***** Official Houston Astros 2019 Season Thread *****

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Deluxe
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Harry Dunne said:

Hulla Baller said:

So is Tucker > Reddick after last night?
Tucker has more talent and a brighter future, but we'll see who shows up in October. Like with Beltran and nearly the entire bullpen in '17, if Reddick doesn't come out hot he will get sat pretty quickly.
This is a reasonable take
Marvin
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I hate West Coast games. That's all I got this morning...
redline248
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Hinched /sarcasm
Safe at Home
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Philip J Fry said:

Give me a break with this Hinched Bull***** He put Springer in with the bases loaded and 1 out. Springer didn't get it done. He gambled with his best ace in the hole and lost an almost meaningless game.
I agree, I know I'm not qualified to criticize his game decisions. But can someone explain this - twice Toro came up with runners on first and second with no outs. Both times he swung away and both times hit into taylor made double plays (the Angels muffed the second one). Why didn't he bunt to get a guy to third with one out? I know what analytics says about bunting but when you have a Mendoza at the plate don't you get to use common sense sometimes?
CFTXAG10
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****


Philip J Fry
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CFTXAG10 said:

Prosperdick said:

We basically gave that game away when AJ turned in the lineup card and we STILL almost won.
This. I know the Angels are missing guys too, but we still put up a fight with Tucker's solo shot and Super Jack's 2 run blast. Pitching was pretty good too, especially from the bullpen.

Also, I would love home field throughout, but I think it matters way more in the ALDS and ALCS than the WS for this club.


Not when you look at our road record vs home.
Ag_07
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I think it's the opposite.

The more games we have with Yordan at DH the better. Especially since he's so-so in the field.

He's in there all games of the first 2 series regardless. The WS is where that gets to be an issue and the exttra games with him will help.
rausr
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While it would be fun to kick back for the last weekend of the regular season,
in a way I don't mind that these games matter - I like that it will help us keep our edge.
Teddy Perkins
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The book's perspective on Mattress Mack trying to get $10M down on the Stros to hedge his free furniture promo.

CFTXAG10
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Ag_07 said:

I think it's the opposite.

The more games we have with Yordan at DH the better. Especially since he's so-so in the field.

He's in there all games of the first 2 series regardless. The WS is where that gets to be an issue and the exttra games with him will help.
This brings up an interesting question too. All hypothetical of course, but say Yordan is killing it in the first two series of the postseason. Would Hinch consider playing him on the road in the WS in left field? Or is he strictly a pinch hitter?
Wabs
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CFTXAG10 said:

Ag_07 said:

I think it's the opposite.

The more games we have with Yordan at DH the better. Especially since he's so-so in the field.

He's in there all games of the first 2 series regardless. The WS is where that gets to be an issue and the exttra games with him will help.
This brings up an interesting question too. All hypothetical of course, but say Yordan is killing it in the first two series of the postseason. Would Hinch consider playing him on the road in the WS in left field? Or is he strictly a pinch hitter?
I think he'd certainly consider it - obviously depends on pitching matchups and how the other Astros are hitting at that particular time.
Beat40
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Safe at Home said:

Philip J Fry said:

Give me a break with this Hinched Bull***** He put Springer in with the bases loaded and 1 out. Springer didn't get it done. He gambled with his best ace in the hole and lost an almost meaningless game.
I agree, I know I'm not qualified to criticize his game decisions. But can someone explain this - twice Toro came up with runners on first and second with no outs. Both times he swung away and both times hit into taylor made double plays (the Angels muffed the second one). Why didn't he bunt to get a guy to third with one out? I know what analytics says about bunting but when you have a Mendoza at the plate don't you get to use common sense sometimes?
How good is Toro at bunting?

If he's not good at it, what do you propose to do in that situation?
Beat40
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Someone correct me if I'm wrong here:

If we win tonight, we lock up AL home field.

If we win and the Dodgers lose, we lock up home field throughout.

Is this correct? If so, the possibility is out there we lock up everything tonight.
Bregxit
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Safe at Home said:

Philip J Fry said:

Give me a break with this Hinched Bull***** He put Springer in with the bases loaded and 1 out. Springer didn't get it done. He gambled with his best ace in the hole and lost an almost meaningless game.
I agree, I know I'm not qualified to criticize his game decisions. But can someone explain this - twice Toro came up with runners on first and second with no outs. Both times he swung away and both times hit into taylor made double plays (the Angels muffed the second one). Why didn't he bunt to get a guy to third with one out? I know what analytics says about bunting but when you have a Mendoza at the plate don't you get to use common sense sometimes?


First off, Toro is hitting .260 as a lefty. Not great, not Mendoza.

With that in mind, my best guess last night is AJ didn't have faith that Stubbs could get it done even if Toro got them moved over. Better to give Toro a crack at getting a hit and driving one in than hoping Stubbs (who is totally Mendoza level) accidentally gets a knock or fly ball (which he didn't come close to doing either time).
Marvin
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Beat40 said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here:

If we win tonight, we lock up AL home field.

If we win and the Dodgers lose, we lock up home field throughout.

Is this correct? If so, the possibility is out there we lock up everything tonight.

This is my understanding as well.
Wabs
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Beat40 said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here:

If we win tonight, we lock up AL home field.

If we win and the Dodgers lose, we lock up home field throughout.

Is this correct? If so, the possibility is out there we lock up everything tonight.
AgFan1999
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that's the way I understand it, because then the best the Dodgers can do is tie and the Astros own the tiebreaker.
Ag_07
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CFTXAG10 said:

Ag_07 said:

I think it's the opposite.

The more games we have with Yordan at DH the better. Especially since he's so-so in the field.

He's in there all games of the first 2 series regardless. The WS is where that gets to be an issue and the exttra games with him will help.
This brings up an interesting question too. All hypothetical of course, but say Yordan is killing it in the first two series of the postseason. Would Hinch consider playing him on the road in the WS in left field? Or is he strictly a pinch hitter?

My first thought is you do whatever you need to do to get his bat in the lineup.

Then I think about how. Does he play LF and Brantley sits out? Does he play 1B (which he's never done), Yuli play 3B, Bregs play SS?

Maybe he doesn't play him, but you don't want to play the first 2 one the road without Yordan.
Bregxit
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Beat40 said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here:

If we win tonight, we lock up AL home field.

If we win and the Dodgers lose, we lock up home field throughout.

Is this correct? If so, the possibility is out there we lock up everything tonight.


Yep. Magic numbers...

1 - AL home field (Astros win or Yankees loss)
2 - WS home field (Astros wins or Dodgers losses)
bearkatag15
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Teddy Perkins said:

The book's perspective on Mattress Mack trying to get $10M down on the Stros to hedge his free furniture promo.


Thanks for sharing this. Very interesting stuff. I wish I could do that prop bet they were talking about halfway through. Astros, Yankees and Dodgers vs the Field to win the world series at -200. I'd do that in a heartbeat.
willie wonka
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Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.
Beat40
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Bregxit said:

Beat40 said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here:

If we win tonight, we lock up AL home field.

If we win and the Dodgers lose, we lock up home field throughout.

Is this correct? If so, the possibility is out there we lock up everything tonight.


Yep. Magic numbers...

1 - AL home field (Astros win or Yankees loss)
2 - WS home field (Astros wins or Dodgers losses)
Man, it would be nice to lock everything up tonight.
Safe at Home
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Quote:

How good is Toro at bunting?

If he's not good at it, what do you propose to do in that situation?
I don't know. That's why I was asking about this instead of criticizing. I guess I just assumed that a light hitting infielder could not have made it to the major leagues without being a competent bunter. Has the game changed so much that that is no longer true?
Deluxe
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Ag_07 said:




My first thought is you do whatever you need to do to get his bat in the lineup.

Then I think about how. Does he play LF and Brantley sits out? Does he play 1B (which he's never done), Yuli play 3B, Bregs play SS?

Maybe he doesn't play him, but you don't want to play the first 2 one the road without Yordan.
It is interesting to think about and could be dependent on the series flow. Could even be dependent on the dynamics of that specific game. The following scenarios assume we have home field advantage:

Say we're up 2-0 and Greinke is pitching game 3. I would say go with the stock lineup of Brantley in LF and Reddick/Tucker in RF and let Greinke duel with the good defense behind him. Greinke can also hit so that makes up slightly for not having Yordan's bat in the lineup.

But say it's game 4, we're down 2-1 and we're starting Urquidy or JV on 3 days, I might be more inclined to throw our best offensive lineup out there and try to score some runs, which I think means Yordan in LF and Brantley in RF.
Ag_07
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The game has changed so much that the value of getting the guy to 2B doesn't outweigh giving them a free out.

Lot of ways to get that guy to 2B without giving up an out and I'm guessing the increased advantage of having him at 2B doesn't outweigh the value of that out.

It's same reasoning for not giving up a free runner via an IBB
Safe at Home
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Yeah but I wasn't talking about sacrificing to get a runner to 2nd. I get that. But in this case we're talking about getting a runner to 3rd with only one out.
Deluxe
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I didn't realize this but Greinke is slashing .280/.308/.580 (.888 OPS) this year in 50 ABs with 4 doubles and 3 dingers
Ag_07
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Oh then it's easy...He's already in scoring position so the likeliness he scores doesn't increase all that much.

I think at that point it's really not worth an out.

Just like you wouldn't try and steal third if you're already at second. Not worth the very slight bump in scoring probability.
Safe at Home
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So the chances of scoring a guy from third with one out isn't much better than scoring him from second? Is that what you're saying? I can see that if you're talking about there being two outs where you need a base hit. But that wasn't the situation.
astros4545
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All of this bunting/sacrificing talk is even more irrelevant when you consider we are the visiting team
Andyzipp
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Safe at Home said:

Quote:

How good is Toro at bunting?

If he's not good at it, what do you propose to do in that situation?
I don't know. That's why I was asking about this instead of criticizing. I guess I just assumed that a light hitting infielder could not have made it to the major leagues without being a competent bunter. Has the game changed so much that that is no longer true?
The AL leader in sacrifice bunts in 2019 is Leury Garcia with 10. No other player has more than 8.

In 1989 that number was 32. With a few dozen players in double figures, if I'm reading STATS correctly.
Ag_07
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Not just from 2B but form 2B with no outs.

And yeah the chances are better to score form 3B but not worth the value of the out your sacrificing.

It comes down to you're giving them a free out to move a guy that's already in scoring position.
dshedd41
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Martin Cash
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Bregxit said:

Beat40 said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here:

If we win tonight, we lock up AL home field.

If we win and the Dodgers lose, we lock up home field throughout.

Is this correct? If so, the possibility is out there we lock up everything tonight.


Yep. Magic numbers...

1 - AL home field (Astros win or Yankees loss)
2 - WS home field (Astros wins or Dodgers losses)
Maybe I missed it. What is the tie breaker if Stros and Dodgers end up with identical records?
mathguy86
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Martin Cash said:

Bregxit said:

Beat40 said:

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here:

If we win tonight, we lock up AL home field.

If we win and the Dodgers lose, we lock up home field throughout.

Is this correct? If so, the possibility is out there we lock up everything tonight.


Yep. Magic numbers...

1 - AL home field (Astros win or Yankees loss)
2 - WS home field (Astros wins or Dodgers losses)
Maybe I missed it. What is the tie breaker if Stros and Dodgers end up with identical records?
Division winning %. And we own it.