2017 Tropical Fun

7,807 Views | 122 Replies | Last: 6 yr ago by RGV AG
PJYoung
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AG
And the threat in the southern gulf is dropping off of the radar for now.
RGV AG
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That's cool. No need to risk anything else anywhere else in Texas that is for sure.

The industrial park I am in, in Haiti just called a pre-pre-Hurricane preparedness meeting for Irma. They take this stuff real serious due to the lack of infrastructure. Looking at that storm I see it going north and doubt it gets into the Gulf at the Latitude it is at, well at least based on History. But who knows.
PJYoung
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AG
yep it's looking better for Irma for sure although the Euro has it just off of the SE coast as a cat 5 or strong cat 4 in 10 days. That track takes it N of the DR but they would still get brushed for sure.



PJYoung
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AG
RGV AG
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You have to be Sheeting me. I am in the DR, and have to fly out of Santiago which is more north on the Island and I have to then fly to Newark, probably right over the GD Storm. Then I have to try to get to MFE. I am sure that tropical low will do something to creep up the coast to hamper my efforts. I am worried about getting of the DR, as I don't know these airports but at any truly inclement weather most LatAm airports will shutdown.

I wonder if anyone will pay attention to this deal down south.
PJYoung
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AG
Everything I've seen shows it going SE away from us or even just W into way southern Mexico. Hopefully that remains the case.
RGV AG
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I hope so, where are you seeing a SE drift or W drift? The NHC has it listed as drifting to the NW? You have all the scoop, I am a struggling to find info. Haha.
PJYoung
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I am talking about the raw models the past few days on tropicaltidbits. Still too early to say anything for certain other than it won't be any kind of dangerous storm if it came in here.
PJYoung
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Yeah NHC box is just a zone where they think it could develop and has nothing to do with movement. Everything I'm still seeing says it stays down there if it becomes a low.
RGV AG
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AG
I am looking at this hard and heavy, but it is still hard for me to find good info on it. Are you getting the info from Levi's site? Or where?
PJYoung
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Go to levis site and watch the models. The current GFS shows a low developing there on the 1am run and just going W into Mexico (and Irma basically destroying all of Florida). Ah maybe that was the euro i forget now. For the past week none of the models have had it coming up here. A previous GFS run yesterday developed it into a hurricane but kept it stationary and then sinking S.

A few days ago models that developed it had it going N then hard NE, never a threat to us. The overall pattern calls for a low to develop there but whether it does or not who knows.
carl spacklers hat
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Tropicaltidbits talked about the Bay of Campeche low in his latest post. In sum, Levi doesn't think it is going to develop into anything that will trouble south Texas or even the Texas Gulf Coast. As far as Irma is concerned, get a dart board to throw at the 10-day models. Whichever one you hit is as likely as the others to be correct at this point. It is just too far out to make any good predictions, especially with all the trough and ridge action going on. Nobody knows what's going to happen with any certainty more than 5 days out.
PJYoung
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AG
We went up with a local church group yesterday to help out in Aransas Pass. Wow. Those poor folks are going to be hurting for a while.
PJYoung
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AG
Tropical Depression 13 has developed to our south in the Bay of Campeche. It is forecast to stay south of us as it develops into Tropical Storm/possible Cat 1 Hurricane Katia

RGV AG
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Storms, storms, storms everywhere. Damm. Maybe the RGV will get some rain out of the one down south. Could surely use some.

I am still on the Haiti/DR border, most tracks have the storm running the coast north of her, kind of a glancing blow. We are about 30-40 inland near Cape Haiten, Haiti. The corporate office asked me to stay around to give some relief as it doesn't look terrible here.

I tell you what, I was in a part of Haiti today that looks like it would be wiped out with about 3" of rain, God help those people if they get a bunch of rain. Wind? Forget about it.
PJYoung
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I do not envy you stuck in Haiti with a Cat 4/5 bearing down. Good luck brotha!

Pressure drop from 926 to 920 in the last hour. Still strengthening!
PJYoung
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AG
PJYoung
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RGV AG
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Haha, looks like I skirted them both. Hell yeah! Thanks for all the info PJ, really appreciate it.
 
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