base hits. Let's say, those steps would make a difference in 1 out of 4 hits.

.235 x .25 = .059
That means the pinch runner would make a difference in 1 out of 17 at bats.

Feel free to differ with me because I would appreciate understanding where I'm wrong. I don't think probabilities warrant pulling Yordan there.

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You're trying to make something very complicated very simple. You can't just consider Correa's RISP this season. What is his history against this pitcher? What is his RISP and BA in general over the last week or so? Who cares what he did in April, how is he doing now? He was on a tear coming into the game.

Then you have to consider IF you don't score and the game continues, how much of a dropoff you take with Diaz (who hit for Marisnick the next time the DH spot was up) vs. Alvarez? It's a dropoff, but it's not like Diaz is a zombie and Alvarez is an automatic HR. Yordan was 2-2 last night but he had cooled off over this past week and hasn't had a HR since his 3 HR rampage. His double last night was his first XBH since the 3 HR game. What is the probability Yordan strikes out 2x like Diaz did? Much lower, for sure, but...

There is also no way to know how much longer the game is going to go on. If AJ knows the DH spot is going to bat the next time up with 2 men on, he doesn't make the move...but of course if he knows the game is going into extras anyway it's a moot point because he doesn't pinch run Jake for Yordan. You could say Yordan has a 33ish % chance to get a hit and win it in the 10th, but again he had cooled off and maybe him being in the game changes the way they pitch to Brantley and Altuve...there's no way you can say that he would have batted in the 10th with 2 men on like Diaz did. Bottom line is it's very complicated.

I wouldn't call AJ a genius if the move worked out any more than I'd call him boneheaded that it didn't. What it comes down to is whether AJ (and the nerd probability squad) think that the move gives us a better chance to win and obviously they thought it did. In his interview AJ presented it like it was a no-brainer choice...and IDK that I agree with that, but they don't do a lot of thoughtless stuff.

Like I said, I don't know what the exact numbers are but I'm going to guess the front office nerds have something a lot more precise than "let's say it's 1 out of 4". I don't know that you're wrong and I certainly can't "prove" it...but I'm going to trust in the best analytics team in baseball more than some stats that have been cherrypicked and/or made up.

DP

speaking of Correa...need a big RISP game from him today. Singles & doubles will work just fine

I disagree. This isn't the first time AJ has done this same thing, and the last time I remember this happening, we ended up scoring and it worked out, but still didn't agree with the decision then nor last night. To me it comes across as one of those things managers do to try to leave their fingerprint on the game. I would have been fine with it if there was only one out, but two outs and it feels like you are just trying to get lucky.

For the most part I trust the Astros with all their analytics, but I would definetly like to see the breakdown of this one. Yordan isn't even slow. When Corrrea came up he was 10 for 31 over the last 10 games with 6 of those hits being xbh.

I hear you, but again I'm reading a lot of "comes across" and "feels" and I know that they are not using feelings or worried about fans opinions when they are making these choices. Because I don't have the numbers I can't prove my position, but based on the organizational values, I would bet this is more analytics based than preening or nuts flexing-based.

and to lighten things up a little, now available for $19.95...

lol. Just listened to Hinch's post game comment. "If we don't score on a single, I don't sleep tonight". That sounds a lot more "feels" than what most fans are saying.

Maybe you're right. I wish we could know what information he had in front of him when he made that choice.

I am really tired of this losing crap.

the Yankees (83-42) have won again

Altuve...please don't hit the ball on the ground

Altuve... please take first pitch!

Rocking my Astros hat in the San Diego airport as we head home today, listening to the guys on the radio

A's pitcher is throwing some nice pitches to hit.

need to cash in here

Get. Some. Runs