2024 StatSim: Texas A&M vs LSU
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Last: 1 yr ago by infinity ag
I'll allow it
World's worst proofreader
wow, now i am excited!!!!
I wanna see our defense pissed off, not confused, maybe a little murder in their hearts
Reload12, 11/4/11
So a pick'em
Finally!! Thank you sir. Stunningly close game. 12th Man had better show out. It'll definitely matter in this one.
I'm going to make a bold prediction that penalties don't actually go in LSU's favor for this game.
I'm curious how your formulas account for home vs away? Is there a constant in there that automatically gives home a 3 point bump, or is it built in on a deeper level within the home v away records and stats etc.
I guess it would be interesting to see what your data would show if we were at Death Valley at night
I guess it would be interesting to see what your data would show if we were at Death Valley at night
Only in the zoo can 2 completely different models show A&M winning and the self loathing declares a pick'em.aggiefan09 said:
So a pick'em
Not self loathing. Most who have followed Aggie football for a while know to be realistic about this type of game (or any game). We have a chance to win, but our secondary will have its hands full.AgLA06 said:Only in the zoo can 2 completely different models show A&M winning and the self loathing declares a pick'em.aggiefan09 said:
So a pick'em
More invalid historicism from another BAS analyst.
You may be through with the past, but the past may not be through with you...
Then you're saying you subjectively disagree with the models.NoahAg said:Not self loathing. Most who have followed Aggie football for a while know to be realistic about this type of game (or any game). We have a chance to win, but our secondary will have its hands full.AgLA06 said:Only in the zoo can 2 completely different models show A&M winning and the self loathing declares a pick'em.aggiefan09 said:
So a pick'em
Which are the only point of this thread and makes the self loathing worse.
LSU Tigers
Points: 24
Passing yards: 260
Rushing yards: 120
Total yards: 380
Turnovers: 1
Texas A&M Aggies
Points: 31
Passing yards: 240
Rushing yards: 180
Total yards: 420
Turnovers: 1
Points: 24
Passing yards: 260
Rushing yards: 120
Total yards: 380
Turnovers: 1
Texas A&M Aggies
Points: 31
Passing yards: 240
Rushing yards: 180
Total yards: 420
Turnovers: 1
Dang it Spreadsheet! You and your hope! Just when I was getting comfortable with expecting a loss.
†
Looks like special teams could be a deciding factor.
How do your stats account for the black uniforms? Is it an advantage or a disadvantage?
Thanks for doing this!
Maybe someday you should post your predictions and actual results per game. I'd love to see the data.
Maybe someday you should post your predictions and actual results per game. I'd love to see the data.
-TK
I was expecting more of a true pick em if not LSU being favored.
LETS GO
What would you give me if I go through all his posts and do it? Earliest ones I've found that actually open the spreadsheet image are in 2010.ColoAg95 said:
Thanks for doing this!
Maybe someday you should post your predictions and actual results per game. I'd love to see the data.
Didn't appreciate how well they have been able to throw the ball. No doubt a direct correlation to them not giving up sacks. We are going to have to disguise pressure and get to the QB. If we can't dial up pressure our secondary will have a long day, I'm afraid.
Ags win 27-21. Bond ends it with a 43 yard FG.
Ags win 27-21. Bond ends it with a 43 yard FG.
Magpie said:
More invalid historicism from another BAS analyst.
My bad. We'll win by 50.
Straight-up All-Time since joining the SEC: 40-8
In Conference Games since joining the SEC: 27-8
Misses:
I don't track lines all time, so I don't have the info to give ATS.
Since Arkansas 2023: 8-0 straight up
In Conference Games since joining the SEC: 27-8
Misses:
- 2012 - Alabama Win (predicted 20-40 loss)
- 2013 - Auburn Loss (prediceted 42-31 win)
- 2014 - SC Win (predicted 32-44 loss)
- 2015 - Auburn Loss (predicted 38-22 win)
- 2016 - Ole Miss Loss (predicted 42-28 win)
- 2021 - Arkansas Loss (predicted 35-12 win)
- 2022 - UF Loss (predicted 31-23 win)
- 2022 - LSU Win (predicted 17-29 loss)
I don't track lines all time, so I don't have the info to give ATS.
Since Arkansas 2023: 8-0 straight up
Why only 35 conf games since joining the SEC? Do you not do this for every game?
Central Limit Theorem says 30+ sample size is normally distributed, so yeah, predictions are reliable and valid.
You may be through with the past, but the past may not be through with you...
We need good Weigman, sacks and loud Kyle
For that Auburn game in '13, A&M should've won. We got the shaft on several calls including the blatant horse collar on JFF. So that one shouldn't count against your conf record.
Goldie Wilson said:
Why only 35 conf games since joining the SEC? Do you not do this for every game?
No I've missed quite a few games and 1-2 entire seasons depending on my work schedule
Please make these sim scores come true
It's going to come down to a turnover or a made/missed FG, and who has the ball the last possession. Gotta love college football.
Morning bump.
This should at least set the expectation that it should be a very close game.
I can see something like 20-14 at halftime, and we survive the 2nd half 27-24
This should at least set the expectation that it should be a very close game.
I can see something like 20-14 at halftime, and we survive the 2nd half 27-24
More than any other game we have played this yr imo, turnover margin will be a key stat and it's almost always a key stat.
I feel like this will be a nail biter and Spreadsheet's prediction kinda supports that feeling.
I feel like this will be a nail biter and Spreadsheet's prediction kinda supports that feeling.
SpreadsheetAg said:
Straight-up All-Time since joining the SEC: 40-8
In Conference Games since joining the SEC: 27-8
Misses:
- 2012 - Alabama Win (predicted 20-40 loss)
- 2013 - Auburn Loss (prediceted 42-31 win)
- 2014 - SC Win (predicted 32-44 loss)
- 2015 - Auburn Loss (predicted 38-22 win)
- 2016 - Ole Miss Loss (predicted 42-28 win)
- 2021 - Arkansas Loss (predicted 35-12 win)
- 2022 - UF Loss (predicted 31-23 win)
- 2022 - LSU Win (predicted 17-29 loss)
I don't track lines all time, so I don't have the info to give ATS.
Since Arkansas 2023: 8-0 straight up
That is a really impressive record! I wonder if any of the talking heads are close at all? I bet not. Awesome work! Thank you!
Bro, do you use Machine Learning?
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