Updated ensemble modeling (ECMWF EPS 12z) from @weathermodels_ does show an uncomfortably high chance (> 50%) that this tropical wave becomes a hurricane w/Gulf of Mexico impacts. 🌀🛢️⛽️
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 19, 2022
Obviously, we don't want that, but it's the hand we've been dealt.🃏 pic.twitter.com/r4eVRN8Wve
NOAA GFS 12 UTC weather model update develops a powerful hurricane in the Caribbean -- and moves into Gulf of Mexico.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 20, 2022
Confidence is high (ensemble support) of Invest 98L into named tropical storm.
🚩We have NO confidence in impact details except the time frame: mid next week. pic.twitter.com/ouAfXPPNPo
Area of disturbed tropical weather east of the Windward Islands likely to become a tropical storm in the Caribbean over the next few days.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 21, 2022
Track after 5-days is uncertain but some models have indicated the system reaching the Gulf of Mexico while others go west in Cent Amer pic.twitter.com/1rAk8v2pty
If GFS is right, then this is what we're dealing with: major hurricane in eastern Gulf of Mexico w/impacts to FL panhandle.
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 21, 2022
But, all interests along Gulf Coast from Houston to Key West should monitor for next few days when we'll know more.
(GFS 06z @weathermodels_) pic.twitter.com/90zRxmRjNn
#Ian is now a Category 2 #hurricane with max winds of 100 mph - the third Cat. 2+ hurricane to form in the Atlantic since September 7 (Earl & Fiona). 8 other years since 1950 have had 3+ Cat. 2 hurricane formations between 9/7-9/26: 1955, 1967, 1981, 2001, 2010, 2017, 2019, 2020. pic.twitter.com/APSpLgiX4w
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 26, 2022
Hurricane forecasts are nuanced and hard. The NHC does it better than anyone. This one posed unique challenges that unfortunately led to late game changes in a critically important landfall location. The onus is ultimately on residents/officials to appreciate these challenges. https://t.co/CfA2Jnv3zO
— Matt Lanza (@mattlanza) September 28, 2022
Jim Cantore got hit by a flying tree branch during hurricane report pic.twitter.com/ybONC3VR51
— Gifdsports (@gifdsports) September 28, 2022
#LoÚltimo así luce una de las calles de Santo domingo Chontales #Nicaragua por #HurricaneJulia pic.twitter.com/VDFKO9V0K8
— 100%NOTICIAS (@100noticiasni) October 9, 2022
This is #Karl.
— Shel Winkley (@KBTXShel) October 11, 2022
Karl gets stuck as a tropical storm in the far Southwest Gulf.
Headed for land in Mexico over the next 48hrs pic.twitter.com/1xkituwsPK