Looks like tropical activity is finally picking up. We sure could use the rain.

Disorganized thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with an area of low pressure just offshore of the southern coast of Louisiana. Locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. Latest: https://t.co/NERCKMhgQU pic.twitter.com/lPktMGBF8J

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 12, 2022

Lots of good rain for us from that and now another potential system:

The models are starting to hint at a low pressure area moving
north from the Bay of Campeche late in the week. Marine convection
would increase locally as the potential disturbance neared the
Lower Texas Coast, but it is too early to say if additional
development might occur.

Good for the watershed. As always this time of year, this rain was a mixed bag for farmers. Some loved it and some hated it.

Duckhook said:

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Good for the watershed. As always this time of year, this rain was a mixed bag for farmers. Some loved it and some hated it.

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Yep. Drove past an unpicked cotton field on the way to work this morning and it looked pretty bad. Since whitewing season is coming up it will probably rain from now through mid-September. 2" at the casa from Saturday through this morning.

What is white wing season without 8 pounds of mud on each boot?

That is part of the South Texas hunting tradition!

Bay of Campeche.

Impacts to our region include:
-Locally heavy rain with 2 to 6" possible, which could lead to localized flooding.
-Winds gusting to tropical storm force, or 40 mph or higher.
-Minor coastal flooding.

Stay tuned for updates through the night & throughout the day Saturday.

— NWS Brownsville (@NWSBrownsville) August 20, 2022

Well that was a big tease. Thanks for nothing, 99L.

Booooo

False alarm.

Yep...

That is about the 4th or 5th time, in all my years of living in and out of the RGV, that something like this non-storm was predicted. All kinds of hubbub and angst, cities handing out sandbags, local TV scrolling warnings and radar. And then nada.

In the early 80's there was a storm tracking for the Valley, it ended up making landfall around Mezquital, not strong, but you woulda thunk the world was about to end. I remember many cancellations and school closings and other things and I wanna say that the entire valley ended up getting maybe a half inch of rain. It was about nothing. Around October of that same year, or maybe the next year, a depression formed just offshore of SPI and came ashore, and it was an odd deal in that it basically lingered along the coast as it gradually moved north. Nary a peep in the news about it. But Brownsville, PI, and SPI got a lotta rain, especially SPI and PI, and PM up the coast. SPI lost power for like 3 days and several places had water and rain damage. Nothing terrible, but damage enough and hardly anyone knew it was even going to remotely occur.

Same with the June 1st 88' storm that had 90 MPH winds on SPI, this was the one that took out the old Sea Ranch and several other older structures. But as it came from the North and West it was ignored. We all went to bed just like any other night, and dear Lord about 1:30am all hell broke loose, blew out windows in our trailer (I lived in the park then) and shook the deal like a washing machine. Same thing with the July rainstorm later that year that collapsed the Tienda Amigo. Not really much notice, and a lot of rain fell that day.

With Hurricane Gilbert, also in 88', my parents absolutely freaked out and packed up and went to Monterrey because the Valley was to be devastated. Not much for the RGV outta that storm really, but my parents got stuck in MTY for 3 days due to the flooding there, quite a spell without water or electricity, which in Mex is no fun.

It seems that local weather casters are salacious, for lack of a better word, instead of informative and truly predictive. Wish they would be a little more direct and less ominous, I think folks would take them a lot more seriously.

Ha! Was that posted yesterday? Funny.....

RGV AG said:

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Ha! Was that posted yesterday? Funny.....

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KRGV trying to distance themselves from the NWS since they use Accuweather. Models were never too excited about this potential storm but it really looked good for about a day before getting swamped by upper level winds and land effects.

You do feel for the NWS in that situation tho - they were trying to prepare everybody for the worst that didn't come close to happening. If they downplay something and the worst happens then they would be blamed for years instead of like in this case where people might complain for a day or two.

And I agree wtih you 100%, in general weather news constantly hypes for ratings. Absolutely true.

It's probably worse in places where it snows 2 or 3 times a year but it's the same phenomenon.

BTW - me and a couple of friends were in San Pedro Belize to learn to scuba dive last week and flew into this storm in a little 12 person puddle jumper.

And I'm guessing one of the storms you remember was 1980 Hurricane Allen. A really deadly MASSIVE Cat 5 at one time that ended up hitting the valley directly as a weakening Cat 2. Tons of hype with that one but it was really no big deal for the valley compared to what they were predicting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen

Quote:

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it was the fifth most intense Atlantic hurricane on record in terms of barometric pressure, behind Hurricane Rita, the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, Hurricane Gilbert, and Hurricane Wilma. It was one of the few hurricanes to reach Category 5 status on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Scale on three occasions, and spent more time as a Category 5 than all but two other Atlantic hurricanes. Allen is the only hurricane in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin to achieve sustained winds of 190 mph (305 km/h),[nb 1] thus making it the strongest Atlantic hurricane by wind speed. Until Hurricane Patricia in 2015, these were also the highest sustained winds in the Western Hemisphere.

At peak strength, it passed near Haiti, causing hundreds of deaths and heavy damage. After crossing the Gulf of Mexico, Allen weakened as it struck the lower Texas coast, causing high winds, a significant storm surge, and heavy rainfall, which caused damage to southern Texas. Overall, Allen killed at least 269 people and left $2.57 billion in damages (1980 US dollars), mostly within the United States and Haiti.

In the day prior to landfall, a dry air mass in the western Gulf of Mexico caused the storm to weaken substantially

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Quote:

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BTW - me and a couple of friends were in San Pedro Belize to learn to scuba dive last week and flew into this storm in a little 12 person puddle jumper.

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First time I ever flew into San Pedro, I had gone before but by the cheap boat ride across, around 93'-95' I flew out of the "locals" airport that you had to get to across town as it is, or was, about $40usd cheaper. It was in similar weather to what you flew in. Right as we were about close up and take off a guy from Maya Air comes up to the plane and starts talking to the co-pilot. Well apparently somebody with influence wanted their daughter to make what was the last flight of the day, so the co-pilot exited the plane and a girl about 8-10 years of holding a Barney doll that was bigger than her gets into the co-pilots seat. And before I could say "wait a minute" they closed the door and we start taxing. We made it, but I was all kinds of nervous.

Quote:

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And I'm guessing one of the storms you're remember was 1980 Hurricane Allen. A really deadly MASSIVE Cat 5 at one time that ended up hitting the valley directly as a weakening Cat 2. Tons of hype with that one but it was really no big deal for the valley compared to what they were predicting.

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You are right, Allen was a big, bad ugly looking storm. My Great Aunt & Uncle in Corpus were terrified of it, I remember that as I was with my American grandparent that summer.

Actually we didn't live in the RGV then, we were still in Mexico. We moved to the RGV around 82'. But my parents owned a condo in Port Aransas at that time and Allen put about a foot of sand in it, it was a ground floor unit, #103 at the Dunes Condos right by the Horace Caldwell pier. Allen destroyed that pier, well about half of it, and also Bob Hall pier. Condo was never truly the same after Allen.

When I remodeled my property in the fingers in PI, circa 2009, I took out all the dry wall. On one of the concrete walls were lines showing how high the water had come up from various storms. The foundations of my place were laid between 1955 and 1958 so there were marks for Gilbert, Allen, Beulah, and another storm (that I can't remember or couldn't read). The highest was Beulah, followed by Allen about 2" below. Gilbert hardly did anything.

I wanna say it was hurricane Barry in 83' that I was thinking about, and there was a big rain deal the next year in Sept. as well.

If anyone had the misfortune of watching the 12z GFS model roll in, the wave it blows up is now outlined by NHC. There are many reasons to think the GFS is incorrect as shown. But it may be the first area I'd say is worth legitimately watching all season. pic.twitter.com/Lf0yUYuiyp

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) August 23, 2022

PJYoung said:

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RGV AG said:

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Ha! Was that posted yesterday? Funny.....

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KRGV trying to distance themselves from the NWS since they use Accuweather. Models were never too excited about this potential storm but it really looked good for about a day before getting swamped by upper level winds and land effects.

You do feel for the NWS in that situation tho - they were trying to prepare everybody for the worst that didn't come close to happening. If they downplay something and the worst happens then they would be blamed for years instead of like in this case where people might complain for a day or two.

And I agree wtih you 100%, in general weather news constantly hypes for ratings. Absolutely true.

It's probably worse in places where it snows 2 or 3 times a year but it's the same phenomenon.

BTW - me and a couple of friends were in San Pedro Belize to learn to scuba dive last week and flew into this storm in a little 12 person puddle jumper.

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Flew out of BZE on Sunday the 14th after a week in Placencia. Maya Air flight into BZE had to make a couple of loops while waiting for a thunder-boomer over the airport to dissipate. Love those Caravans - pilots put them on autopilot for 95% of the flight. I've only been on one where there was an actual co-pilot. Every other time it's been one of my kids, my wife, myself or another passenger next to the pilot.

Yep, I know what you are talking about. Back in those days I think the copilot was more of a "local" thing, as almost all the pilots were Koreans that didn't speak real good English or Spanish. Things progressed rapidly for the more modern and better in Belize in the late 90's and early 00's.

I can only imagine what it was like 40/50 years ago, as my first times in Belize in the late 80's and early 90's were like going back 25 years or more in time. You could still order turtle in most of the restaurants in Belize City and Corozal back then, not to mention gibnet. Only time I ever ate turtle. I

My first time in Belize I crossed into Corozal right before the crossing closed, was supposed to be bus to Belize City right there, there wasn't. I traversed most of the night to get to the city and traveled roads that had a darkness I have never experienced anywhere else or since.

RGV AG said:

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Yep, I know what you are talking about. Back in those days I think the copilot was more of a "local" thing, as almost all the pilots were Koreans that didn't speak real good English or Spanish. Things progressed rapidly for the more modern and better in Belize in the late 90's and early 00's.

I can only imagine what it was like 40/50 years ago, as my first times in Belize in the late 80's and early 90's were like going back 25 years or more in time. You could still order turtle in most of the restaurants in Belize City and Corozal back then, not to mention gibnet. Only time I ever ate turtle. I

My first time in Belize I crossed into Corozal right before the crossing closed, was supposed to be bus to Belize City right there, there wasn't. I traversed most of the night to get to the city and traveled roads that had a darkness I have never experienced anywhere else or since.

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Yeah I thought of you when we were down there - I figured you had been many times.

And yeah, sometimes it's the little things that remind you you're in Central America but the 0% lighting of things like steps or roadways at night is a sure sign.

Watching the GFS weather model#TropicalUpdate

Need to address the GFS model output over past few days.

TS forms in NW Caribbean in 5-6 days and intensifies into powerful hurricane in Gulf of Mexico by next weekend.

It is plasuible, possible but certainly not guaranteed. pic.twitter.com/YnFPE8dRkZ

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 26, 2022

Liars, damn liars.... I have heard this many times before and nary a drop of rain. But it is the opening weekend of dove season so that portends mosquitos and rain for sure, plus nary a gust of wind

GFS is still consistently spitting out a hurricane around here this weekend but none of the other models are following.

Thanks for updating on that. Is anything being said locally yet? I haven't checked really. Tropical Tidbits hasn't had an update either. Curious on this deal for sure.

NHC gives it a 20% chance of developing in the next 5 days.

NWS Brownsville hasn't mentioned it yet in their long-term forecast discussion.

ECMWF 12z high-resolution model arrived w/stronger TS #1 (Invest 91L) at 5-days suggesting powerful hurricane later on like yesterday at 12z.

Still not developing Caribbean --> Gulf system like GFS. pic.twitter.com/a4Z5j50uxz

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 28, 2022

PJYoung said:

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NHC gives it a 20% chance of developing in the next 5 days.

NWS Brownsville hasn't mentioned it yet in their long-term forecast discussion.

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Ah Brownsville mentioned it tonight:

The weaker
pressure gradient pattern across the Northwest Caribbean and
Southwest Gulf of Mexico is always interesting during this time of
year and now is no different. The GFS has been an outlier model
recently and really wants to develop a tropical system in the
Northwest Caribbean later in the week. Once spun up, the GFS next
brings the system into the Southwest Gulf over next weekend. The
current NHC medium range forecast acknowledges that at least a low
pressure trough will form and move west in response to this GFS
theme, though other models are not also showing a strong signal
for a tropical feature.

A trough of low pressure could develop over the Northwest
Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental
conditions could then support slow development of the system while
it moves generally west-northwestward over the Northwest
Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. NHC
currently evaluates tropical cyclone formation chances Tuesday
through Thursday as low, about 20 percent.

Sure is getting interesting, of course I have to travel week so something odd will surely happen.

They have dropped any mention of it this morning and the GFS has pushed it out til Tuesday as a TS hitting 200 miles south of us. So I would be surprised if anything develops.