***** Official Houston Astros 2019 Season Thread *****

3,731,111 Views | 74431 Replies | Last: 5 days ago by PSully97
Farmer1906
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Harry Dunne said:

Farmer1906 said:

Harry Dunne said:

Deluxe said:

If you could back in time and do the Tucker for Realmuto trade knowing everything you know now, would you?


Hell yes. I like Chirinos, but Realmuto is better and cheap this year and the next.

It might be a few years before we know if it would have been a good trade for us and I hope that 3 years from now Tucker is an All-Star while Realmuto is in the twilight of his days as a productive catcher...but my personal opinion is that Tucker will probably be a productive major leaguer but not someone we are ever devastated to have traded (like a Kenny Lofton or Bobby Abreu)

How has that changed? Chirinos has been clearly better than Realmuto this year. Right now Realmuto is an average hitter. He'd be one of the worst in our line up.
You guys are smart baseball fans and especially those of you so into advanced analytics, you've got to stop making judgments based on 60 or 70 ABs! Chirinos has had a slightly better start to the season, but based on their ages and careers, it would be shocking if Realmuto was not the significantly better catcher over the next couple of years.

Chirinos is almost 35 and has been a platoon guy his whole career. Last year he played in a career-high 113 games. He's a .223 career hitter (1202 PAs - enough to show something) against RHP. Realmuto just turned 28 and is one of the best offensive catchers in baseball and very good defensively. He has been called the best baserunning catcher EVER.

I like Chirinos and think he was a great pickup, but let's be real.


So you're saying "what we know now" isn't too different from what we knew then because of how small the sample sizes are. Makes perfect sense.
Harry Dunne
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Yes I agree that we don't know much more than we did then.

I'm just saying:

1. Realmuto > Chirinos - fact.
2. I don't think we would regret trading Tucker for Realmuto - 100% subjective opinion.

Ag_07
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Harry Dunne said:

That's true, but would you make the trade?

Yeah probably. It's still a tough decision.

Chirinos has been good and I'm certainly happy with him right now but I still see him as a stop gap. And honestly I don't see anyone in this organization that is ready to fill that gap.
irish pete ag06
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redline248 said:

I'm a bit of an analytics noob...is OPS+ kind of like QBR?


Anytime you see a + stat, it's based on 100 being league average. Above or below is percentage points. So White is 17% better than league average.
Ag_07
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Quote:

So White is 17% better than league average.

At what?

Pounding cheeseburgers?
Farmer1906
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Bearcat has influenced y'all a little too much.
astros4545
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Best base running catcher ever?!?!?!

That may be worth half a run per year
ChAg1799
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I disagree... that means that those guys that have a less than a 50-50 chance of making it on a poor catcher run less on a guy like Realmuto...

It could save a run or more a month...plus like other have said, he is a much better hitter than the rest of the catchers in the league (over the last two years).
irish pete ag06
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Ag_07 said:

Quote:

So White is 17% better than league average.

At what?

Pounding cheeseburgers?


At OPS. Seriously.
Deluxe
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17% and rising!
Marvin
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Interesting article on The Athletic about when Alvarez might be called up. Goes over the known logjam of out-of-option players, but also touches on whether the Astros really NEED to do anything right now because of the offensive production. Suggestion is that Kemp will be the one to go as the incumbent, part-time, left-handed batting outfielder.

Might be a paywall column...

Puddin stayin put
Ags #1
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I think Kemp is the only one it makes sense to send down when the time comes. We are set on carrying 12 arms and white and kemp are both out of options and I think the FO values white more so that leaves kemp.
AgFan1999
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Kemp would make more sense to keep (in my opinion) as White is eating his way into a DH only role.
Marvin
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AgFan1999 said:

Kemp would make more sense to keep (in my opinion) as White is eating his way into a DH only role.

That would make for 6 outfielders. Don't see it.
AustinCountyAg
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Realmuto for Tucker all day everyday......above average catchers are hard to come by. above average outfielders are easier to come by (that is assuming Tucker will even pan out to be an above average OF)
Oyster DuPree
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Cheeseburgers
agproducer
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It's going to take an injury to get Alvarez to the majors at this point. White, Kemp and Jake (I think) are out of options. So, they can't be sent down. The Astros would have to trade one of them or risk losing them.

I'm intrigued by Alvarez with his power.

I like Tony, but I think he is expendable. He is what he is -- a good clubhouse guy, a decent hitter, but his fielding is somewhat suspect. I think we've had a large enough sample to know what he brings to the table.

Jake is a "glue" guy. He is the best defensive outfielder on the Astros. His bat is appearing to come around. I'd say he stays.

White is so streaky at the plate, but he is versatile defensively. He's a role player. I see Alvarez as an upgrade.

TLDR: Call up Alvarez, trade Kemp
W
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it's tough being in the Astros farm system right now --- especially at AAA. Not much upward mobility available at the moment.

Reddick's .360+ BA is probably demoralizing the Round Rock outfield
Ag_07
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Kemp is out of options as well so it's kiss him goodbye or leave him where he is.

I don't think they're gonna cut ties with Kemp just yet seeing as the offense is just fine. It'd be different if we struggling to score runs and not manufacturing offense.

As things stand now I think Kemp is safe and Yordan is aways off from his debut.
Harry Dunne
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astros4545 said:

Best base running catcher ever?!?!?!

That may be worth half a run per year
Most catchers run like White. Realmuto runs like Marisnick or Springer. If you watched the game last night, you saw how great base running was worth at least one run just in that game.
W
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checking in with the Angels (9-15)...

same problems as always...too much money to old ballplayers. Pujols is hitting .211; Cozart is hitting .109; Calhoun is hitting .179. Upton is hurt. That's almost $70 MM in payroll among those four
redline248
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How long was Trout's contract, and how old is he today? Do offices overpay/over guarantee years in order to keep a guy in his prime years?
astros4545
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When is the last time the Angels had a starting pitcher anyone feared?


Jered Weaver for like one year in 2011 maybe?
Farmer1906
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redline248 said:

How long was Trout's contract, and how old is he today? Do offices overpay/over guarantee years in order to keep a guy in his prime years?
Trout is by far the best player in baseball. I think he's underpaid.

In general, most teams give too many years and get stuck on the back end of contracts. But that trend is going away more and more unless you are a super superstar.
Farmer1906
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astros4545 said:

When is the last time the Angels had a starting pitcher anyone feared?


Jered Weaver for like one year in 2011 maybe?
Ohtani last year.
Ag_07
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I know it's a crap ton of money they gave Trout (he's worth every penny) but I don't understand why he stayed there.

He could've got that money from any number of teams who could also field some better teams and get pieces around him. Hell he could've gone to a team that already had pieces.

Angels just never seem to have a clear plan and end up just existing in mediocrity year in and year out. I don't see that changing anytime soon.
Marvin
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Farmer1906 said:

astros4545 said:

When is the last time the Angels had a starting pitcher anyone feared?


Jered Weaver for like one year in 2011 maybe?
Ohtani last year.

Not sure 51 innings over 10 starts would qualify for being on the "feared" list. Might well have been on the way, though. His last few starts were pretty strong.
Harry Dunne
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Brewers just signed Gio Gonzalez for $2M - he's no worse than Miley - would have been interesting to take a chance on him.
Farmer1906
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Do we care about a chance of a small improvement? Come Sept I don't want Miley or Gio pitching in any critical role. I want JV, Cole, McHugh, Whitley (I'm guessing), Pressly, and Osuna taking up all the innings that matter the most.
Harry Dunne
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We may never see a year again where everybody makes their turn in the rotation until September like last year, and right now we are one injury away from Framber and he's not looking so hot.

Also I hope they were fluke bad games, but the way guys of been pitching this past week doesn't inspire confidence that we are set for SP.

I know we have talented arms on the farm, but no one proven & for $2M, it couldn't hurt.

Ag_07
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Harry Dunne said:

for $2M, it couldn't hurt.

Unless it doesn't get you an improvement then your wasting $2M. I'm fine on passing on Gio.

However, I don't think they're set a SP either as I think Luhnow will make a move for one at some time this year.

Whether it be one of the Indians guys, Stroman, or MadBum. I think he'll have something up his sleeve and with the logjam we're having on the farm something has to give.
bearkatag15
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Ag_07 said:

Harry Dunne said:

for $2M, it couldn't hurt.

Unless it doesn't get you an improvement then your wasting $2M. I'm fine on passing on Gio.

However, I don't think they're set a SP either as I think Luhnow will make a move for one at some time this year.

Whether it be one of the Indians guys, Stroman, or MadBum. I think he'll have something up his sleeve and with the logjam we're having on the farm something has to give.
I'm big time team Stroman as a add on to this rotation. He has 1 more year of arbitration next year and doesn't hit free agency until 2021.
Ag_07
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Yes. I've been on that train for a couple years.

Imagine a playoff rotation of JV, Cole, Stroman with McHugh and Peacock in the pen with Rondon, Pressley, and Osuna

Imagine a 2020 rotation of JV, LMJ, Stroman, Whitley, Peacock.
. . .
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Johnsy3
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Stroman. It's in his name guys.