Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 30...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

Corrected typo in first paragraph

The center of Beryl has emerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico
just northwest of Progreso in the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface
observations and NOAA aircraft Tail Doppler Radar data indicate
that the storm has become significantly tilted with the low-level
center located to the southwest of the mid-level vortex, with most
of the showers and thunderstorms located closer to the mid-level
center. The latest flight-level wind data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft support lowering the initial intensity to
50 kt. The minimum pressure is now up to 996 mb.

Beryl has been moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt as the
system remains steered by a mid-level ridge located over the
southeastern U.S. This motion should continue through early
Saturday, After that time, a gradual turn to the northwest with a
decrease in forward speed is predicted as Beryl moves toward a
weakness in the ridge caused by a trough over the south-central U.S.
The models show a shortwave trough reinforcing the weakness late in
the weekend, which could cause a turn more toward the north just
before Beryl makes landfall. The latest guidance has again shifted
to the right and is a little faster than the previous cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those directions. The new
track forecast is very close to the latest GFS model prediction,
which has been the best performer for Beryl up to this point.

Since Beryl's structure has degraded significantly from its passage
over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to
recover. However, the overall environmental conditions are
conducive for strengthening with increasing water temperatures and
decreasing vertical wind shear along the expected track. In
addition, the global models are suggesting that the upper-level wind
pattern might become more diffluent before the system reaches the
coast, which could aid in the intensification process. Although the
global models are not particularly skillful in predicting the
maximum winds of a tropical cyclone, they do assess the
environmental factors well and the ECMWF and GFS models show
significant decreases in the system's minimum pressure over the next
couple of days. Based on these fundamental factors, the NHC
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the next day
or so, followed by more steady strengthening until Beryl makes
landfall. This forecast is similar to the previous one.

Based on the latest forecast, the Hurricane Watch has been extended
eastward along the Texas coast. It is important to note that the
average NHC track error at 60-72 hours is 80-100 miles and the
average intensity error is close to one category. Users are
reminded to consider these uncertainties when using the forecast
information.

With all the money being dumped into machine learning be interesting to see if somebody's model emerges as more accurate by a lot.

We should already be seeing that, right?

CAR96 said:

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Ok Herzog posted a facebook update showing track and Matagorda bay as the 10 pm update and said he's about to go on air so no explanation of the post. Said he will explain on tv.

I screenshot it…and a couple seconds later… its gone from his facebook page

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This is what shows up for me on his page

Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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With all the money being dumped into machine learning be interesting to see if somebody's model emerges as more accurate by a lot.

We should already be seeing that, right?

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All the AI models were way off from the recent storm we just had in the gulf. Well according to space city.

All the TV Mets are calling for a Cat 1 around Matagorda. Wonder if that will hold on path and strength.

Ok… it did appear back onto his page.

htxag09 said:

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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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With all the money being dumped into machine learning be interesting to see if somebody's model emerges as more accurate by a lot.

We should already be seeing that, right?

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All the AI models were way off from the recent storm we just had in the gulf. Well according to space city.

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In the NHC discussion PJYoung posted above, NHC is saying the GFS has performed the best on this storm so far.

Beat40 said:

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htxag09 said:

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Stat Monitor Repairman said:

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With all the money being dumped into machine learning be interesting to see if somebody's model emerges as more accurate by a lot.

We should already be seeing that, right?

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All the AI models were way off from the recent storm we just had in the gulf. Well according to space city.

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In the NHC discussion PJYoung posted above, NHC is saying the GFS has performed the best on this storm so far.

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Yeah, I guess I miss-understood the poster based on some of the previous AI comments. The models are absolutely getting better with more investments and more storms being studied with those investments.

But, my understanding, is the AI models aren't there yet…

It does appear to get moving once it comes ashore so that's good.

James Spann. The Legend.

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE ON BERYL: Tropical Storm Beryl is now in the Gulf of Mexico with winds of 60 mph.

Since Beryl's structure has degraded significantly from its passage over the Yucatan, it likely will take a little time for the storm to recover. However, the overall… pic.twitter.com/z139HbyvLW

— James Spann (@spann) July 6, 2024

Anti-taxxer said:

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No update from Space City yet? I'm sure Lanza is crying to all of his cats about how mean the internets is.

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He had an update on The Eyewall.

Seems like this thing could hit Venice, LA for all we know.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/060843.shtml?

4a discussion. Don't expect much intensification for another 24 hours or so.

As someone who has never lived through one of these, this sucks. The anticipation of it. We live on Aransas Bay so we are going to get storm surge no matter what that could possibly flood us. Main thing I'm worried about is loss of power because we are not prepared for that yet. Such the grasshopper right now.

Came close a couple of weeks ago from Alberto but no one really thought that was going to do anything until it did so wasn't even thinking about it. Buddy around the corner had his lower floor completely flooded and he's likely looking at that happening again just two weeks later.

Been an interesting one. Currently in Galveston, wonder if I should go top up on gas this morning

Reading that there is a lot of hand wringing and bed wetting over the Lake Livingston dam repairs not being near ready for a large amount of rain. Contractors are worried that a large amount of rain in and above the lake will cause the dam to edge closer to failure.

The forecast is for 6-12 inches of rain in the Livingston watershed area. Those below the dam better be prepared to move fast if the dam begins to buckle under this amount of water coming into the lake.

Expecting 6-8 inches of rain here in College Station on Monday. Rivers around us are at normal levels now so that's good.

So strange when TRA released an all-time record water discharge back in May. Way more than ever before because of spring rains between the lake and Dallas area. Wondering if that huge release contributed to the spillway erosion. Then TRA doubled down on all those flooded below the dam by saying they could have released much more if needed.

That looks more east of the NHC track

Our flight into IAH from Europe is scheduled to land on Monday at 1.35p. What are the odds that it will be cancelled?

I hope it actually holds that track. Would get some rain to the hill country. But i think it ends up further east and misses Austin and San Antonio for the most part if not entirely.

Have you checked online? My parents are flying in from Paris on Sunday, and so far, they are still on schedule.

Delpierro said:

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Our flight into IAH from Europe is scheduled to land on Monday at 1.35p. What are the odds that it will be cancelled?

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Yeah feels like a diversion and overnight layover is more likely than flat out canceling.

You could probably get a free change a day or two out and have to slum it in Europe a couple more days though...

Wouldn't expect much rain to the west of center on this one, but hopefully I'm wrong about that

7a update