PJYoung said:
NHC gives it a 20% chance of developing in the next 5 days.
NWS Brownsville hasn't mentioned it yet in their long-term forecast discussion.
Ah Brownsville mentioned it tonight:
The weaker
pressure gradient pattern across the Northwest Caribbean and
Southwest Gulf of Mexico is always interesting during this time of
year and now is no different. The GFS has been an outlier model
recently and really wants to develop a tropical system in the
Northwest Caribbean later in the week. Once spun up, the GFS next
brings the system into the Southwest Gulf over next weekend. The
current NHC medium range forecast acknowledges that at least a low
pressure trough will form and move west in response to this GFS
theme, though other models are not also showing a strong signal
for a tropical feature.
A trough of low pressure could develop over the Northwest
Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental
conditions could then support slow development of the system while
it moves generally west-northwestward over the Northwest
Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. NHC
currently evaluates tropical cyclone formation chances Tuesday
through Thursday as low, about 20 percent.