***** Official Houston Astros 2019 Season Thread *****

3,714,353 Views | 74430 Replies | Last: 8 days ago by TexasRebel
j_davis01
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and if my math is right if we were to win the series with JV on Friday, game 2 of WS is on Wednesday so we could still throw cole and jv 1&2
1872walker
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http://instagr.am/p/B3r8jZ5hj59
agproducer
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AG
Beat40 said:

agproducer said:

mathguy86 said:

Cromagnum said:

mathguy86 said:

bearkatag15 said:


Hinch just pushed his big pile of chips in the middle of the table. Lose those 2 and he is up against the wall in Game 6.


You gonna play bullpen games against Tanaka in game 4 instead? Too big of a risk.
I have said before that I would have done Greinke tomorrow and the Urkeeding game Friday and hold JV and Cole for the home games. Or at least wait on game 5 decision until after the game 4 answer.
I completely agree with you here.

Scenario 1: Greinke wins Game 4. You are up 3-1 in the series. You need a bullpen game at some point. Throw Urquidy and Peacock in Game 5. If you lose that, you are up 3-2, going home with JV and Cole for Games 6 and 7.

Scenario 2: Greinke loses game 4. To me, that is when you throw Verlander in Game 5. It makes Game 5 a must-win.

Worst case scenario: Greinke loses Game 4, then JV loses Game 5. Astros are down 3-2 coming home, but then have to throw Cole Game 6 on short rest in a must-win just to tie the series. Then, what do you have Game 7? A bullpen game with Greinke on 2 days rest and JV unavailable. That is a nightmare.

TL;DR - Hinch needs to save JV and Cole for games 6&7. We are up 2-1. We could come home trailing 3-2. The Yankees can't win the series in NY. they have to come back to MMP. I'd rather have my two best pitchers available, on full rest, for the two biggest games. One of the games in NY needs to be a bullpen game.

My question to the bolded: If you're in a position to clinch in a game 5, and JV is nearly fully rested, why wouldn't you go for the kill?

You get the kill, you don't need a bullpen game.


I see that reasoning as well. But what if JV loses that game 5? The Astros would have to additional shots at the series win with a bullpen game and Cole.

If it came down to having to win 1 out of 2, I'd like my chances a lot better with JV and Cole back to back.
cpsencik04
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Didnt say I was making a decision for that reason just stated it would be really nice to get that....I only save JV if ZG gets the W in 4. If we go to 2-2 then I absolutely throw JV in game 5....if we win that game then I save Cole for game 7
gigemJTH12
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its all based on youre assuming JV has a better shot at home than away.

neither are for sure wins. but home is likely(based on odds) more of a for sure.
Average Joe
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The biggest factor in all of this doesn't have to do with our pitching at all. It has everything to do with our hitting vs Tanaka. If our hitters get to Tanaka and knock him out early, then the rest looks bleak for them. The yanks fully expected to have a BP game today and still have a day of rest. Knocking out Tanaka early makes it a (mostly) BP game with potentially 3 more games straight.
Teddy Perkins
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Easy decision.
Charlie Conway
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after all the videos of the other yankee fans, that guy is actually refreshing, he just wants to cheer for his team!
Teddy Perkins
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exp
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We've already seen once this postseason how short rest can compromise our deadliest weapons. It's bizarre to me y'all would consider throwing Cole on short rest in game 6 under any scenario at this point.

If you're down 3-2 after ZG and JV losses, you have to win 2 games no matter what. So your formula has to be win 2 games. Option A is short rest Ace + BP day. Option B is BP day + full rest Ace. In either scenario you have to win both, but in option B you have stronger weapons.
Charlie Conway
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exp said:

We've already seen once this postseason how short rest can compromise our deadliest weapons. It's bizarre to me y'all would consider throwing Cole on short rest in game 6 under any scenario at this point.

If you're down 3-2 after ZG and JV losses, you have to win 2 games no matter what. So your formula has to be win 2 games. Option A is short rest Ace + BP day. Option B is BP day + full rest Ace. In either scenario you have to win both, but in option B you have stronger weapons.
this is 100% wrong, you have to start Cole if you're down 2-3. Could you imagine if the Astros are eliminated and the best pitcher in the league is sitting on the bench.
Frok
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Bottom line is that by moving Greinke and Cole up a game now they have to win another game in New York. You can't come back down 3-2 and be forced to start Urquidy in an elimination game.
Harry Stone
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agproducer said:

Beat40 said:

agproducer said:

mathguy86 said:

Cromagnum said:

mathguy86 said:

bearkatag15 said:


Hinch just pushed his big pile of chips in the middle of the table. Lose those 2 and he is up against the wall in Game 6.


You gonna play bullpen games against Tanaka in game 4 instead? Too big of a risk.
I have said before that I would have done Greinke tomorrow and the Urkeeding game Friday and hold JV and Cole for the home games. Or at least wait on game 5 decision until after the game 4 answer.
I completely agree with you here.

Scenario 1: Greinke wins Game 4. You are up 3-1 in the series. You need a bullpen game at some point. Throw Urquidy and Peacock in Game 5. If you lose that, you are up 3-2, going home with JV and Cole for Games 6 and 7.

Scenario 2: Greinke loses game 4. To me, that is when you throw Verlander in Game 5. It makes Game 5 a must-win.

Worst case scenario: Greinke loses Game 4, then JV loses Game 5. Astros are down 3-2 coming home, but then have to throw Cole Game 6 on short rest in a must-win just to tie the series. Then, what do you have Game 7? A bullpen game with Greinke on 2 days rest and JV unavailable. That is a nightmare.

TL;DR - Hinch needs to save JV and Cole for games 6&7. We are up 2-1. We could come home trailing 3-2. The Yankees can't win the series in NY. they have to come back to MMP. I'd rather have my two best pitchers available, on full rest, for the two biggest games. One of the games in NY needs to be a bullpen game.

My question to the bolded: If you're in a position to clinch in a game 5, and JV is nearly fully rested, why wouldn't you go for the kill?

You get the kill, you don't need a bullpen game.


I see that reasoning as well. But what if JV loses that game 5? The Astros would have to additional shots at the series win with a bullpen game and Cole.

If it came down to having to win 1 out of 2, I'd like my chances a lot better with JV and Cole back to back.



i dont see any scenario where you start jv in game 6. if you do that, you screw the ws rotation. youre not gonna roll out jv on 4 days rest against that washington rotation, so you relegate a home game in the ws to a 'bullpen' game. you just lost homefield advantage for the astros.
Teddy Perkins
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If we lose tomorrow with Greinke could Hinch call an audible and fly Verlander home before Friday's game to rest for Game 6 and throw the bullpen game in Game 5. Maddog's worst case scenario for the Stros is dire - lose with Greinke and JV, throw Cole on short rest and then BP for game 7? Don't like that at all.
exp
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Charlie Conway said:

exp said:

We've already seen once this postseason how short rest can compromise our deadliest weapons. It's bizarre to me y'all would consider throwing Cole on short rest in game 6 under any scenario at this point.

If you're down 3-2 after ZG and JV losses, you have to win 2 games no matter what. So your formula has to be win 2 games. Option A is short rest Ace + BP day. Option B is BP day + full rest Ace. In either scenario you have to win both, but in option B you have stronger weapons.
this is 100% wrong, you have to start Cole if you're down 2-3. Could you imagine if the Astros are eliminated and the best pitcher in the league is sitting on the bench.


Why? What does that get you? You still have win a BP day in Game 7 and you have a lower win probability with your Ace in game 6. You can say it's wrong all you want but you haven't thus far presented a logical argument as to why.
astros4545
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Astros are +121 wit Him greinke tomorrow
David_Puddy
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Yankees are -130 for game 4 and looks like lots of early money coming in on them. I like it. The books will definitely need Astros to win game 4. Every betting donkey just assumes they're gonna tie it tomorrow.
aTm2004
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I think who goes out in game 5 will be determined by game 4's outcome. Just because AJ said who is starting 4 & 5 doesn't make it written in stone.
W
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this discussion reminds me of the Tigers, Jim Leyland, and Kenny Rogers in the 2006 world series.

Rogers was nearly unhittable in the 2006 postsesaon...and Leyland down in the series 3-1 to St. Louis had to decide whether or not to bring back Rogers (on regular rest due to a rainout) for Game 5 or hold him for Game 6.

Leyland held him for Game 6. One problem though...the series never made it to Game 6
WelchAg
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Teddy Perkins said:

If we lose tomorrow with Greinke could Hinch call an audible and fly Verlander home before Friday's game to rest for Game 6 and throw the bullpen game in Game 5. Maddog's worst case scenario for the Stros is dire - lose with Greinke and JV, throw Cole on short rest and then BP for game 7? Don't like that at all.
Some of ya'll are overthinking this way too hard. Pitching JV on full rest regardless of locale is the correct move.
exp
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Cole is basically an automatic win on full rest. You run him out there on short rest and all bets are off. It's stupid.
Teddy Perkins
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aTm2004 said:

I think who goes out in game 5 will be determined by game 4's outcome. Just because AJ said who is starting 4 & 5 doesn't make it written in stone.
I agree. With the announcement on who's starting, Hinch is just adding pressure to the Yanks to win tomorrow knowing he can change his starter if tomorrow doesn't result in a W.
tjholley16
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I'd go Grienke game 4, JV game 5, and Cole game 6 if we lose those two. Then all hands on deck for game 7. Similar to what we did in 2017 when JV went game 6
Harry Dunne
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exp said:

Charlie Conway said:

exp said:

We've already seen once this postseason how short rest can compromise our deadliest weapons. It's bizarre to me y'all would consider throwing Cole on short rest in game 6 under any scenario at this point.

If you're down 3-2 after ZG and JV losses, you have to win 2 games no matter what. So your formula has to be win 2 games. Option A is short rest Ace + BP day. Option B is BP day + full rest Ace. In either scenario you have to win both, but in option B you have stronger weapons.
this is 100% wrong, you have to start Cole if you're down 2-3. Could you imagine if the Astros are eliminated and the best pitcher in the league is sitting on the bench.


Why? What does that get you? You still have win a BP day in Game 7 and you have a lower win probability with your Ace in game 6. You can say it's wrong all you want but you haven't thus far presented a logical argument as to why.
Because it gets you to game 7.

What you're saying makes sense in a vacuum or on paper but it doesn't hold water where momentum and emotions are concerned. If we are down 3-2, it means we have lost two games in a row and are coming off a JV loss. You want to throw the bullpen out there to stop the bleeding? Not a smart move.

Cole can change the momentum and gets you to game 7 in MMP where we have a chance if the bats heat up and the pitchers can limit the damage.
exp
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The JV short rest thing made sense vs Tampa ONLY because we had Cole on full rest for Game 5 if needed. In the scenario of being down 3-2, there's NO ONE behind Cole for game 7. Save him for Game 7 or World Series Game 1. End of story IMO.

Greinke game 4 is a no brainier and JV in Game 5 is close to a no brainer.
bearkatag15
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I believe Dan Bellino is the home plate ump for the next game. JV and him have some history:

Forgiven_Ag
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God I am so home more nervous now after hearing JV pitching game 5 then when the ball from DIDI was in the air.

I AM FREAKING OUT
Harry Dunne
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exp said:

Cole is basically an automatic win on full rest. You run him out there on short rest and all bets are off. It's stupid.
You're making a lot of assumptions about Cole on short rest. You really think 24 hours of rest takes him from "all bets are off" to "automatic win"?
David_Puddy
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tjholley16 said:

I'd go Grienke game 4, JV game 5, and Cole game 6 if we lose those two. Then all hands on deck for game 7. Similar to what we did in 2017 when JV went game 6

Absolute no to Cole on short rest. Especially coming off of another 110+ pitch outing.
exp
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Emotional momentum is a valid argument. I'm just not convinced Cole would be effective enough to justify it.
tjholley16
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exp said:

The JV short rest thing made sense vs Tampa ONLY because we had Cole on full rest for Game 5 if needed. In the scenario of being down 3-2, there's NO ONE behind Cole for game 7. Save him for Game 7 or World Series Game 1. End of story IMO.

Greinke game 4 is a no brainier and JV in Game 5 is close to a no brainer.
and how would you feel if we were to lose game 6 and end our season with Cole on the bench?
fullback44
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Frok said:

Bottom line is that by moving Greinke and Cole up a game now they have to win another game in New York. You can't come back down 3-2 and be forced to start Urquidy in an elimination game.

If it comes down to a final elimination game on Tuesday, I would think it would go something like this...you would hope to finish it with Cole on Sunday

Thur Game 4: Grienke (5 days rest) or Uriguidy if Grienke runs into problems early
Fri Game 5: Verlander (5 days rest) we need to win this game at all cost

Sat - travel / off day

Sun Game 6: Cole (5 days rest)

Game 7: (throw out there the best you have)

Verlander 3 innings (3 days rest)
Grienke 2-3 innings (4 days rest)
Cole 1-2 innings (1 day) this may not work?
Harris 1-2 innings
Osuna 1-2 inning
Joe Smith 1 if needed

bottom line is if it comes down to a game 7 you put your best pitchers out their and try to manage it as best you can.... and tell your lineup to score some RUNS!
David_Puddy
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tjholley16 said:

exp said:

The JV short rest thing made sense vs Tampa ONLY because we had Cole on full rest for Game 5 if needed. In the scenario of being down 3-2, there's NO ONE behind Cole for game 7. Save him for Game 7 or World Series Game 1. End of story IMO.

Greinke game 4 is a no brainier and JV in Game 5 is close to a no brainer.
and how would you feel if we were to lose game 6 and end our season with Cole on the bench?

Not gonna win the series based on 1 pitcher. Both Greinke and JV are aces on 75% of MLB staffs.
Harry Dunne
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tjholley16 said:

exp said:

The JV short rest thing made sense vs Tampa ONLY because we had Cole on full rest for Game 5 if needed. In the scenario of being down 3-2, there's NO ONE behind Cole for game 7. Save him for Game 7 or World Series Game 1. End of story IMO.

Greinke game 4 is a no brainier and JV in Game 5 is close to a no brainer.
and how would you feel if we were to lose game 6 and end our season with Cole on the bench?
This is the main thing exp is missing.

Also however diminished Cole is on short rest, he's better than Urquidy/Peacock by a mile. By pitching Cole game 6 you are avoiding the worst possible outcome, which is Cole not getting to pitch at all.
8T2
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Every time someone mentions "World Series Game 1" when saying to save Cole, I know that this is a bad idea. If you are down 3-2, it's all hands on deck.