Need to find a way to rattle off 3 Ws in a row with Perez, Hamels and Darvish going the next 3. Until we make a move, we've got to find ways to win those matchups. Not sure if I can suffer through another Lohse start. Hopefully JD makes a move by then.

quote:

---

Back in the 90s it was known as Sele and Helling, then get ready for the shelling!

---

Unless they could make it to the 9th and then it was John Wetteland time!

quote:

---

quote:

---

Back in the 90s it was known as Sele and Helling, then get ready for the shelling!

---

Unless they could make it to the 9th and then it was John Wetteland time!

---

Which involved putting the runner in scoring position more times than not, people just remember him being dominant those first two years.

His last 2 years in Texas he was sporting a 1.40+ WHIP... As a closer.

AND... we still have a 4.5 Game lead in the division.
2nd Best record in the AL.

This team has looked terrible for about 3 weeks and still well positioned.

I know we are desperate for a SP, but, the longer we can hold off doing it, the better deal we'll get.

I posted the ERAs of some of the better options we are looking at, and while some are really good pitchers, they are struggling through a down season. Moore, Archer, Gray... all rebuilds who are struggling, and there is no guarantee they will turn it around.

quote:

---

AL
Tropeano (LAAA): 3.12 ERA, 1.462 WHIP <- Headed for TJ surgery.
Moore (TB): 4.33 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Odorizzi (TB): 4.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Archer (TB): 4.68 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Gray (Oak): 5.12 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
Santana (Minn): 4.12 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

NL:
Teheran (Atl): 2.96 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
Cashner (SD): 5.05 ERA, 1.478 WHIP
Corbin (DBacks): 5.25 ERA, 1.514 WHIP
De La Rosa (Col): 5.50 ERA, 1.573 WHIP

---

I didn't see Teheran pitch in the ASG, but some on here were very underwhelmed by what they saw. Add another 1.0 to his ERA moving from the NL to AL, and we are looking at a list of mostly guys with a ~5.00 ERA. And the asking price is your best prospects.

You are basically getting a Holland. Are they better than Lohse? Absolutely. Griffin? TBD.

But if we can hold off another week, or so... it could mean the difference between giving up Mendez\Ortiz\Profar\Gallo, or giving up a next tier guy, or some soon to be Rule V guys, like Brinson.

At this point, I'd be looking at bringing up one of the AA guys. Lohse at least got you to the 5th. That helped. But, bringing up a guy like Sadzeck or Ortiz or Payano, IMO, couldn't be terrible. Yeah, you'd lose an "Option" year, I suppose.

I'd like to see Austin Bibens-Dirkx make his MLB debut at 31.

Maybe you just go 3.0 IP with Lohse and platoon him with Ramos?!

quote:

---

4 straight outings where Tolly has given up a run credited to him. Where's that eXtra RP some of us want?

My fear at this point is that the grocery list is getting too long. This team has got to do about 80% of the turnaround on its own. Trades will only help woth that last 20%.

---

This. With the current trajectory, getting a couple of pieces isn't going to help much.

The team has a lot of deficiencies, also I think while we all loved seeing the record far outpace our pythagorean, we knew it was going to come back to earth (at least 0.500ish ball)... The injuries just caused it to crash even further.

Griffin is a #5 starter. NMart and ChiChi are AAAA guys. Lohse wasn't even cutting it at Round Rock. You roll those guys out there every 3rd/4th/5th day then you are going to slump.

If Yu stays healthy we still win this division... But if he or Cole has a DL stint then we are going to be battling for the wildcard.

While I think we've all wanted some kind of consistency at catcher, unless you think Chirinos has significant deficiencies defensively (including calling a game), then trading prospects for a 30-year old 126 OPS+ catcher at $10m/year when you've got a 112 OPS+ catcher at $1.5m/year just doesn't make sense to me. If it's lower-level guys then sure, pull the trigger. But catcher is just not anywhere close to the biggest need of this team... Maybe the front office has analytics showing that it's Chirinos/Wilson's pitch-calling that is causing Griffin/Lohse/NMart/ChiChi to suck, but I find that a hard pill to swallow.

Crossing your fingers on Prince and Moreland has to end. The team doesn't have enough pop at other positions (especially with Mazara struggling) to take automatic outs. The Prince bull**** should have ended two months ago, there was nothing about his swing that gave any hope that he was bouncing back. Since his neck issues he's lost his power and with his age he's lost some bat speed. Moreland is the same ole Moreland. You can wait around for him to bounce back, and he likely will. But in his career he's only had 2 extended seasons where he put up an OPS+ over 100 (106 in 2012, 116 last year). While the 80 he is sporting so far this year is pretty bad, it's not like the upside with Mitch is so breathtaking that you have to continue to roll with his lack of performance... I don't care how many times Busby says "you can tell by the way the ball is coming off the bat he is about to turn it around".

This team needs some life injected into it... If there's a time to shuffle the roster to spark something, then now is the time to do it:


DEMOTE Mazara to AAA - He has looked lost since the calendar flipped to June. If he's down in the minors for another 10 days or so you gain another year of team control. Perfect time to see if he can reset his stroke.

RECALL DeShields to MLB - Tearing it up in the minors. Probably still not a long-term solution but might as well give him a look. If his bat stay shot then his speed injects this team with a lot of options.

RELEASE/TRADE Moreland - Holding onto him for 2 months in hopes he will bounce back was something you could do up 10+ games. Not now. Moreland is likely worth at least a low level prospect or two, or you can package him in a bigger deal. You can also swap Fielder for Moreland in this scenario, I just think the market for Fielder is so non-existent that it's going to take an off-season negotiation to shed him from the roster. Dumping the guy who has 2 months left as a Ranger is easier than dumping a guy that has *holy-****-he-is-signed-forever-left* on his contract.

RECALL Gallo to MLB - He's been down long enough to earn another year of team control. He's not absolutely tearing it up in the minors, but at least he adds a long-ball threat in this lineup that the current 1B platoon is not. I'll risk a slight to his development if there's a chance he excels (eg. Mazara's call-up earlier this year).

SAFETY NET Fielder - If Gallo fails miserably, you can't just run him out there and ruin him, so you keep Fielder around to handle first base if that happens. No chance in ruining Prince.

TRADE one of Profar/Odor/Elvis for Matt Moore - Tampa needs position players, trade him one of our excess. IMO Elvis' contract is too tough to trade and he's too much of the "face" of this franchise so he is the doubtful chip. I love Odor, but his fielding deficiencies and more importantly his plate discipline simply does not project him to be a long-term stud. Moore gives a legitimate #3 starter with #2 upside. We're basically trading for a non-broken Derek Holland. Hamels/Darvish/Moore/Perez/Pick-A-Chump isn't going to strike fear in the league, but it's good enough to win the division and roll out in the playoffs, especially with the wildcards of real Derek Holland and Bionic Colby possibly coming back.

or

TRADE one of Profar/Elvis/Odor + The Farm for Chris Sale - Team control through 2019, same as Cole Hamels. Gives you an absolutely filthy #1-3 of Sale/Hamels/Darvish for 2016, and gives you some options when it comes time to try and re-sign Darvish. If (when IMO) Darvish walks, you still have a formidable 1-2 punch rather than just a 34 year old Cole Hamels and seemingly no "can't miss" pitching prospects on the horizon. Much of a pipe dream as I don't think Chicago is ready to trade "for the future" when they've gone from 73 wins to 76 wins to looking like 80ish wins the last 3 seasons, but with Miami playing well it seems like Sale is the only true stud with team control available(?) on the market.

At this point, Gray is the only person on your list that I would want for the price we would have to pay. I think the price of Matt Moore has gotten too high given his continued success over the past 3-4 starts. I don't understand why they haven't given Sadzeck the call. He's been on a role in Frisco.

quote:

---

You are basically getting a Holland. Are they better than Lohse? Absolutely. Griffin? TBD.

---

You tend to see a small sample size of 1 or 2 outings and you immediately over-value a player (at least when it comes to starters). Earlier in the year you were talking about AJ Griffin being an extremely valuable trade piece, now you're wondering if guys with high upside are a better option or not.

Since May 2nd, AJ Griffin has a 6.58 ERA. Averaging 4.1 IP per start.

There is absolutely no doubt guys like Moore, Archer, Gray, etc... are a better option than Griffin.

Zero doubt.

It's hard to refresh the computer screen in the morning and see another potential win turn into a loss

great post m_hayden. I'm in the camp that if we are going to trade Elvis/Odor/Profar it should be for a guarantee like Sale

Last two nights have been painful. Missed the chance to push lead back to 6.5 and buy some more time for trade

I believe chance that Yu resigns are less than 5% and the club knows that is trying to prepare accordingly.

Nice work

quote:

---

The team has a lot of deficiencies, also I think while we all loved seeing the record far outpace our pythagorean, we knew it was going to come back to earth (at least 0.500ish ball)... The injuries just caused it to crash even further.

Griffin is a #5 starter. NMart and ChiChi are AAAA guys. Lohse wasn't even cutting it at Round Rock. You roll those guys out there every 3rd/4th/5th day then you are going to slump.

If Yu stays healthy we still win this division... But if he or Cole has a DL stint then we are going to be battling for the wildcard.

While I think we've all wanted some kind of consistency at catcher, unless you think Chirinos has significant deficiencies defensively (including calling a game), then trading prospects for a 30-year old 126 OPS+ catcher at $10m/year when you've got a 112 OPS+ catcher at $1.5m/year just doesn't make sense to me. If it's lower-level guys then sure, pull the trigger. But catcher is just not anywhere close to the biggest need of this team... Maybe the front office has analytics showing that it's Chirinos/Wilson's pitch-calling that is causing Griffin/Lohse/NMart/ChiChi to suck, but I find that a hard pill to swallow.

Crossing your fingers on Prince and Moreland has to end. The team doesn't have enough pop at other positions (especially with Mazara struggling) to take automatic outs. The Prince bull**** should have ended two months ago, there was nothing about his swing that gave any hope that he was bouncing back. Since his neck issues he's lost his power and with his age he's lost some bat speed. Moreland is the same ole Moreland. You can wait around for him to bounce back, and he likely will. But in his career he's only had 2 extended seasons where he put up an OPS+ over 100 (106 in 2012, 116 last year). While the 80 he is sporting so far this year is pretty bad, it's not like the upside with Mitch is so breathtaking that you have to continue to roll with his lack of performance... I don't care how many times Busby says "you can tell by the way the ball is coming off the bat he is about to turn it around".

This team needs some life injected into it... If there's a time to shuffle the roster to spark something, then now is the time to do it:


DEMOTE Mazara to AAA - He has looked lost since the calendar flipped to June. If he's down in the minors for another 10 days or so you gain another year of team control. Perfect time to see if he can reset his stroke.

RECALL DeShields to MLB - Tearing it up in the minors. Probably still not a long-term solution but might as well give him a look. If his bat stay shot then his speed injects this team with a lot of options.

RELEASE/TRADE Moreland - Holding onto him for 2 months in hopes he will bounce back was something you could do up 10+ games. Not now. Moreland is likely worth at least a low level prospect or two, or you can package him in a bigger deal. You can also swap Fielder for Moreland in this scenario, I just think the market for Fielder is so non-existent that it's going to take an off-season negotiation to shed him from the roster. Dumping the guy who has 2 months left as a Ranger is easier than dumping a guy that has *holy-****-he-is-signed-forever-left* on his contract.

RECALL Gallo to MLB - He's been down long enough to earn another year of team control. He's not absolutely tearing it up in the minors, but at least he adds a long-ball threat in this lineup that the current 1B platoon is not. I'll risk a slight to his development if there's a chance he excels (eg. Mazara's call-up earlier this year).

SAFETY NET Fielder - If Gallo fails miserably, you can't just run him out there and ruin him, so you keep Fielder around to handle first base if that happens. No chance in ruining Prince.

TRADE one of Profar/Odor/Elvis for Matt Moore - Tampa needs position players, trade him one of our excess. IMO Elvis' contract is too tough to trade and he's too much of the "face" of this franchise so he is the doubtful chip. I love Odor, but his fielding deficiencies and more importantly his plate discipline simply does not project him to be a long-term stud. Moore gives a legitimate #3 starter with #2 upside. We're basically trading for a non-broken Derek Holland. Hamels/Darvish/Moore/Perez/Pick-A-Chump isn't going to strike fear in the league, but it's good enough to win the division and roll out in the playoffs, especially with the wildcards of real Derek Holland and Bionic Colby possibly coming back.

or

TRADE one of Profar/Elvis/Odor + The Farm for Chris Sale - Team control through 2019, same as Cole Hamels. Gives you an absolutely filthy #1-3 of Sale/Hamels/Darvish for 2016, and gives you some options when it comes time to try and re-sign Darvish. If (when IMO) Darvish walks, you still have a formidable 1-2 punch rather than just a 34 year old Cole Hamels and seemingly no "can't miss" pitching prospects on the horizon. Much of a pipe dream as I don't think Chicago is ready to trade "for the future" when they've gone from 73 wins to 76 wins to looking like 80ish wins the last 3 seasons, but with Miami playing well it seems like Sale is the only true stud with team control available(?) on the market.

---

I like much of what you propose, along with hiring you as special assistant to JD. You've come a long way with my mentorship and guidance. Well done.

Mazara gets sent down, he has to stay for 10 days, so you get your 10 days.

If Delino does well, it improves his trade value as a legit MLB OFer.

Gallo sinks or swims. If he does well, you take him off the market (or it increases his trade value). If he does poorly, teams might look for another prospect.

Thoughts on Fielder for Sabathia?! He has a vesting option for $25M for 2017. Even if he is a #5, you pay $25M instead of the $18M owed Fielder in 2017. The net difference of Fielder's salary of $18M for '18/'19/'20 is reduced by the $7M (from Sabbathia), which means NYY is paying $16M for each of the 3 years. Maybe you kick in some cash... or prospects...

NYY lose Teixeira and Beltran next year, and A-Rod after that.
Texas gets an expensive improvement over Lohse, and shortens the money owed to dead weight.

NYMets need some IF, like Moreland. I think anything you can get from a Moreland\Fielder and\or DeShields, could lessen the blow of players to get a legit SP, or could be included in a trade, in lieu of players currently in the Rangers minors.

I keep seeing people saying they expect Yu to walk when his contracts up, but haven't ever seen any reasons as to why? Sure, he may, but we've got as much chance and money to put up a fight.

quote:

---

I keep seeing people saying they expect Yu to walk when his contracts up, but haven't ever seen any reasons as to why? Sure, he may, but we've got as much chance and money to put up a fight.

---

Even if you ignore that Yu likely wants to be in the spotlight (which means a place like LA or NY).... name the last big time pitcher that came here in free agency...

Kevin Millwood... over a decade ago.

Before that, you probably have to go back another 15+ years to Nolan Ryan.

quote:

---

I keep seeing people saying they expect Yu to walk when his contracts up, but haven't ever seen any reasons as to why? Sure, he may, but we've got as much chance and money to put up a fight.

---

I have a feeling Yu will always have injury issues. Rangers may not want to sign him.

I have heard more than one person connected to Rangers say that Yu is somewhat of a prima donna and has to have the perfect conditions before he is happy such as 72 in a dome with no wind. Anytime he has a little injury he is out. I think a lot of pitchers might have pitched with the neck pain he had a few weeks ago especially with the team being so desperate.

He probably has his eyes on a big market anyway. All that being said, it seems like he has been a good teammate while here and he has never really said anything or complained

quote:

---

quote:

---

I keep seeing people saying they expect Yu to walk when his contracts up, but haven't ever seen any reasons as to why? Sure, he may, but we've got as much chance and money to put up a fight.

---

Even if you ignore that Yu likely wants to be in the spotlight (which means a place like LA or NY).... name the last big time pitcher that came here in free agency...

Kevin Millwood... over a decade ago.

Before that, you probably have to go back another 15+ years to Nolan Ryan.

---

Arlington will certainly be in the spotlight if the Rangers make it to/win the world series this year

Generally when a pitcher is coming off a surgery like Tommy John, you don't pitch through discomfort like you might otherwise.

I'm also pro-trading one of the middle infield for a legit#1/2 starter. Personally, i feel like alberto was a great platoon/backup for the infield to spell players here and there throughout the season. And you can run him out for a week if there is an injury

quote:

---

quote:

---

You are basically getting a Holland. Are they better than Lohse? Absolutely. Griffin? TBD.

---

You tend to see a small sample size of 1 or 2 outings and you immediately over-value a player (at least when it comes to starters). Earlier in the year you were talking about AJ Griffin being an extremely valuable trade piece, now you're wondering if guys with high upside are a better option or not.

Since May 2nd, AJ Griffin has a 6.58 ERA. Averaging 4.1 IP per start.

There is absolutely no doubt guys like Moore, Archer, Gray, etc... are a better option than Griffin.

Zero doubt.

---

I disagree.

AJ Griffin went on the DL. I thought Kershaw and Greinke would have a huge impact, but both went on the DL.

I believe he can be a long-term solution for the Rangers, with team control. However, we need someone who can eat innings NOW. I was just telling you yesterday, that AJ Griffin is a viable playoff starter for the Rangers. He may not get you 7-8 IP, and I've expressed his Gallardo equivalence in getting you 5 +/- Innings. He could still be a 2017 option.

I don't disagree that Moore, Archer & Gray can be better options... However, they haven't produced significantly better this season, and there is very little to suggest they are any better of an option than AJ. Especially for the price of trading prospects like Moore\Archer\Gray are a ToTR guy.

The asking price suggested for Archer or Gray is Gallo or Profar. If you trade Gallo or Profar, and you essentially get Holland back... IMO, that was a was trade.

Griffin has given up 5 ERs in his 1st 4 IP in his last 3 Games. 12 IP/5ER. That's a 3.75 ERA.

He hasn't pitched in like 2 years and clearly he should be limited either by PC or IP during the game... and for the season. If he can get you 4IP and 2.0 ER, it will be taxing on the bullpen, but cost you nothing, until he regains the strength... or we get something else. I think you would agree if we don't replace Lohse, we can't afford Griffin.

Moore, Archer and Gray help you over Lohse, clearly. If you fix the 5th spot, we can work around Griffin, to see if Colby can return, the market softens, or Griffin improves.

quote:

---

Moore, Archer & Gray can be better options... However, they haven't produced significantly better this season, and there is very little to suggest they are any better of an option than AJ.

---

If you think this is very little to suggest that Moore, Archer and Gray are better options than AJ Griffin then you have no business talking pitcher evals.

quote:

---

Generally when a pitcher is coming off a surgery like Tommy John, you don't pitch through discomfort like you might otherwise.

I'm also pro-trading one of the middle infield for a legit#1/2 starter. Personally, i feel like alberto was a great platoon/backup for the infield to spell players here and there throughout the season. And you can run him out for a week if there is an injury

---

In a WS game... NL park, double switch... you have two options to PH - Profar (3/6) or Alberto (0/1)

Alberto as a defensive replacement... fine. PH? Nah.

Personally, I would easily trade Gallo before I traded Profar. Gallo as a prospect is pretty much a gamble. If Gallo hits his ceiling, he's a power hitting machine, likely in the running for leading the league in HRs about ever season. His floor is a strikeout machine who just cannot hit major league pitching consistently enough to make it. If I could get Archer for Gallo and some lesser prospect, I would pull that trigger. I might be interested in throwing in Brinson. Gallo and Brinson straight up for Archer and maybe a bullpen guy. The reason the Rays don't want to get rid of him is Archer has SO much team control left on his contract.

Frankly, I wouldn't trade Profar for anyone outside of Chris Sale. I'm certainly not giving him to the A's for Sonny Gray. Gray is good, but Profar would haunt us.

For Matt Moore, I would give up Brinson and a lesser prospect. That's about it as far as SP goes with guys I would want. I don't want any NL guys unless they can come cheap with what you give up.

For a straight up trade for a relief pitcher, I don't think I would trade anyone but maybe Brinson. Kela was bad the other night, but I'm willing to give him more chances to prove that that was just an outlier. Tolleson gave up the homer yesterday, but to me this slump we're in has not been totally due to the bullpen's performance. Honestly once we get Deikman back, the bullpen has some good pieces. Bush, Kela, Deikman, and Dyson. Personally I would like to add one more guy, but if teams are asking for Profar or Gallo for a bullpen guy, to me that trade is not worth it.

quote:

---

quote:

---

Moore, Archer & Gray can be better options... However, they haven't produced significantly better this season, and there is very little to suggest they are any better of an option than AJ.

---

If you think this is very little to suggest that Moore, Archer and Gray are better options than AJ Griffin then you have no business talking pitcher evals.

---

Without context, that statement is absurd, I agree.

Yes, Moore, Archer & Gray have greater upside, have had greater historical success and will get you deeper into games and deeper into the season.

My point was in the results for innings they pitch. If you pitch AJ 3-4 IP/GS, his numbers could very well be as good as (ERA\WHIP) them. You would get 6+/- IP from them.

They have given you more IP this season, but ERA\WHIP are no better.

Also, TB is a pitcher friendly park:


Archer -
Home: 10 GS, 2.95 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Away: 10 GS, 6.28 ERA, 1.57 WHIP

Odorizzi -
Home: 11 GS, 3.82 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Away: 9 GS, 5.17 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Moore -
Home: 12 GS, 3.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP
Away: 7 GS, 5.93 ERA , 1.66 WHIP

You are looking at almost 2.0 ERA difference in splits.

quote:

---

the problem is, we don't have any room for Profar for at least the next couple years. He's better than a utility guy. He's an every day player, if healthy.

Here in the near future, JD is gonna have to make room for him with a trade or send him off to one of the 15 teams that wants him in exchange for some damn good prospects.

---

I agree... one of Andrus, Odor and Profar has to get traded to maximize the talent potential.

The key is, none has to be dealt today, or before the trade-deadline. Offseason is perfectly acceptable.

I anticipate Profar has the most value to bring back. He is a year older than Odor and one less year of team control.

Profar is a great Util guy, who can PH, play any position in the IF (except C) and is learning OF. He was a Pitcher, as well.

If we can trade him after the season, I love the idea of him being PH in a WS.

If we can wait another week to trade and can get a better deal and do not have to include Profar, I say wait, even if we have another Lohse start.

It seems like every trade opportunity the other team wants Profar.

If we wait until the offseason, teams that are contending now could be drawn in with prospects or young SP. The Dodgers come to mind.

They're talking about this on the Ticket right now

quote:

---

quote:

---

quote:

---

Moore, Archer & Gray can be better options... However, they haven't produced significantly better this season, and there is very little to suggest they are any better of an option than AJ.

---

If you think this is very little to suggest that Moore, Archer and Gray are better options than AJ Griffin then you have no business talking pitcher evals.

---

Without context, that statement is absurd, I agree.

Yes, Moore, Archer & Gray have greater upside, have had greater historical success and will get you deeper into games and deeper into the season.

My point was in the results for innings they pitch. If you pitch AJ 3-4 IP/GS, his numbers could very well be as good as (ERA\WHIP) them. You would get 6+/- IP from them.

They have given you more IP this season, but ERA\WHIP are no better.

---

Yeah, that whole needing a starting pitcher to go more than 3-4 innings pretty much invalidates your claim that there is little to suggest the others aren't better options.

If your starter can't go more than 4 innings then he isn't a good option.

quote:

---

The masses are gathered in JD's office right now

---

I walked by and there were no less than 12 people in there

quote:

---

The masses are gathered in JD's office right now

---

quote:

---

Yeah, that whole needing a starting pitcher to go more than 3-4 innings pretty much invalidates your claim that there is little to suggest the others aren't better options.

If your starter can't go more than 4 innings then he isn't a good option.

---