Ha, as per typical. I don't think they can come close to predicting this far out.

Might have some tropical fun in the Gulf of Mexico in a week or so

Updated ensemble modeling (ECMWF EPS 12z) from @weathermodels_ does show an uncomfortably high chance (> 50%) that this tropical wave becomes a hurricane w/Gulf of Mexico impacts. 🌀🛢️⛽️

Obviously, we don't want that, but it's the hand we've been dealt.🃏 pic.twitter.com/r4eVRN8Wve

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 19, 2022

Everything I've looked at says it will hit NE of here from the Texas/LA state line and east.

NOAA GFS 12 UTC weather model update develops a powerful hurricane in the Caribbean -- and moves into Gulf of Mexico.

Confidence is high (ensemble support) of Invest 98L into named tropical storm.

🚩We have NO confidence in impact details except the time frame: mid next week. pic.twitter.com/ouAfXPPNPo

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 20, 2022

Trending east to Florida's West coast.

Yeah, not too worried about it right now.

Area of disturbed tropical weather east of the Windward Islands likely to become a tropical storm in the Caribbean over the next few days.

Track after 5-days is uncertain but some models have indicated the system reaching the Gulf of Mexico while others go west in Cent Amer pic.twitter.com/1rAk8v2pty

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 21, 2022

If GFS is right, then this is what we're dealing with: major hurricane in eastern Gulf of Mexico w/impacts to FL panhandle.

But, all interests along Gulf Coast from Houston to Key West should monitor for next few days when we'll know more.

(GFS 06z @weathermodels_) pic.twitter.com/90zRxmRjNn

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 21, 2022

Just have to keep an eye on the track. If it stays south, then it could threaten the South Texas coast but I don't think we've had an impact from a hurricane that didn't travel over the Yucatan first (excludes Gulf-forming storms).

Dr. Levi Cowan says we should know by Sunday which fork it's gonna take.

He didn't even mention a far southernly track into Central America. He was talking about middle upper gulf coast or the west coast of Florida as the two forks.

#Ian is now a Category 2 #hurricane with max winds of 100 mph - the third Cat. 2+ hurricane to form in the Atlantic since September 7 (Earl & Fiona). 8 other years since 1950 have had 3+ Cat. 2 hurricane formations between 9/7-9/26: 1955, 1967, 1981, 2001, 2010, 2017, 2019, 2020. pic.twitter.com/APSpLgiX4w

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 26, 2022

PJ, you've got a voicemail.

Hurricane forecasts are nuanced and hard. The NHC does it better than anyone. This one posed unique challenges that unfortunately led to late game changes in a critically important landfall location. The onus is ultimately on residents/officials to appreciate these challenges. https://t.co/CfA2Jnv3zO

— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) September 28, 2022

They got the Florida landfall right. Are people beotching because they missed the direct location or something?

That 10/2 location might f-up my travel schedule. Flying out of RIC on Sunday.

Jim Cantore got hit by a flying tree branch during hurricane report pic.twitter.com/ybONC3VR51

— Gifdsports (@gifdsports) September 28, 2022

#LoÚltimo así luce una de las calles de Santo domingo Chontales #Nicaragua por #HurricaneJulia pic.twitter.com/VDFKO9V0K8

— 100%NOTICIAS (@100noticiasni) October 9, 2022

Spent 11 years in Nicaragua, and boy do I miss it. That country has 2 seasons; mud and dust. They are coming to the end of the mud season, will end about November 15th. It is amazing how predictable the weather is down there, dust season will be in full effect by late December and run through about May 15th.

I have seen plenty of gullywashers like that in Central America, but when the rains are heavy at toward the end of the mud season the ground is so very saturated that the water has nowhere to go.

A friend of mine has a farm about 20 miles Northwest of Managua, and I never believed her when she said that you could dig down about 8 to 10 feet and hit almost flowing water. We were out there one day and they were needed water for something and they rounded up about 10 guys and shoveling they did go. Sure as sheet, about 6 feed the mud started, about 7 feet mostly water and about 8-9' down gurgling water. I had never seen such a thing.

Water won't pool up in those areas, it runs somewhere or goes into the earth. You might have a 5" rain over night and by morning it looks like a small shower went through.

Where those countries trick screw themselves is in clearing land. The big lakes in Nicaragua have silted in something like 15 or 20 feet in the last 30 years or so all due to run off. Landslides and raging runoffs are a real deal down there.

This is #Karl.
Karl gets stuck as a tropical storm in the far Southwest Gulf.

Headed for land in Mexico over the next 48hrs pic.twitter.com/1xkituwsPK

— Shel Winkley (@KBTXShel) October 11, 2022