****Western Conference Finals - Spurs vs. Thunder****

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BBQ4Me
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1:14p, 5/27/14
Interesting analysis of Spurs winning % as a function of the number of made 3-pointers by Green. This is not necessarily a causal relationship, but it's still compelling.



Source: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10988794/san-antonio-spurs-success-highly-dependent-danny-green-nba-playoffs?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_peltonspursgreen

[This message has been edited by UMichAg (edited 5/27/2014 12:15p).]
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DTP02
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1:15p, 5/27/14
quote:
quote:
Put your tin foil hats on now:

Referees for Game 4:
Joe Crawford
Mike Callahan
Jason Phillips


I thought Joey Crawford's reputation was that he favored road teams? This might be a good thing,


That is his reputation, that he will go out of his way a times to prove that he's not swayed by the home crowd.

quote:
Interesting analysis of Spurs winning % as a function of the number of made 3-pointers by Green. This is not necessarily a causal relationship, but it's still compelling.



Source: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10988794/san-antonio-spurs-success-highly-dependent-danny-green-nba-playoffs?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_peltonspursgreen

[This message has been edited by UMichAg (edited 5/27/2014 12:15p).]


I will buy the stat but it's probably not about what Green is doing so much as it means the Spurs are getting good penetration and ball movement. Green doesn't create his own shot, so if he is hitting threes it's because the Spurs offense is working.

[This message has been edited by DTP02 (edited 5/27/2014 12:24p).]
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GatorAg03
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1:26p, 5/27/14
No offense UMich, but that is about as worthless a chart as I have seen in a while. For example, the win % when Green hits two is about the same as when he hits zero, which indicates the Spurs still win at a high rate without him.

Of course when a role player scores 9+ points a game the Spurs are hard to beat, especially when those are wide open threes. I bet you could graph the same chart with Leonard, Ginoboli, Belenelli, Mills etc and get a similar trend.

If the Spurs are hitting their threes they are hard to beat period. Green just happens to be one of those three point shooters.

If I had to pick one player that I would want to play well for the Spurs to have a good chance to win, I think Green would come in around number 6 or 7.
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BBQ4Me
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1:30p, 5/27/14
When Joey Crawford refs a game:

Home team winning percentage in 2013-14 regular season: 48%
Home team winning percentage in 2013-14 playoffs: 36%

Home team winning percentage in 2012-13 regular season: 56%
Home team winning percentage in 2012-13 playoffs: 62%

Home team winning percentage in 2011-12 regular season: 49%
Home team winning percentage in 2011-12 playoffs: 79%


It's kinda crazy how variable he is, but that's likely a function of which games he's assigned to.

In 2013-14, the home team won 57% of the time during the regular season
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BBQ4Me
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1:32p, 5/27/14
quote:
No offense UMich, but that is about as worthless a chart as I have seen in a while. For example, the win % when Green hits two is about the same as when he hits zero, which indicates the Spurs still win at a high rate without him.


No offense taken as it's not my analysis or chart. However, I think you're wrong. From that article:
quote:
Including the playoffs, San Antonio has gone 10-7 (.588) when Green is held without a 3-pointer. But when Green has knocked down at least three 3-pointers, the Spurs have been almost unbeatable this season -- 24-1 (.960), including 4-0 in the playoffs with an average margin of victory of 24.3 points per game.



By the way, that chart is over the past 3 seasons.

[This message has been edited by UMichAg (edited 5/27/2014 12:33p).]
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GatorAg03
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1:37p, 5/27/14
I could very well be wrong. I guess I just don't go into the games hoping Danny Green shows up. I do hope we get open threes and hope we knock them down, but I just think of that as a team wide issue not a Green issue.

Green is a starter and probably gets the most three point attempts and most minutes out of the three point shooters (besides possibly Ginobolli in the playoffs) so perhaps the two are one in the same.
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Sher Thing
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1:56p, 5/27/14
Sometimes teams do a much better job defending Green than other times. If it's there than he will shoot it, it's pretty simple with him. You won't see him miss a bunch of wide open looks or something like that. They are either guarding him well or they aren't.

What Green brings defensively isn't measured in the box score though. He's a top 3 defender on the team and he needs minutes regardless if he's getting three point looks or not.
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Ulrich
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1:57p, 5/27/14
quote:
I could very well be wrong. I guess I just don't go into the games hoping Danny Green shows up. I do hope we get open threes and hope we knock them down, but I just think of that as a team wide issue not a Green issue.

It's very important at times. Green stretches the defense. Green being off his game was a huge factor in the 2012 WCF because it meant there was no repercussion for the Thunder when they jammed the lane to stop Parker.
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BBQ4Me
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1:58p, 5/27/14
Gator - I largely agree with that. I don't think Green is the primary catalyst for the offense as indicated by the large % of his 3s that are assisted. That analysis in the article doesn't tell you the direction of causality (Green success --> Spurs success VS Spurs success --> Green success). Still, if I'm Scott Brooks, I'm having my perimeter defenders stay close to Green and the other shooters

[This message has been edited by UMichAg (edited 5/27/2014 12:59p).]
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tmaggie50
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3:33p, 5/27/14
I dont think Spurs fans are any different than any other group of fans. Everyone notices the fouls when they are one sided.

With that said, I think games like that bring up the topic of other ways to improve or change the game to take out the BS.

I think having a panel of officials not at the game, while in theory makes sense, I can already gaurantee you that would have the conspiracy theorists exploding haha. Imagine tough calls going against your team and they are coming from a central NBA command center!

I do think a poster made a great point about the quality of play. Its always said that players just need to get to the line to get their shot back in that game. It shouldnt be a reward to drive the ball out of control and get bailed out with a foul (that goes for you too, MANU!)Maybe lowering the free throws to a 1and1 situation every time gets that done. Or the combination of that and lowering the foul out limit to 5. Not sure, but Ive always thought the NBA was pretty boring to watch and Ive been an avid Spurs fan since childhood. Hero ball will always be the way of the NBA though with the culture the NBA promotes and the fan base it plays towards.
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phatpat21
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5:29p, 5/27/14
The Spurs absolutely have to win tonight
They have to come out like they are the ones down 2-1
If this thing goes back to SA 2-2, I am not so sure the Spurs make it to the Finals
All that said, I think they come out strong and find a way to win tonight
The keys are turnovers, free throws and rebounding
GSG!!!
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Ulrich
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5:37p, 5/27/14
Turnovers and rebounding.
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phatpat21
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5:38p, 5/27/14
*Thunder FreeThrows
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Nom de Plume
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5:56p, 5/27/14
Will Parker compete tonight?
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Sher Thing
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6:29p, 5/27/14
I (and everyone else) watched the Spurs play Miami 7 times last year and its clearly evident that OKC gets a ton more calls and is much more reliant on free throws compared to Lebron and the Heat. That's where people tend to get upset and that's what people notice the most. The Thunder are one of the most free throw reliant teams in NBA history. Half of them are on jumpshots as well.

Last years NBA Finals was one of the best officiating series; if not the best officiated series I have seen and the Spurs lost. So it's not all homer here.
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Sher Thing
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6:31p, 5/27/14
The Spurs win tonight and the series is over. The Spurs lose and the pressure shifts back to SA.

The Thunder don't take control of the series until they win a road game though.


GSG!
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Isaih Smollett
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6:52p, 5/27/14
quote:
Will Parker compete tonight?


The answer to this question should tell us which team wins.
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Guitarsoup
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6:52p, 5/27/14
Parker is out for the rest of the playoffs. /Pop
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AggieBusDriver
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7:26p, 5/27/14
quote:
Parker is out for the rest of the playoffs. /Pop


I knew you were kidding but I had to look anyways. Ugh.
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Old Army Metal
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8:02p, 5/27/14
God, the Ibaka circlejerk is beginning already on TNT. Puke.
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Knife_Party
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8:07p, 5/27/14
I thought TNT was decent last year for their playoff coverage, but this year has been one big WTF. Shaq and Charles and crew are alright but everyobe else sucks. And Reggie Miller jesus christ shut the **** up.

[This message has been edited by Boneyendoplasm (edited 5/27/2014 7:07p).]
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TajMaballer
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8:13p, 5/27/14
The one good thing about the Rockets series was Chris Webber. He is fun and not annoying.
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Old Army Metal
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8:51p, 5/27/14
Will be listening on my Spurs app to Bill Schoening tonight.
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StillNotAnAggie
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9:01p, 5/27/14
Stolen from twitter.

Go Spurs Go.

[This message has been edited by stillnotanaggie (edited 5/27/2014 8:02p).]
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Brian Earl Spilner
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9:02p, 5/27/14
I want some nasty!!
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Ganondorf
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9:03p, 5/27/14
Game face!
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Brian Earl Spilner
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9:04p, 5/27/14
Tony Parquer

Parlez vous francais?
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Ganondorf
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9:06p, 5/27/14
Kawhi with 6 early.
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mAgnoliAg
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9:06p, 5/27/14
Duncan gets a very very favorable call
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Ganondorf
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9:08p, 5/27/14
quote:
Duncan gets a very very favorable call


When Perkins pushed him?

Didn't see the whole action.
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mAgnoliAg
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9:09p, 5/27/14
He made it look like Perkins pushed him
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Aggie_buster
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9:09p, 5/27/14
quote:
Duncan gets a very very favorable call


Maggie getting his trolling started early.
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West Texan
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9:09p, 5/27/14
Good sign for Tony and Kawhi to be hitting early after they shot piss poor last game. Reggie Jackson limping to the locker room after rolling an ankle.
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BigBrother
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9:10p, 5/27/14
Best defense I've seen Danny Green play this series.
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mAgnoliAg
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9:10p, 5/27/14
My names not Maggie
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