coupland boy said:
FTACo88-FDT24dad said:
What if the French don't fail to seize the opportunity to decimate the gridlocked German army as they were about to invade France. I seem to recall that at the time, the British and French had the opportunity to basically bomb and strafe the Germans as they were gridlocked and backed up for miles on the way into France. The French generals were advised of this moment by British intelligence and they simply refused to believe that it was true, passing on the opportunity.
If I have any of that wrong please correct me.
How many Japanese die if we invade or blockade vs. how many Japanese died in the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki? Don't the numbers support dropping the A-bombs as a way to actually save some Japanese and American lives?
Some accuse the US of generating those numbers after tjr fact to help justify the dropping of the bombs. I don't see how anyone could see what happened on Iwo Jima and Okinawa and not get a pretty high number. The folks on charge of the Japanese military clearly didn't care about and was in fact trying to make it as costly as possible toward the end.
That was, quite literally, Japan's entire strategy at that stage of the war - to force the U.S. to pay such a high price in blood that we would grant terms more lenient than those outlined in the Potsdam Declaration, which the Japanese government had publicly rejected.
I think the Japanese army had moved so many troops onto Kyushu by August of 1945 that they would have been at or near parity with the invasion troops had Olympic been launched. Granted, the American troops would have been far better supplied, with vastly superior firepower, but the Japanese would have been fighting from prepared defenses. President Truman and the U.S. Joint Chiefs were already, at the time the bombs were dropped, looking at alternatives to the Kyushu landings.
The Japanese had around 900,000 troops on Kyushu. The U.S. plan didn't call for the occupation of the whole island, just enough to support landings on Honshu near Tokyo, so killing all of them wouldn't have been necessary, but even if half of them were killed, you're talking 2-3 times the combined death tolls of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
That doesn't count the dead in the rest of what was left of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. The British were scheduled to launch Operation Zipper, the invasion of Malaya, in September 1945. In addition to further battle deaths from that fighting, it would have led to the massacre of all Allied POWs in that particular command area. Had that come to pass, and been publicly known, things would likely have gotten even uglier.
Even further, there were thousands and thousands of deaths of non-Japanese Asians - Chinese, Vietnamese, Malays, Indonesians - in Japanese occupied Asia every month. All of those lives were saved by the Bomb.
It's impossible to say how long it might have taken for continued bombing and blockade to bring the Japanese to surrender. As noted, the Brits would have gone ahead with the invasion of Malaya, and people would have continued to die in Japanese occupied Asia, in addition to unknowable numbers of Japanese who would have died from starvation and disease. Such a campaign would have also been politically very difficult - the war in Europe was won, and there would have been tremendous pressure to bring the boys home. Starving Japan into submission would have worked, but probably not on any sort of politically acceptable timeline.