**** Spurs vs Rockets - Round 2 **** [Staff Reply on OP]

97,582 Views | 936 Replies | Last: 7 yr ago by yawny06
SquirrellyDan
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Guitarsoup said:

Whatshisnuts said that if the Rockets aren't hitting the three, it's gonna be close.

No. If the Rockets aren't hitting the three, they are going to lose. Badly.
We shot 15% from three in the game that Mills hit the winner to win by 2. That's about as bad as we could possibly do and that's not losing "badly."

We also barely made 30% in the one game we did win.
tbirdspur2010
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primomosquito said:

Guitarsoup said:

Whatshisnuts said that if the Rockets aren't hitting the three, it's gonna be close.

No. If the Rockets aren't hitting the three, they are going to lose. Badly.
We shot 15% from three in the game that Mills hit the winner to win by 2. That's about as bad as we could possibly do and that's not losing "badly."


That game also featured some downright horrific late game execution, which is kind of a hallmark if Pringles' teams against Pop's in the postseason. Not to mention SA didn't exactly fill it up from the field that game either, iirc.
tbirdspur2010
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primomosquito said:


We also barely made 30% in the one game we did win.


Happens when you play the best 3 point defense in the league, tbh.

Y'all ain't gonna get the looks you're used to, and had better be damn efficient on the ones you do. Talking Golden State level execution. If y'all do that, I'll gladly tip my humble cap to impeccable play.
HossAg
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Guitarsoup said:

Whatshisnuts said that if the Rockets aren't hitting the three, it's gonna be close.

No. If the Rockets aren't hitting the three, they are going to lose. Badly.


I said if we're shooting 30% it'll be close. We shot 30% when we beat y'all and 15% in a two point loss. I don't think it's some wild thought to think that us shooting 30% will make for some close games. No, I'm not stupid enough to think that we'll win shooting 15% the entire time, but saying we're gonna get **** on every game if we shoot 30% is stupid.
SquirrellyDan
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HossAg said:

Guitarsoup said:

Whatshisnuts said that if the Rockets aren't hitting the three, it's gonna be close.

No. If the Rockets aren't hitting the three, they are going to lose. Badly.


I said if we're shooting 30% it'll be close. We shot 30% when we beat y'all and 15% in a two point loss. I don't think it's some wild thought to think that us shooting 30% will make for some close games. No, I'm not stupid enough to think that we'll win shooting 15% the entire time, but saying we're gonna get **** on every game if we shoot 30% is stupid.
Exactly. I think it's going to be an extremely close series regardless.
Guitarsoup
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I think Pop comes out and pounds it into TheMarcus against Capela right off the bat. If Capela is in foul trouble, the Rockets are in big trouble. That gives them Nene down low and he has minute limitations.

Hopefully, LMA found his ballsack.

Capela averaged 22mpg against the Spurs in the regular season and he had foul fouls in each game.

LMA didn't play exceptionally well against Houston, BUT he shot about twice as many FTs per game against Houston as he did per game for the season. Spurs were a negative +/- with him in the game, BUT we won 3 of 4 games.

Gasol played a much smaller role in the Houston games this year, but the Spurs were HUGELY positive when Gasol was in. Simmons also played great against Houston.
tbirdspur2010
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I expect Simmons to be good. He's from Houston and will want to show out.

Our bugs are going to feel like shackles have been removed not having to face Memphis' monster big men night in and night out. Nene has played great so far, but he's no Marc Gasol. Neither is Capela. I do expect Pop to test them inside early and often.

He's also going to try to force Harden to play the Westbrook role and have to do/facilitate everything on offense. Would like to see him attack Harden more on defense, though. We didn't do the best job of forcing the issue on guys in foul trouble in round 1.
Guitarsoup
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primomosquito said:

Guitarsoup said:

Whatshisnuts said that if the Rockets aren't hitting the three, it's gonna be close.

No. If the Rockets aren't hitting the three, they are going to lose. Badly.
We shot 15% from three in the game that Mills hit the winner to win by 2. That's about as bad as we could possibly do and that's not losing "badly."

We also barely made 30% in the one game we did win.


The Rockets shoot about 46% of their shots from three.

Do you think that the Rockets can beat a great defensive team in a 7-game series by hitting just 28% from three again?

Hitting 28% from three gives you .84 points per possession on 46% of your shots.

The Rockets scored 1.15 points per possession during the season. That's second in the NBA.

The 76ers scored 1.03 points per possession during the season for last in the NBA.

If the Rockets do that bad from three, they stands no chance against a good team. Do you really disagree with that?


Rockets were 4-12 when they shoot below 30% from three this year
SquirrellyDan
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Guitarsoup said:

primomosquito said:

Guitarsoup said:

Whatshisnuts said that if the Rockets aren't hitting the three, it's gonna be close.

No. If the Rockets aren't hitting the three, they are going to lose. Badly.
We shot 15% from three in the game that Mills hit the winner to win by 2. That's about as bad as we could possibly do and that's not losing "badly."

We also barely made 30% in the one game we did win.


The Rockets shoot about 46% of their shots from three.

Do you think that the Rockets can beat a great defensive team in a 7-game series by hitting just 28% from three again?

Hitting 28% from three gives you .84 points per possession on 46% of your shots.

The Rockets scored 1.15 points per possession during the season. That's second in the NBA.

The 76ers scored 1.03 points per possession during the season for last in the NBA.

If the Rockets do that bad from three, they stands no chance against a good team. Do you really disagree with that?

If the Rockets shoot less than 30% from three for an entire 7 game series, they would have trouble beating anybody. Like I said earlier, that's not game breaking analysis. Could they still win? Yes, as shown by the examples I mentioned earlier. That being said, we will get our shots. Do we make them? We'll see.
aggiejim70
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Guitarsoup said:

Btron said:

I'm curious after how many losses in this series will the Rockets fans blame the refs and say that league will never let them win because of some weird conspiracy theory?
Four, but they will also say they won a game in spite of the scoreboard.
FIFY
The person that is not willing to fight and die, if need be, for his country has no right to life.

James Earl Rudder '32
January 31, 1945
PascalsWager
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Opponent 3 pt percentage has been shown to be completely random. So it doesn't matter how good your or anyone's defense is. They shot 28% in the last series but are much better 3 pt shooters over a much larger sample size. They have to shoot MUCH better to get back to their mean.

They're due multiple good shooting games. Not good news for the Spurs.
Obi Wan Ginobili
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PascalsWager said:

Opponent 3 pt percentage has been shown to be completely random. So it doesn't matter how good your or anyone's defense is. They shot 28% in the last series but are much better 3 pt shooters over a much larger sample size. They have to shoot MUCH better to get back to their mean.

They're due multiple good shooting games. Not good news for the Spurs.


Aaahhhh, the ol' "we're due" after playing poorly.

I'm sure the Spurs are really scared now. Great analytics.
tbirdspur2010
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Obi Wan Ginobili said:

PascalsWager said:

Opponent 3 pt percentage has been shown to be completely random. So it doesn't matter how good your or anyone's defense is. They shot 28% in the last series but are much better 3 pt shooters over a much larger sample size. They have to shoot MUCH better to get back to their mean.

They're due multiple good shooting games. Not good news for the Spurs.


Aaahhhh, the ol' "we're due" after playing poorly.

I'm sure the Spurs are really scared now. Great analytics.
We're due to beat HOU in the playoffs. Long overdue, in fact.

I like this game.

....and if you, *ahem* stumble upon a couple of extra seats in the rafters.....ijs.......

Damn I hate being a poor sometimes lol.
Guitarsoup
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Being due definitely has measured statistical significance, I am sure.
Brian Earl Spilner
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I must be due to have sex tonight.
Guitarsoup
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http://www.poundingtherock.com/2017/4/30/15492072/nba-playoffs-spurs-stop-rockets-james-harden-pick-roll


Good article about the different ways to defend the Pick and Roll and the offensive counter for each one. With video.
tbirdspur2010
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

I must be due to have sex tonight.
Bruh, I'm just tryna get it in as often as I can before my son is born lol.
NickNaylor
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tbirdspur2010 said:

Brian Earl Spilner said:

I must be due to have sex tonight.
Bruh, I'm just tryna get it in as often as I can before my son is born lol.
Good plan. And play with those milk tiddies while you can because once that kid comes, they are probably going to be too sensitive and cracked to do much with them for a while.

Except admire. Holy **** milk tiddies are amazing.
tbirdspur2010
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I look forward to the aesthetics, at least.
aggie7911
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Much better and more relevant nationally hth

Hey i recognize the spares area good and have been for many a long time now ..

aggie7911
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demack06 said:

Btron said:

aggie7911 said:

The NBA gods made the Spares good because living in SA and being from there must be a beating.

Right...because the city of Houston is so awesome and badass.
It's such a garbage city. MUCH rather spend time in the DFW than that dump


The ranger spare fan. Lulz
TyHolden
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Austin - hippies
Dallas - yuppies
Houston - necks
San Antonio - cholos

That sums up our state pretty well. Go spurs!
cr0wbar
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Wow - 50+ replies on the ol' watchlist, turned into a circle jerk in here! #VaSpursVa

Seeing mostly Spurs -5.5

Game 1 Prediction: Rockets will lull the Spurs into a false sense of security by gifting them an early 13+ point lead (again, part of the strategy- see OKC) . Halftime will be Chuck talking about San Antonio's big women, Ernie will chastise him. They'll mention how poor Houston is in transition defense. Our shooters won't be shooting...Then BAM end of 3rd will be a 3 point Rockets advantage. 4th Q will be back and forth for 10 minutes. The losing team will probably post the two minute report and ***** until Wednesday.


Cappo
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aggie7911 said:

demack06 said:

Btron said:

aggie7911 said:

The NBA gods made the Spares good because living in SA and being from there must be a beating.

Right...because the city of Houston is so awesome and badass.
It's such a garbage city. MUCH rather spend time in the DFW than that dump


The ranger spare fan. Lulz
LOL that's all you got? Ranger smack talk on an NBA playoff thread?

Wow Houston really is insignificant in the big picture of the major sports spectrum
SquirrellyDan
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tbirdspur2010 said:

primomosquito said:


We also barely made 30% in the one game we did win.


Happens when you play the best 3 point defense in the league, tbh.

Y'all ain't gonna get the looks you're used to, and had better be damn efficient on the ones you do. Talking Golden State level execution. If y'all do that, I'll gladly tip my humble cap to impeccable play.
OKC was the best rebounding team in the NBA. We dominated them on the boards.

You guys defend the three well, but just because the stats say so doesn't mean you'll be able to affect us if we get hot, hand in the face or not. Lou Williams actually seems to shoot better with a hand in his face.
Btron
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DSAg44 said:

Austin - hippies
Dallas - yuppies
Houston - necks
San Antonio - cholos

That sums up our state pretty well. Go spurs!
Dallas thinks they're better than Houston
Houston thinks they're better than Dallas
San Antonio doesn't really care
And everyone knows Austin is the best in Texas
Brian Earl Spilner
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Ugh. These tipoffs are crap on the East Coast.
titanmaster_race
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Ugh. These tipoffs are crap on the East Coast.


FIFEveryone
Bonfired
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Brian Earl Spilner said:

Ugh. These tipoffs are crap on the East Coast.


My old CDT-residing self is going to have to nap for a bit this afternoon to make it to the end.

Now, if you'll excuse me...Luby's awaits.
tbirdspur2010
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primomosquito said:

tbirdspur2010 said:

primomosquito said:


We also barely made 30% in the one game we did win.


Happens when you play the best 3 point defense in the league, tbh.

Y'all ain't gonna get the looks you're used to, and had better be damn efficient on the ones you do. Talking Golden State level execution. If y'all do that, I'll gladly tip my humble cap to impeccable play.
OKC was the best rebounding team in the NBA. We dominated them on the boards.

You guys defend the three well, but just because the stats say so doesn't mean you'll be able to affect us if we get hot, hand in the face or not. Lou Williams actually seems to shoot better with a hand in his face.


Oh I absolutely agree on that point. Y'all going nova for a series worries me just like it did with D'Antoni's SSoL Suns squads. It's an ever-present danger given the sheer volume of threes y'all shoot.
Guitarsoup
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primomosquito said:

tbirdspur2010 said:

primomosquito said:


We also barely made 30% in the one game we did win.


Happens when you play the best 3 point defense in the league, tbh.

Y'all ain't gonna get the looks you're used to, and had better be damn efficient on the ones you do. Talking Golden State level execution. If y'all do that, I'll gladly tip my humble cap to impeccable play.
OKC was the best rebounding team in the NBA. We dominated them on the boards.

You guys defend the three well, but just because the stats say so doesn't mean you'll be able to affect us if we get hot, hand in the face or not. Lou Williams actually seems to shoot better with a hand in his face.
OKC had to go away from their big guys because Penes Kanter couldn't guard a 12 year old.

Spurs' method against DAntoni is to let the PnR get theirs, but to never leave the other guys. If Ariza, Ryno, Bev don't get good looks, it is hard to get them going. This particularly frustrated Shawn Marion back in the day.

Get those shooters frustrated and they start making mistakes. They tend to get lazier on D or make stupid fouls/turnovers.

That's why Nash and Amare had incredible series against the Spurs, but the Suns still lost in ~5 games.

I imagine this will happen in the Rockets series as well. Harden may average 35-40ppg. You may see some big games by Capela or Nene. But unless the shooters get hot, Harden putting on those great performances won't matter as much.
SquirrellyDan
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Guitarsoup said:

primomosquito said:

tbirdspur2010 said:

primomosquito said:


We also barely made 30% in the one game we did win.


Happens when you play the best 3 point defense in the league, tbh.

Y'all ain't gonna get the looks you're used to, and had better be damn efficient on the ones you do. Talking Golden State level execution. If y'all do that, I'll gladly tip my humble cap to impeccable play.
OKC was the best rebounding team in the NBA. We dominated them on the boards.

You guys defend the three well, but just because the stats say so doesn't mean you'll be able to affect us if we get hot, hand in the face or not. Lou Williams actually seems to shoot better with a hand in his face.
OKC had to go away from their big guys because Penes Kanter couldn't guard a 12 year old.

Spurs' method against DAntoni is to let the PnR get theirs, but to never leave the other guys. If Ariza, Ryno, Bev don't get good looks, it is hard to get them going. This particularly frustrated Shawn Marion back in the day.

Get those shooters frustrated and they start making mistakes. They tend to get lazier on D or make stupid fouls/turnovers.

That's why Nash and Amare had incredible series against the Spurs, but the Suns still lost in ~5 games.

I imagine this will happen in the Rockets series as well. Harden may average 35-40ppg. You may see some big games by Capela or Nene. But unless the shooters get hot, Harden putting on those great performances won't matter as much.
In other words, we made OKC change how they play. Thanks for the compliment.

You keep saying the same things....it's well established that the Rockets will have to shoot well to win the series. Go under picks, Harden has wide open threes. Crash on Harden when he blows by whoever is guarding him, either Ryno or Sweet Lou or E Gordon or Ariza or Beverly will have an open three. Obviously, if they're all cold we will have a tough time winning.
Guitarsoup
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Quote:

In other words, we made OKC change how they play. Thanks for the compliment.


Not quite what I said. I said Kanter is a bad defensive player, so he couldn't stay on the court. Has less to do with the Rockets than just how terrible Kanter is.



Quote:

You keep saying the same things....it's well established that the Rockets will have to shoot well to win the series. Go under picks, Harden has wide open threes.
I'm good with giving Harden wide open threes. .347 for the season and 24% for round 1. As long as Harden is shooting under 38% from three (a mark he has only topped in one season, back in OKC) his three point shooting is below the Rockets' season points per possessions mark. Spurs will likely dare him to jack threes.


Quote:


Crash on Harden when he blows by whoever is guarding him, either Ryno or Sweet Lou or E Gordon or Ariza or Beverly will have an open three. Obviously, if they're all cold we will have a tough time winning.
When the Spurs have two elite wing defenders, it is much more difficult to just blow past them. Spurs typically don't double off against a team like this to leave shooters open very often.
DBill
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Go Spurs Go!

Spurs take the series in 5.
TheDino
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I think the series is a coin flip. I'm picking Spurs in 7.

Go Spurs.
 
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