More than you probably.

And more to the point, I understand what I see. Now I've brought the facts to back up my points. If you've got anything to add, please make it more than "do you even watch any games."

Eh, never mind. Have fun thinking everyone is terrible and worthless.

Natasha knows a lot more about the Spurs than you do, that is plain just by reading your posts. You don't know our players strengths or injury problems. Your posts make it look like the first game you watched this year was against New Orleans three weeks ago.

Can't say I don't blame him.

Sure things, IMO:

Kawhi is a max player. He had an up and down finals, but I've got no problem betting on a guy with the skills he has shown, his physical tools, and most importantly his work ethic. That's 17mm.

Duncan returns. I mean, the guy dropped 27 and 11 in game 7 on the road and is still a top tier defender. Lets say he comes back for 8mm a year on a three year deal, even though a guy 10 years younger and playing at the same level would get a max deal.

Manu retires. He should have retired last year and I wish he had, for his own sake and for the 7mm we could have badly used to bring in some fresh blood. The spirit is willing, but the body is barely holding together.

As guitar said, TP, Splitter, Diaw, Mills, and Anderson are back for a total of 34mm.

That puts us at 59mm out of 67mm/81mm. The lineup is as follows:

PG: TP, Mills
SG:
SF: Kawhi
PF: Diaw
PF/C: Splitter, Duncan

I didn't include Anderson because while I think he can be an effective second unit offensive player, every 13th chair splinter picker in the league has made him look silly on the other end of the court. He's not someone I'm going to consider as part of the regular rotation until he proves it.

That leaves us short four players just to get a two-deep. More to come.

Controversial/long shot thoughts:
Green is a dang good player. In a perimeter league, he is an exceptional perimeter defender who can guard a variety of physical types. He's not going to take anyone to school, but you can't hide a defender on him for rest because he covers a ton of ground, goes through a lot of screens, and has to be covered out to three feet beyond the arc. He's worth 7mm-9mm, IMO. There is a caveat to that, which I will get to later on.

Healthy Splitter is a bargain at 10mm. His combination of passing, screening, and defense is surpassed by none and equaled by only two players in the league today.

One longshot (and I don't know how the euro contracts work so maybe it's not even possible) is that Adam Hanga, a 6'7 G/F eurostash, has come along nicely this year. He would give us a much needed dose of length and slashing ability at the 2/3. Depending on how far along he really is, he may even make Green more expendable.

Mills plays great defense against the right matchups and can run at 1 or 2 with the second unit. IMO, he's a second teamer all the way because there will almost always be someone you can put him on against second teams.

Route A is to more or less try to re-sign everyone. That means giving Danny Green around 7mm, trusting that CoJo will come back able to be the second-team PG for 5mm or so, and probably bringing Beli and Baynes back for a total of 7mm. We're at 78mm with this lineup:

PG: TP, Cojo, Mills
SG: Green, Beli, (Mills)
SF: Kawhi, (Green)
PF: Duncan, Diaw, (Kawhi)
C: Splitter, Baynes, (Duncan)

Deep bench: Anderson, probably Bonner (still fine as a vet min end-of-the-bench guy), randos

Now, that is a really good (but maybe not great) team provided everyone is healthy. What this does mean is that we're counting on TP and Splitter to regain championship form. Without TP scoring 15-18 ppg efficiently, we're going to be asking too much of Kawhi and Duncan again when the playoffs come around.

If the aforementioned Hanga (a good defender and long G/F) is added to the mix, there are no obvious holes in the roster.

The alternate route is to go for some turnover. Pop hinted (well, just plain said) that this would be the case.

Assuming that Kawhi and Duncan are staying, Parker + Green + Kawhi + Splitter + Duncan = around 55mm. That being the case, you kind of have to move some combination of Parker, Splitter, and Green to do anything meaningful and still have any kind of bench. We can play around with guys like Beli/CoJo/Baynes, but that's not where the money or trade power is.

I tried to put together some trade scenarios, but I'm no trade machine or cap guru so it's probably better for all of us if I don't try. That said, we're probably going to lose someone we would rather not. It may be a package to move up in the draft again, it may be a three way deal, and it will probably suck.



I just hope Duncan doesn't sign with Orlando.

No one, least of all Gregg Popovich, wanted to lose George Hill. Especially for some unknown rookie from a mid-major.

I'm just praying we can get a scoring big guy this offseason

I just can't see them moving TP. I can see them moving Splitter, Green, CoJo, or Mills either by trade or not resigning. The only one I want them to move is Splitter. Splitter is a perfect fit when healthy, but will he continue to be a perfect fit when Duncan retires? I just don't know, but I feel like the answer will be no. He doesn't do enough to make up for TD, so to me, that means we need to go after a big.

Obviously TD is staying put if he decides to keep playing, so that makes Splitter the odd man out. I also can't see too many scenarios where we keep Danny, and that makes me pretty sad. Him and Kawhi together are amazing defensively, and like CoJo, he's a guy we've seen go from the bottom to a very good contributor. I feel like we would need to go after someone here, either through trade or Eurostash, because we can't have Beli starting with TP, the defensive liability will be off the charts.

Spurs have pick #26 as well. Could elect to package it in a S&T or try and fill a need through the draft.

I wouldn't mind trying to do a S&T with Portland involving a package around Aldridge and Splitter. Portland had interest in signing him, actually giving him an offer sheet back when Tiago was a FA and I doubt they would rather lose Aldridge for nothing. Bring back Diaw/Baynes and add a big in the drat (Kaminsky maybe) or a veteran free agent.

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I wouldn't mind trying to do a S&T with Portland involving a package around Aldridge and Splitter. Portland had interest in signing him, actually giving him an offer sheet back when Tiago was a FA and I doubt they would rather lose Aldridge for nothing. Bring back Diaw/Baynes and add a big in the drat (Kaminsky maybe) or a veteran free agent.

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To me that's an ideal scenario, though I don't know about Kaminsky. I love the guy as a college player, but just don't know if it all would translate to the pros. As in, I would be concerned if he's peaked already and his success in college was due to being older going against freshmen and sophomores.

That could be a totally invalid concern though. I'm no draft expert. I wonder if it would work out for us at our position to try and find a PG that could eventually take over for Parker. I would rather that than overpaying or reaching for a FA PG.

I really doubt Portland will do a sign and trade with the Spurs with their best player. Even if Aldridge threatens to walk if they don't make the trade happen, I think it is worth more to Portland to not allow him to go to the Spurs than it is to get back an average player of Splitter's caliber.

I agree that a sign and trade to move Splitter while bringing back Aldridge or Gasol is the best case scenario. I just doubt the other teams will go for it. Getting either of these players would extend the Spurs championship window at least 6-7 years and you know our west competition doesn't want that

Again, I know the Spurs are loyal and won't go for it, but if the dream scenarios highlighted above for LA or Gasol don't work and if we can't outright sign a Millsap or D Jordan. I wouldn't mind moving Splitter and Parker to the Mavs for a sign and trade for Monta Ellis and Tyson Chandler. That would likely free up enough cash to resign Green or go after Middleton or another player to shore up the 2 guard position and finally try to move up in the draft to get a PG of the future, while Ellis and Mills and maybe a vet min Manu holds serve at PG for the next couple years while we try to develop a young PG.

I should clarify that when I say a trade will suck, it will suck in terms of having to see a player we like leave. It will probably be good for the team in the long run.

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I really doubt Portland will do a sign and trade with the Spurs with their best player.

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Why not? Cleveland traded Bron and then Miami traded him back.

If LMA tells them "I'm either going to take the max from Dallas or you can S&T me to SA for Tiago and a 1st" what do you think Portland chooses to do?

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I really doubt Portland will do a sign and trade with the Spurs with their best player.

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Why not? Cleveland traded Bron and then Miami traded him back.

If LMA tells them "I'm either going to take the max from Dallas or you can S&T me to SA for Tiago and a 1st" what do you think Portland chooses to do?

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I honestly don't know. They want to win it all and might honestly feel better about their chances with him in Dallas than San Antonio and might view Splitter as overpaid and would rather spend that $10 million elsewhere.

I agree in theory something is better than nothing, but it isn't that simple in reality. They will have to deal with a LA and KL combo for the forseeable future and get to pay splitter $10 million! What a deal. I think Splitter is more valuable to the Spurs than most teams and that's why we slightly overpaid him. I'm not sure the Blazers would be thrilled about taking back that contract.

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I really doubt Portland will do a sign and trade with the Spurs with their best player. Even if Aldridge threatens to walk if they don't make the trade happen, I think it is worth more to Portland to not allow him to go to the Spurs than it is to get back an average player of Splitter's caliber.

I agree that a sign and trade to move Splitter while bringing back Aldridge or Gasol is the best case scenario. I just doubt the other teams will go for it. Getting either of these players would extend the Spurs championship window at least 6-7 years and you know our west competition doesn't want that

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Mostly agree with this. I actually think we have a miniscule chance of pulling a Green+Splitter for Gasol deal, just because having a shooter of Danny's caliber would really help Conley and Randolph offensively, while Splitter provides very similar position defense (but not as good mano-y-mano against the strongest low post players) and DG is also an elite perimeter defender. After all those justifications though, it's still really unlikely that Memphis would give up a great player for two good ones.

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Again, I know the Spurs are loyal and won't go for it, but if the dream scenarios highlighted above for LA or Gasol don't work and if we can't outright sign a Millsap or D Jordan. I wouldn't mind moving Splitter and Parker to the Mavs for a sign and trade for Monta Ellis and Tyson Chandler. That would likely free up enough cash to resign Green or go after Middleton or another player to shore up the 2 guard position and finally try to move up in the draft to get a PG of the future, while Ellis and Mills and maybe a vet min Manu holds serve at PG for the next couple years while we try to develop a young PG.

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Splitter and Parker for Ellis and Chandler is a clear downgrade. That would be a very bad trade. If Parker will never get healthy again, then it is only a kind of bad trade.

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might view Splitter as overpaid and would rather spend that $10 million elsewhere.

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Splitter is only owed a little less than 17mm over the next two seasons. Completely reasonable contract for a starting center/pf. And he has that contract because Portland offered it to him and SA matched to keep him.

Getting Splitter and maybe a couple firsts to go with a big trade exception is much better than just losing your best player for absolutely nothing. That trade exception could come in very handy.

It is a major downgrade over a healthy Parker and 2014 Splitter, but is an upgrade over 2015 playoffs Splitter and especially Parker. Again, were Parker and Splitter just injured and form will be regained or is their some real degradation of skills? That is the big question. Parker is owed something like 45 million in coming years and we need solid PG play if we want to make another run.

Plus Splitter has always shown up small against real bigs. With the Clips bigs entering their prime, with the rockets and Griz having solid bigs and with OKC already giving Splitter problems, I just don't think he is the long term answer.

Plus if this move would allow money to be freed up to resign Green or get a young guy like Middleton then I think you consider it.

Basically, if we strike out on LA or Gasol then we pretty much have to move Splitter, Parker or let Green walk or we are just bringing back the exact same team, with no change. Our problem yet again will be PG play and Splitter. I feel like Duncan has a year or two left and we have to try to get him one more. I just think it is wishful thinking to expect Parker to ever get back to elite status and I think Splitter has peaked and is nothing more than an average big, that is pretty good in pick and roll against equal or smaller players.

I hope you are right and agree that should be our very first offer. I just hope LA wants to move home and that the Blazers go for it.

I just am not sure the Blazers would even view him as starter. I'm not convinced he would start on any west conf playoff team besides the Spurs.

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I actually think we have a miniscule chance of pulling a Green+Splitter for Gasol deal, just because having a shooter of Danny's caliber would really help Conley and Randolph offensively

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Except Memphis has two years left on Tony Allen at 5mm/year. Doubt they want another SG stopper that can't create offense for 1.5-2x as much per year.

This is a quick review of where Splitter's value is in the west outside of the Spurs. Here are the bigs that each playoff team (plus OKC) has at their disposal:

GS - Bogut and Green (David Lee is on the team but doesn't play, wholesale small ball here)

Griz - Gasol and ZBo

Clips - Griffin and Jordan

Rockets - Howard and T Jones (J Smith off the bench)

Portland - L Aldridge and Lopez

OKC - Adams and Ibaka

Cans - Davis and Asik

If I try to look at this objectively and take emotion out of it, the only players I might take Splitter over on the above list would be maybe Asik and maybe D Lee (who doesn't play anyway). I would trade him for pretty much anyone else. I just don't know if his value is as high as we as Spurs fans want to make it out to be. He is an 8pt and 5 rebound guy this year and in his career, which is nothing special from a starting post. He also isn't that young at 30 and is starting to be a bit of an injury risk. For as good a defender as he is supposed to be, he struggles to rebound and play physical, especially against equal or bigger players. He is not a threat outside of point blank range and struggles with FTs. He is a solid passer but I tend to think some of that is taught and is due to the Spurs system and could be duplicated to a degree by another player.

And I hate to pile on Parker for all he had done over the years, but when you compare him to the primary ball handlers on the elite teams in the west: Paul, Lilliard, Curry, Westbrook, Conley, Harden (even though he isn't a PG) we have a problem. He is nowhere near the creator that the rest of those players represent now that he has lost his first step.

He is 32 years old with a ton of minutes and just came off a series where he went: 11 PPG on 36% shooting, 3.6 Apg and 1.6 TOs per game in 30 minutes. He is also a huge defensive liability, to the point where Paul torched us as did whoever Parker was guarding as Parker is too small to put on a 2 guard. His backup who had a dreadful season completely outplayed him.

Manu, who most here apparently think is done and who they want to retire no matter what had an 8 PPG on 35% shooting, had 4.6 APG and 2.0 TOs per game in only 18 minutes. Neither are good, but I would much rather bring Manu back at the vet minimum as a 3rd PG and in a backup SG role than bringing back post-season Parker for next year at his cost.

I trust the front office to make the tough call on how much is left in Parker's tank and how to strike that reasonable loyalty balance, but if y'all want Manu to take a hike, I'm not sure how you justify bringing Parker back without question.

Adams isn't better than Tiago and Enes Kanter is their guy going forward anyway. As good as Kanter is offensively, his defense is very poor. I'd take Tiago over Robin Lopez, too.

ZBo is starting to fall off. He is getting 15/8 in the playoffs on sub40% shooting. Combined with poor defense.

Last year Tiago was top ten in Defensive RPM. He was top 3 in opponents FG% at the rim. Better than Ibaka, Bogut, Noah and even Duncan.

Bottom line is if you can upgrade Tiago, you do it. If you can't, you have him for a very reasonable salary at 8mm/year for two more years. I'll take that over Parker's 15mm/year for the next 3 years at this point.

How much will DJ go for?

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How much will DJ go for?

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20mm/year or more.

For one, by many accounts, Parker has been hobbled all year while Manu was apparently healthy, minus one ankle sprain. Now, like GS has said, the injuries for Parker may be a symptom rather than the cause, but we don't know that for sure. He sure looked pretty good down the stretch before that Achilles tightened back up, but again, who knows why?

Two, there just isn't a great PG option available that won't require a lot of money that could be better spent other places, in my opinion. I don't see the point in bringing in a guy closer to the end of his prime vs the beginning that would be that much of an upgrade over a healthy TP (keyword obviously being healthy). Other than the Clips and Houston, every other team you listed (all being small market) has drafted their elite PG talent, I believe. I'm just not sure if this year the Spurs are in a place financially to pay for what they need at the PG position...they would just be getting a band-aid. While we all want to gear up for one more TD championship, the FO has to look a lot further out.

Manu is clearly done. Parker, no one probably knows but TP at this point. If you can hit on a young, good to elite PG by trading Parker, I think that's something that will be considered. But I also wouldn't hold my breath. I think he's in lifer status.

I agree with you that Parker should be shopped and the PG position needs to be addressed. I do think Splitters numbers are inflated on defense though due to playing with Duncan and Kawhi and the Spurs system. I feel the same about Green for that matter as far as his status as an elite defender. and elite 3 pt shooter. They are both more valuable in the Spurs system than they would be for most teams.

If Splitter would just rebound better and hit his FTs that would go along way, but that's probably just wishful thinking at this point as he is past 30.

If we had all these elite defenders that these advanced metrics show, then what happened against the Clips when we got absolutely torched by their offense. The same thing happened vs OKC last year with Splitter. It gets to the point where we can't even play him against good defenders with length.

I think the defensive game plan kind of skewed the numbers for the Spurs this series. All the switching created mismatches every single time down the floor which resulted in the Spurs giving up boat loads of points. Not sure that was the best defensive game plan we have come up with and I'm not sure it's not what lost us the series overall.

Danny Green is an elite defender on the perimeter. His game 7 showed that as well. Made numerous outstanding defensive plays. If he's not considered an elite perimeter defender I'm not sure who around the league is.

As far as Tiago goes, he was clearly not the same player this series. He obviously can't stay healthy and that should be taken into account this off-season. He has proven to be a great defender as well though.

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They are both more valuable in the Spurs system than they would be for most teams.

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Agree completely. But that is part of the beauty. I don't think that anyone you could plug into Splitter's spot would be happy to do the little things that don't get him any recognition. How many people really care how great he is at setting off-ball screens for Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard? He is a great passer and can get the ball to the right guy in stride, which greatly helps our long ball game.


What happened against the Clippers is that Tiago and Tony are both playing very hobbled. Tony was already not a great defender and Tiago just couldn't keep up. I feel like that is all pretty obvious to anyone who watches.

Our starters are simply not as good as Blake Griffin (playing the greatest series of his life), Chris Paul (playing the greatest series of his life), DeAndre Jordan (averaging 12/13/3 on 70% shooting) and very solid role players in Barnes/Reddick. Their first team is unquestionably greater than ours, especially when you consider that 40% of our first team was playing hurt.

The only reason we were able to make it such a great series is that our bench could kill their bench and keep us in it.

And I agree with all of that as well GS, but what's the solution if you keep Splitter?

If you don't move Splitter or Parker and just resign Green for market value, you are basically just bringing the same gang back a year later for one more run.

That isn't the worst plan if everyone stays healthy, but I do feel like it is limiting our chances with Duncan turning 40 and with the end near.

It also leaves us with a huge problem at PG if Parker is indeed starting the downhill slide and not having a creating PG may really limit Leonard's development.