hate to say I told you guys so, but I have been on here for over 6 months saying look out for IMG! With their purchase of ISP, they now dwarf Learfield, and will always be able to offer tu more than Learfield can offer A&M. I said early on that A&M should be exploring a "new" conference, so they could separate themselves from tu over the long haul. I can see with great ease a "new" 12 member conference with Notre Dame anchoring the East (and getting the lions share), and tu anchoring the West (and getting the lions share).
Whatever 10 teams make up the rest of the conference, it will not be equal revenue sharing like the days of the the Pac 10 and Big 12. It is what I have had reservations about for the whole time if the 16 team model was not accepted, and the 12 team model stayed in place. The fact that BYU went independent was an indication, that in fact a "new" 4th power conference was in the future. This is why I have suggested a backup plan all along if the SEC jump does not become a reality.
For the pro SEC crowd, consider the following:
a) the 12 team model becomes the standard
b) the Pac 12 and B1G hold at 12
c) the SEC not adding a 13th (they would have no need)
d) tu and ND form a "new" conference, where they become the "jupiters" of said conference
e) the "brands" are consolidated;
B1G = 40% = tOSU, UM, PSU, UNL
NEW = 30% = ND, tu, OU
SEC = 20% = Bama, +1
PAC = 10% = U$C
f) the additive value of a 13th team is not enough to warrant the wealth dilution. This means that additive dollars do not exist.
I still think many do not understand that in realignment 1+1 = 3, and not 1+1=2 (as we normally think), and look at what has happened in the last round of realignment, by the major conferences, and how the deals made sense.
Big 10 (got 2 $$$$ values, and intangibles as well)
1) got UNL, a true top 10 "brand"
2) got CCG, and 2 MILLION + per school, per year in "new" money
Pac 10 (got 1 $$$$ value, and intangibles as well)
1) got CCG, and 2 MILLION + per school, per year in "new" money
picked up new markets in Utah and Colorado
finally got equal revenue, to compete with U$C.
SEC (got nothing)
As they already had a CCG, they already accrue the revenue stream to each member school.
What most of the jump to the SEC crowd never see long term, is that the SEC has no need to go past 12, BECAUSE they already have the CCG, and that low hanging fruit has already been plucked. It is not like the SEC can grab this fruit again, as wether they go to 13, 14, 15, or 16 - they get no added boost for doing so.
The IU (B10) and the UK (SEC) types do not get any added value, so are less likely to vote yes, if it means splitting the pie as they do now, or having to give up some of that pie! If Auburn wins the MNC, the other 11 teams in the conference get a slice of that pie. As you add teams that slice gets smaller and smaller as it spread the wealth out across more teams.
My question to the posters on here is if the 12 team model stays in place (and this is now very probable), how do you see A&M getting an SEC invite, and if there is no invite, what is the backup plan for A&M?