Backcountry Birds said:
The Spurs may not have that pure elite shooter but they have enough shooting that 1 or 2 tend to get hot on any given night. It's good enough that you have to defend the perimeter which opens up driving lanes and spreads the court. Plus the excellent rim pressure and ball movement lead to wide open shots that ticks up shooting percentage considerably for even average shooters.
Fans love offense but the Spurs ability to defend so well is what makes them elite. Alot of that is Wemby anchoring at an all-time great level, but it helps that there aren't many players that you have to hide on defense in a lineup that goes 10 deep. Ticking up 3 Pt% by a couple points at the expense of a worse defense is a losing proposition. You add Durant to this team and it gets worse as an example.
I think the Spurs movement and dedication to the extra pass in recent games creates so many open looks and the Spurs have improved as a team and individually by taking the open looks and not forcing the off the dribbles. Fox still takes WAY too many pull up 3s for me (19% of his shots) and he is only hitting 30% on them (while 18% of his shots are C&S threes and he hits 38% on those.) Outside that, I can't nitpick anything about the offense.
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Honestly, if we could do nothing but role this same team out for the next 5 years I think that's at least 2 championships. Just wish the salary cap allowed for us to keep them together long-term. There should be a homegrown talent exception like the MLE to keep homegrown talent. Will stink to see someone like Bryant/Castle/Harper who you watched develop from the start walk over money. Seeing Timmy, Manu and Parker grow up together and reach elite goals was an all-time fan joy. Hope we can duplicate that as much as possible with this squad.
My guess is still we trade Fox in summer 2028 for depth and keep the team together for the next 2 seasons after this year.
Before the 2028 draft we will likely see the expansion draft. I think Julian gets an extension and Keldon will get an extension. I can't see Barnes being a big part of this team beyond that. Typical expansion draft is you can protect up to 8 players and must leave at least 1 player unprotected. Assuming we keep Barnes 2 more years and give extensions to Keldon and Julian, our team will look like:
1. Wemby
2. Fox
3. Castle
4. Harper
5. Bryant
6. Keldon
7. Julian
8. 2026 1st round pick (Yaxel, Morez?)
9. 2027 1st round pick
10. Kornet.
I think we leave Kornet available. He will be 33 and have 1 year left on his contract and expansion teams don't generally build around old backup centers. If the NBA says you have to leave 2 players open, we will know that this summer, and we draft a 2nd round pick in 2027 and give them a 2y deal. It gets complicated with the two rookie deal players, but wouldn't be out of the question for the Spurs to move a 2027 pick from the Hawks for a 2028 pick that wouldn't be at risk for the expansion draft.
But then we also have the difficulty of 2028-29 being the year that Castle's extension hits. I think that is when we trade Fox after the expansion draft to rebuild depth and get picks. Fox will be 30, probably have a ring or two, and have 2y left on his contract. Spurs could also have the option of running it back one more year and just eating some hard luxury tax in the 28-29 season, but then in 29-30, Harper and Bryant's extensions kick and and I think Fox has to be gone by then. That's why I think Fox will be traded in 28 for depth and picks.
