Yes, that storm spun up really quick and really strong like. I have no idea what it will do. Usually when they are in that position in the Gulf they tend to be either Corpus or just south of Corpus storms. But it seems like the last 10 years or so that hurricanes do weird things. I keep looking for the rain bands to show up on the Browntown radar, but nothing yet.

I wonder if it will pick up any speed, it seems that the faster they move in the Gulf the further north they roll. Deep STX, and the RGV need the rain, but the cotton farmers up in the Coastal Bend are going to get hammered according to SPI Flatscatter. This one was an odd deal for sure.

I just refreshed the Brownsville radar and it looks like the first rainbands now are showing. They are way offshore but pulling straight south it appears.

The noon update is going to be the real interesting one from the NHC.

Quote:

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000
WTNT64 KNHC 241657
TCUAT4

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE WITH 80-MPH WINDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Harvey has intensified to a hurricane, with maximum sustained
winds of 80 mph (130 km/h).

A Special Advisory will be issued by 1 PM CDT (1800 UTC) in lieu
of the intermediate advisory to update the intensity forecast.

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 93.5W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brennan

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Looking like the valley will miss the worst of it again.

Prayers to those north of us. Some of the model tracks look pretty horrific, stalling out and dumping rain for days as a strong hurricane. Gonna be a story thru Monday/Tuesday it sounds like.

McAllen decided NOT to distribute sandbags. One of the few valley cities that made that brave choice.

I hope you are right. The thing about these hurricanes is that very quickly and without a lot of predictive forewarning they can make 30-80 mile adjustments. The forecasters rarely can or will predict these and the RGV won't truly be out of harms way until this deal is to the north. I keep looking at the sat loop and I see these western jogs that it appears to make, but again I don't know much of anything.

At least the RGV will get some needed rainfall out of it, keep the grass fires a little subdued for a few months.

Yeah the eye is 225 miles to the S SE of SPI right now and should come as close as 80-100 miles tomorrow so they're gonna get sideswiped pretty good. Maybe gusts to 60-70 at worst hopefully. Nothing as bad as Dolly but I imagine the dunes will get eroded heavily. The vegetation they've grown in there will help tremendously. Something like 6-8 inches of rain.

I remember how bad of a hit Cat 3 Emily gave the dunes back in 2008 or whenever that was when it went in 150 miles to the south. We happened to be there for that one. I think the dune project might've started right after that.

McAllen shouldn't get more than 4 inches for the entire event so we should be good here.

967 mb at 4am and it's dropped to 952 at 6! Whoa.

Cruising by SPI, looks like it has been moving faster than predicted. SPI is just now getting a little wind. Very light rain for the valley so far.

Yeah, that is fairly impressive. If 50% of the forecast comes through it is going to be devastating. If even more happens it will be cataclysmic.

This would have been one storm best served having gone into the ranch land between Raymondville and Kingsville. But the population density where it is heading is very high.

60+ inches on one model. Hard to believe that we're hoping for half that lol. 30 inches is crazy.

Yeah man, this is going to be crazy. Can you imagine the mosquito problems in the Coastal Bend and Houston areas? There is going to be standing water through January or Feb of next year, and that is with 30". There might be complete highway washouts of major highways, like 59 and 77. I don't know if anyone has seen anything like this before.

I was once stuck in Cozumel for a TD that camped on the island for 36 hours, just like right on top of the Island, and it received 25" of rain in that period and it was bedlam for 3 days afterwards and that is because the water didn't have far to go to run off. I have never seen anything like that since, and if they get 30" or more inches of rain that is landscape changing flooding. Wow.

This is would be horrific. More than likely a version of this will happen as the Euro has been excellent with this storm (as usual).

Cat 3/4 hit tonight around Port O-Connor then a Houston hit as a cat 2 Wednesday night/Thursday.

Would be the first double hit from a hurricane in recorded Texas history.

From the same Euro model, 59 inch rainfall near Matagorda Bay. 50+ near there.

Yeah, that would be way over the top. I just can't imagine that for a late August storm. The way this storm has intensified has been shocking.

I tell you what the shrimping out of Texas is going to be the best in many years, when the water stirs up like this for some reason it makes for incredible shrimping and there will be lobsters and stuff too.

You some kinda Forrest Gump...out there on a shrimp boat right now?!?

It's shocking when the NWS starts to use this language:

Hahahaha, no. Sometimes I wish I was. I went shrimping one time, and that was enough. But I know a lot, well really used to know a lot shrimpers and always after a storm they do very well. For what precise reason I don't exactly know, but they. Immediately after some boats will about fill up in 10-15 days where as during normal times they will stay out 30-40 days.

Yes it really is. The thing about this deal is they, the forecasters and NWS, sure better not be exaggerating, as if the big and bad one ever does come folks will not take them seriously. There is already some of that train of thought in deep STX. I hope it doesn't get worse.

My b-in-law got his travel trailer out of Rockport yesterday.

This is intense! Not even the eyewall yet. A chaser dude I follow:

I'm following all of these dire predictions, but I'm looking at the radar too that shows that this storm has really tightened up today. Doesn't seem as near as big as it has over the last couple of days. I hope the forecasters are erring on the side of caution in warning of the long-term rain issues. Maybe that's just me hoping this because i have a couple of grown kids in the Houston area. Eyewall is about to come ashore just north of Rockport and it looks brutal.

Wow, this thing sure has turned into a bad deal. I am so sorry to see Rockport hit like this. That is one side of my families ancestral home, my family on one side had been in that area since the 1850's.

Still waiting for landfall. This storm really slowed as it approached the coast.

That one will probably be at least a cat 3 before landfall.

It's worth mentioning in the midst of Harvey fatigue that the models are jumping on a SW gulf development Monday of next week and bringing it right up the coast hitting around Houston as a Cat 1 or so. The GFS shows it dumping 36 hours of heavy rain on Houston.

Could get us instead - we will see.

The local weather is showing lots of rain here Sunday - Tuesday.

We will see.

I have been trying to follow the weather as much as possible, and I have seen some mentions of that possibility, but I just wonder how much of what is being put out there is scare casting at this point due to all the trauma from Houston?

I mean it would terrible insult on top of injury to have another big rainmaker go in around Houston. If they can catch 5-8 days of good drainage they would probably be able to take another 8-10 inches of rain without complete catastrophe, but if it gets there quickly it will be an issue. What I think might be good news is that it did not rain into the watersheds of all the rivers that run through and around the area way up stream, thus they should go down quickly. I saw some graphs this morning already showing some drops, get that damm water out into the bay.

For once I sure do hope that a system hits the RGV instead of somewhere else.

RGV AG said:

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I have been trying to follow the weather as much as possible, and I have seen some mentions of that possibility, but I just wonder how much of what is being put out there is scare casting at this point due to all the trauma from Houston?

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The models don't care about anything other than what the math spits out. The GFS was the one showing another horrible event for Houston although I can't imagine 36 hours of heavy rain dumping much more than 20 inches (then again Beaumont got 26 inches in 24 hours yesterday).

Unfortunately it's a possibility at this time. We'll know way more in a couple of days.

This morning's run of the GFS model shows 7am Tuesday September 5th



Runs it by Houston then taking a right turn along the Louisiana coast as a Cat 1

The Canadian model shows it going in around Tampico as a tropical storm at worst.

The Euro has it as a TD/TS SE of us moving E

This morning's Euro run has it as a cat 1 way south in the Bay of Campeche in 10 days. I assume that's good for us but not certain yet. Hurricane Irma would be a Cat 3 there aimed at Florida. Yikes.

Traditionally, or at least in old wives tales and what I have seen out fishing after a big storm, the water in the path of a hurricane tends to cool down a few degrees for a spell. Especially in an area so shallow as the Gulf of Campeche that does not get the circulation that other parts of the Gulf do, so maybe that will help things.

If those models are right it means some kind of tropical moisture for Texas in some fashion in about a week. A slow moving or stalled storm can easily drop 20-25" in a 24 hours period. I have experienced it once in Cozumel, and it was just over 30 inches in about 36 hours and thunder like I have never heard before or since, for 36 hours.

I sure as sheet hope this does not materialize. The bug situation in Houston is going to be a galactical problem for a long while unless it freezes in the winter. I mean for all of SE Texas. Saw a blurb on one of the sites saying estimates are that over 35,000 homes will have been destroyed and at least 1500-2000 commercial buildings. That is basically totaled, and does not include the damaged.

Of course. I am supposed to fly out of the DR on next Friday morning early, hahaha. If I am reading that right look where that thing is predicted to be on Thursday.

I have had some real doozy travel adventures due to storms in CentAm and now it is starting in the Caribbean. Too GD funny.

RGV AG said:

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Of course. I am supposed to fly out of the DR on next Friday morning early, hahaha. If I am reading that right look where that thing is predicted to be on Thursday.

I have had some real doozy travel adventures due to storms in CentAm and now it is starting in the Caribbean. Too GD funny.

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Yeah right now there's a bullseye on the DR for sure. Still a lot of time for things to change tho.