Monitoring a tropical disturbance near the Windward Islands. Conditions generally favorable for some development this next week while the system moves over the Caribbean. Too early to determine what impacts on the Mid TX Coast. More info: https://t.co/DaqPIW3QfH#txwx #stxwx pic.twitter.com/aUU0bYxqhv

— NWS Corpus Christi (@NWSCorpus) August 5, 2024

12z isn't nice to Houston.

AgLiving06 said:

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12z isn't nice to Houston.

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The GFS has been pretty inconsistent from run to run over whether that low even develops, and if so where it goes. Not saying it won't happen, but I would want to see more consistency from run to run before getting too worked up this far out. FWIW, the Euro and ICON don't show it developing at all in their most recent runs that look that far forward (00z).

For that model, how far our would that possibly put landfall somewhere on the gulf coast? Does that mean likely 7+ days before landfall somewhere on the mainland?

AJ02 said:

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For that model, how far our would that possibly put landfall somewhere on the gulf coast? Does that mean likely 7+ days before landfall somewhere on the mainland?

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The GFS 12Z is showing the storm making landfall around noon on Tuesday August 13th.

The Euro 12z run hasn't posted yet, but the 00z run (Euro only goes out that far every 12 hrs, instead of every 6 like the GFS) shows nothing in the gulf at all at noon on the 13th.

I'd be happy with the track. South Texas and Northern Mexico need rain.

txags92 said:

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AJ02 said:

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For that model, how far our would that possibly put landfall somewhere on the gulf coast? Does that mean likely 7+ days before landfall somewhere on the mainland?

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The GFS 12Z is showing the storm making landfall around noon on Tuesday August 13th.

The Euro 12z run hasn't posted yet, but the 00z run (Euro only goes out that far every 12 hrs, instead of every 6 like the GFS) shows nothing in the gulf at all at noon on the 13th.

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Hasn't the GFS been basically on again/off again with this, even within model runs only 6 hours apart?

As someone above said, if it consistently starts to predict it then maybe we should pay attention but doesn't seem like anything to worry about yet

gougler08 said:

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txags92 said:

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AJ02 said:

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For that model, how far our would that possibly put landfall somewhere on the gulf coast? Does that mean likely 7+ days before landfall somewhere on the mainland?

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The GFS 12Z is showing the storm making landfall around noon on Tuesday August 13th.

The Euro 12z run hasn't posted yet, but the 00z run (Euro only goes out that far every 12 hrs, instead of every 6 like the GFS) shows nothing in the gulf at all at noon on the 13th.

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Hasn't the GFS been basically on again/off again with this, even within model runs only 6 hours apart?

As someone above said, if it consistently starts to predict it then maybe we should pay attention but doesn't seem like anything to worry about yet

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Yes, that was me that said that. I was just answering his question about where the GFS was saying it would be and when, while still pointing out that the Euro doesn't show any development.

gougler08 said:

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txags92 said:

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AJ02 said:

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For that model, how far our would that possibly put landfall somewhere on the gulf coast? Does that mean likely 7+ days before landfall somewhere on the mainland?

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The GFS 12Z is showing the storm making landfall around noon on Tuesday August 13th.

The Euro 12z run hasn't posted yet, but the 00z run (Euro only goes out that far every 12 hrs, instead of every 6 like the GFS) shows nothing in the gulf at all at noon on the 13th.

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Hasn't the GFS been basically on again/off again with this, even within model runs only 6 hours apart?

As someone above said, if it consistently starts to predict it then maybe we should pay attention but doesn't seem like anything to worry about yet

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There's a couple GFS runs I've seen over the weekend that had it following right in Debbie's track. All over the board.

What's the best website for viewing model runs? There was one posted for Beryl where you could select the model and run time in a column on the left but I deleted the bookmark.

Ramrod said:

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gougler08 said:

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txags92 said:

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AJ02 said:

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For that model, how far our would that possibly put landfall somewhere on the gulf coast? Does that mean likely 7+ days before landfall somewhere on the mainland?

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The GFS 12Z is showing the storm making landfall around noon on Tuesday August 13th.

The Euro 12z run hasn't posted yet, but the 00z run (Euro only goes out that far every 12 hrs, instead of every 6 like the GFS) shows nothing in the gulf at all at noon on the 13th.

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Hasn't the GFS been basically on again/off again with this, even within model runs only 6 hours apart?

As someone above said, if it consistently starts to predict it then maybe we should pay attention but doesn't seem like anything to worry about yet

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There's a couple GFS runs I've seen over the weekend that had it following right in Debbie's track. All over the board.

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The image for 18z (noon) on 8/13 from the last 4 runs of the GFS. No consistency from run to run means low confidence.

8/5 12z


8/5 06z


8/5 00z


8/4 18z

txags92 said:

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AJ02 said:

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For that model, how far our would that possibly put landfall somewhere on the gulf coast? Does that mean likely 7+ days before landfall somewhere on the mainland?

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The GFS 12Z is showing the storm making landfall around noon on Tuesday August 13th.

The Euro 12z run hasn't posted yet, but the 00z run (Euro only goes out that far every 12 hrs, instead of every 6 like the GFS) shows nothing in the gulf at all at noon on the 13th.

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Gracias! Trying to gauge when I actually need to really start paying attention to it. Not worrying with it right now since it's so far out, but flying home from Detroit on Monday and was wondering if I needed to think about the potential storm impact on my flight back.

AJ02 said:

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txags92 said:

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AJ02 said:

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For that model, how far our would that possibly put landfall somewhere on the gulf coast? Does that mean likely 7+ days before landfall somewhere on the mainland?

---

The GFS 12Z is showing the storm making landfall around noon on Tuesday August 13th.

The Euro 12z run hasn't posted yet, but the 00z run (Euro only goes out that far every 12 hrs, instead of every 6 like the GFS) shows nothing in the gulf at all at noon on the 13th.

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Gracias! Trying to gauge when I actually need to really start paying attention to it. Not worrying with it right now since it's so far out, but flying home from Detroit on Monday and was wondering if I needed to think about the potential storm impact on my flight back.

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About 5 days out is when the models start to be pretty reliable as far as whether a storm is likely to develop, and 3 days out is when they typically have some idea of where it will be going. Seeing agreement between the Euro and GFS on a storm actually developing is usually the first step towards paying attention. Right now the Euro is not developing the storm that the GFS is showing.

If a storm does start to develop, watch Levi's videos on the home page at (Tropical Tidbits). He usually does one per day around mid to late afternoon when there are active storms potentially headed to the US. He walks you through what conditions affect development of the storm, what factors influence the track, and what the potential for strengthening is. When there is disagreement between the models, he will show what factors are causing the models to differ. They are usually less than 10 minutes in length and have zero hype, zero BS, just pure weather nerd. He is a PhD meteorologist that I believe works for the Pacific Typhoon Warning Center, so he knows what he is talking about

This is from the eyewall update this morning reagarding the southern wave:

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Model support for this one is not terribly strong. Odds of 30 percent seem very reasonable at this point. Yes, the GFS operational crashed a storm into Texas overnight, but it is quite the outlier right now, with little to no support from other models. One reason to expect that this system would continue to go west or west northwest is a large ridge of high pressure that's expected to establish over Texas this week and perhaps much of next week as well. The five day average for the weekend and next week (when the GFS shows the system making it to Texas) from the European ensemble shows a rather robust pattern of high pressure

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Agree. I'll live through some drought if it means less chance of losing my roof.

txags92 said:

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AJ02 said:

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txags92 said:

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AJ02 said:

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For that model, how far our would that possibly put landfall somewhere on the gulf coast? Does that mean likely 7+ days before landfall somewhere on the mainland?

---

The GFS 12Z is showing the storm making landfall around noon on Tuesday August 13th.

The Euro 12z run hasn't posted yet, but the 00z run (Euro only goes out that far every 12 hrs, instead of every 6 like the GFS) shows nothing in the gulf at all at noon on the 13th.

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Gracias! Trying to gauge when I actually need to really start paying attention to it. Not worrying with it right now since it's so far out, but flying home from Detroit on Monday and was wondering if I needed to think about the potential storm impact on my flight back.

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About 5 days out is when the models start to be pretty reliable as far as whether a storm is likely to develop, and 3 days out is when they typically have some idea of where it will be going.

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Exactly.

I've always said the safest place to be is the center of the 5 day forecast.

3 days out has become a pretty reliable indicator of where it's going but there are notable exceptions. The good part about that is if you listen or watch the longer forecast discussions you will be prepared for those surprises as well.

Cinco Ranch Aggie said:

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terradactylexpress said:

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Would be a lovely back to school gift from mother nature

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See, Summer, 1983, Hurricane Alicia.

I'd say that sucked, but having school start I believe a week after the storm got me out of the last of the clean-up duties during the day.

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Got me out of an orthodontist appt. At least for a couple of weeks…. But the payback was I had to help reroof the house a few weeks later.

Alicia....ugh!!! Took off about half of my roof and pretty much had to gut the interior. Was home in our two story house and was poking holes in the ceiling on the first floor to keep the ceiling from falling in and pouring rain onto the TV and other electronics. Not fun times.

CAR96 said:

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4:30pm ABC 13 meteorologists David Tillman thinks High pressure will be over us next week and will keep it well south…but will need to watch.

And hands down Levi Cowan Tropical Tidbits is the best in weather information on these storms.

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18z GFS is back to showing nothing.

txags92 said:

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AJ02 said:

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For that model, how far our would that possibly put landfall somewhere on the gulf coast? Does that mean likely 7+ days before landfall somewhere on the mainland?

---

The GFS 12Z is showing the storm making landfall around noon on Tuesday August 13th.

The Euro 12z run hasn't posted yet, but the 00z run (Euro only goes out that far every 12 hrs, instead of every 6 like the GFS) shows nothing in the gulf at all at noon on the 13th.

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We are closing on a new home on the 13th so that would be just lovely...

In the last four GFS runs:
One major storm hitting Galveston
One minor storm hitting Galveston
Two show nothing in the Gulf.
Don't lose any sleep over the GFS runs unless some of the other models are in agreement.

Cromagnum said:

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txags92 said:

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AJ02 said:

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For that model, how far our would that possibly put landfall somewhere on the gulf coast? Does that mean likely 7+ days before landfall somewhere on the mainland?

---

The GFS 12Z is showing the storm making landfall around noon on Tuesday August 13th.

The Euro 12z run hasn't posted yet, but the 00z run (Euro only goes out that far every 12 hrs, instead of every 6 like the GFS) shows nothing in the gulf at all at noon on the 13th.

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We are closing on a new home on the 13th so that would be just lovely...

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I would not be very worried. (Famous last words TM protected).

We're scheduled to leave on a cruise out of Galveston on August 12th. Excited to see how things progress over this week.

On vacation now and have Debby going over us now

Luckily don't think gonna mess us up too bad besides moving a flight back a day or two.

tamuags08 said:

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We're scheduled to leave on a cruise out of Galveston on August 12th. Excited to see how things progress over this week.

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Carnival?

tamuags08 said:

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maroon barchetta said:

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tamuags08 said:

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We're scheduled to leave on a cruise out of Galveston on August 12th. Excited to see how things progress over this week.

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Carnival?

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Yes. The "Greyhound of the Sea"

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Omg I snorted my water.